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Flood Forecasting (flood + forecasting)
Selected AbstractsUse of multi-platform, multi-temporal remote-sensing data for calibration of a distributed hydrological model: an application in the Arno basin, ItalyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 13 2006Lorenzo Campo Abstract Images from satellite platforms are a valid aid in order to obtain distributed information about hydrological surface states and parameters needed in calibration and validation of the water balance and flood forecasting. Remotely sensed data are easily available on large areas and with a frequency compatible with land cover changes. In this paper, remotely sensed images from different types of sensor have been utilized as a support to the calibration of the distributed hydrological model MOBIDIC, currently used in the experimental system of flood forecasting of the Arno River Basin Authority. Six radar images from ERS-2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors (three for summer 2002 and three for spring,summer 2003) have been utilized and a relationship between soil saturation indexes and backscatter coefficient from SAR images has been investigated. Analysis has been performed only on pixels with meagre or no vegetation cover, in order to legitimize the assumption that water content of the soil is the main variable that influences the backscatter coefficient. Such pixels have been obtained by considering vegetation indexes (NDVI) and land cover maps produced by optical sensors (Landsat-ETM). In order to calibrate the soil moisture model based on information provided by SAR images, an optimization algorithm has been utilized to minimize the regression error between saturation indexes from model and SAR data and error between measured and modelled discharge flows. Utilizing this procedure, model parameters that rule soil moisture fluxes have been calibrated, obtaining not only a good match with remotely sensed data, but also an enhancement of model performance in flow prediction with respect to a previous calibration with river discharge data only. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The systematic approach to flooding problems,IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, Issue S1 2006J. (Hans) van Duivendijk maîtrise des crues; mesures non-structurelles; gestion des inondations Abstract Since 1987 one of the working groups of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) has, inter alia, been preparing two manuals concerning approaches to flooding problems. The Manual on Non-Structural Approaches to Flood Management was issued in 1999 while the Manual on the Planning of Structural Approaches to Flood Management has been issued recently (2005). In this paper a broad outline of both manuals is presented. The first manual describes in detail the various planning and response measures in flood management, which are known as non-structural measures. The latter are measures which alter the exposure of life and property to flooding but do not change the flood(ing) phenomenon as such. The said planning and response measures comprise such actions as floodplain land use management, flood forecasting and warning, flood fighting, flood proofing, etc. It is explained that such measures are sometimes the only ones feasible in the prevailing circumstances and that, moreover, non-structural measures should always be added to the so-called structural measures if the latter are considered feasible (i.e. feasible from a technical, economic, socio-economic and ecological point of view). In the second manual a methodology is presented for the planning of structural measures. This type of measure alters the physical characteristics of the floods and in this connection one must think of the operation of flood storage reservoirs, upstream catchment management, modification to river channels, construction of levees, special flood diversion channels (bypasses) and operation of hydraulics works. The idea behind this methodology is that it is difficult for planners and decision makers to select the appropriate flood protection system for a given situation including a range of possible floods if the problem is not approached in a systematic manner. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Depuis 1987 un des groupes de travail de la CIID prépare, entre autres, deux manuels sur la manière d'approcher les problèmes d'inondation. Le ,Manuel d'approche non-structurelle de la gestion des crues' a été publié en 1999, tandis que le ,Manuel de la planification de l'approche structurelle de la gestion des crues' a été publié plus récemment (2005). Le présent article présente une vue d'ensemble de ces deux manuels. Le premier manuel donne une description détaillée des différentes mesures de préparation et de réponse à la gestion des crues, connues comme étant non-structurelles. Ces mesures changent l'exposition de la vie et des propriétés aux inondations mais ne modifient pas le phénomène proprement dit des crues et des inondations. Elles comprennent des actions telles que la gestion de l'espace dans les plaines d'inondations, les prévisions et alertes, la lutte contre les crues, la protection contre les inondations, etc. On y explique que ces mesures sont parfois les seules faisables dans les circonstances données et que, en outre, des mesures non-structurelles devraient toujours être ajoutées aux mesures dites structurelles si ces dernières sont considérées comme faisables (c'est-à-dire faisables d'un point de vue technique, économique, socio-économique et écologique). Dans le second manuel une méthodologie est présentée pour la planification des mesures structurelles. Ce type de mesures modifie les caractéristiques physiques des crues, comme par exemple réservoirs d'écrétage de crue, gestion des hauts bassins, modification des lits des fleuves, construction de digues, canaux spéciaux de déviation des crues (courts circuits) et fonctionnement d'ouvrages hydrauliques. L'idée qui est derrière cette méthodologie est qu'il est difficile aux planificateurs et aux décideurs de choisir le système de protection contre les crues correspondant exactement à une situation comprenant une large gamme d'inondations possibles si le problème n'est pas approché de manière systématique. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Hydrometeorological modelling for flash flood areas: the case of the 2002 Gard event in FranceJOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2009S. Anquetin Abstract In the context of flash flood forecasting, this paper proposes a few advances in our understanding of the hydrometeorological processes and their associated modelling requirements that may be useful to introduce within an operational forecasting chain. The study is focused on the September 2002 storm that produced more than 600 mm of rainfall in <24 h and triggered a series of flash floods in the South of France. This catastrophic event took 23 human lives in 16 distinct subcatchments. This paper proposes a combined detailed analysis of the meteorological event and hydrological simulations of the response of four small-ungauged catchments. The meteorological analyses are based on observations and results of simulation of rain fields obtained with the MesoNH model. These analyses explained the steadiness of the storms that led to a locally intense precipitation: the role of the orography and favourable synoptic conditions. The hydrological model is set up without any calibration and the soil parameter specification is based on an existing soil database. Radar rainfall estimations are used. Simulated specific peak discharges are found to be in agreement with estimations from a postevent in situ investigation. Based on the model results, a cartography of the dominant process is proposed for the four selected catchments. [source] APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 2 2006Moon Seong Rang ABSTRACT: The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall-runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km2 watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth-order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea. [source] Recent developments in operational flood forecasting in England, Wales and ScotlandMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 1 2009Micha Werner Abstract This paper discusses developments in the last five to six years in the provision of operational flood forecasting in England, Wales, and Scotland. Before the formation of the Environment Agency (EA) in England and Wales and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), flood forecasting capabilities were fragmented. Just over a decade ago both organisations received governmental mandates for the provision of flood forecasting and warning nationally, and have as a result in recent years established systems providing national coverage: the National Flood Forecasting System, and Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) Scotland. These have facilitated a rapid expansion of catchments for which forecasts are provided, and the common framework used has enabled a more rapid introduction of scientific advances in forecasting techniques. This paper gives an overview of some of these recent developments, as well as providing an outlook to further developments to be undertaken in the near future. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Flash flood forecasting: What are the limits of predictability?THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 622 2007C. G. Collier Abstract Flash floods may occur suddenly and be accompanied by other hazards such as landslides, mud flows, damage to infrastructure and even death. In the UK such events are comparatively rare occurring on average only once or twice per year. Warning systems must depend upon the accurate real-time provision of rainfall information, high-resolution numerical weather forecasts and the operation of hydrological model systems in addition to forecast delivery procedures not discussed in this paper. In this paper we review how flash floods are forecast considering the limitations and uncertainty involved in both the meteorological and hydrological aspects of forecasting systems. Data assimilation and the use of ensembles are both key elements across disciplines. Assessing the susceptibility of river catchments to extreme flooding is considered, and statistical methods of estimating the likelihood of extreme rainfall and floods within a changing climate are examined. Ways of constraining flash flood forecasts are noted as one way to improve forecast performance in the future. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] STEPS: A probabilistic precipitation forecasting scheme which merges an extrapolation nowcast with downscaled NWPTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 620 2006Neill E. Bowler Abstract An ensemble-based probabilistic precipitation forecasting scheme has been developed that blends an extrapolation nowcast with a downscaled NWP forecast, known as STEPS: Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System. The uncertainties in the motion and evolution of radar-inferred precipitation fields are quantified, and the uncertainty in the evolution of the precipitation pattern is shown to be the more important. The use of ensembles allows the scheme to be used for applications that require forecasts of the probability density function of areal and temporal averages of precipitation, such as fluvial flood forecasting,a capability that has not been provided by previous probabilistic precipitation nowcast schemes. The output from a NWP forecast model is downscaled so that the small scales not represented accurately by the model are injected into the forecast using stochastic noise. This allows the scheme to better represent the distribution of precipitation rate at spatial scales finer than those adequately resolved by operational NWP. The performance of the scheme has been assessed over the month of March 2003. Performance evaluation statistics show that the scheme possesses predictive skill at lead times in excess of six hours. © Crown copyright, 2006. [source] Ensemble flood forecasting in Africa: a feasibility study in the Juba,Shabelle river basin,ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 2 2010Vera Thiemig Abstract The European flood alert system (EFAS) achieves early flood warnings for large to medium-size river basins with lead times of 10 days. This is based on probabilistic weather forecasts, the exceedance of alert thresholds and persistence. The methodologies have been tested for different events and time scales in mid-latitude basins in Europe. In this article, the transferability of the EFAS-methodologies to equatorial African basins is assessed with the analysis of the Juba,Shabelle river basin as an example using a variety of different meteorological data sources. In this context, ERA-40 and CHARM have been used for the calculation of climatologies; re-forecasts of the current operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model provided hindcasts of historic flood events. The results show that flood events have been detected successfully in more than 85% of all cases, with a high accuracy in terms of timing and magnitude. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Use of a stochastic precipitation nowcast scheme for fluvial flood forecasting and warningATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 1 2005Clive Pierce Abstract In collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology (Melbourne, Australia), the Met Office (Joint Centre for Hydro,Meteorological Research, UK) has developed a stochastic precipitation nowcast scheme, designed to model and predict the PDF of surface rain rate and rain accumulation in space and time. Here we demonstrate the range of probabilistic products generated by the scheme, and their potential applications for fluvial flood forecasting and warning. With the aid of a hydrological model (the PDM), we consider the use of ensembles of predicted catchment rain accumulation in evaluating the range of possible river flow responses from a given catchment. When employed in conjunction with a catchment specific, cost-based decision-making model, we highlight the value of PDFs of forecast catchment rainfall accumulation and river flow as an aid to objective decision making within the flood warning process. Crown Copyright 2005. Reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | |||||||||||||