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Event History Analysis (event + history_analysis)
Selected AbstractsSurvival and Event History Analysis: A Process Point of View by Odd O. Aalen, Ørnulf Borgan, Håkon K. GjessingINTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2009Jayanta K. Ghosh No abstract is available for this article. [source] Survival and Event History Analysis: A Process Point of View by AALEN, O. O., BORGAN, O., and GJESSING, H. K.BIOMETRICS, Issue 2 2009Patricia Grambsch No abstract is available for this article. [source] The Substitution Hypothesis: The Impact of Premarital Liaisons and Human Capital on Marital TimingJOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND FAMILY, Issue 2 2002Monica Gaughan Nonmarital romantic and sexual relationships occur concurrently with the human capital acquisition process and contribute to delaying or forgoing marriage. Event history analysis is used to model the marital hazard rate of 341 White women born between 1960 and 1963 in a Western metropolitan area. In addition to family background, adolescent characteristics, and employment and educational histories, the structure of the women's premarital liaisons is shown to play an important role in the timing of first marriage. The greater a woman's involvement in nonmarital romantic and sexual activity, the less likely she is to be married by age 27,30. Human capital characteristics and the dynamics of relationship histories operate independently to explain marital timing. This supports the theory that women substitute premarital liaisons for marriage early in the adult life course. However, there is no evidence that highly educated women, or those who are students, are more or less likely to do so than others. [source] Changes in Wives' Income: Effects on Marital Happiness, Psychological Well-Being, and the Risk of DivorceJOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND FAMILY, Issue 2 2001Stacy J. Rogers We investigate the effects of increases in married women's actual income and in their proportion of total family income on marital happiness, psychological well-being, and the likelihood of divorce. We use data from a sample of 1,047 married individuals (not couples) in medium-duration marriages, drawn from a five-wave panel survey begun in 1980 and continuing to 1997. Structural equation modeling is used to assess the impact of increases in married women's absolute and relative income from 1980 to 1988 on the marital happiness and well-being of married men and women in 1988. Event history analysis is used to determine how these changes affect the risk of divorce between 1988 and 1997. We find that increases in married women's absolute and relative income significantly increase their marital happiness and well-being. Increases in married women's absolute income generally have nonsignificant effects for married men. However, married men's well-being is significantly lower when married women's proportional contributions to the total family income are increased. The likelihood of divorce is not significantly affected by increases in married women's income. Nevertheless, increases in married women's income may indirectly lower the risk of divorce by increasing women's marital happiness. [source] Effects of pets on asthma development up to 8 years of age: the PIAMA studyALLERGY, Issue 8 2009M. Kerkhof Background:, Recall bias may provide discrepant relationships of pet exposure with sensitization and asthma development. We studied prospectively effects of pets at home on development of sensitization, asthma and respiratory symptoms from birth up to age 8 years. Methods:, Event history analysis was performed on annually registered data of 2951 children, participating in the PIAMA birth cohort study. Results:, Children with a cat or dog at home at 3 months of age had a significantly lower prevalence of sensitization to inhalant allergens at age 8, but not of asthma. A cat decreased the risk of house dust mite sensitization at age 8 [odds ratio (OR) = 0.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49,0.95], a dog of pollen sensitization (OR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.29,0.83). A cat or dog at home did not significantly affect asthma incidence in each subsequent year. From 2 years of age onwards, the incidence of wheeze (OR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.12,2.05) and a dry cough at night (OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.05,1.57) was higher in children with a dog, whereas removal of a dog increased the risk of developing asthma symptoms. Comparing analyses using prospectively and retrospectively collected data on diagnosed asthma showed important recall bias. Conclusions:, Our prospective study shows a protective effect of early presence of pets at home on sensitization to inhalant allergens, but no prevention of asthma development. Furthermore, children with pets had more frequent transient or intermittent asthma symptoms. Parental report of asthma by recall may provide spurious results of these associations. [source] Cumulative adversity and drug dependence in young adults: racial/ethnic contrastsADDICTION, Issue 3 2003R. Jay Turner ABSTRACT Aims To study cumulative exposure to stressors as a risk factor for drug dependence, and evaluate whether group differences in exposure contribute to differences in prevalence. Design Cross-sectional community survey of life-time adverse experiences and substance and psychiatric disorders. Setting Data collected between 1997 and 2000 in Miami,Dade County, USA. Participants A total of 1803 former Miami,Dade public school students, 93% between ages 19 and 21 years when interviewed. Males and females of Cuban origin, other Caribbean basin Hispanics, African-Americans and non-Hispanic whites are represented equally. Measurements Drug dependence disorder assessed by DSM-IV criteria using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, and a 41-item checklist of life-time exposure to major and potentially traumatic experiences. Both measures include age at time of first occurrence. Findings Life-time rate of drug dependence disorder (total 14.3%) did not vary significantly (P > 0.05) by socio-economic group. Male rate (17.6%) was significantly greater than female rate (10.9%). The African-American rate (6.5%) was dramatically lower than non-Hispanic white (17.0%), Cuban (18.1%) and non-Cuban Hispanic (16.0%) rates despite their dramatically higher exposure to adversity. Twenty-eight of 33 individual adversities were associated with the subsequent onset of drug dependence (P < 0.05). Cumulative life-time exposure was greatest for males and for African-Americans, and was associated inversely with socio-economic level. Multivariate discrete-time event history analysis revealed significant independent effects of distal (>1 year earlier) and proximal (previous year) exposure to adverse events (P < 0.05), controlling for childhood conduct disorder, attention deficit hyperactive disorder and previous psychiatric disorder. Conclusions Life-time cumulative exposure to distant as well as more recent adversity predicts risk of subsequent drug dependence, although it does not explain ethnic group differences in risk. [source] Shaky attachments: Individual-level stability and change of partisanship among West German voters, 1984,2001EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006RÜDIGER SCHMITT-BECK In this article, the authors take advantage of a unique longitudinal database , the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) , to test the basic premise of partisanship's high persistence. Analysing individual-level data from 18 annual panel waves conducted in West Germany between 1984 and 2001, it was found that only a minority of the electorate appears steadfast with regard to partisanship over the entire period. Using event history analysis, the authors demonstrate how movements from partisanship into independence and changes between parties are affected by: personal attributes of voters, especially cognitive mobilisation; by properties of their social contexts, in particular spousal relationships and family constellations; by situational contexts, specifically election campaigns; and by the type of party with which voters identify. [source] Transnational Networks and Policy Diffusion: The Case of Gender MainstreamingINTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 1 2001Jacqui True How can we account for the global diffusion of remarkably similar policy innovations across widely differing nation-states? In an era characterized by heightened globalization and increasingly radical state restructuring, this question has become especially acute. Scholars of international relations offer a number of theoretical explanations for the cross-national convergence of ideas, institutions, and interests. We examine the proliferation of state bureaucracies for gender mainstreaming. These organizations seek to integrate a gender-equality perspective across all areas of government policy. Although they so far have received scant attention outside of feminist policy circles, these mainstreaming bureaucracies,now in place in over 100 countries,represent a powerful challenge to business-as-usual politics and policymaking. As a policy innovation, the speed with which these institutional mechanisms have been adopted by the majority of national governments is unprecedented. We argue that transnational networks composed largely of nonstate actors (notably women's international nongovernmental organizations and the United Nations) have been the primary forces driving the diffusion of gender mainstreaming. In an event history analysis of 157 nation-states from 1975 to 1998, we assess how various national and transnational factors have affected the timing and the type of the institutional changes these states have made. Our findings support the claim that the diffusion of gender-mainstreaming mechanisms has been facilitated by the role played by transnational networks, in particular by the transnational feminist movement. Further, they suggest a major shift in the nature and the locus of global politics and national policymaking. [source] Perceptions about services and dropout from a substance abuse case management programJOURNAL OF COMMUNITY PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 5 2007Michael R. Sosin This article uses event history analysis to examine certain determinants of dropout from a case management program that serves homeless adults with substance abuse problems. The examined determinants are perceptions of conventional treatment services: (a) client perceptions concerning the value of the conventional services that case managers help them to obtain, (b) the views of use services held by social contacts, and (c) client perceptions of the legitimacy of conventional services. The findings, some of which involve statistical interactions, suggest that clients drop out of case management services more slowly (a) when they favor pursuit of particularly efficacious conventional programs; (b) when they find conventional programs to be of low legitimacy; (c) when, under special conditions, they perceive that conventional services are less caring; or (d) when social contracts do not pressure them. These findings generally imply that clients look to case management services when they are more skeptical about conventional services. The variables predicting dropout from case management poorly predict continuation in conventional substance abuse services, indicating that dropout is linked to perceptions of services in context-specific ways. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comm Psychol 35: 583,602, 2007. [source] Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for shifted curvesJOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES B (STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY), Issue 2 2001Birgitte B. Rønn The analysis of a sample of curves can be done by self-modelling regression methods. Within this framework we follow the ideas of nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation known from event history analysis and the counting process set-up. We derive an infinite dimensional score equation and from there we suggest an algorithm to estimate the shape function for a simple shape invariant model. The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator that we find turns out to be a Nadaraya,Watson-like estimator, but unlike in the usual kernel smoothing situation we do not need to select a bandwidth or even a kernel function, since the score equation automatically selects the shape and the smoothing parameter for the estimation. We apply the method to a sample of electrophoretic spectra to illustrate how it works. [source] Kolmogorov,Smirnov-type testing for the partial homogeneity of Markov processes,with application to credit riskAPPLIED STOCHASTIC MODELS IN BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY, Issue 3 2007Rafael Weißbach Abstract In banking, the default behaviour of the counterpart is not only of interest for the pricing of transactions under credit risk but also for the assessment of a portfolio credit risk. We develop a test against the hypothesis that default intensities are chronologically constant within a group of similar counterparts, e.g. a rating class. The Kolmogorov,Smirnov-type test builds up on the asymptotic normality of counting processes in event history analysis. The right censoring accommodates for Markov processes with more than one no-absorbing state. A simulation study and two examples of rating systems demonstrate that partial homogeneity can be assumed, however occasionally, certain migrations must be modelled and estimated inhomogeneously. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||||||||