False Absences (false + absence)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


Few beetle species can be detected with 95% confidence using pitfall traps

AUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2010
DON A. DRISCOLL
Abstract False absences in wildlife surveys make it difficult to identify metapopulation processes, increase uncertainty of management decisions and bias parameter estimates in habitat models. Despite these risks, the number of species that can be detected with a certain probability in a community survey has rarely been examined. I sampled beetles over 5 months using pitfall trap grids at three rainforest locations in Tasmania, Australia. I compared detection probability for dispersed and clustered sampling schemes using a zero-inflated binomial model and a simpler occurrence method to calculate the probability of detection. After excluding extremely rare species, I analysed 12 of 121 species. Only three to six species could be detected with 95% probability using a sampling effort that is frequently applied in ecological studies. A majority of common species had a mid summer peak in detection probability meaning that survey effort could be reduced from 5 to 2 months with only a small reduction in data quality. Most species occurred at only a proportion of sample points within locations. Despite the implied spatial structuring, three small grids within a location detected 10 of 12 species as effectively as large, dispersed grids. This study warns that as little as 5% of the beetle fauna may have a 95% probability of detection using the frequently applied pitfall trap method, highlighting a substantial limitation in our ability to accurately map the distributions of ground invertebrates. Whether very large sample sizes can overcome this limitation remains to be examined. [source]


Developing an approach to defining the potential distributions of invasive plant species: a case study of Hakea species in South Africa

GLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2008
David C. Le Maitre
ABSTRACT Aim, Models of the potential distributions of invading species have to deal with a number of issues. The key one is the high likelihood that the absence of an invading species in an area is a false absence because it may not have invaded that area yet, or that it may not have been detected. This paper develops an approach for screening pseudo-absences in a way that is logical and defensible. Innovation, The step-wise approach involves: (1) screening environmental variables to identify those most likely to indicate conditions where the species cannot invade; (2) identifying and selecting the most likely limiting variables; (3) using these to define the limits of its invasion potential; and (4) selecting points outside these limits as true absence records for input into species distribution models. This approach was adopted and used for the study of three prominent Hakea species in South Africa. Models with and without the false absence records were compared. Two rainfall variables and the mean minimum temperature of the coldest month were the strongest predictors of potential distributions. Models which excluded false absences predicted that more of the potential distribution would have a high invasion potential than those which included them. Main conclusions, The approach of applying a priori knowledge can be useful in refining the potential distribution of a species by excluding pseudo-absence records which are likely to be due to the species not having invaded an area yet or being undetected. The differences between the potential distributions predicted by the different models convey more information than making a single prediction, albeit a consensus model. The robustness of this approach depends strongly on an adequate knowledge of the ecology, invasion history and current distribution of that species. [source]


Experimental design and taxonomic scope of fragmentation studies on European mammals: current status and future priorities

MAMMAL REVIEW, Issue 2 2010
Alessio MORTELLITI
ABSTRACT 1Habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and habitat degradation are the greatest threats to mammals in Europe and the rest of the world. Despite the fact that extensive literature exists, no comprehensive review or synthesis is available to date and this may slow down scientific progress and hamper conservation efforts. 2The goal of this study is to understand if and in what direction progress has been made in the study of the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on the spatial distribution of European terrestrial mammals. Firstly, we carry out a general synthesis which is structured around 11 key points. The aim of this point-by-point analysis is to identify trends, knowledge gaps and any significant bias in the available literature, and to highlight strengths and shortfalls of the different approaches which have to date been applied. Secondly, we follow a species-specific systematic approach: for each species, we synthesise key results. 3Our results show how substantial progress has been hampered for several reasons including: a large predominance of small-scale field studies of short duration, and a generalised lack of control of: (i) confounding variables; (ii) spatial autocorrelation; and (iii) false absences. Also, despite the relatively high number of studies, few were theoretical studies and even fewer were meta-analyses. The lack of meta-analyses is likely to be due to the small amount of crucial details included in the publications, such as model parameters or information on the landscape context (such as the amount of residual forest cover). 4We synthesise the main results for 14 species. The level of progress is highly variable: for some species, such as the red squirrel Sciurus vulgaris, a series of long-term, large-scale process-oriented studies has allowed an in-depth understanding of its ecology in fragmented landscapes. On the other hand, with other species such as the bank vole Myodes glareolus, despite a relatively large number of field studies, little progress has been made. [source]