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Ex Ante Prediction (ex + ante_prediction)
Selected AbstractsEx post and ex ante prediction of unobserved multivariate time series: a structural-model based approachJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 1 2007Fabio H. Nieto Abstract A methodology for estimating high-frequency values of an unobserved multivariate time series from low-frequency values of and related information to it is presented in this paper. This is an optimal solution, in the multivariate setting, to the problem of ex post prediction, disaggregation, benchmarking or signal extraction of an unobservable stochastic process. Also, the problem of extrapolation or ex ante prediction is optimally solved and, in this context, statistical tests are developed for checking online the ocurrence of extreme values of the unobserved time series and consistency of future benchmarks with the present and past observed information. The procedure is based on structural or unobserved component models, whose assumptions and specification are validated with the data alone.,,Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Employee Stock Option Fair-Value Estimates: Do Managerial Discretion and Incentives Explain Accuracy?,CONTEMPORARY ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006Leslie Hodder Abstract We examine the determinants of managers' use of discretion over employee stock option (ESO) valuation-model inputs that determine ESO fair values. We also explore the consequences of such discretion. Firms exercise considerable discretion over all model inputs, and this discretion results in material differences in ESO fair-value estimates. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that a large proportion of firms exercise value-increasing discretion. Importantly, we find that using discretion improves predictive accuracy for about half of our sample firms. Moreover, we find that both opportunistic and informational managerial incentives together explain the accuracy of firms' ESO fair-value estimates. Partitioning on the direction of discretion improves our understanding of managerial incentives. Our analysis confirms that financial statement readers can use mandated contextual disclosures to construct powerful ex ante predictions of ex post accuracy. [source] Following START: Risk Acceptance and the 1991,1992 Presidential Nuclear InitiativesFOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS, Issue 1 2008Matthew Fuhrmann In September 1991, U.S. President George H.W. Bush launched the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs), which were unilateral measures that led to the largest reductions in the American and Soviet/Russian nuclear arsenals to date. Despite their eventual success, the United States took on significant risks in launching the PNIs. To uncover the best theoretical explanation for their onset, this article uses realism, neorealism, the bureaucratic politics model, expected utility theory, and prospect theory to generate ex ante predictions regarding nuclear arms control at the end of the Cold War. It then tests the theories' predictions against the empirical record. The results suggest that a focus on an individual decision maker,President Bush,is necessary to fully understand the PNIs and that an explanation rooted in prospect theory offers the most explanatory power. This study speaks to an important debate in discipline regarding the significance of individuals, while underscoring the value of exploring foreign policy decision making from multiple levels of analysis. It also advances the literatures on risk acceptance and prospect theory by shifting their applications away from militarized conflict and crises to diplomatic negotiations and cooperation. [source] | ||||||||||