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Estimated Risk (estimated + risk)
Selected AbstractsPrediction of cardiovascular risk in people with diabetesDIABETIC MEDICINE, Issue 7 2003P. H. Winocour Abstract People with diabetes are at high risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, especially if they have already developed vascular problems. For patients who are apparently free of vascular complications, risk tables are often used to assess the risk of cardiovascular events in the following years, and to decide on treatment with statins or anti-platelet therapy. These risk prediction tables include estimates of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and are based on populations, some of which only contained a very small number of people with diabetes. Multiple problems can be identified with these tables, and many seriously underestimate cardiovascular risk in people with diabetes. Possible ways of addressing this include using risk estimation tools based solely on diabetic populations, adding in additional traditional variables such as triglycerides or left ventricular hypertrophy, including novel cardiovascular risk factors, or intervening at a lower level of estimated risk in people with diabetes compared with non-diabetic subjects. Alternatively, estimates of individual risk could be abandoned and all people with diabetes could be treated with statins and other effective agents. Diabet. Med. 20, 515,527 (2003) [source] When does parameter drift decrease the uncertainty in extinction risk estimates?ECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 12 2003Stephen P. Ellner Abstract Halley (2003) proposed that parameter drift decreases the uncertainty in long-range extinction risk estimates, because drift mitigates the extreme sensitivity of estimated risk to estimated mean growth rate. However, parameter drift has a second, opposing effect: it increases the uncertainty in parameter estimates from a given data set. When both effects are taken into account, parameter drift can increase, sometimes substantially, the uncertainty in risk estimates. The net effect depends sensitively on the type of drift and on which model parameters must be estimated from observational data on the population at risk. In general, unless many parameters are estimated from independent data, parameter drift increases the uncertainty in extinction risk. These findings suggest that more mechanistic PVA models, using long-term data on key environmental variables and experiments to quantify their demographic impacts, offer the best prospects for escaping the high data requirements when extinction risk is estimated from observational data. [source] Testicular carcinoma in situ in subfertile Danish menINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ANDROLOGY, Issue 4 2007Inge A. Olesen Summary Carcinoma in situ (CIS) testis is the precursor stage for the majority of testicular germ cell tumours (TGCT). Infertility is one of the conditions known to predispose to TGCT, but based on scarce existing data, the prevalence of CIS in this risk group was estimated at only approximately 1%. To establish more objective data, we investigated retrospectively the prevalence of CIS based on testicular biopsies performed in a well-defined group of subfertile males. We included 453 patients who had testicular biopsies performed for infertility reasons during 1995,2005 at the Copenhagen University Hospital (Rigshospitalet). Biopsies were evaluated by two experienced observers independently. CIS was detected in 10 individuals, of whom three had bilateral CIS, corresponding to a prevalence of 2.2% (95% CI 1.1,4.0%). This is greater than the estimated risk of 0.45% for the age- and birth cohort-matched general Danish population. All patients with CIS testis had severe oligozoospermia (,2.06 million/mL). We confirmed that a thorough examination of men suffering from subfertility/infertility can identify those with an increased risk for testicular neoplasia and recommend performing bilateral biopsies, especially in the subpopulation of men with atrophic testicles, severe oligozoospermia and/or irregular ultrasonic pattern of their testicles. [source] Criminal attitudes to violence: Development and preliminary validation of a scale for male prisonersAGGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR, Issue 6 2004Devon L.L. Polaschek Abstract Two studies report on the development and preliminary psychometric properties of a new scale measuring criminal attitudes to violence. In Study 1, the responses of a mixed sample of male prisoners were used to select 20 scale items from a larger pool. The final scale (the Criminal Attitudes to Violence Scale; CAVS) was designed so that it had a single-factor structure and was uncorrelated with a measure of social desirability bias. It demonstrated high internal reliability, and a strong relationship to a self-report measure of physical aggression. Significant differences were found in CAVS mean scores for various offence history comparisons, such as whether or not the offender was currently on sentence for a violent conviction. In the second study, most results from the first study were replicated with an independent sample of male prisoners. Further, compared to another scale measuring attitudes to aggression [the EXPAGG Instrumental subscale; Archer and Haigh, 1997b], the CAVS was a better predictor of general attitudes to crime. Mean CAVS scores were again significantly higher for current violent offenders than those on sentence for other types of offences. Lastly, the CAVS was moderately predictive of estimated risk of reconviction and re-imprisonment. Overall these results suggest that this scale measures the construct of attitudes to criminal violence, which partially overlaps two other constructs: attitudes to aggression and attitudes to crime. Aggr. Behav. 30:484,503, 2004. © 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Adult living donor liver transplantation: Preferences about donation outside the medical communityLIVER TRANSPLANTATION, Issue 4 2001Scott J. Cotler MD An increasing number of transplant centers are performing adult living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). We evaluated peoples' perspectives on possible outcomes of living donation, thresholds for donating, and views regarding the donation process. One hundred fifty people were surveyed; half were from a medical care group serving an indigent population and half were from a private clinic. Preferences about outcomes of adult living donation were ranked and quantified on a visual analogue scale. Thresholds for donation to a loved one were quantified. Sixty percent of the respondents suggested they would prefer to donate and die and have the transplant recipient live rather than forgo donation and have the potential transplant recipient die of liver failure. Participants' stated threshold for living donation was a median survival for themselves of only 79%. They would require that their loved one have a median survival of 55% with transplantation before they would agree to donate. Respondents from the medical care group reported higher survival thresholds for themselves and the transplant recipient, and race was the most statistically significant predictor of those thresholds. Sex was more predictive of threshold probabilities from the private clinic. Eighty-one percent of the respondents believed that the potential donor, not a physician, should have the final say regarding candidacy for living donation. In conclusion, the findings of this survey support the use of adult LDLT. Most respondents were willing to accept mortality rates that far exceed the estimated risk of donation and favored outcomes in which a loved one was saved. [source] Risk of developing schizophrenia among Japanese high-risk offspring of affected parent: outcome of a twenty-four-year follow upPSYCHIATRY AND CLINICAL NEUROSCIENCES, Issue 1 2009Atsushi Nishida phd Aims:, Prospective follow-up studies of high-risk children may help clarify the etiological factors in schizophrenia. While studies from North America, Europe and Israel have estimated the risk of schizophrenia at 7,16% in the offspring of an affected parent, no data have been reported for Asian populations. Method:, We started a follow up of the offspring of Japanese schizophrenia patients in 1978. We investigated the estimated risk of schizophrenia in 51 high-risk offspring at the 24-year follow up. The effects of the parents' status, including history of psychiatric hospitalization and social functioning, on the risk in the offspring were also investigated. Results:, The cumulative incidence of schizophrenia was 13.7 % and the lifetime prevalence was estimated to be 13.5 ± 4.8%. The association between the psychiatric hospitalization in the probands and the risk of schizophrenia in the offspring was not significant, and the Global Assessment of Functioning score was significantly lower in the probands with a history of psychiatric hospitalization than in those without such a history. Conclusions:, The risk of developing schizophrenia in Japanese high-risk offspring might be comparable with the Western results. The present study suggests that the severity of the disease or the level of social functioning may not significantly affect the risk in Japanese offspring. [source] Evaluating provider prescribing practices for the treatment of tuberculosis in Virginia, 1995 to 1998: An assessment of educational needTHE JOURNAL OF CONTINUING EDUCATION IN THE HEALTH PROFESSIONS, Issue 3 2000Nicole L. Richardson BA Abstract Background: Although the use of epidemiologic studies to demonstrate learning needs appears to be infrequent, this study addressed the discrepancies in the prescribing practices for the initial treatment of tuberculosis in Virginia between public and private clinicians, comparing them with the treatment regimens recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American Thoracic Society (CDC-ATS). Methods: Data examined were the 1995 to 1998 reported cases of tuberculosis within the Commonwealth of Virginia. The study population consisted of 770 laboratory-confirmed tuberculosis cases, living in Virginia, whose isolates were tested for isoniazid susceptibility and were prescribed an initial drug regimen. Prevalence rates, prevalence odds ratios, and logistic regression were used to determine the estimated risk for receipt of the CDC-ATS treatment regimen. Results: Of the 770 cases, 28.7% did not receive the CDC-ATS recommended drug regimen. Prevalence rates and odds for not receiving the recommended regimen were highest among persons of United States origin, Caucasians, females, persons under age 15, and persons from the southwest region of Virginia. Logistic regression indicated a slight increase in the estimated risk of not receiving the CDC-ATS regimen from a private physician (OR: 1.40; CI: 0.97, 2.04) when compared to a public physician. Findings: Private tuberculosis care providers were less compliant with CDC-ATS guidelines than public tuberculosis care providers. Because providers did not follow the recommended treatment guidelines universally, it is advised that all tuberculosis care providers in Virginia would benefit from increased education regarding adequate treatment regimens for tuberculosis and the prevention of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. [source] | ||||||||||