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Estimating Risk (estimating + risk)
Selected AbstractsAmbulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring: How Important Is It in Estimating Risk or Guiding Therapy?JOURNAL OF CLINICAL HYPERTENSION, Issue 1 2001Marvin Moser MD Editor in Chief No abstract is available for this article. [source] A - scab (Apple-scab), a simulation model for estimating risk of Venturia inaequalis primary infections,EPPO BULLETIN, Issue 2 2007V. Rossi A-scab (Apple-scab) is a dynamic simulation model for Venturia inaequalis primary infections on apple. It simulates development of pseudothecia, ascospore maturation, discharge, deposition and infection during the season based on hourly data of air temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and leaf wetness. A-scab produces a risk index for each infection period and forecasts the probable periods of symptoms appearance. The model was validated under different epidemiological conditions: its outputs were successfully compared with daily spore counts and actual onset and severity of the disease under orchard conditions, and neither corrections nor calibrations have been necessary to adapt the model to different apple-growing areas. Compared to other existing models, A-scab: (i) combines information from literature and data acquired from specific experiments; (ii) is completely ,open' because both model structure and algorithms have been published and are easily accessible; (iii) is not written with a specific computer language but it works on simple-to-use electronic sheets. For these reasons the model can be easily implemented in the computerized systems used by warning services. [source] Influence of epidemiological factors on blood transfusionISBT SCIENCE SERIES: THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTRACELLULAR TRANSPORT, Issue 1 2007S. Laperche The prevalence, incidence and risk factors of infectious diseases observed in the general population have been described to directly influence transfusion medicine, especially the blood selection. The objective is to ensure the blood safety. The characterization of modes of transmission influences the donor selection: the risk factors of the main blood-borne infections have permitted to adapt the pre-donation questionnaire in order to exclude at-risk donors. The prevalence of infections also has an impact on the blood screening strategy. For example, anti-HBc antibody (Ab) screening is currently performed only in countries where the HBV prevalence is compatible with a reasonable number of donor exclusions. HTLV Ab screening is implemented in countries in which the rate of donors originating from endemic areas could represent a risk for blood components. Measurement of incidence which contributes to the residual risk has led to the introduction of nucleic acid testing (NAT) for HIV, HCV and in some cases for HBV in viral screening strategy in many countries worldwide. The observed NAT yield differs according to the incidence of the infection and according to the country. Finally, the putative blood transmission of new and emerging pathogens has led to implement specific and non-specific measures in order to enhance blood safety. Conversely, although the blood donor population is selected, the data observed in this population have also contributed to better understand epidemiology and pathogenesis of infection. Moreover, owing to the recent progress in developing modelling approaches for estimating risk, we are able to anticipate a transfusion transmission threat by introducing, when necessary, specific measures intended for reduce this risk. [source] Update on the Management of Hypertension: Recent Clinical Trials and the JNC 7JOURNAL OF CLINICAL HYPERTENSION, Issue 2004Marvin Moser MD Editor in Chief The following issues are highlighted: Emphasis is placed on the importance of systolic blood pressure elevations in estimating risk and in determining prognosis. A review of placebo-controlled clinical trials indicates that cardiovascular events are statistically significantly reduced with diuretic- or , blocker-based treatment regimens. The question of whether blood pressure lowering alone or specific medications make the difference in outcome is discussed. Based on the results of numerous trials, it is apparent that blood pressure lowering itself is probably of greater importance in reducing cardiovascular events than the specific medication used. Meta-analyses suggest, however, that the use of an agent that blocks the renin-angiotensin aldosterone system is probably more effective in diabetics and in patients with nephropathy than a regimen based on calcium channel blocker therapy. The Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) reported no overall difference in coronary heart disease outcome among patients treated with a diuretic-based compared to a calcium channel blocker- or an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor-based treatment program. However, patients in the diuretic group experienced fewer episodes of heart failure than in the calcium channel blocker group and fewer episodes of heart failure and strokes than those in the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor group. Results were similar in diabetics and nondiabetics. Possible reasons for this outcome are discussed. The Australian National Blood Pressure 2 study, which was unblinded, reported a marginally significantly better outcome only in male patients receiving an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor-based regimen compared to those receiving a diuretic-based program. Finally, the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC 7) is reviewed. Highlights of this report include the new designation of prehypertension, i.e., blood pressures of 120,139 mm Hg/80,89 mm Hg. The JNC 7 suggested that diuretics should be the first-step drug of choice in most patients, but listed numerous specific reasons why other agents should be used in special situations. The report stressed that the majority of patients will require two or more medications to achieve goal blood pressure. [source] Pesticide soil sorption parameters: theory, measurement, uses, limitations and reliability,PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (FORMERLY: PESTICIDE SCIENCE), Issue 5 2002R Don Wauchope Abstract The soil sorption coefficient Kd and the soil organic carbon sorption coefficient KOC of pesticides are basic parameters used by environmental scientists and regulatory agencies worldwide in describing the environmental fate and behavior of pesticides. They are a measure of the strength of sorption of pesticides to soils and other geosorbent surfaces at the water/solid interface, and are thus directly related to both environmental mobility and persistence. KOC is regarded as a ,universal' parameter related to the hydrophobicity of the pesticide molecule, which applies to a given pesticide in all soils. This assumption is known to be inexact, but it is used in this way in modeling and estimating risk for pesticide leaching and runoff. In this report we examine the theory, uses, measurement or estimation, limitations and reliability of these parameters and provide some ,rules of thumb' for the use of these parameters in describing the behavior and fate of pesticides in the environment, especially in analysis by modeling. © 2002 Society of Chemical Industry [source] The Impact of Incomplete Linkage Disequilibrium and Genetic Model Choice on the Analysis and Interpretation of Genome-wide Association StudiesANNALS OF HUMAN GENETICS, Issue 4 2010Mark M. Iles Summary When conducting a genetic association study, it has previously been observed that a multiplicative risk model tends to fit better at a disease-associated marker locus than at the ungenotyped causative locus. This suggests that, while overall risk decreases as linkage disequilibrium breaks down, non-multiplicative components are more affected. This effect is investigated here, in particular the practical consequences it has on testing for trait/marker associations and the estimation of mode of inheritance and risk once an associated locus has been found. The extreme significance levels required for genome-wide association studies define a restricted range of detectable allele frequencies and effect sizes. For such parameters there is little to be gained by using a test that models the correct mode of inheritance rather than the multiplicative; thus the Cochran-Armitage trend test, which assumes a multiplicative model, is preferable to a more general model as it uses fewer degrees of freedom. Equally when estimating risk, it is likely that a multiplicative risk model will provide a good fit to the data, regardless of the underlying mode of inheritance at the true susceptibility locus. This may lead to problems in interpreting risk estimates. [source] Do nomograms predict aggressive recurrence after radical prostatectomy more accurately than biochemical recurrence alone?BJU INTERNATIONAL, Issue 5 2009Florian R. Schroeck OBJECTIVE To compare the predictive accuracy (PA) of existing models in estimating risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) vs aggressive recurrence (BCR with a prostate-specific antigen, PSA, doubling time, DT, of <9 months). PATIENTS AND METHODS The study included 1550 men treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) between 1988 and 2007 within the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital database. The PA of nine different risk stratification models for estimating risk of BCR and risk of aggressive recurrence after RP was assessed using the concordance index, c. RESULTS The 10-year risks of BCR and aggressive recurrence were 47% and 9%, respectively. Across all nine models tested, the PA was a mean (range) of 0.054 (0.024,0.074) points higher for predicting aggressive recurrence than for predicting BCR alone (c = 0.756 vs 0.702). Similar results were obtained in four sensitivity analyses: (i) defining patients with BCR but unavailable PSADT (220) as having aggressive recurrence; (ii) defining these patients as not having aggressive recurrence; (iii) defining aggressive recurrence as a PSADT of <6 months; or (iv) defining aggressive recurrence as a PSADT of <12 months. The improvement in PA was greater for preoperative than for postoperative models (0.053 vs 0.036, P = 0.03). CONCLUSION Across nine different models the prediction of aggressive recurrence after RP was more accurate than the prediction of BCR alone. This is probably because current models mainly assess cancer biology, which correlates better with aggressive recurrence than with BCR alone. Overall, all models had relatively similar accuracy for predicting aggressive recurrence. [source] Decision Debacles and How to Avoid ThemBUSINESS STRATEGY REVIEW, Issue 2 2001Paul C. Nutt Decision debacles , decisions that go so wrong they are reported in the media , involve three mistakes: faulty decision practices, premature commitments, and misallocation of resources. These mistakes, together with the more detailed traps into which they draw decision-makers, are found in many decisions that go wrong without attracting media coverage. To avoid decision debacles, governments and organizations should apply the lessons derived from research into decision-making. These lessons include the need to spend time early in the process to uncover hidden or ethical concerns, care in managing the social and political forces that might block the decision, focussing on clear objectives, exploring a wide range of options and estimating risk. It is also important to root out perverse incentive structures to gain information needed for learning. [source] | |||||||||||||