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Expected Rise (expected + rise)

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Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	50%

Selected Abstracts

Can Russia be Competitive in Agriculture?

EUROCHOICES, Issue 3 2003
William M. Liefert
Summary Can Russia be competitive inAgriculture? Russian agriculture currently is not internationally cost competitive. Since the mid-1990s Russia has imported large volumes of meat, while the grain trade has fluctuated in most years between small net imports and exports. Russia has, however, exported large quantities of key agricultural inputs, including 80 per cent of fertilizer output, mainly to EU countries. Research indicates that Russia has a comparative advantage in producing grain compared to meat, but also a comparative advantage in producing agricultural inputs compared to agricultural outputs. The expected real appreciation of the Russian rouble vis-à-vis Western currencies should further damage Russia's cost competitiveness in meat and grain, but this should be offset by modest productivity growth. An expected rise in consumer income, deriving from relatively high annual GDP growth of about 4,5 per cent, should also stimulate demand for meat imports. In spring 2003, Russia imposed tariff rate quotas on its imports of beef and pork, and a pure quota on imports of poultry. For other agricultural commodities, Russia is pushing in its WTO accession negotiations for allowable agricultural import tariffs that are higher than current levels. Taking these changes together, it is likely that Russia will continue as a big meat importer for about the next ten years,with tariff rate quotas probably determining the level of meat imports,and will become a moderate grain exporter. L'agriculture russepourrait-elle être compétitive ? Actuellement, l'agriculture russe n'est pas compétitive. La Russie a importé de gros volumes de viande depuis le milieu des années 90, tandis que la balance des échanges de céréales oscillait entre les faibles excédents et les faibles déficits. Cependant, la Russie est grande exportatrice d'agro-fournitures dont, en particulier, 80% de sa production d'engrais, principalement vers l'Europe. On montre ici que l'avantage comparatif de la Russie se situe dans les céréales plutôt que dans la viande et, surtout, dans les agro-fournitures plutôt que dans les denrées agricoles. La remontée, à laquelle il faut s'attendre, du rouble vis à vis des devises occidentales, devrait encore diminuer la compétitivité de la Russie en matière de viandes et de céréales, ce qui devrait être compensé par des gains de productivité même faibles. La hausse attendue des revenus des consommateurs, engenderée par une croissance élevée du revenu national, de l'ordre de 4 à 5% par an, devrait aussi stimuler la demande de viande importée. Au printemps 2003, la Russie s'est dotée d'un système de droits sur ses importations hors quotas de viande de bæuf et de pore, ainsi que d'un quota d'importation pour les produits avicoles. En ce qui conceme les autres produits agricoles, dans le cadre des négociations relatives à son entrée dans l'OMC, la Russie s'efforce d'obtenir l'autorisation d'augmenter les taxes à l'importation par rapport à leur niveau actuel. Au total done, à un horizon de l'ordre de dix ans, il est probable que la Russie reste un gros importateur de viandes - le niveau des taxes sur le hors quotas déterminant les niveaux d'importation -, et un modeste exportateur de céréales. Kann Russland auf dem Agrarsektorwettbewerbsfähig sein? Die russische Landwirtschaft ist hinsichtlich der Kosten momentan nicht international wettbewerbsfähig. Seit Mitte der 1990er importiert Russland große Mengen an Fleisch, während der Getreidehandel in den meisten Jahren zwischen geringen Nettoimporten und -exporten schwankte. Russland hat jedoch große Mengen an wichtigen landwirtschaftlichen Vorieistungen, unter anderem 80% seiner Düngerproduktion, hauptsächlich in EU-Länder exportiert. Forschungsergebnisse weisen darauf hin, dass Russland in der Produktion von Getreide verglichen mit Fleisch einen komparativen Vorteil besitzt; dies trifft jedoch ebenfalls auf die Produktion von landwirtschaftlichen Vorieistungen verglichen mit landwirtschaftlichen Endprodukten zu. Es ist anzunehmen, dass die erwartete reale Aufwertung des russischen Rubel gegenüber den westlichen Währungen eine zusätzliche Verschlechterung der russischen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit hinsichtlich der Kosten im Bereich Fleisch und Getreide nach sich zieht; dies sollte sich jedoch durch ein moderates Produktivitätswachstum ausgleichen. Der erwartete Anstieg der Verbrauchereinkommen, der sich aus dem relativ hohen jährlichen Bruttoin-landsproduktzuwachs von ca. 4,5 Prozent ableitet, sollte sich ebenfalls stimulierend auf die Nachfrage nach Fleischimporten auswirken. Im Frühjahr 2003 führte Russland Zolltarifkontingente für seine Schweine- und Rindfleischimporte ein und belegte seine Geflügelfleischimporte mit einem Importkontingent. Im Hinblick auf weitere Agrarerzeugnisse drängt Russland in den WTO-Beitrittsverhandlungen darauf, höhere Einfuhrzölle als die gegenwärtig geltenden zuzulassen. In Anbetracht all dieser Veränderungen ist es wahrscheinlich, dass Russland auch für die kommenden zehn Jahre große Mengen an Fleisch importieren,wobei möglicherweise Zolltarifkontingente die Menge bestimmen werden,und sich zu einem mäßigen Getreideexporteur entwickeln wird. [source]

Bitumen and heavy crudes: the energy security problem solved?

OIL AND ENERGY TRENDS, Issue 6 2006
Article first published online: 9 JUN 200
Amid concerns that oil production is close to its all-time peak and worries that the world's reserves may prove insufficient to support the expected rise in demand, oil companies and politicians are advocating the development of the world's enormous untapped reserves of bitumen and extra-heavy crude. The idea has particular appeal in the US, which claims the largest bitumen deposits anywhere in the world. [source]

Negative electron affinity on hydrogen terminated diamond

PHYSICA STATUS SOLIDI (A) APPLICATIONS AND MATERIALS SCIENCE, Issue 11 2005
D. Takeuchi
Abstract Total photoyield spectroscopy (TPYS) is applied to characterize the surface electronic properties of p- and n-type chemical-vapour-deposited (111) homoepitaxial diamond films with hydrogen terminated (H-terminated) surfaces. All experiments on H-terminated high quality diamond show the same threshold energy of 4.4 eV and comparable spectra in the regime 4.4,5.5 eV. A H-terminated intrinsic IIa (100) sample also show the same result. The onset of electron emission at 4.4 eV on p-, intrinsic and n-type diamond indicates that Fermi levels do not affect the sub-band spectra. Obviously, direct excitation of valence-band electrons into the vacuum takes place in the close vicinity of the surface. If we assume a transition from valence band maximum the threshold energy of 4.4 eV gives a negative electron affinity (NEA) of ,1.07 eV (Eg, 5.47 eV). TPYS therefore allows a precise and direct detection of the NEA of H-terminated diamond. It is interesting that the expected rise of photoyield as NEA in the regime hv > 5.47 eV is missing in n-type diamond. We attribute this to a surface space charge region due to ionized phosphorus atoms. (© 2005 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) [source]

Circadian systemic haemodynamics in borderline and mild hypertension

CLINICAL PHYSIOLOGY AND FUNCTIONAL IMAGING, Issue 6 2000
R. Takalo
Circadian variations in blood pressure (BP), stroke volume (SV), heart rate (HR), cardiac output (CO) and total peripheral resistance (TPR) were determined by a pulse contour method from the intra-arterial pulse wave in 32 normotensive (NT), 32 borderline hypertensive (BHT) and 31 hypertensive (HT) middle-aged men. Daytime averages were used as the reference levels. The nocturnal decrease in BP and HR were similar in the three groups. In the night, SV did not change in the NT group, but was increased in the BHT and HT groups. The nocturnal increase in SV may reflect reduced venous capacity causing increased cardiac filling. As a consequence of the difference in SV, the nocturnal CO fall was diminished in the HT group as compared with the NT group. Moreover, TPR had a tendency to decrease in the HT group, which may be considered as a baroreflex response to buffer the expected rise in BP. Five years later, 25 NT, 24 BHT and 19 HT subjects were reassessed using casual BP measurements. In the NT and BHT groups, six and 17 subjects, respectively, had progressed to hypertension. In a logistic regression model for those who became HT, the nocturnal increase in SV was a significant predictor for future hypertension. In conclusion, the results suggest that circadian systemic haemodynamics may be altered before BP is markedly elevated, and that haemodynamic studies might be useful in predicting the development of sustained hypertension. [source]