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Future Changes (future + change)
Selected AbstractsSocial Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate ChangeECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2003W. Neil Adger Abstract: Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate. [source] Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate ChangeINTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW, Issue 2 2004Brian C. O'Neill Summary Future changes in population size, composition, and spatial distribution are key factors in the analysis of climate change, and their future evolution is highly uncertain. In climate change analyses, population uncertainty has traditionally been accounted for by using alternative scenarios spanning a range of outcomes. This paper illustrates how conditional probabilistic projections offer a means of combining probabilistic approaches with the scenario-based approach typically employed in the development of greenhouse gas emissions projections. The illustration combines a set of emissions scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with existing probabilistic population projections from IIASA. Results demonstrate that conditional probabilistic projections have the potential to account more fully for uncertainty in emissions within conditional storylines about future development patterns, to provide a context for judging the consistency of individual scenarios with a given storyline, and to provide insight into relative likelihoods across storylines, at least from a demographic perspective. They may also serve as a step toward more comprehensive quantification of uncertainty in emissions projections. Résumé Les changements futurs dans la taille, la composition et la distribution spatiale de la population sont des facteurs cels dans l'analyse du changement climatique, et leur évolution future est très incertaine. Dans les analyses du changement climatique, on tient traditionnellement compte de l'incertitude sur la population en utilisant des sénarios alternatifs couvrant un éventail de résultats. Cet article illustre comment des projections à probabilité conditionnelle permettent de combiner les approches probabilistes avec l'approche basée sur des scénarios, typiquement employée dans les travaux de projections d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre. La présentation combine un ensemble de scénarios d'émissions développé par le Panel Intergouvernemental sur le changement climatique (IPCC) avec des projections de population probabilistes existantes de l'IIASA. Les résultats démontrent que les projections à probabilité conditionnelle peuvent expliquer plus complètement l'incertitude sur les émissions dans le cadre de scénarios conditionnels des modèles de développement futurs, qu'elles peuvent permettre de juger de la cohérence de scénarios individuels avec un scénario donné, et de fournir une idée des vraisemblances relatives dans les scénarios, au moins d'un point de vue démographique. Ils peuvent aussi servir d'étape vers une quantification plus précise de l'incertitude dans les projections d'émissions. [source] 84 Linking environmental forcing, kelp forest habitat dynamics, and community structure in the northeast pacificJOURNAL OF PHYCOLOGY, Issue 2003B.P. Kinlan Habitat-forming species of large brown macroalgae (e.g., kelps) often differ from associated benthic species in resource requirements, sources of disturbance, and dispersal ability. Differences in environmental drivers and demographic processes may cause these habitats to fluctuate at spatial and temporal scales that differ from the "optimal" scale that would promote maximum abundance of any particular associate species. As a result, the spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat may exert important effects on benthic community structure and composition. To quantify the spatial and temporal dynamics of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a key habitat-former in the NE Pacific, I analyzed a 34-year monthly time series of estimated canopy biomass spanning ,1500 km of coastline (7° of latitude) and digital maps of annual maximum canopy cover. Canopy biomass varied interannually at dominant periods of 4,5 y, 11,13 y and ,20 y, and spatial scales ranging from local (,30 km) to mesoscale (,100,150 km) and regional (,330 km). Temporal dynamics were strongly related to basin-scale climate fluctuations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and spatial patterns were correlated with coastline geomorphology. Digital canopy maps reveal that changes in biomass are associated with shifts in the spatial structure of the kelp habitat. Long-term subtidal community monitoring data from areas with markedly different spatial and temporal scales of kelp forest habitat structure reveal a complex but important influence of habitat dynamics on the distribution of life histories within kelp-associated communities. Future changes in the dynamics of Pacific climate fluctuations may have important implications for kelp forest community structure. [source] Climate change in the Arctic: using plant functional types in a meta-analysis of field experimentsFUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2002C. F. Dormann Summary 1,The effects of global climate change are predicted to be strongest in the Arctic. This, as well as the suitability of tundra as a simple model ecosystem, has led to many field experiments investigating consequences of simulated environmental change. 2,On the basis of 36 experiments reviewed here, minor light attenuation by clouds, small changes in precipitation, and increases in UV-B radiation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations will not affect arctic plants in the short term. However, temperature elevation, increases in nutrient availability and major decreases in light availability will cause an immediate plant-growth response and alter nutrient cycling, possibly creating positive feedbacks on plant biomass. The driver of future change in arctic vegetation is likely to be increased nutrient availability, arising for example from temperature-induced increases in mineralization. 3,Arctic plant species differ widely in their response to environmental manipulations. Classification into plant functional types proved largely unsatisfactory for generalization of responses and predictions of effects. 4,Nevertheless, a few generalizations and consistent differences between PFTs were detected. Responses to fertilization were the strongest, particularly in grasses. Shrubs and grasses were most responsive to elevated temperature. 5,Future studies should focus on interactive effects of environmental factors, investigate long-term responses to manipulations, and incorporate interactions with other trophic levels. With respect to plant functional types, a new approach is advocated, which groups species according to their responses to environmental manipulations. [source] Enabling regional management in a changing climate through Bayesian meta-analysis of a large-scale disturbanceGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010M Aaron MacNeil ABSTRACT Aim, Quantifying and predicting change in large ecosystems is an important research objective for applied ecologists as human disturbance effects become increasingly evident at regional and global scales. However, studies used to make inferences about large-scale change are frequently of uneven quality and few in number, having been undertaken to study local, rather than global, change. Our aim is to improve the quality of inferences that can be made in meta-analyses of large-scale disturbance by integrating studies of varying quality in a unified modelling framework that is informative for both local and regional management. Innovation, Here we improve conventionally structured meta-analysis methods by including imputation of unknown study variances and the use of Bayesian factor potentials. The approach is a coherent framework for integrating data of varying quality across multiple studies while facilitating belief statements about the uncertainty in parameter estimates and the probable outcome of future events. The approach is applied to a regional meta-analysis of the effects of loss of coral cover on species richness and the abundance of coral-dependent fishes in the western Indian Ocean (WIO) before and after a mass bleaching event in 1998. Main conclusions, Our Bayesian approach to meta-analysis provided greater precision of parameter estimates than conventional weighted linear regression meta-analytical techniques, allowing us to integrate all available data from 66 available study locations in the WIO across multiple scales. The approach thereby: (1) estimated uncertainty in site-level estimates of change, (2) provided a regional estimate for future change at any given site in the WIO, and (3) provided a probabilistic belief framework for future management of reef resources at both local and regional scales. [source] Telling stories from everyday practice, an opportunity to see a bigger picture: a participatory action research project about developing discharge planningHEALTH & SOCIAL CARE IN THE COMMUNITY, Issue 6 2009Pia Petersson RN Abstract In spite of laws, rules and routines, findings from Swedish as well as international research show that discharge planning is not a simple matter. There is considerable knowledge about discharge planning, but the quality of the actual process in practice remains poor. With this in mind, a research and developmental health and social care network decided to use participation action research to explore the discharge planning situation in order to generate new ideas for development. This paper reports on the research process and the findings about our enhanced understanding about the discharge planning situation. Story dialogue method was used. The method is based on stories from everyday practice. The stories are used as ,triggers' to ask probing questions in a dialogical and structured form. Local theory is developed to help the participants to find solutions for action in the practice. Our findings were that the discharge planning situation could be seen as a system including three interconnected areas: patient participation, practitioners' competence and organizational support. To reach good quality in discharge planning, all these three issues need to be developed, but not only as routines and forms. Rather, when developing a discharge planning situation, a system where relational aspects such as confidence and continuity are essential and thus needs to be considered. To achieve a change, the core problem needs to be clarified. When the issue is complex, the solution needs to consider the bigger picture and not just the parts. Telling stories from everyday practice, and to systematically reflect and analyse those in interprofessional groups can create opportunities for enhanced understanding, as well as be a vehicle for future change of practice. [source] Sensitivity of an Arctic regional climate model to the horizontal resolution during winter: implications for aerosol simulationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2005Eric Girard Abstract Our ability to properly simulate current climate and its future change depends upon the exactitude of the physical processes that are parameterized on the one hand, and on model configuration on the other hand. In this paper, we focus on the latter and investigate the effect of the horizontal grid resolution on the simulation of a month of January over the Arctic. A limited-area numerical climate model is used to simulate the month of January 1990 over a grid that includes the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Two grid resolutions are used: 50 km and 100 km. Results show that finer details appear for regional circulation, temperature, and humidity when increasing horizontal resolution. This is particularly true for continental and sea ice boundaries, which are much better resolved by high-resolution model simulations. The Canadian Archipelago and rivers in northern Russia appear to benefit the most from higher horizontal resolution. High-resolution simulations capture some frozen rivers and narrow straits between islands. Therefore, much colder surface air temperature is simulated over these areas. Precipitation is generally increased in those areas and over topography due to a better representation of surface heterogeneities when increasing resolution. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is substantially changed when horizontal resolution is increased. Feedback processes occur between surface air temperature change over heterogeneous surfaces and atmospheric circulation. High-resolution simulations develop a stronger polar vortex. The mean sea-level pressure increases over the western Arctic and Iceland and decreases over the eastern Arctic. This circulation leads to a substantial cooling of the eastern Arctic and enhanced synoptic activity over the Arctic associated with an intensification of the baroclinic zone. Aerosol mass loading, which is simulated explicitly in this model, is significantly altered by the grid resolution change with the largest differences in aerosol concentration over areas where precipitation and atmospheric circulation are the most affected. The implications of this sensitivity study to the evaluation of indirect radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols are discussed. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Understanding software maintenance and evolution by analyzing individual changes: a literature reviewJOURNAL OF SOFTWARE MAINTENANCE AND EVOLUTION: RESEARCH AND PRACTICE, Issue 6 2009Hans Christian Benestad Abstract Understanding, managing and reducing costs and risks inherent in change are key challenges of software maintenance and evolution, addressed in empirical studies with many different research approaches. Change-based studies analyze data that describes the individual changes made to software systems. This approach can be effective in order to discover cost and risk factors that are hidden at more aggregated levels. However, it is not trivial to derive appropriate measures of individual changes for specific measurement goals. The purpose of this review is to improve change-based studies by (1) summarizing how attributes of changes have been measured to reach specific study goals and (2) describing current achievements and challenges, leading to a guide for future change-based studies. Thirty-four papers conformed to the inclusion criteria. Forty-three attributes of changes were identified, and classified according to a conceptual model developed for the purpose of this classification. The goal of each study was to either characterize the evolution process, to assess causal factors of cost and risk, or to predict costs and risks. Effective accumulation of knowledge across change-based studies requires precise definitions of attributes and measures of change. We recommend that new change-based studies base such definitions on the proposed conceptual model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Change, Continuity, and the Evolution of the LawAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 2 2008Forrest Maltzman Congress regularly passes significant laws. Some of these laws continue in their initial form, with the original bargain struck by the enacting coalition untouched by any future laws; others are changed,strengthened or weakened,soon after passage. What accounts for this variation in the stability of laws, in the longevity of the original legislative agreement? We contend that political conditions at the time of enactment,in particular, the existence of divided government and the level of ideological disagreement between the House and Senate,influence the likelihood that a law will be amended. We demonstrate that laws originally crafted by diverse political coalitions are less durable than those crafted by strong, unified coalitions, which are in a position to entrench their preferred policies and protect them from future change. Furthermore, we show that the probability of a law being amended is affected by future political conditions, the actions of the judiciary, and factors specific to the law. [source] Depositional environments and chronology of Late Weichselian glaciation and deglaciation in the central North SeaBOREAS, Issue 3 2010ALASTAIR G. C. GRAHAM Graham, A.G.C., Lonergan, L. & Stoker, M.S. 2010: Depositional environments and chronology of Late Weichselian glaciation and deglaciation in the central North Sea. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 471,491. 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2010.00144.x. ISSN 0300-9483. Geological constraints on ice-sheet deglaciation are essential for improving the modelling of ice masses and understanding their potential for future change. Here, we present a detailed interpretation of depositional environments from a new 30-m-long borehole in the central North Sea, with the aim of improving constraints on the history of the marine Late Pleistocene British,Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. Seven units characterize a sequence of compacted and distorted glaciomarine diamictons, which are overlain by interbedded glaciomarine diamictons and soft, bedded to homogeneous marine muds. Through correlation of borehole and 2D/3D seismic observations, we identify three palaeoregimes. These are: a period of advance and ice-sheet overriding; a phase of deglaciation; and a phase of postglacial glaciomarine-to-marine sedimentation. Deformed subglacial sediments correlate with a buried suite of streamlined subglacial bedforms, and indicate overriding by the SE,NW-flowing Witch Ground ice stream. AMS 14C dating confirms ice-stream activity and extensive glaciation of the North Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum, between c. 30 and 16.2 14C ka BP. Sediments overlying the ice-compacted deposits have been reworked, but can be used to constrain initial deglaciation to no later than 16.2 14C ka BP. A re-advance of British ice during the last deglaciation, dated at 13.9 14C ka BP, delivered ice-proximal deposits to the core site and deposited glaciomarine sediments rapidly during the subsequent retreat. A transition to more temperate marine conditions is clear in lithostratigraphic and seismic records, marked by a regionally pervasive iceberg-ploughmarked erosion surface. The iceberg discharges that formed this horizon are dated to between 13.9 and 12 14C ka BP, and may correspond to oscillating ice-sheet margins during final, dynamic ice-sheet decay. [source] Trends in the state of nature and their implications for human well-beingECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 11 2005Andrew Balmford Abstract Two major international initiatives , the Convention on Biological Diversity's target to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment , raise the profile of ecological data on the changing state of nature and its implications for human well-being. This paper is intended to provide a broad overview of current knowledge of these issues. Information on changes in the status of species, size of populations, and extent and condition of habitats is patchy, with little data available for many of the taxa, regions and habitats of greatest importance to the delivery of ecosystem services. However, what we do know strongly suggests that, while exceptions exist, the changes currently underway are for the most part negative, anthropogenic in origin, ominously large and accelerating. The impacts of these changes on human society are idiosyncratic and patchily understood, but for the most part also appear to be negative and substantial. Forecasting future changes is limited by our poor understanding of the cascading impacts of change within communities, of threshold effects, of interactions between the drivers of change, and of linkages between the state of nature and human well-being. In assessing future science needs, we not only see a strong role for ecological data and theory, but also believe that much closer collaboration with social and earth system scientists is essential if ecology is to have a strong bearing on policy makers. [source] Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate ChangeECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2003W. Neil Adger Abstract: Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate. [source] El Niño, climate change, and Southern African climateENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 4 2001Simon J. Mason Abstract The El Niño phenomenon involves a large-scale warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Recent developments in the El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have raised concerns about climate change. In this review paper, these recent developments are critically assessed and forecasts of possible future changes are reviewed. Since the late-1970s, El Niño episodes have been unusually recurrent, while the frequency of strong La Niña events has been low. Prolonged/recurrent warm event conditions of the first half of the 1990s were the result of the persistence of an anomalously warm pool near the date line, which, in turn, may be part of an abrupt warming trend in tropical sea-surface temperatures that occurred in the late-1970s. The abrupt warming of tropical sea-surface temperatures has been attributed to the enhanced-greenhouse effect, but may be indicative of inter-decadal variability: earlier changes in the frequency of ENSO events and earlier persistent El Niño and La Niña sequences have occurred. Most forecasts of ENSO variability in a doubled-CO2 climate suggest that the recent changes in the tropical Pacific are anomalous. Of potential concern, however, is a possible reduction in the predictability of ENSO events given a warmer background climate. El Niño events usually are associated with below-normal rainfall over much of southern Africa. Mechanisms for this influence on southern African climate are discussed, and the implications of possible changes in ENSO variability on the climate of the region are assessed. Recent observed changes in southern African climate and their possible relationships with trends in ENSO variability are investigated. The El Niño influence on rainfall over southern Africa occurs largely because of a weakening of tropical convection over the subcontinent. A warming of the Indian Ocean during El Niño events appears to be important in providing a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The abrupt warming of the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans in the late-1970s is probably partly responsible for increasing air temperatures over southern Africa, and may have contributed to a prolongation of predominantly dry conditions. A return to a wet phase appears to have occurred, despite the persistence of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures associated with the late-1970s warming, and a record-breaking El Niño in 1997/98. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Spatial and temporal patterns of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) spawning in the eastern Bering Sea inferred from egg and larval distributionsFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2010NATHAN M. BACHELER Abstract Walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma (pollock hereafter) is a key ecological and economic species in the eastern Bering Sea, yet detailed synthesis of the spatial and temporal patterns of pollock ichthyoplankton in this important region is lacking. This knowledge gap is particularly severe considering that egg and larval distribution are essential to reconstructing spawning locations and early life stages drift pathways. We used 19 yr of ichthyoplankton collections to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of egg and larval distribution. Generalized additive models (GAMs) identified two primary temporal pulses of pollock eggs, the first occurring from 20 February to 31 March and the second from 20 April to 20 May; larvae showed similar, but slightly lagged, pulses. Based on generalized cross-validation and information theory, a GAM model that allowed for different seasonal patterns in egg density within three unique areas outperformed a GAM that assumed a single fixed seasonal pattern across the entire eastern Bering Sea. This ,area-dependent' GAM predicted the highest densities of eggs (i.e., potential spawning locations) in three major areas of the eastern Bering Sea: near Bogoslof Island (February,April), north of Unimak Island and the Alaska Peninsula (March,April), and around the Pribilof Islands (April,August). Unique temporal patterns of egg density were observed for each area, suggesting that pollock spawning may be more spatially and temporally complex than previously assumed. Moreover, this work provides a valuable baseline of pollock spawning to which future changes, such as those resulting from climate variability, may be compared. [source] The response of heterotrophic activity and carbon cycling to nitrogen additions and warming in two tropical soilsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 9 2010DANIELA F. CUSACK Abstract Nitrogen (N) deposition is projected to increase significantly in tropical regions in the coming decades, where changes in climate are also expected. Additional N and warming each have the potential to alter soil carbon (C) storage via changes in microbial activity and decomposition, but little is known about the combined effects of these global change factors in tropical ecosystems. In this study, we used controlled laboratory incubations of soils from a long-term N fertilization experiment to explore the sensitivity of soil C to increased N in two N-rich tropical forests. We found that fertilization corresponded to significant increases in bulk soil C concentrations, and decreases in C loss via heterotrophic respiration (P< 0.05). The increase in soil C was not uniform among C pools, however. The active soil C pool decomposed faster with fertilization, while slowly cycling C pools had longer turnover times. These changes in soil C cycling with N additions corresponded to the responses of two groups of microbial extracellular enzymes. Smaller active C pools corresponded to increased hydrolytic enzyme activities; longer turnover times of the slowly cycling C pool corresponded to reduced activity of oxidative enzymes, which degrade more complex C compounds, in fertilized soils. Warming increased soil respiration overall, and N fertilization significantly increased the temperature sensitivity of slowly cycling C pools in both forests. In the lower elevation forest, respired CO2 from fertilized cores had significantly higher ,14C values than control soils, indicating losses of relatively older soil C. These results indicate that soil C storage is sensitive to both N deposition and warming in N-rich tropical soils, with interacting effects of these two global change factors. N deposition has the potential to increase total soil C stocks in tropical forests, but the long-term stability of this added C will likely depend on future changes in temperature. [source] Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross speciesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2010VIRGINIE ROLLAND Abstract Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long-term data (1985,2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub-Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography. [source] Predicting population consequences of ocean climate change for an ecosystem sentinel, the seabird Cassin's aukletGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2010SHAYE G. WOLF Abstract Forecasting the ecological effects of climate change on marine species is critical for informing greenhouse gas mitigation targets and developing marine conservation strategies that remain effective and increase species' resilience under changing climate conditions. Highly productive coastal upwelling systems are predicted to experience substantial effects from climate change, making them priorities for ecological forecasting. We used a population modeling approach to examine the consequences of ocean climate change in the California Current upwelling ecosystem on the population growth rate of the planktivorous seabird Cassin's auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus), a demographically sensitive indicator of marine climate change. We use future climate projections for sea surface temperature and upwelling intensity from a regional climate model to forecast changes in the population growth rate of the auklet population at the important Farallon Island colony in central California. Our study projected that the auklet population growth rate will experience an absolute decline of 11,45% by the end of the century, placing this population on a trajectory toward extinction. In addition, future changes in upwelling intensity and timing of peak upwelling are likely to vary across auklet foraging regions in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), producing a mosaic of climate conditions and ecological impacts across the auklet range. Overall, the Farallon Island Cassin's auklet population has been declining during recent decades, and ocean climate change in this century under a mid-level emissions scenario is projected to accelerate this decline, leading toward population extinction. Because our study species has proven to be a sensitive indicator of oceanographic conditions in the CCE and a powerful predictor of the abundance of other important predators (i.e. salmon), the significant impacts we predicted for the Cassin's auklet provide insights into the consequences that ocean climate change may have for other plankton predators in this system. [source] Implications of future climate and atmospheric CO2 content for regional biogeochemistry, biogeography and ecosystem services across East AfricaGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2010RUTH M. DOHERTY Abstract We model future changes in land biogeochemistry and biogeography across East Africa. East Africa is one of few tropical regions where general circulation model (GCM) future climate projections exhibit a robust response of strong future warming and general annual-mean rainfall increases. Eighteen future climate projections from nine GCMs participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment were used as input to the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), which predicted vegetation patterns and carbon storage in agreement with satellite observations and forest inventory data under the present-day climate. All simulations showed future increases in tropical woody vegetation over the region at the expense of grasslands. Regional increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (18,36%) and total carbon storage (3,13%) by 2080,2099 compared with the present-day were common to all simulations. Despite decreases in soil carbon after 2050, seven out of nine simulations continued to show an annual net land carbon sink in the final decades of the 21st century because vegetation biomass continued to increase. The seasonal cycles of rainfall and soil moisture show future increases in wet season rainfall across the GCMs with generally little change in dry season rainfall. Based on the simulated present-day climate and its future trends, the GCMs can be grouped into four broad categories. Overall, our model results suggest that East Africa, a populous and economically poor region, is likely to experience some ecosystem service benefits through increased precipitation, river runoff and fresh water availability. Resulting enhancements in NPP may lead to improved crop yields in some areas. Our results stand in partial contradiction to other studies that suggest possible negative consequences for agriculture, biodiversity and other ecosystem services caused by temperature increases. [source] Modeling the effects of fire and climate change on carbon and nitrogen storage in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) standsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2009E. A. H. SMITHWICK Abstract The interaction between disturbance and climate change and resultant effects on ecosystem carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes are poorly understood. Here, we model (using CENTURY version 4.5) how climate change may affect C and N fluxes among mature and regenerating lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm. ex S. Wats.) stands that vary in postfire tree density following stand-replacing fire. Both young (postfire) and mature stands had elevated forest production and net N mineralization under future climate scenarios relative to current climate. Forest production increased 25% [Hadley (HAD)] to 36% [Canadian Climate Center (CCC)], compared with 2% under current climate, among stands that varied in stand age and postfire density. Net N mineralization increased under both climate scenarios, e.g., +19% to 37% (HAD) and +11% to 23% (CCC), with greatest increases for young stands with sparse tree regeneration. By 2100, total ecosystem carbon (live+dead+soils) in mature stands was higher than prefire levels, e.g., +16% to 19% (HAD) and +24% to 28% (CCC). For stands regenerating following fire in 1988, total C storage was 0,9% higher under the CCC climate model, but 5,6% lower under the HAD model and 20,37% lower under the Control. These patterns, which reflect variation in stand age, postfire tree density, and climate model, suggest that although there were strong positive responses of lodgepole pine productivity to future changes in climate, C flux over the next century will reflect complex relationships between climate, age structure, and disturbance-recovery patterns of the landscape. [source] Inter- and intraspecific differences in climatically mediated phenological change in coexisting Triturus speciesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2006ELIZABETH A. CHADWICK Abstract Climate and weather affect phenological events in a wide range of taxa, and future changes might disrupt ecological interactions. Amphibians are particularly sensitive to climate, but few studies have addressed climatically mediated change in the phenology of closely related species or sexes. Here, we test the hypothesis that changes in spring temperatures result in phenological change among Triturus, and we examine inter- and intraspecific differences in response. Coexisting populations of Triturus helveticus and Triturus vulgaris at Llysdinam pond in mid-Wales (53°12,59,N 3°27,3,W) were monitored using pitfall traps along a drift fence during 1981,1987, and again in 1997,2005. Spring temperature over the same period explained up to 74% of between-year variability in median arrival date, with a significant advance of 2,5 days with every degree centigrade increase. Changes were greater for males than females of both species, and greater for T. helveticus than T. vulgaris within sexes, resulting in an increasing temporal separation between arrivals of male T. helveticus and all other groups. These data illustrate for the first time how climatic change might have differential effects on sympatric species and on the two sexes. [source] Partitioning sources of soil respiration in boreal black spruce forest using radiocarbonGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2006Edward A.G. Schuur Abstract Separating ecosystem and soil respiration into autotrophic and heterotrophic component sources is necessary for understanding how the net ecosystem exchange of carbon (C) will respond to current and future changes in climate and vegetation. Here, we use an isotope mass balance method based on radiocarbon to partition respiration sources in three mature black spruce forest stands in Alaska. Radiocarbon (,14C) signatures of respired C reflect the age of substrate C and can be used to differentiate source pools within ecosystems. Recently-fixed C that fuels plant or microbial metabolism has ,14C values close to that of current atmospheric CO2, while C respired from litter and soil organic matter decomposition will reflect the longer residence time of C in plant and soil C pools. Contrary to our expectations, the ,14C of C respired by recently excised black spruce roots averaged 14, greater than expected for recently fixed photosynthetic products, indicating that some portion of the C fueling root metabolism was derived from C storage pools with turnover times of at least several years. The ,14C values of C respired by heterotrophs in laboratory incubations of soil organic matter averaged 60, higher than the contemporary atmosphere ,14CO2, indicating that the major contributors to decomposition are derived from a combination of sources consistent with a mean residence time of up to a decade. Comparing autotrophic and heterotrophic ,14C end members with measurements of the ,14C of total soil respiration, we calculated that 47,63% of soil CO2 emissions were derived from heterotrophic respiration across all three sites. Our limited temporal sampling also observed no significant differences in the partitioning of soil respiration in the early season compared with the late season. Future work is needed to address the reasons for high ,14C values in root respiration and issues of whether this method fully captures the contribution of rhizosphere respiration. [source] Do dams and levees impact nitrogen cycling?GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 8 2005Simulating the effects of flood alterations on floodplain denitrification Abstract A fundamental challenge in understanding the global nitrogen cycle is the quantification of denitrification on large heterogeneous landscapes. Because floodplains are important sites for denitrification and nitrogen retention, we developed a generalized floodplain biogeochemical model to determine whether dams and flood-control levees affect floodplain denitrification by altering floodplain inundation. We combined a statistical model of floodplain topography with a model of hydrology and nitrogen biogeochemistry to simulate floods of different magnitude. The model predicted substantial decreases in NO3 -N processing on floodplains whose overbank floods have been altered by levees and upstream dams. Our simulations suggest that dams may reduce nitrate processing more than setback levees. Levees increased areal floodplain denitrification rates, but this effect was offset by a reduction in the area inundated. Scenarios that involved a levee also resulted in more variability in N processing among replicate floodplains. Nitrate loss occurred rapidly and completely in our model floodplains. As a consequence, total flood volume and the initial mass of nitrate reaching a floodplain may provide reasonable estimates of total N processing on floodplains during floods. This finding suggests that quantifying the impact of dams and levees on floodplain denitrification may be possible using recent advances in remote sensing of floodplain topography and flood stage. Furthermore, when considering flooding over the long-term, the cumulative N processed by frequent smaller floods was estimated to be quite large relative to that processed by larger, less frequent floods. Our results suggest that floodplain denitrification may be greatly influenced by the pervasive anthropogenic flood-control measures that currently exist on most majors river floodplains throughout the world, and may have the potential to be impacted by future changes in flood probabilities that will likely occur as a result of climate shifts. [source] Modeling of a Deep-Seated Geothermal System Near Tianjin, ChinaGROUND WATER, Issue 3 2001Zhou Xun A geothermal field is located in deep-seated basement aquifers in the northeastern part of the North China Plain near Tianjin, China. Carbonate rocks of Ordovician and Middle and Upper Proterozoic age on the Cangxian Uplift are capable of yielding 960 to 4200 m3/d of 57°C to 96°C water to wells from a depth of more than 1000 m. A three-dimensional nonisothermal numerical model was used to simulate and predict the spatial and temporal evolution of pressure and temperature in the geothermal system. The density of the geothermal water, which appears in the governing equations, can be expressed as a linear function of pressure, temperature, and total dissolved solids. A term describing the exchange of heat between water and rock is incorporated in the governing heat transport equation. Conductive heat flow from surrounding formations can be considered among the boundary conditions. Recent data of geothermal water production from the system were used for a first calibration of the numerical model. The calibrated model was used to predict the future changes in pressure and temperature of the geothermal water caused by two pumping schemes. The modeling results indicate that both pressure and temperature have a tendency to decrease with time and pumping. The current withdrawal rates and a pumping period of five months followed by a shut-off period of seven months are helpful in minimizing the degradation of the geothermal resource potential in the area. [source] Hydrologic prediction for urban watersheds with the Distributed Hydrology,Soil,Vegetation ModelHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 21 2008Lan Cuo Abstract Some relatively straightforward modifications to the Distributed Hydrology,Soil,Vegetation Model (DHSVM) are described that allow it to represent urban hydrological processes. In the modified model, precipitation that falls on impervious surfaces becomes surface runoff, and a spatially varying (depending on land cover) fraction of surface runoff is connected directly to the stream channel, with the remainder stored and slowly released to represent the effects of stormwater detention. The model was evaluated through application to Springbrook Creek watershed in a partially urbanized area of King County, Washington. With calibration, the modified DHSVM simulates hourly streamflow from these urbanized catchments quite well. It is also shown how the revised model can be used to study the effects of continuing urbanization in the much larger Puget Sound basin. Model simulations confirm many previous studies in showing that urbanization increases peak flows and their frequency, and decreases peak flow lag times. The results show that the urbanization parameterizations for DHSVM facilitate use of the model for prediction and/or reconstruction of a range of historic and future changes in land cover that will accompany urbanization as well as other forms of vegetation change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modelling runoff from highly glacierized alpine drainage basins in a changing climateHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 19 2008Matthias Huss Abstract The future runoff from three highly glacierized alpine catchments is assessed for the period 2007,2100 using a glacio-hydrological model including the change in glacier coverage. We apply scenarios for the seasonal change in temperature and precipitation derived from regional climate models. Glacier surface mass balance and runoff are calculated in daily time-steps using a distributed temperature-index melt and accumulation model. Model components account for changes in glacier extent and surface elevation, evaporation and runoff routing. The model is calibrated and validated using decadal ice volume changes derived from four digital elevation models (DEMs) between 1962 and 2006, and monthly runoff measured at a gauging station (1979,2006). Annual runoff from the drainage basins shows an initial increase which is due to the release of water from glacial storage. After some decades, depending on catchment characteristics and the applied climate change scenario, runoff stabilizes and then drops below the current level. In all climate projections, the glacier area shrinks dramatically. There is an increase in runoff during spring and early summer, whereas the runoff in July and August decreases significantly. This study highlights the impact of glaciers and their future changes on runoff from high alpine drainage basins. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Estimating the evolution of vegetation cover and its hydrological impact in the Mekong River basin in the 21st centuryHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 9 2008Hiroshi Ishidaira Abstract The terrestrial biosphere plays a key role in regional energy and water cycles. Thus, for long-term hydrological predictions, possible future changes in vegetation cover must be understood. This study examined the evolution of vegetation cover in the 21st century and its estimated impact on river discharge in the Mekong River basin. Based on climatic predictions (TYN SC 2·03) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, changes in vegetation type and the leaf area index (LAI) were simulated using a Lund-Potsdam-Jena-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) and Terrestrial Biogeochemical Cycle Model (BIOME-BGC). The estimated LAI was then used in the rainfall-runoff analysis in the Yamanashi Distributed Hydrological Model (YHyM). The simulation results indicated a significant change in vegetation type mainly on the Tibetan Plateau and in mountainous areas, with the degree of change differing for each SRES scenario; LAI increases around the edge of the Tibetan Plateau and decreases in the lower reaches of the basin; and more conspicuous changes in river discharge in upstream areas than in the middle to lower reaches, mainly due to increases in precipitation in the plateau region. After the 2050s, the results suggested changes in river discharge will be slowed due to changes in evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Classification of hydrological regimes of northern floodplain basins (Peace,Athabasca Delta, Canada) from analysis of stable isotopes (,18O, ,2H) and water chemistryHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 2 2007Brent B. Wolfe Abstract We used stable isotopes (,18O and ,2H) and water chemistry to characterize the water balance and hydrolimnological relationships of 57 shallow aquatic basins in the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), northern Alberta, Canada, based on sampling at the end of the 2000 thaw season. Evaporation-to-inflow ratios (E/I) were estimated using an isotope mass-balance model tailored to accommodate basin-specific input water compositions, which provided an effective, first-order, quantitative framework for identifying water balances and associated limnological characteristics spanning three main, previously identified drainage types. Open-drainage basins (E/I < 0·4; n = 5), characterized by low alkalinity, low concentrations of nitrogen, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and ions, and high minerogenic turbidity, include large, shallow basins that dominate the interior of the PAD and experience frequent or continuous river channel connection. Closed-drainage basins (E/I , 1·0; n = 16), in contrast, possess high alkalinity and high concentrations of nitrogen, DOC, and ions, and low minerogenic turbidity, and are located primarily in the relict and infrequently flooded landscape of the northern Peace sector of the delta. Several basins fall into the restricted-drainage category (0·4 # E/I < 1·0; n = 26) with intermediate water chemistries and are predominant in the southern Athabasca sector, which is subject to active fluviodeltaic processes, including intermittent flooding from riverbank overflow. Integration of isotopic and limnological data also revealed evidence for a new fourth drainage type, mainly located near the large open-drainage lakes that occupy the central portion of the delta but within the Athabasca sector (n = 10). These basins were very shallow (<50 cm deep) at the time of sampling and isotopically depleted, corresponding to E/I characteristic of restricted- and open-drainage conditions. However, they are limnologically similar to closed-drainage basins except for higher conductivity and higher concentrations of Ca2+ and Na+, and lower concentrations of SiO2 and chlorophyll c. These distinct features are due to the overriding influence of recent summer rainfall on the basin water balance and chemistry. The close relationships evident between water balances and limnological conditions suggest that past and future changes in hydrology are likely to be coupled with marked alterations in water chemistry and, hence, the ecology of aquatic environments in the PAD. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Changing patterns of human resource management in contemporary China: WTO accession and enterprise responsesINDUSTRIAL RELATIONS JOURNAL, Issue 4 2004Ying Zhu ABSTRACT This study examines the increasingly complex challenges facing human resource management (HRM) in China following the country's accession to the WTO and, consequently, the implications for further reform of government policy and enterprise-level HRM practices. The article concludes that current HR practices among enterprises vary depending on ownership, industrial sector, location and history. The direction of future changes may depend on the level of involvement from external forces as well as internal strategies adopted by Chinese enterprises to survive. [source] Auditor Independence in Canada: A Historical Perspective , From Shareholder Auditors to Modern-Day Audit Committees,ACCOUNTING PERSPECTIVES, Issue 1 2006DUNCAN L. GREEN ABSTRACT This paper uses the theoretical framework of Goldman and Barlev (1974) to examine auditor independence in Canada. It traces the historical development of the auditor's role in the 19th century and the beginning of the auditor's relationship with shareholders and management. It shows how, following the separation of management from shareholding, management's ability to influence auditors undermined auditor independence. The paper traces attempts by legislators and regulatory bodies to limit management's influence over auditors and to correct the asymmetry of their relationship. It notes that recent changes to legislation and rules of professional conduct are no longer proactive, but are reactions to corporate scandals in Canada and the United States. The paper argues that although future changes will occur to redress the imbalance, only structural changes are likely to provide a real solution to auditor independence problems. However, it is likely that such changes will be resisted by the accounting profession. [source] Dynamical versus statistical downscaling methods for ocean wave heightsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Xiaolan L. Wang Abstract In this study, dynamical and statistical downscaling methods for estimating seasonal statistics of significant wave heights (SWH) were intercompared, with the downscaling results being evaluated against the ERA40 wave data in terms of climatological characteristics and interannual variability. It was also shown that biases in climate-model-simulated climate and variability of the atmospheric circulation (or predictors in general) can result in large biases in the estimated climate and variability of SWH (or the predictand in general), and that such biases can be effectively diminished by using standardized predictor quantities in statistical downscaling models. In dynamical downscaling, however, model variability biases remain to be dealt with, whereas the effects of model climate biases can be reduced to some extent by replacing the climate-model-simulated wind climate with the observed one. Therefore, the dynamical approach was found to be not as good as the statistical methods in terms of reproducing the observed climate and interannual variability of the predictand, although it bears substantial similarity to the statistical methods in terms of projected possible future changes. Also, it was shown that the observed interannual variability of seasonal statistics (including extremes) can be better reproduced by using 12-hourly, rather than seasonal, data in statistical downscaling. This stresses the importance of availability of higher-resolution data from climate model outputs. Nevertheless, a non-stationary extreme value model with covariates was found to be the best in reproducing the observed climate of extremes. All the statistical downscaling methods and the intercomparison results are applicable to other climate variables (not limited to ocean wave heights). Copyright © 2009 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 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