Future Behavior (future + behavior)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Selected Abstracts

Behavioral forecasts do not improve the prediction of future behavior: a prospective study of self-injury,

Irene Belle Janis
Abstract Clinicians are routinely encouraged to use multimodal assessments incorporating information from multiple sources when determining an individual's risk of dangerous or self-injurious behavior; however, some sources of information may not improve prediction models and so should not be relied on in such assessments. The authors examined whether individuals' prediction of their own future behavior improves prediction over using history of self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITB) alone. Sixty-four adolescents with a history of SITB were interviewed regarding their past year history of SITB, asked about the likelihood that they would engage in future SITB, and followed over a 6-month period. Individuals' forecasts of their future behavior were related to subsequent SITB, but did not improve prediction beyond the use of SITB history. In contrast, history of SITB improved prediction of subsequent SITB beyond individuals' behavioral forecasts. Clinicians should rely more on past history of a behavior than individuals' forecasts of future behavior in predicting SITB. 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Psychol 64:1,11, 2008. [source]

Language Is a Complex Adaptive System: Position Paper

The "Five Graces Group"
Language has a fundamentally social function. Processes of human interaction along with domain-general cognitive processes shape the structure and knowledge of language. Recent research in the cognitive sciences has demonstrated that patterns of use strongly affect how language is acquired, is used, and changes. These processes are not independent of one another but are facets of the same,complex adaptive system,(CAS). Language as a CAS involves the following key features: The system consists of multiple agents (the speakers in the speech community) interacting with one another. The system is adaptive; that is, speakers' behavior is based on their past interactions, and current and past interactions together feed forward into future behavior. A speaker's behavior is the consequence of competing factors ranging from perceptual constraints to social motivations. The structures of language emerge from interrelated patterns of experience, social interaction, and cognitive mechanisms. The CAS approach reveals commonalities in many areas of language research, including first and second language acquisition, historical linguistics, psycholinguistics, language evolution, and computational modeling. [source]

Robust Hedging of Barrier Options

Haydyn Brown
This article considers the pricing and hedging of barrier options in a market in which call options are liquidly traded and can be used as hedging instruments. This use of call options means that market preferences and beliefs about the future behavior of the underlying assets are in some sense incorporated into the hedge and do not need to be specified exogenously. Thus we are able to find prices for exotic derivatives which are independent of any model for the underlying asset. For example we do not need to assume that the underlying assets follow an exponential Brownian motion. We find model-independent upper and lower bounds on the prices of knock-in and knock-out puts and calls. If the market prices the barrier options outside these limits then we give simple strategies for generating profits at zero risk. Examples illustrate that the bounds we give can be fairly tight. [source]

International Organization as a Seal of Approval: European Union Accession and Investor Risk

Julia Gray
Much of the literature on international institutions argues that membership regularizes expectations about members' future behavior. Using the accession of the postcommunist countries as a test case, this article argues that the EU can send strong signals to financial markets about the trajectory of a particular country. Examining spreads on sovereign debt from 1990 to 2006, this article shows that closing negotiation chapters on domestic economic policy,in other words, receiving a seal of approval from Brussels that previously existing policy reform is acceptable to the wider EU,substantially decreases perceptions of default risk in those countries. That decrease operates independently from policy reform that the country has taken and is also distinct from selection processes (modeled here with new variables, including UNESCO World Heritage sites and domestic movie production, that proxy for cultural factors). Thus, this particular international organization has played an important role in coordinating market sentiment on members, conferring confidence that policy reform alone could not accomplish. [source]

Panic comorbidity with bipolar disorder: what is the manic,panic connection?

Dean F MacKinnon
Context:, Bipolar/panic comorbidity has been observed in clinical, community and familial samples. As both are episodic disorders of affect regulation, the common pathophysiological mechanism is likely to involve deficits in amygdala-mediated, plasticity-dependent emotional conditioning. Evidence:, Neuronal genesis and synaptic remodeling occur in the amygdala; bipolar and panic disorders have both been associated with abnormality in the amygdala and related structures, as well as in molecules that modulate plasticity, such as serotonin, norepinephrine, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and corticotrophin releasing factor (CRF). These biological elements are involved in behavioral conditioning to threat and reward. Model:, Panic attacks resemble the normal acute fear response, but are abnormally dissociated from any relevant threat. Abnormal reward-seeking behavior is central to both manic and depressive syndromes. Appetites can be elevated or depressed; satisfaction of a drive may fail to condition future behavior. These dissociations may be the result of deficits in plasticity-dependent processes of conditioning within different amygdala subregions. Conclusions:, This speculative model may be a useful framework with which to connect molecular, cellular, anatomic and behavioral processes in panic and bipolar disorders. The primary clinical implication is that behavioral treatment may be critical to restore function in some bipolar patients who respond only partially to medications. [source]