Future Climate Conditions (future + climate_condition)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Distribution within Life Sciences

Selected Abstracts

Reconstructing the demise of Tethyan plants: climate-driven range dynamics of Laurus since the Pliocene

GLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2008
Francisco Rodríguez-Sánchez
ABSTRACT Aim Climate changes are thought to be responsible for the retreat and eventual extinction of subtropical lauroid species that covered much of Europe and North Africa during the Palaeogene and early Neogene; little is known, however, of the spatial and temporal patterns of this demise. Herein we calibrate ecological niche models to assess the climatic requirements of Laurus L. (Lauraceae), an emblematic relic from the Tethyan subtropical flora, subsequently using these models to infer how the range dynamics of Laurus were affected by Plio-Pleistocene climate changes. We also provide predictions of likely range changes resulting from future climatic scenarios. Location The Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands (Canaries, Madeira, Azores). Methods We used a maximum-entropy algorithm (Maxent) to model the relationship between climate and Laurus distribution over time. The models were fitted both to the present and to the middle Pliocene, based on fossil records. We employed climatic reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene (3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and a CO2 -doubling future scenario to project putative species distribution in each period. We validated the model projections with Laurus fossil and present occurrences. Results Laurus preferentially occupied warm and moist areas with low seasonality, showing a marked stasis of its climatic niche. Models fitted to Pliocene conditions successfully predicted the current species distribution. Large suitable areas existed during the Pliocene, which were strongly reduced during the Pleistocene, but humid refugia within the Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands enabled long-term persistence. Future climate conditions are likely to re-open areas suitable for colonization north of the current range. Main conclusions The climatic requirements of Laurus remained virtually unchanged over the last 3 Myr. This marked niche conservatism imposed largely deterministic range dynamics driven by climate conditions. This species's relatively high drought tolerance might account for the survival of Laurus in continental Europe throughout the Quaternary whilst other Lauraceae became extinct. Climatic scenarios for the end of this century would favour an expansion of the species's range towards northern latitudes, while severely limiting southern populations due to increased water stress. [source]

The Interplay between Climate Variability and Density Dependence in the Population Viability of Chinook Salmon

análisis de viabilidad poblacional; especies en peligro; Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Abstract:,The viability of populations is influenced by driving forces such as density dependence and climate variability, but most population viability analyses (PVAs) ignore these factors because of data limitations. Additionally, simplified PVAs produce limited measures of population viability such as annual population growth rate (,) or extinction risk. Here we developed a "mechanistic" PVA of threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in which, based on 40 years of detailed data, we related freshwater recruitment of juveniles to density of spawners, and third-year survival in the ocean to monthly indices of broad-scale ocean and climate conditions. Including climate variability in the model produced important effects: estimated population viability was very sensitive to assumptions of future climate conditions and the autocorrelation contained in the climate signal increased mean population abundance while increasing probability of quasi extinction. Because of the presence of density dependence in the model, however, we could not distinguish among alternative climate scenarios through mean , values, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple measures to elucidate population viability. Our sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the importance of particular parameters varied across models and depended on which viability measure was the response variable. The density-dependent parameter associated with freshwater recruitment was consistently the most important, regardless of viability measure, suggesting that increasing juvenile carrying capacity is important for recovery. Resumen:,La viabilidad de poblaciones esta influida por fuerzas conductoras como la denso dependencia y la variabilidad climática, pero la mayoría de los análisis de viabilidad poblacional (AVP) ignoran estos factores debido a limitaciones en la disponibilidad de datos. Adicionalmente, los AVP simplificados producen medidas limitadas de la viabilidad poblacional tales como la tasa anual de crecimiento poblacional (,) o el riesgo de extinción. Aquí desarrollamos un AVP "mecanicista" de Oncorhynchus tshawytscha en el que, con base en datos detallados de 40 años, relacionamos el reclutamiento de juveniles en agua dulce con la densidad de reproductores, y la supervivencia en el océano al tercer año con índices mensuales de condiciones oceánicas y climáticas a amplia escala. La inclusión de la variabilidad climática en el modelo produjo efectos importantes: la viabilidad poblacional estimada fue muy sensible a las suposiciones de condiciones climáticas futuras y la autocorrelación contenida en la señal climática aumentó la abundancia poblacional promedio al mismo tiempo que incrementó la probabilidad de cuasi extinción. Sin embargo, debido a la presencia de denso densidad en el modelo no pudimos distinguir entre escenarios climáticos alternativos a través de los valores promedio de ,, lo que enfatiza la importancia de considerar medidas múltiples para dilucidar la viabilidad poblacional. Nuestros análisis de sensibilidad demostraron que la importancia de parámetros particulares varió en los modelos y dependió de la medida de viabilidad utilizada como variable de respuesta. El parámetro de denso dependencia asociada con el reclutamiento en agua dulce consistentemente fue el más importante, independientemente de la medida de viabilidad, lo que sugiere que el incremento en la capacidad de carga de juveniles es importante para la recuperación. [source]

CO2 and nitrogen, but not population density, alter the size and C/N ratio of Phytolacca americana seeds

J.-S. HE
Summary 1Plants can provision seeds by optimizing seed size, number and nutrient content to maximize parental fitness. According to the McGinley,Charnov hypothesis, seed size should be determined by the ratio of carbon to nitrogen (C/N) available to the plant, with larger seed size correlating with larger C/N ratios and smaller absolute N content. 2This hypothesis was tested by establishing monocultures of Phytolacca americana L. (Phytolaccaceae) at three population densities under ambient and elevated CO2 environments, with two availabilities of soil N. 3Elevated CO2 reduced both seed size and N concentration while increasing the C/N ratio; high soil N availability produced the opposite result for N concentration and C/N ratio. Higher planting densities reduced plant biomass, but did not alter seed size. 4In accordance with the McGinley,Charnov hypothesis, larger seeds had both larger C/N ratios and smaller N content. However, the increase in C/N ratio caused by elevated CO2 corresponded with smaller seeds overall: elevated CO2 reduced seed size, although the seed size,C/N relationship remained positive. 5These results suggest an alternative mechanism to explain variation in seed size, and suggest that future climate conditions may alter seed quality and plant reproductive behaviour. [source]

Habitat shifts of endangered species under altered climate conditions: importance of biotic interactions

Abstract Predicting changes in potential habitat for endangered species as a result of global warming requires considering more than future climate conditions; it is also necessary to evaluate biotic associations. Most distribution models predicting species responses to climate change include climate variables and occasionally topographic and edaphic parameters, rarely are biotic interactions included. Here, we incorporate biotic interactions into niche models to predict suitable habitat for species under altered climates. We constructed and evaluated niche models for an endangered butterfly and a threatened bird species, both are habitat specialists restricted to semiarid shrublands of southern California. To incorporate their dependency on shrubs, we first developed climate-based niche models for shrubland vegetation and individual shrub species. We also developed models for the butterfly's larval host plants. Outputs from these models were included in the environmental variable dataset used to create butterfly and bird niche models. For both animal species, abiotic,biotic models outperformed the climate-only model, with climate-only models over-predicting suitable habitat under current climate conditions. We used the climate-only and abiotic,biotic models to calculate amounts of suitable habitat under altered climates and to evaluate species' sensitivities to climate change. We varied temperature (+0.6, +1.7, and +2.8 °C) and precipitation (50%, 90%, 100%, 110%, and 150%) relative to current climate averages and within ranges predicted by global climate change models. Suitable habitat for each species was reduced at all levels of temperature increase. Both species were sensitive to precipitation changes, particularly increases. Under altered climates, including biotic variables reduced habitat by 68,100% relative to the climate-only model. To design reserve systems conserving sensitive species under global warming, it is important to consider biotic interactions, particularly for habitat specialists and species with strong dependencies on other species. [source]

An assessment of temperature and precipitation change projections over Italy from recent global and regional climate model simulations

Erika Coppola
Abstract We present an assessment of climate change projections over the Italian peninsula for the 21st century from the CMIP3 global and PRUDENCE regional model experiments. We consider the A2, A1B, B2 and B1 emission scenarios. The climate change signal over Italy varies seasonally, with maximum warming in summer (up to several °C) and minimum in winter, decreased precipitation over the entire peninsula in summer (locally up to ,40%) and a dipolar precipitation change pattern in winter (increase to the north and decrease to the south). Inter-annual variability increases in all seasons for precipitation and in summer for temperature, while it decreases for winter temperature. The seasonal temperature anomaly probability density functions (PDFs) show a shift as well as a broadening and flattening in future climate conditions, especially in summer. This implies larger increases for extreme hot seasons than mean summer temperatures. The seasonal precipitation anomaly PDFs are greatly affected in summer, with a strong increase of very dry seasons. Moreover, seasons with large precipitation amounts tend to increase in future climate conditions, i.e. we find an increase of very dry (drought prone) and very wet (flood prone) seasons. The magnitude of future climate change depends on the emission scenario and the temperature and precipitation change signals show substantial fine-scale structure in response to the topographical forcing of the Italian major mountain systems. In addition, the change signal is greater than the inter-model standard deviation for temperature in all seasons and for precipitation in the summer. Finally, the CMIP3 ensemble captures the observed 20th century trends of temperature and precipitation change over northern Italy. A broad agreement between the projections obtained with the CMIP3 and PRUDENCE ensembles is found, which adds robustness to the findings. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source]