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Exchange Rate Changes (exchange + rate_change)
Selected AbstractsMeasuring the Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Investment in Australian Manufacturing Industry*THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 2006ROBYN SWIFT This paper examines the relationship between exchange rates and investment in Australian manufacturing between 1988 and 2001. The effects of exchange rates on investment are found to vary positively with the export share of sales and negatively with the share of imported inputs into production, with lower price-over-cost mark-ups increasing the response. For Australian manufacturing, a 10 per cent real appreciation of the Australian dollar leads to an average 8.0 per cent decrease in total investment through the export share channel, and an average 3.8 per cent increase through the imported input share channel, with most of the response occurring through investment in equipment, plant and machinery. [source] Monetary Policy and the Taylor Principle in Open EconomiesINTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2006Ludger Linnemann Nowadays, central banks mostly conduct monetary policy by setting nominal interest rates. A widely held view is that central banks can stabilize inflation if they follow the Taylor principle, which requires raising the nominal interest rate more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation. Is this also correct in an economy open to international trade? Exchange rate changes triggered by interest rate policy might interfere with inflation stabilization if they alter import prices. The paper shows that this destabilizing effect can prevail if (a) the central bank uses consumer (rather than producer) prices as its inflation indicator or directly reacts to currency depreciation, and (b) if it bases interest rate decisions on expected future inflation. Thus, if the central bank looks at current inflation rates and ignores exchange rate changes, Taylor-style interest rate setting policies are advisable in open economies as well. [source] Exchange rate and foreign price effects on UK inflationECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 2 2002Graeme Chamberlin The issue of incomplete pass-through from exchange rate changes to domestic inflation has received considerable attention. Most models try to account for this by using a variety of assumptions about the costs of changing prices. These suggest complete pass-through, but only after the possible elapse of a considerable delay. In contrast, in this article Graeme Chamberlin and Brian Henry provide evidence that exchange rate effects on inflation may be non-linear and, more specifically, subject to thresholds. Their tentative results suggest this may be important in describing price-setting behaviour in the UK. [source] Interdependencies between Monetary Policy and Foreign Exchange Interventions under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Brazil and the Czech RepublicINTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2010Jean-Yves Gnabo Inflation-targeting central banks often explicitly reserve the right to intervene in foreign exchange markets when the exchange rate ,deviates from fundamentals' and/or ,displays excessive volatility'. In the case of emerging markets, central banks can often ill afford to neglect exchange rate developments when setting monetary policy because of a high pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes to domestic prices. As a result, interventions and monetary policy are interrelated, a hypothesis that has been overlooked in the literature. To bridge this gap, this paper includes monetary policy indicators in the estimation of intervention reaction functions for Brazil and the Czech Republic since the adoption of inflation targeting. Our main finding is that interventions take place independently of the contemporaneous monetary policy setting in Brazil, but not in the Czech Republic, where both policies appear to be coordinated. [source] Monetary Policy and the Taylor Principle in Open EconomiesINTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2006Ludger Linnemann Nowadays, central banks mostly conduct monetary policy by setting nominal interest rates. A widely held view is that central banks can stabilize inflation if they follow the Taylor principle, which requires raising the nominal interest rate more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation. Is this also correct in an economy open to international trade? Exchange rate changes triggered by interest rate policy might interfere with inflation stabilization if they alter import prices. The paper shows that this destabilizing effect can prevail if (a) the central bank uses consumer (rather than producer) prices as its inflation indicator or directly reacts to currency depreciation, and (b) if it bases interest rate decisions on expected future inflation. Thus, if the central bank looks at current inflation rates and ignores exchange rate changes, Taylor-style interest rate setting policies are advisable in open economies as well. [source] Exchange rates and fundamentals: a non-linear relationship?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2007Paul De Grauwe Abstract We test whether the relationship between changes in the nominal exchange rate and changes in its underlying fundamentals has non-linear features. In order to do so, we extend the Markov-switching model as proposed by McConnell and Perez Quiros (2000) and Dewachter (2001) and test it using a sample of low- and high-inflation countries. The empirical analysis shows that for the high-inflation countries the relationship between news in the fundamentals and the exchange rate changes is stable and significant. This is not the case, however, for the low-inflation countries, where frequent regime switches occur. We develop a non-linear model based on the existence of transactions costs that could explain our empirical findings. We find that this simple non-linear model is capable of replicating the empirical evidence uncovered in this paper. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through,INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2004Joseph E. Gagnon Abstract The pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation appears to have declined in many countries since the 1980s. We develop a theoretical model that attributes the change in the rate of pass-through to increased emphasis on inflation stabilization by many central banks. This hypothesis is tested on 20 industrial countries between 1971 and 2003. We find widespread evidence of a robust and statistically significant link between estimated rates of pass-through and inflation variability. We also find evidence that observed monetary policy behaviour may be a factor in the declining rate of pass-through. Published in 2004 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Volatility of changes in G-5 exchange rates and its market transmission mechanismINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2002Bwo-Nung Huang Abstract This paper studies the transmission mechanism of G-5 exchange rate changes within each market and across the three major markets: London, New York and Tokyo. It is found that the volatility in both the London and New York markets leads that of Tokyo. In addition, the New York market slightly leads the London market in its volatility. After the Euro monetary system crisis, the frequencies of both the volatility spillover effect from London to New York and mutual feedback phenomena have increased. Furthermore, the volatility spillover effects from both London and New York to Tokyo have been on the rise after the Asian financial debacle. Within the framework of the causality model, we find better forecasting performance in predicting G-5 exchange rates across the three markets. It outperforms the traditional ARMA model in terms of both in- and out-sample forecasting. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Exchange rates, prices and money: A long-run perspectiveINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2001Paul De Grauwe Abstract In this paper we analyse the long-run proportionality and neutrality propositions between inflation and money growth and between exchange rate changes and money growth. Using a sample of 100 countries over a thirty-year period we find that the evidence in favour of these propositions is weak for the low inflation countries and very strong for the high inflation countries. We propose an explanation based on productivity shocks and transaction costs. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Monetary policy and the sterling exchange rate,THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 512 2006David Cobham This article introduces the three contributions to the Feature, which address issues raised by the sterling appreciation of 1996,97 and the subsequent prolonged overvaluation. Cobham discusses the MPC's understanding of exchange rate changes and examines policy makers' responses to the proposal that policy should respond to exchange rate misalignments. Kirsanova, Leith and Wren-Lewis construct a ,new open economy macroeconomics' model with international risk sharing shocks, in which the welfare function derived includes a term in the ,terms of trade gap'. Allsopp, Kara and Nelson investigate the exchange rate-prices pass-through and how imports should be modelled, and draw out the policy implications. [source] EXCHANGE RATE STABILISATION, LEARNING AND THE TAYLOR PRINCIPLEAUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 2 2007Article first published online: 30 MAY 200, HEINZ-PETER SPAHN The paper explores whether central banks can keep their interest rates independent from given foreign rates, and to what extent interest policies designed to stabilise nominal exchange rate changes can be applied instead of, or in addition to, the traditional interest rate response to inflation gaps. This modification of a Taylor Rule is analysed in a simple macro model with some New Keynesian features. Information is imperfect; agents cannot build rational expectations but try to learn ,true' market relations. Results show that the Taylor Principle can be generalised in an open economy with flexible exchange rates. [source] THE J CURVE: CHINA VERSUS HER TRADING PARTNERSBULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee F31 ABSTRACT The short-run effects of currency depreciation are said to be different from its long-run effects. In the short run, the trade balance deteriorates and improvement comes after some time; hence, the J-curve phenomenon. Previous studies that tested the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes in China employed aggregate trade data and provided mixed results. Indeed, most of them concluded that real depreciation has no long-run impact on the Chinese trade balance. In this paper, we disaggregate the data by country and using recent advances in time series modelling estimate a trade balance model between China and her 13 major trading partners. We show that real depreciation of the Chinese currency has a favourable impact on her trade balance with a few partners, especially the USA. Not much support is found for the J-curve hypothesis. [source] Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Bilateral Agricultural TradeCANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2009Jungho Baek This paper uses an autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration to examine the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. Results show that, in the long run, while U.S. agricultural exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates and foreign income, U.S. agricultural imports are mostly responsive to the U.S. domestic income. In the short run, on the other hand, both the bilateral exchange rates and income in the United States and its trading partners are found to have significant impacts on U.S. agricultural exports and imports. Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé un modèle autorégressif à retards échelonnés (autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration) pour examiner les effets à court et à long terme des variations de taux de change sur le commerce bilatéral des produits agricoles entre les États-Unis et ses dix principaux partenaires commerciaux. Les résultats ont montré que, à long terme, bien que les exportations agricoles des États-Unis soient très sensibles aux taux de change bilatéraux et au revenu étranger, les importations agricoles des États-Unis sont principalement sensibles au revenu intérieur des États-Unis. À court terme, par contre, les taux de change bilatéraux et le revenu des États-Unis et de ses partenaires commerciaux ont des répercussions considérables sur les exportations et les importations agricoles des États-Unis. [source] Pricing to Market Behavior by Canadian and U.S. Agri-food Exporters: Evidence from Wheat, Pulse and ApplesCANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2003Richard Carew A fixed-effects model to control for time variation in marginal costs is employed to pinpoint evidence of price discriminatory behavior of Canadian and U.S. exporters of agri-food products. We test for evidence of pricing to market behavior and whether price discrimination or commodity/country characteristics may provide a plausible explanation. A distinguishing feature of our approach is to examine the time-series properties of the data by the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller and recently developed panel unit root test. The panel data set employed in this paper consists of annual exchange rates and export prices for three agri-food products (wheat, pulse and apples) exported by Canada and the U.S. in foreign markets during 1980,98. Our fixed-effects model suggests that U.S. exporters are sensitive to exchange rate changes, while Canadian exporters in most cases raised price markups in response to a depreciated currency in overseas markets. The results highlight the differences in pricing policy that both countries employ to merchandise agri-food products in export markets. Les auteurs ont recouru à un modèle à effets fixes pour contrôler la fluctuation des coûts marginaux dans le temps et montrer que les exportateurs canadiens et américains de produits agroalimentaires se comportent différemment dans l'établissement des prix. Ils ont tenté de vérifier si ce comportement varie avec les cours en vigueur sur le marché et essayé d'établir s'il s'explique par une discrimination au niveau des prix ou par les paramètres propres au produit ou au pays. Une particularité de cette approche est qu'elle tient compte des propriétés historiques des données en recourant à la version augmentée du test classique de Dickey Fuller et au tout nouveau test de racine unitaire reposant sur les panels. Le jeu de données recueillies par panel dont les auteurs se sont servis comprend le taux du change annuel et le prix d'exportation de trois produits agroalimentaires (blé, légumineuses à graine et pommes) que le Canada et les États-Unis ont écoulés sur les marchés étrangers entre 1980 et 1998. Le modèle à effets fixes laisse croire que les exportateurs américains sont sensibles au taux du change alors que, dans la plupart des cas, leurs homologues canadiens majorent les prix davantage consécutivement à une dépréciation des devises à l'étranger. Les résultats font ressortir les divergences entre les politiques de fixation des prix qu'emploient les deux pays pour écouler leurs produits agroalimentaires sur les marchés étrangers. [source] | ||||||||||