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Exchange Markets (exchange + market)
Kinds of Exchange Markets Terms modified by Exchange Markets Selected AbstractsInformation and volatility links in the foreign exchange marketACCOUNTING & FINANCE, Issue 2 2009Sirimon Treepongkaruna G12; G14 Abstract We apply the trading model of Fleming et al (1998). to a number of currency markets. The model posits that two markets can have common volatility structures as a result of receiving common information and from cross-hedging activity where a position in one currency is used to hedge risk in a position taken in another. Our results imply that the model is effective in identifying common information flows and volatility spillovers in the currency markets and that some of these effects are lost when simply examining raw correlations. A series of specification tests of the 21 bivariate systems that are examined provides support for the trading model in the foreign exchange context. [source] Asymmetric information, price discovery and macroeconomic announcements in FX market: do top trading banks know more?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2010Kate Phylaktis Abstract This study investigates information asymmetry in the foreign exchange market by testing the hypothesis that top trading banks possess superior information on the macroeconomy because they process greater order flow, which, according to the micro-structure literature, helps them aggregate the dispersed information and feel the general movements of the economy. Examining the information share of the banks in the Reuters EFX system using indicative GBP,$US data over 5 years, we find that the top 10 banks, out of 100 quoting banks in the market, have a monthly average share of over 70% of total market information, and around 80% during some US macroannouncements. These results suggest the possibility of private information over public news in the foreign exchange market. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] When do central banks prefer to intervene secretly?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2009Montserrat Ferré Abstract Central banks often intervene secretly in the foreign exchange market. This secrecy seems to be at odds with the signalling channel. In this article we will analyse when a central bank intervening in the foreign exchange rate market purely through the signalling channel would prefer to act secretly or publicly. By using a microstructure model, we will show that the consistency of the intervention with fundamentals, the volume of noise trading, the weight given to the effectiveness of intervention and the degree of superior information held by the central bank will influence the decision to intervene secretly or publicly. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Chartism and exchange rate volatility,INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2007Mikael Bask Abstract The purpose of this paper is to implement theoretically, the observation that the relative importance of fundamental versus technical analysis in the foreign exchange market depends on the time horizon in currency trade. For shorter time horizons, more weight is placed on technical analysis, while more weight is placed on fundamental analysis for longer horizons. The theoretical framework is the Dornbusch overshooting model, where moving averages is the technical trading technique used by the chartists. The perfect foresight path near long-run equilibrium is derived, and it is shown that the magnitude of exchange rate overshooting is larger than in the Dornbusch model. Specifically, the extent of overshooting depends inversely on the time horizon in currency trade. How changes in the model's structural parameters endogenously affect this time horizon and the magnitude of overshooting along the perfect foresight path are also derived. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Cointegration, Efficiency and Forecasting in the Currency MarketJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 1-2 2001Wilson H. S. Tong Existing literature on using the cointegration approach to examine the efficiency of the foreign exchange market gives mixed results. Arguments typically focus on econometric testing techniques, with fractional cointegration being the most current one. This paper tries to look at the issue from an economic perspective. It shows that the cointegrating relationship, whether cointegrated or fractionally cointegrated, is found mainly among the currencies of the European Monetary System which are set to fluctuate within a given range. Hence, there is no inconsistency with the notion of market efficiency. Yet, exploiting such a cointegrating relationship is helpful in currency forecasting. There is some evidence that restricting the forecasting model to consist of only cointegrated currencies improves forecasting efficiency. [source] THE INFLUENCE OF FUNDAMENTALS ON EXCHANGE RATES: FINDINGS FROM ANALYSES OF NEWS EFFECTSJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 4 2010Rafael R. Rebitzky Abstract As we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market, we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research. The first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s (see, for example, Dornbusch). Almost at the same time Meese and Rogoff published their influential paper, revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk. This finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field. The eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re-establishment of the,raison d'ętre,of exchange rate economics. This work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal, i.e. shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research. Thus, its major findings are, first, fundamental news does matter, whereas non-fundamental news matters to a lesser degree. Second, news influences exchange rates via two separated channels, i.e. incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow. Third, with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time. [source] A disaggregated empirical analysis of the determinants of IMF arrangements: Does one model fit all?JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 7 2009Graham Bird JEL: F33, F3 Abstract Does one model fit all when it comes to the determinants of IMF programs? Certainly claims have been made by the IMF that capital account crisis (CAC) countries are discernibly different in terms of the characteristics that lead them to borrow from it, while other research has claimed that it is only Asian economies that are different from the rest. This paper sets out to examine these issues. It tests various forms of a fairly conventional model to see whether some forms better fit certain groups of countries than others. It then uses the favoured models to estimate the probability of countries having an IMF arrangement. In particular it examines countries that have been identified by the Fund as CAC countries, but it also looks at a number of comparator countries. The findings suggest that there are some differences between low income and middle income countries. Pressures in the foreign exchange market are significant for the latter but not for the former. The paper also discusses differences between regions and within regions. Broadly speaking the findings confirm that Asian economies around the time of the 1997/1998 crisis tended to turn to the IMF for financial support more quickly than would have been anticipated on the basis of the existing best-fitting models. The paper also discusses the implications of the findings for policy and for the reform of the IMF. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Foreign exchange pressures in Latin America: Does debt matter?JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 5 2008Alex Mandilaras Abstract Latin American countries have been in the eye of economic and financial storms several times in recent years. Advice from the International Monetary Fund has consistently highlighted the need for sound fiscal policies and lower debt levels. But is public debt relevant? Following a brief discussion of the theoretical issues involved, this paper examines empirically the relationship between public indebtedness and pressures in the foreign exchange market. Alternative measures are used to capture the latter and the analysis controls for a de facto classification of exchange rate regimes. Estimations of static and dynamic panels for 28 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries report substantial fiscal effects. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Classical and Impulse Stochastic Control of the Exchange Rate Using Interest Rates and ReservesMATHEMATICAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2000Abel Cadenillas We consider the problem of a Central Bank that wants the exchange rate to be as close as possible to a given target, and in order to do that uses both the interest rate level and interventions in the foreign exchange market. We model this as a mixed classical-impulse stochastic control problem, and provide for the first time a solution to that kind of problem. We give examples of solutions that allow us to perform an interesting economic analysis of the optimal strategy of the Central Bank. [source] Price discovery in electronic foreign exchange markets: The sterling/dollar marketTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 6 2010Russell Poskitt This study finds that GLOBEX has a marginally lower Hasbrouck, J. (1995) information share than Reuters D3000 in the electronic sterling/dollar foreign exchange market when returns are computed from high frequency data on either midquotes or transaction prices. However, GLOBEX's information share declines sharply when returns are computed from a mixture of GLOBEX transaction prices and Reuters D3000 midquotes. This helps explain why prior studies using this latter methodology report relatively low information shares for GLOBEX in the yen/dollar market. Variations in GLOBEX's information share on an intraday basis can be explained by variations in relative liquidity, spreads and price volatility. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:590,606, 2010 [source] The impact of the euro on Europe's financial marketsFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 3 2003Gabriele Galati This paper presents an overview of the impact of the introduction of the euro on Europe's financial structure over the first four years since the start of EMU. It analyzes changes in money markets, bond markets, equity markets and foreign exchange markets. Euro's role in originating or catalyzing trends has been uneven across the spectrum of financial markets. From the supply side, banks and investors in fixed income markets have become more focused on the characteristics of individual borrowers rather than the nationality of the issuer and have built up expertise to evaluate credit risk. European equity markets have also been affected by the enhanced ability of investors to build strategies with a pan-European perspective as prices increasingly reflected risk factors specific to industrial sectors rather than individual countries. On the borrower side, EMU has increased the attractiveness of market-based financing methods by allowing debt issuers to tap institutional portfolios across the euro area. Lower barriers to cross-border financial transactions have also increased the contestability of the market for financial services, be it at the wholesale or the retail level. The introduction of the euro has also highlighted the shortcomings of existing institutional structures and areas where excessive focus on narrowly defined interests may stand in the way of realizing the full potential benefits from the new environment. Diverging legal and institutional infrastructures and market practices can impede further financial market development and deepening. Hence, the euro has put a premium on cooperation between national authorities and institution as a means of achieving a more harmonized financial environment. The impact of EMU on depth in foreign exchange markets has been less clear-cut, as volatility, spreads, trading volumes and liquidity appear not to have changed in a substantial way. Overall, it seems that the new currency has made some progress towards the goal of becoming a currency of international stature that would rival that of the US dollar. However, a number of the necessary next steps towards achieving this goal are also among the trickiest to implement. [source] Spillover Dynamics of Central Bank InterventionsGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2004Frank H. Westerhoff Foreign exchange markets; central bank intervention; technical and fundamental analysis Abstract. Central banks frequently intervene in foreign exchange markets to reduce volatility or to correct misalignments. Such operations may be successful if they drive away destabilizing speculators. However, the speculators do not simply vanish but may reappear on other foreign exchange markets. Using a model in which traders are able to switch between foreign exchange markets, we demonstrate that while a central bank indeed has several means at hand to stabilize a specific market, the variability of the other markets depends on how the interventions are implemented. [source] Interdependencies between Monetary Policy and Foreign Exchange Interventions under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Brazil and the Czech RepublicINTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2010Jean-Yves Gnabo Inflation-targeting central banks often explicitly reserve the right to intervene in foreign exchange markets when the exchange rate ,deviates from fundamentals' and/or ,displays excessive volatility'. In the case of emerging markets, central banks can often ill afford to neglect exchange rate developments when setting monetary policy because of a high pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes to domestic prices. As a result, interventions and monetary policy are interrelated, a hypothesis that has been overlooked in the literature. To bridge this gap, this paper includes monetary policy indicators in the estimation of intervention reaction functions for Brazil and the Czech Republic since the adoption of inflation targeting. Our main finding is that interventions take place independently of the contemporaneous monetary policy setting in Brazil, but not in the Czech Republic, where both policies appear to be coordinated. [source] The effect of a transaction tax on exchange rate volatilityINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2010Markku Lanne Abstract We argue that a transaction tax is likely to amplify, not dampen, volatility in foreign exchange markets. Our argument stems from the decentralized trading practice and the presumable discrepancy between ,informed' and ,uninformed' traders' valuations. Given that the informed valuations are likely to be less dispersed, a transaction tax penalizes informed trades disproportionately, leading to increased volatility. Empirical support for this prediction is found by investigating the effect of transaction costs on the volatility of DEM/USD and JPY/USD returns. High-frequency data are used and an increase in transaction costs is found to have a significant positive effect on volatility. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] What determines transaction costs in foreign exchange markets?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2008Tarun Ramadorai Abstract Using detailed data on the currency transactions of institutional fund managers, this paper shows that funds that experience high returns on their currency holdings also incur lower transaction costs on their currency trades. This finding holds both in the cross section, i.e. funds that perform better on average incur lower average transaction costs, as well as in time series, i.e. funds that do better over the past two months incur lower transaction costs on subsequent transactions. The results are consistent with foreign exchange dealers bidding for information from successful traders. They are also consistent with foreign exchange dealers exploiting price inelastic demand for foreign currency trades, or funds acting as secondary liquidity providers in foreign exchange markets. The paper also investigates the role of fund size, transaction frequency and return volatility on transactions costs. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Discrete policy interventions and rational forecast errors in foreign exchange markets: the uncovered interest parity hypothesis revisitedINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2002Dimitris G. Kirikos Abstract This paper combines policy response explanations of the uncovered interest parity puzzle with a time series approach that accounts for discrete central bank interventions. When monetary authorities manage the interest rate differential through an anti-inflationary policy rule, which allows for discrete shifts, then a stochastic segmented trends representation seems appropriate for the exchange rate and the interest rate differential series. In this setting, rational forecast errors are possible, and a test of the uncovered parity hypothesis, based on the cross-equation restrictions on a Markov switching process, suggests that the parity relationship cannot be rejected for three European currencies vis-ŕ-vis the US dollar. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange marketsJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 5 2007Jaehun Chung We examine directional predictability in foreign exchange markets using a model-free statistical evaluation procedure. Based on a sample of foreign exchange spot rates and futures prices in six major currencies, we document strong evidence that the directions of foreign exchange returns are predictable not only by the past history of foreign exchange returns, but also the past history of interest rate differentials, suggesting that the latter can be a useful predictor of the directions of future foreign exchange rates. This evidence becomes stronger when the direction of larger changes is considered. We further document that despite the weak conditional mean dynamics of foreign exchange returns, directional predictability can be explained by strong dependence derived from higher-order conditional moments such as the volatility, skewness and kurtosis of past foreign exchange returns. Moreover, the conditional mean dynamics of interest rate differentials contributes significantly to directional predictability. We also examine the co-movements between two foreign exchange rates, particularly the co-movements of joint large changes. There exists strong evidence that the directions of joint changes are predictable using past foreign exchange returns and interest rate differentials. Furthermore, both individual currency returns and interest rate differentials are also useful in predicting the directions of joint changes. Several sources can explain this directional predictability of joint changes, including the level and volatility of underlying currency returns. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE PROFITABILITY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS?JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 4 2007Cheol-Ho Park Abstract The purpose of this paper is to review the evidence on the profitability of technical analysis. The empirical literature is categorized into two groups, ,early' and ,modern' studies, according to the characteristics of testing procedures. Early studies indicate that technical trading strategies are profitable in foreign exchange markets and futures markets, but not in stock markets. Modern studies indicate that technical trading strategies consistently generate economic profits in a variety of speculative markets at least until the early 1990s. Among a total of 95 modern studies, 56 studies find positive results regarding technical trading strategies, 20 studies obtain negative results, and 19 studies indicate mixed results. Despite the positive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies, most empirical studies are subject to various problems in their testing procedures, e.g. data snooping, ex post selection of trading rules or search technologies, and difficulties in estimation of risk and transaction costs. Future research must address these deficiencies in testing in order to provide conclusive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies. [source] Currency forecasting based on an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression modelJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 8 2005Winston T. Lin Abstract This paper proposes to forecast foreign exchange rates by means of an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression (EC-SUNR) model and, simultaneously, explore the interrelationships among currencies from newly industrializing economies with those of highly industrialized countries. Based on the empirical results, we find that the EC-SUNR model improves on the performance of forecasting foreign exchange rates in comparison with an intrinsically nonlinear dynamic speed of adjustment model that has been shown to outperform several other important models in the forecasting literature. We also find evidence showing that the foreign exchange markets of the newly industrializing countries are influenced by those of the highly industrialized countries and vice versa, and that such interrelationships affect the accuracy of currency forecasting. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under Proportional Transaction Costs in Finite Discrete TimeMATHEMATICAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2004Walter SchachermayerArticle first published online: 24 DEC 200 We prove a version of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, which applies to Kabanov's modeling of foreign exchange markets under transaction costs. The financial market is described by a d×d matrix-valued stochastic process (,t)Tt=0 specifying the mutual bid and ask prices between d assets. We introduce the notion of "robust no arbitrage," which is a version of the no-arbitrage concept, robust with respect to small changes of the bid-ask spreads of (,t)Tt=0. The main theorem states that the bid-ask process (,t)Tt=0 satisfies the robust no-arbitrage condition iff it admits a strictly consistent pricing system. This result extends the theorems of Harrison-Pliska and Kabanov-Stricker pertaining to the case of finite ,, as well as the theorem of Dalang, Morton, and Willinger and Kabanov, Rásonyi, and Stricker, pertaining to the case of general ,. An example of a 5 × 5 -dimensional process (,t)2t=0 shows that, in this theorem, the robust no-arbitrage condition cannot be replaced by the so-called strict no-arbitrage condition, thus answering negatively a question raised by Kabanov, Rásonyi, and Stricker. [source] Price discovery in electronic foreign exchange markets: The sterling/dollar marketTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 6 2010Russell Poskitt This study finds that GLOBEX has a marginally lower Hasbrouck, J. (1995) information share than Reuters D3000 in the electronic sterling/dollar foreign exchange market when returns are computed from high frequency data on either midquotes or transaction prices. However, GLOBEX's information share declines sharply when returns are computed from a mixture of GLOBEX transaction prices and Reuters D3000 midquotes. This helps explain why prior studies using this latter methodology report relatively low information shares for GLOBEX in the yen/dollar market. Variations in GLOBEX's information share on an intraday basis can be explained by variations in relative liquidity, spreads and price volatility. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:590,606, 2010 [source] Do futures lead price discovery in electronic foreign exchange markets?THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 2 2009Juan Cabrera Using intraday data, this study investigates the contribution to the price discovery of Euro and Japanese Yen exchange rates in three foreign exchange markets based on electronic trading systems: the CME GLOBEX regular futures, E-mini futures, and the EBS interdealer spot market. Contrary to evidence in equity markets and more recent evidence in foreign exchange markets, the spot market is found to consistently lead the price discovery process for both currencies during the sample period. Furthermore, E-mini futures do not contribute more to the price discovery than the electronically traded regular futures. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:137,156, 2009 [source] Price Common Volatility or Volume Common Volatility?ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 2 2004Evidence from Taiwan's Exchange Rate, Stock Markets This paper investigates the common volatility structure of stock and exchange rate markets of Taiwan. The two markets are often linked together and we are interested in knowing whether price or volume is a good proxy to pursue this issue. We claim that Taiwanese government interventions distort the timing of conventional price volatility clustering in the two markets. The unrestricted trading volumes reveal more information regarding the market than price. We find that common volatility does exist in the stock and exchange markets and this fact is uncovered more easily by using trading volume than by using prices. [source] The development of biocommodities and the role of North West European ports in biomass chainsBIOFUELS, BIOPRODUCTS AND BIOREFINING, Issue 3 2009Johan P. M. Sanders Abstract Biomass-derived commodities will compete with commodities derived from fossil fuels in 20 years' time. This perspective will explore the economic conditions that will govern the development of, and the trade in these biocommodities. Markets for biocommodities will open up new revenues for both the agricultural and the chemical sector. We shall explore the importance of the biorefinery concept for the establishment of these new markets. Biorefinery is the sustainable processing of biomass into a spectrum of marketable products and energy. Trade in biobased substances will be greatly enhance if standard ,commodities' are defined and produced in several places in the world. Now we turn to the second question of this perspective: where will biocommodities be produced and where will they be used? The choice of where to process the biomass will depend on the type of biomass, transport distances, bulk density, decay rate, ease of handling, the type of process(ses), the presence of markets, the cost of labor, and logistical conditions. Ports, both on the exporting side and on the importing side, will have a major influence on the formation of biomass chains. In export ports, crude or partially pre-treated biomass will be collected and processed/ transformed into a biocommodity. Existing industries, such as feed production, can be combined with the production of biocommodities, The role of port areas and chemical industries in several biomass chains are shown. The combination of a major port and major application markets for biomass, such as feed industry, chemical industry, biofuels industry and power generation, will allow for the formation of a biomass hub. The formation of a biomass hub will be a step-by-step process in which services and exchange markets are added to existing logistical and industrial structures. The port of Rotterdam has an excellent starting point to become a hub in international biomass trade and processing. In the near future, 5,15 years from now, international biomass trade will become standardized and biocommodities will be defined, partly on the basis of technologies still in development. © 2009 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||