Future Cash (future + cash)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Selected Abstracts

Accounting Conservatism and the Temporal Trends in Current Earnings' Ability to Predict Future Cash Flows versus Future Earnings: Evidence on the Trade-off between Relevance and Reliability

M41; C23; D21; G38 This research reports that an increasing level of accounting conservatism over the 1973,2005 period is associated with: (1) an increase in the ability of current earnings to predict future cash flows and (2) a decrease in the ability of current earnings to predict future earnings. We also find that usefulness of earnings for explaining stock prices over book values is positively related to reliability but not to relevance. Our results hold for the constant and full samples in both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses and are robust to the use of alternative measures for relevance, reliability, earnings usefulness, and conservatism. Our findings about the relations among conservatism, relevance, reliability, and usefulness suggest a trade-off between relevance and reliability and seem to indicate that the adoption of an increasing number of conservative accounting standards has a possible adverse impact on earnings usefulness through a negative effect on reliability. [source]

Resource Allocation Effects of Price Reactions to Disclosures,

Ronald A. Dye
Abstract Capital market participants collectively may possess information about the valuation implications of a firm's change in strategy not known by the management of the firm proposing the change. We ask whether a firm's management can exploit the capital market's information in deciding either whether to proceed with a contemplated strategy change or whether to continue with a previously initiated strategy change. In the case of a proposed strategy change, we show that managers can extract the capital market's information by announcing a potential new strategy, and then conditioning the decision to implement the new strategy on the size of the market's price reaction to the announcement. Under this arrangement, we show that a necessary condition to implement all and only positive net present value strategy changes is that managers proceed to implement some strategies that garner negative price reactions upon their announcement. In the case of deciding whether to continue with a previously implemented strategy change, we show that it may be optimal for the firm to predicate its abandonment/continuation decision on the magnitude of the costs it has already incurred. Thus, what looks like "sunk-cost" behavior may in fact be optimal. Both demonstrations show that, in addition to performing their usual role of anticipating future cash flows generated by a manager's actions, capital market prices can also be used to direct a manager's actions. It follows that, in contrast to the usual depiction of the information flows between capital markets and firms as being one way , from firms to the capital markets , information also flows from capital markets to firms. [source]

The Effect of Earnings Forecasts on Earnings Management

Sunil Dutta
We develop a theory of the association between earnings management and voluntary management forecasts in an agency setting. Earnings management is modeled as a "window dressing" action that can increase the firm's reported accounting earnings but has no impact on the firm's real cash flows. Earnings forecasts are modeled as the manager's communication of the firm's future cash flows. We show that it is easier to prevent the manager from managing earnings if he is asked to forecast earnings. We also show that earnings management is more likely to follow high earnings forecasts than low earnings forecasts. Finally, our analysis shows that shareholders may not find it optimal to prohibit earnings management. Earlier results rationalize earnings management by violating some assumption underlying the Revelation Principle. By contrast, in our model the principal can make full commitments and communication is unrestricted. Nonetheless, earnings management can be beneficial as it reduces the cost of eliciting truthful forecasts. [source]

Managing Earnings with Intercorporate Investments

ōyvind BÝhren
Abstract:, We explore to what extent firms deliberately manage their financial reports by exploiting the flexibility of generally accepted accounting principles. Using a sample of Oslo Stock Exchange-listed firms with 20,50% equity holdings in other firms, we find that firms with high financial leverage tend to maximize reported earnings from these investments through their choice between the cost method and the equity method, possibly in an attempt to reduce debt renegotiation costs or to avoid regulatory attention. In contrast, managers do not systematically bias reported earnings to extract private benefits or to signal revised expectations about future cash flows. Firms use different earnings management tools in a consistent way, as the earnings effect of the cost/equity choice is not offset by discretionary accruals. [source]

Loan Loss Provisions by Banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore

Li Li Eng
This paper studies loan loss disclosures by banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore for the period 1993 through 2000. We find that unexpected loan loss provisions are positively related to bank stock returns and future cash flows. This indicates that Asian bank managers increase loan loss provisions to signal favorable cash flow prospects, and bank investors bid bank stock prices up when unexpected provisions are positive. These results are consistent with those obtained by Wahlen (1994) for US banks. We also examine the impact of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 on the loan loss variables. The results indicate that the association between the unexpected loan loss provisions and bank stock returns and future cash flows was significantly lower in the crisis years, relative to the non-crisis period. Evidently, discretionary loan loss provisions had no signaling value during the crisis. This suggests that macroeconomic uncertainty influenced the strategic behavior of Asian bank managers and investors. [source]

Optimal timing to invest in e-commerce

Jow-Ran Chang
The timing of investment in e-commerce remains hotly debated in both the academic and investment communities. This study develops a framework for analyzing the optimal timing for a company to invest in e-commerce for conducting its business-to-business (B2B) or business-to-consumer (B2C) transactions. This study applies a real option theory to assess a new risk,reward dynamic for investing in e-commerce. The numerical results demonstrate that the optimal timing of investment in e-commerce depends on uncertainties regarding future cash flows and the opportunity costs associated with e-commerce. Implications with regard to the behavior of Internet companies from a financial perspective are discussed. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source]

Feedback Effects and Asset Prices

ABSTRACT Feedback effects from asset prices to firm cash flows have been empirically documented. This finding raises a question for asset pricing: How are asset prices determined if price affects fundamental value, which in turn affects price? In this environment, by buying assets that others are buying, investors ensure high future cash flows for the firm and subsequent high returns for themselves. Hence, investors have an incentive to coordinate, which may generate self-fulfilling beliefs and multiple equilibria. Using insights from global games, we pin down investors' beliefs, analyze equilibrium prices, and show that strong feedback leads to higher excess volatility. [source]

The Diversification Discount: Cash Flows Versus Returns

Owen A. Lamont
Diversified firms have different values from comparable portfolios of single-segment firms. These value differences must be due to differences in either future cash flows or future returns. Expected security returns on diversified firms vary systematically with relative value. Discount firms have significantly higher subsequent returns than premium firms. Slightly more than half of the cross-sectional variation in excess values is due to variation in expected future cash flows, with the remainder due to variation in expected future returns and to covariation between cash flows and returns. [source]

International Comparisons on Stock Market Short-termism: How Different is the UK Experience?

Angela J. Black
Using data from five major stock markets and a vector autoregression estimation procedure underpinned by the traditional intertemporal capital asset pricing model, initial evidence suggests that the UK investing community is particularly prejudiced in terms of short-termist behaviour. The observed UK myopic outlook, however, may be more apparent than real. We hypothesize that UK investors are highly sensitive to uncertainty over future cash flows,a feature which is not being captured by traditional theoretical models. Motivated by the ,option value' approach, the evidence shows that uncertainty about UK economic conditions, as proxied by the spread between mortgage rates and base rates, can go some way in explaining the reported UK anomaly. [source]

Prediction of Operating Cash Flows: Further Evidence from Australia

Ahsan Habib
This paper examines empirically the relative abilities of current operating cash flows (hereafter OCF) and earnings in predicting future operating cash flows in Australia. It extends prior Australian research on cash flow prediction (Percy and Stokes 1992; Clinch, Sidhu and Sing 2002; Farshadfar, Ng and Brimble 2009) by examining future cash flow predictions for one-, two- and three-year-ahead forecast horizons; incorporating additional contextual variables likely to affect the predictive association between current cash flows or earnings and future cash flows; and comparing cross-sectional versus time series-based prediction models to ascertain the relative superiority of one approach over the other. Regression results reveal that the cash flow-based models are more accurate in predicting future operating cash flows than earnings-based models. This result, however, is moderated by firm-specific contextual factors like firm size, negative versus positive cash flow pattern, cash flow variability and firm operating cycle. Finally, a comparison between cross-sectional and time series approaches reveals that the cross-sectional model outperforms the time series model for both the operating cash flows and earnings models in most of the forecast years. [source]