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Exit Polls (exit + poll)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Humanities and Social Sciences33%

Selected Abstracts

Lies in a Time of Threat: Betrayal Blindness and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election

ANALYSES OF SOCIAL ISSUES & PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 1 2005
Eileen L. Zurbriggen
Exit polls from the 2004 U.S. presidential election indicated overwhelming support for President Bush among voters who said they valued honesty, even though the Bush administration had been sharply criticized for deceiving the public, especially concerning the reasons for invading Iraq. A psychological theory recently developed to help explain memory loss in trauma survivors sheds light on this paradox. Betrayal Trauma Theory (Freyd, 1996) states that memory impairment is greatest when a victim is dependent on the perpetrator. The theory also predicts who will be "blind" to signs of deception,those who are emotionally or financially dependent on the person who is lying. Although every American is dependent on the U.S. President to some extent, religious conservatives may be more psychologically dependent than others. Because they believe their core values are under attack, they depend on powerful leaders such as President Bush to defend these values. This psychological dependence may make it difficult for them to notice the administration's deceptions. [source]

Getting it right on the night, again,the 2010 UK general election exit poll

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES A (STATISTICS IN SOCIETY), Issue 4 2010
Stephen D. Fisher
No abstract is available for this article. [source]

Exit polling in a cold climate: the BBC,ITV experience in Britain in 2005

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES A (STATISTICS IN SOCIETY), Issue 3 2008
John Curtice
Summary., Conducting an exit poll to forecast the outcome of a national election in terms of both votes and seats is particularly difficult in Britain. No official information is available on how individual polling stations voted in the past, use of single-member plurality means that there is no consistent relationship between votes and seats, electors can choose to vote by post and most of those who vote in person do so late in the day. In addition, around one in every six intended exit poll respondents refuses to participate. Methods that were developed to overcome these problems, and their use in the successful 2005 British Broadcasting Corporation,Independent Television exit poll, are described and evaluated. The methodology included a panel design to allow the estimation of electoral change at local level, coherent multiple-regression modelling of multiparty electoral change to capture systematic patterns of variation, probabilistic prediction of constituency winners to account for uncertainty in projected constituency level shares, collection of information about the voting intentions of postal voters before polling day and access to interviewer guesses on the voting behaviour of refusals. The coverage and accuracy of the exit poll data are critically examined, the effect of key aspects of the statistical modelling of the data is assessed and some general lessons are drawn for the design and analysis of electoral exit polls. [source]

Moral Values and Vote Choice in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election

POLITICS & POLICY, Issue 2 2007
Jonathan Knuckey
Scholars and journalists have emphasized the growing importance of cultural issues and a "values divide" in shaping recent political behavior of the American electorate. Discussion of a values-based cleavage has been especially evident since exit polls for the 2004 presidential election revealed that "moral values" topped the list of issues that respondents cited as the "most important" issue in the election. While there has been considerable debate and disagreement over the influence of moral values in 2004, no analysis has performed a crucial test of the moral values hypothesis, namely developing a multivariate model to examine the effect of moral values on vote choice relative to other issue preferences and demographic variables. This article develops such a model using data from the 2004 American National Election Study. Findings suggest that moral values exerted an important effect on vote choice in the 2004 presidential election, even when other predictors of vote choice were included in a multivariate model. [source]

Retrospective Voting in Presidential Primaries

PRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 4 2010
WILLIAM G. MAYER
Though retrospective performance evaluations are now widely appreciated as a major influence on voting in general elections, their influence in presidential primaries has rarely been noticed. Using exit polls conducted by major media organizations over the last nine election cycles, this article shows that retrospective voting is an important, indeed dominant, factor in two types of situations: when an incumbent president is running for reelection, and when an incumbent vice president is seeking to become his party's next presidential candidate. This finding, in turn, helps explain two significant institutional features of the contemporary presidential nomination process: why most recent presidents have been renominated without much difficulty, and why the vice presidency has become such a good launching pad for presidential candidacies. [source]

Polls and Elections: Dixie's Kingmakers: Stability and Change in Southern Presidential Primary Electorates

PRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 2 2009
SETH C. MCKEE
Recent presidential primaries have taken place against the backdrop of a secular realignment in the South, a shift that carries important consequences for nomination politics. In this article, we use statewide exit polls to trace changes between 1988 and 2008 in the Southern Democratic and Republican primary electorates. We find that the Democratic electorate has grown strikingly more liberal, more racially diverse, and less heavily Protestant over the last 20 years. Meanwhile, the Republican Party has solidified into a conservative, almost exclusively white primary electorate. We also identify a growing partisan gender gap in the region. The findings suggest that it will be increasingly difficult for a centrist white Democrat, such as Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton, to use the South as a launching pad to the nomination. In addition, the growing polarization of the parties' Southern primary electorates will likely continue to widen the ideological distance between the major presidential nominees. [source]

Elections and public polling: Will the media get online polling right?

PSYCHOLOGY & MARKETING, Issue 12 2002
Dennis W. Johnson
Public survey research came in for much criticism during the 2000 elections. The greatest controversy centered on the flawed data coming from the Voter News Service exit polls in Florida. For the long run, however, a more important issue concerned the validity and media reporting of surveys conducted online. Most online surveys are pseudo-polls, whose findings have no merit and should not be reported by the media. Their value is entertainment only. The fundamental problems with online surveys are that the samples drawn are unrepresentative of the population as a whole and the participants are self-selected. Two survey firms are trying to resolve the issue of sampling errors, using fundamentally different strategies, and spending enormous sums of money to create truly representative panels. The 2000 election results showed that online polling, done right, can be even more accurate than traditional telephone surveys. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. [source]