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Futures Contracts (future + contract)
Kinds of Futures Contracts Selected AbstractsESTIMATING THE VALUE OF DELIVERY OPTIONS IN FUTURES CONTRACTSTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 3 2005Jana Hranaiova Abstract We analyze the effect various delivery options embedded in commodity futures contracts have on the futures price. The two embedded options considered are the timing and location options. We show that early delivery is always optimal when only a timing option is present, but not so when joint options are present. The estimates of the combined options are much smaller than the comparable estimates for the timing option alone. The average value of the joint option is about 5% of the average basis on the first day of the maturity month. This suggests that joint options can increase deliverable supplies while potentially having only a small effect on basis behavior. [source] Efficiency in the Pricing of the FTSE 100 Futures ContractEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2001Joëlle Miffre This paper studies the pricing efficiency in the FTSE 100 futures contract by linking the predictable movements in futures returns to the time-varying risk and risk premia associated with prespecified factors. The results indicate that the predictability of the FTSE 100 futures returns is consistent with a conditional multifactor model with time-varying moments. The dynamics of the factor risk premia, combined with the variation in the betas, capture most of the predictable variance of returns, leaving little variation to be explained in terms of market inefficiency. Hence the predictive power of the instruments does not justify a rejection of market efficiency. [source] Ex Ante Hedging Effectiveness of UK Stock Index Futures Contracts: Evidence for the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 ContractsEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2000Darren Butterworth Ex ante hedging effectiveness of the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 index futures contracts is examined for a range of portfolios, consisting of stock market indexes and professionally managed portfolios (investment trust companies). Previous studies which focused on ex post hedging performance using spot portfolios that mirror market indexes are shown to overstate the risk reduction potential of index futures. Although ex ante hedge ratios are found to be characterised by intertemporal instability, ex ante hedging performance of direct hedges and cross hedges approaches that of the ex post benchmark when hedge ratios are estimated using a sufficient window size. [source] Pricing of Forward and Futures ContractsJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 2 2000Ying-Foon Chow There has long been substantial interest in understanding the relative pricing of forward and futures contracts. This has led to the development of two standard theories of forward and futures pricing, namely, the Cost-of-Carry and the Risk Premium (or Unbiased Expectations) hypotheses. These studies have modelled the relationship between spot and forward/futures prices either through a no-arbitrage condition or a general equilibrium setting. Relatively few studies in this area have considered the impact of stochastic trends in the data. With the emergence of non-stationarity and cointegration in recent years, more sophisticated models of futures/forward prices have been specified. This paper surveys the significant contributions made to the literature on the pricing of forward/futures contracts, and examines recent empirical studies pertaining to the estimation and testing of univariate and systems models of futures pricing. [source] Stock Index Futures Prices and the Asian Financial Crisis,INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCE, Issue 3-4 2007TAUFIQ HASSAN ABSTRACT This study reports new findings on the behavior of index futures (FKLI: code name of Kuala Lumpur Index Futures contract) prices and also records the effect of a major financial crisis on the prices. Since the inception of trading in 1995, the FKLI has been selling at a discount, which gradually increased till early 1997; further, at the onset of the financial crisis in July 1997, FKLI prices were at a high premium relative to its theoretical values. This significant mispricing of the contract declined after the initial overreaction to the crisis. Herding behavior during crisis, liquidity constraint and imposition of trading restrictions are some plausible explanations for the mispricing. This study also investigates whether trades by foreign investors had any impact when compared with prices by domestic investors. We find that foreign investors had a negative influence on permanent price changes while the domestic investors had a positive effect. [source] Contract modifications and the basis behavior of live cattle futuresTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 6 2004James E. Newsome The purpose of this study was to assess the basis behavior of the Live Cattle Futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before and after the 1995 contract changes. Additionally, an alternative method of basis calculation utilizing weighted mean futures prices versus settlement futures prices was compared to determine which method provides a better representation of the basis level. Within a regression model with heteroskedascity error framework, we found that the level of nearby basis in the period after June 1995 has shifted lower and the average monthly open interest of net commercial long positions has substantially increased after the contract modifications. These empirical results are consistent with the notion that more long activity entered the market in response to the contract modifications. Additionally, an alternative (new) measure of basis calculation (cash price minus weighted mean futures price) produced similar results to two other commonly used measures. In conclusion, the 1995 contract changes have neither increased nor decreased the volatility of live cattle basis. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:557,590, 2004 [source] An analysis of the failed municipal bond and note futures contractsTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 7 2008Patrick J. CusatisArticle first published online: 2 MAY 200 This study analyzes the failure of the municipal bond and municipal note futures contracts. The municipal bond contract is shown to have been the most effective hedge in the municipal market over its tenure. Changes in volume in the municipal bond contract were closely related to changes in the volume in the U.S. Treasury bond futures contract, the spot,municipal-over-bonds (MOB) ratio, and visible supply. The failure of the municipal bond contract is mainly attributed to a decrease in trading volume in the U.S. Treasury futures market. This was impacted by the onset of electronic trading, which the municipal futures market was reluctant to embrace. The municipal note contract was a less effective hedge than U.S. Treasury note futures and ten-year London Interbank Offered Rate swaps. The failure of the municipal note futures contract is attributed to the existence of well-established alternative hedges, and segmentation in the municipal market. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:656,679, 2008 [source] Ex Ante Hedging Effectiveness of UK Stock Index Futures Contracts: Evidence for the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 ContractsEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2000Darren Butterworth Ex ante hedging effectiveness of the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 index futures contracts is examined for a range of portfolios, consisting of stock market indexes and professionally managed portfolios (investment trust companies). Previous studies which focused on ex post hedging performance using spot portfolios that mirror market indexes are shown to overstate the risk reduction potential of index futures. Although ex ante hedge ratios are found to be characterised by intertemporal instability, ex ante hedging performance of direct hedges and cross hedges approaches that of the ex post benchmark when hedge ratios are estimated using a sufficient window size. [source] "Marking-to-Market" and Treasury-Bill Futures Prices: Some Empirical EvidenceFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 1 2000Seungmook Choi G13 Abstract Financial economists have not found empirical evidence of a "marking-to-market" effect in Treasury-bill futures contracts, despite a firm theoretical basis for its existence. Therefore, we speculate that confounding effects, possibly due to liquidity preferences, influence futures-forward price spreads. By using an empirical specification that allows for both effects, we present empirical evidence that Treasury-bill futures-forward price spreads are sensitive to the volatility of the underlying commodity in ways predicted by the theory of the marking-to-market effect. [source] Optimal Hedging Ratios for Wheat and Barley at the LIFFE: A GARCH ApproachJOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2000P. J. Dawson Over 100,000 futures contracts for cereals are traded annually on the London International Financial Futures Exchange. The proportion of the spot position held as futures contracts - the hedging ratio - is critical to traders and traditional estimates, using OLS, are constant over time. In this paper, we estimate time-varying hedging ratios for wheat and barley contracts using a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. Results indicate that GARCH hedging ratios do change through time. Moreover, risk using the GARCH hedge is reduced significantly by around 4 per cent for wheat and 2 per cent for barley relative to the no hedge position, and significantly by around 0.2 per cent relative to the constant hedge. The optimal, expected utility-maximising, and the risk-minimising hedging ratios are equivalent. [source] Some Recent Developments in Futures HedgingJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 3 2002Donald Lien The use of futures contracts as a hedging instrument has been the focus of much research. At the theoretical level, an optimal hedge strategy is traditionally based on the expected,utility maximization paradigm. A simplification of this paradigm leads to the minimum,variance criterion. Although this paradigm is quite well accepted, alternative approaches have been sought. At the empirical level, research on futures hedging has benefited from the recent developments in the econometrics literature. Much research has been done on improving the estimation of the optimal hedge ratio. As more is known about the statistical properties of financial time series, more sophisticated estimation methods are proposed. In this survey we review some recent developments in futures hedging. We delineate the theoretical underpinning of various methods and discuss the econometric implementation of the methods. [source] Pricing of Forward and Futures ContractsJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 2 2000Ying-Foon Chow There has long been substantial interest in understanding the relative pricing of forward and futures contracts. This has led to the development of two standard theories of forward and futures pricing, namely, the Cost-of-Carry and the Risk Premium (or Unbiased Expectations) hypotheses. These studies have modelled the relationship between spot and forward/futures prices either through a no-arbitrage condition or a general equilibrium setting. Relatively few studies in this area have considered the impact of stochastic trends in the data. With the emergence of non-stationarity and cointegration in recent years, more sophisticated models of futures/forward prices have been specified. This paper surveys the significant contributions made to the literature on the pricing of forward/futures contracts, and examines recent empirical studies pertaining to the estimation and testing of univariate and systems models of futures pricing. [source] A fractal forecasting model for financial time seriesJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 8 2004Gordon R. Richards Abstract Financial market time series exhibit high degrees of non-linear variability, and frequently have fractal properties. When the fractal dimension of a time series is non-integer, this is associated with two features: (1) inhomogeneity,extreme fluctuations at irregular intervals, and (2) scaling symmetries,proportionality relationships between fluctuations over different separation distances. In multivariate systems such as financial markets, fractality is stochastic rather than deterministic, and generally originates as a result of multiplicative interactions. Volatility diffusion models with multiple stochastic factors can generate fractal structures. In some cases, such as exchange rates, the underlying structural equation also gives rise to fractality. Fractal principles can be used to develop forecasting algorithms. The forecasting method that yields the best results here is the state transition-fitted residual scale ratio (ST-FRSR) model. A state transition model is used to predict the conditional probability of extreme events. Ratios of rates of change at proximate separation distances are used to parameterize the scaling symmetries. Forecasting experiments are run using intraday exchange rate futures contracts measured at 15-minute intervals. The overall forecast error is reduced on average by up to 7% and in one instance by nearly a quarter. However, the forecast error during the outlying events is reduced by 39% to 57%. The ST-FRSR reduces the predictive error primarily by capturing extreme fluctuations more accurately. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] An introduction to the economics of natural gasOPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 1 2003Ferdinand E. Banks This paper is an up,to,date, but only moderately technical survey of the natural gas market. Supply, demand and pricing are discussed, and, in the light of the electricity deregulation experiment in California, where the expression "dangerous failure" has been repeatedly used to describe the extensive losses suffered by final consumers and utilities (or retailers), a modicum of attention is paid to the prospects for deregulating natural gas. Some microeconomics of the natural gas market is presented at a more elementary level than in my energy economics textbook (2000) or my book "The Political Economy of Natural Gas" (1987), and I make a studied attempt to avoid bringing the misleading Hotelling model (of exhaustible resource depletion) into the exposition. Finally, some comments on risk management with futures contracts are provided, and there is a brief mathematical appendix on futures, options and two,part pricing. [source] ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF DELIVERY OPTIONS IN FUTURES CONTRACTSTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 3 2005Jana Hranaiova Abstract We analyze the effect various delivery options embedded in commodity futures contracts have on the futures price. The two embedded options considered are the timing and location options. We show that early delivery is always optimal when only a timing option is present, but not so when joint options are present. The estimates of the combined options are much smaller than the comparable estimates for the timing option alone. The average value of the joint option is about 5% of the average basis on the first day of the maturity month. This suggests that joint options can increase deliverable supplies while potentially having only a small effect on basis behavior. [source] Exchange traded contracts for difference: Design, pricing, and effects,THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 12 2010Christine Brown Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are a significant financial innovation in the design of futures contracts. Over-the-counter trading in the UK is significant and has created controversy, but there is no published academic research into the design, pricing, and effects of CFDs. This study analyzes CFD contract design and pricing. It uses a unique database of trades and quotes on exchange traded equity CFDs introduced by the Australian Securities Exchange to test theoretical pricing relationships, and draws out implications for successful design and trading arrangements for the introduction of new derivative contracts. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark [source] Estimating financial risk measures for futures positions: A nonparametric approachTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 7 2010John Cotter This study presents nonparametric estimates of spectral risk measures (SRM) applied to long and short positions in five prominent equity futures contracts. It also compares these to estimates of two popular alternative measures, the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The SRMs are conditioned on the coefficient of absolute risk aversion, and the latter two are conditioned on the confidence level. Our findings indicate that all risk measures increase dramatically and their estimators deteriorate in precision when their respective conditioning parameter increases. Results also suggest that estimates of SRMs and their precision levels are of comparable orders of magnitude as those of more conventional risk measures. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:689,703, 2010 [source] Do volatility determinants vary across futures contracts?THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 3 2010Insights from a smoothed Bayesian estimator We apply a new Bayesian approach to multiple-contract futures data. It allows the volatility of futures prices to depend upon physical inventories and the contract's time to delivery,and it allows those parametric effects to vary over time. We investigate price movements for lumber contracts over a 13-year period and find a time-varying negative relationship between lumber inventories and lumber futures price volatility. The Bayesian approach leads to different conclusions regarding the size of the inventory effect than does the standard method of parametric restrictions across contracts. The inventory effect is smaller for the most recent contracts when the inventory levels are larger. In contrast, the Bayesian approach does not lead to substantively different conclusions about the time-to-delivery effect than do traditional classical methods. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:257,277, 2010 [source] Liquidity and hedging effectiveness under futures mispricing: International evidenceTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 11 2009A. Andani We analyze the hedging effectiveness of positions that replicate stock indexes using corresponding futures contracts through the application of a dynamic, stochastic hedging strategy proposed by Lafuente, J. A. and Novales, A. (2003). Conclusive gains do not emerge in any of the markets analyzed over the period considered, relative to the use of a constant unit hedge ratio. These findings are consistent with the trend observed in the IBEX 35 futures market study of Lafuente, J. A. and Novales, A. (2003). Our empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to what happens in less liquid markets, the discrepancy between theoretical and quoted prices in index futures contracts in fully developed markets does not represent a noise factor that can be successfully exploited for hedging. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1050,1066, 2009 [source] Minimum variance cross hedging under mean-reverting spreads, stochastic convenience yields, and jumps: Application to the airline industryTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 8 2009Mark Bertus Exchange traded futures contracts often are not written on the specific asset that is a source of risk to a firm. The firm may attempt to manage this risk using futures contracts written on a related asset. This cross hedge exposes the firm to a new risk, the spread between the asset underlying the futures contract and the asset that the firm wants to hedge. Using the specific case of the airline industry as motivation, we derive the minimum variance cross hedge assuming a two-factor diffusion model for the underlying asset and a stochastic, mean-reverting spread. The result is a time-varying hedge ratio that can be applied to any hedging horizon. We also consider the effect of jumps in the underlying asset. We use simulations and empirical tests of crude oil, jet fuel cross hedges to demonstrate the hedging effectiveness of the model. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:736,756, 2009 [source] Rolling over stock index futures contractsTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 7 2009Óscar Carchano Derivative contracts have a finite life limited by their maturity. The construction of continuous series, however, is crucial for academic and trading purposes. In this study, we analyze the relevance of the choice of the rollover date, defined as the point in time when we switch from the front contract series to the next one. We have used five different methodologies in order to construct five different return series of stock index futures contracts. The results show that, regardless of the criterion applied, there are not significant differences between the resultant series. Therefore, the least complex method can be used in order to reach the same conclusions. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:684,694, 2009 [source] Large trades and intraday futures price behaviorTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 12 2008Alex Frino This study examines the effects of large trades executed by outside customer on the prices of futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We find that, on average, large buyer-initiated trades have a larger permanent price impact (information effect) than large seller-initiated trades, whereas the opposite is found for the temporary price impact (liquidity effects) of large trades. These results are consistent with previous findings for block and institutional trades in equity markets. However, we also find that the information effects of large sells are larger than large buys in bearish markets, whereas the results are the reverse in bullish markets. The liquidity price effects of buys are larger than the liquidity price effects of sells in bearish markets whereas the reverse results hold in bullish markets. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the current economic condition is a key determinant of asymmetric price effects between large buys and large sells. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1147,1181, 2008 [source] The economic value of volatility transmission between the stock and bond marketsTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 11 2008Helena Chuliá This study has two main objectives. Firstly, volatility transmission between stocks and bonds in European markets is studied using the two most important financial assets in these fields: the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index futures contract and the Euro Bund futures contract. Secondly, a trading rule for the major European futures contracts is designed. This rule can be applied to different markets and assets to analyze the economic significance of volatility spillovers observed between them. The results indicate that volatility spillovers take place in both directions and that the stock-bond trading rule offers very profitable returns after transaction costs. These results have important implications for portfolio management and asset allocation. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1066,1094, 2008 [source] Realized volatility and correlation in energy futures marketsTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 10 2008Tao Wang Using high-frequency returns, realized volatility and correlation of the NYMEX light, sweet crude oil, and Henry-Hub natural gas futures contracts are examined. The unconditional distributions of daily returns and daily realized variances are non-Gaussian, whereas the distributions of the standardized returns (normalized by the realized standard deviation) and the (logarithms of) realized standard deviations appear approximately Gaussian. The (logarithms of) standard deviations exhibit long-memory, but the realized correlation between the two futures does not, implying rather weak inter-market linkage in the long run. There is evidence of asymmetric volatility for natural gas but not for crude oil futures. Finally, realized crude oil futures volatility responds with an increase in the weeks immediately before the OPEC events recommending price increases. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:993,1011, 2008 [source] An analysis of the failed municipal bond and note futures contractsTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 7 2008Patrick J. CusatisArticle first published online: 2 MAY 200 This study analyzes the failure of the municipal bond and municipal note futures contracts. The municipal bond contract is shown to have been the most effective hedge in the municipal market over its tenure. Changes in volume in the municipal bond contract were closely related to changes in the volume in the U.S. Treasury bond futures contract, the spot,municipal-over-bonds (MOB) ratio, and visible supply. The failure of the municipal bond contract is mainly attributed to a decrease in trading volume in the U.S. Treasury futures market. This was impacted by the onset of electronic trading, which the municipal futures market was reluctant to embrace. The municipal note contract was a less effective hedge than U.S. Treasury note futures and ten-year London Interbank Offered Rate swaps. The failure of the municipal note futures contract is attributed to the existence of well-established alternative hedges, and segmentation in the municipal market. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:656,679, 2008 [source] Efficiency of single-stock futures: An intraday analysisTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 6 2008Joseph K.W. Fung Using intraday bid,ask quotes of single-stock futures (SSFs) contracts and the underlying stocks, the pricing and informational efficiency of SSF traded on the Hong Kong Exchange are examined. Both the SSFs and the stocks are traded on electronic platforms. The market microstructure and the data obviate the problems of stale and non-executable prices as well as uncertain bid,ask bounce of the thinly traded futures contracts. Nominal price comparisons show that more than 80% of SSF quotes are inferior to stock quotes. More than 99% of the observed futures spreads are above one stock tick compared with only 2% of those for stocks. After adjusting for the cost-of-carry, however, SSFs are fairly priced. Given higher stock trading costs, non-members should even find the futures attractively priced. Thus, the absence of competitive market maker does not bias prices so as to discourage trading. SSF quotes also account for one-third of price discovery despite their low volume. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:518,536, 2008 [source] The stock closing calland futures price behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan futures marketTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 10 2007Hsiu-Chuan Lee This study examines the behavior of futures prices around stock market close before and after changes to the batching period of the stock closing call. On July 1, 2002, the Taiwan Stock Exchange expanded the length of the batching period roughly 10-fold, from an average of 30 seconds to 5 minutes. This change presents an opportunity to analyze how a stock closing method affects the behavior of index futures prices. Empirical results indicate that an increase in the length of the batching period affects the return volatility and trading volume of index futures contracts around stock market close. Furthermore, preclose stock returns have a great impact on extended futures returns when the batching period of the stock closing call is long. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:1003,1019, 2007 [source] Multifactor and analytical valuation of treasury bond futures with an embedded quality optionTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 3 2007João Pedro Vidal Nunes A closed-form pricing solution is proposed for the quality option embedded in Treasury bond futures contracts, under a multifactor and D. Heath, R. Jarrow, and A. Morton (1992) Gaussian framework. Such an analytical solution can be obtained through a conditioning approximation, in the sense of M. Curran (1994) and L. Rogers and Z. Shi (1995), or via a rank 1 approximation, following A. Brace and M. Musiela (1994). Monte Carlo simulations show that both approximations are extremely accurate and easy to calculate. Application of the proposed pricing model to the EUREX market from January 2000 through May 2004, yields an excellent fit and an insignificant estimate of the quality option magnitude. On average, this delivery option accounts for only of the futures prices. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:275,303, 2007 [source] An empirical analysis of the relationship between hedge ratio and hedging horizon using wavelet analysisTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 2 2007Donald Lien In this article, optimal hedge ratios are estimated for different hedging horizons for 23 different futures contracts using wavelet analysis. The wavelet analysis is chosen to avoid the sample reduction problem faced by the conventional methods when applied to non-overlapping return series. Hedging performance comparisons between the wavelet hedge ratio and error-correction (EC) hedge ratio indicate that the latter performs better for more contracts for shorter hedging horizons. However, the performance of the wavelet hedge ratio improves with the increase in the length of the hedging horizon. This is true for both within-sample and out-of-sample cases. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:127,150, 2007 [source] Intraday price-reversal patterns in the currency futures market: The impact of the introduction of GLOBEX and the euroTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 11 2006Joel Rentzler This article assesses the intraday price-reversal patterns of seven major currency futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange over 1988,2003 after 1-day returns and opening gaps. Significant intraday price-reversal patterns are observed in five of the seven currency futures contracts, following large price changes. Additional tests are conducted in three subperiods (1988,1992, 1993,1998, and 1999,2003) to examine the impact of the introduction of electronic trading on GLOBEX in 1992 (to assess how a near 24-hour trading session might impact the next-day opening and closing futures prices) and the introduction of the euro in 1999 (to assess its impact on price predictability in other futures markets). It is found that the introduction of the GLOBEX in 1992 significantly reduced pricing errors in currency futures in the second subperiod, making the currency futures markets fairly efficient. However, the introduction of the new currency, the euro, and the disappearance of several European currencies in 1999, resulted in significant price patterns (mostly reversals and some persistence) in most of the currency futures, indicating inefficiencies in the third subperiod. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1089,1130, 2006 [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||