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Equity Risk Premium (equity + risk_premium)
Selected AbstractsGLOBAL EVIDENCE ON THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUMJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 4 2003Elroy Dimson The size of the equity risk premium,the incremental return that shareholders require to hold risky equities rather than risk-free securities,is a key issue in corporate finance. Financial economists generally measure the equity premium over long periods of time in order to obtain reliable estimates. These estimates are widely used by investors, finance professionals, corporate executives, regulators, lawyers, and consultants. But because the 20th century proved to be a period of such remarkable growth in the U.S. economy, estimates of the risk premium that rely on past market performance may be too high to serve as a reliable guide to the future. The authors analyze a 103-year history of risk premiums in 16 countries and conclude that the U.S. risk premium relative to Treasury bills was 5.3% for that period,lower than previous studies suggest,as compared to 4.2% for the U.K. and 4.5% for a world index. But the article goes on to observe that the historical record may still overstate expectations of the future risk premium, partly because market volatility in the future may be lower than in the past, and partly because of a general decline in risk resulting from new technological advances and increased diversification opportunities for investors. After adjusting for the expected impact of these factors, the authors calculate forward-looking equity risk premiums of 4.3% for the U.S., 3.9% for the U.K., and 3.5% for the world index. At the same time, however, they caution that the risk premium can fluctuate over time and that managers should make appropriate adjustments when there are compelling economic reasons to think that expected premiums are unusually high or low. [source] A THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM,JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 2 2008Roelof SalomonsArticle first published online: 10 MAR 200 Abstract In historical perspective, equity returns have been higher than interest rates but have also varied a good deal more. However, the average excess return has been larger than what could be expected based on classical equilibrium theory: the equity risk premium (ERP) puzzle. This paper has two objectives. First, the paper presents a comprehensive overview of the vast literature developed aimed at adjusting theory and testing the robustness of the puzzle. Here we will show that the failure of theory to link asset prices to economics is mostly quantitative by nature and not qualitative (anymore). Second, beyond providing a survey of theory, we aim for a relevant practical angle as well. Our main contribution is that we spend time on why returns have been higher than investors reasonably could have expected. We present evidence that forecasts of equity returns can be enhanced by valuation models: low valuation levels (low price-to-earnings ratios) portend high subsequent returns. While conventional wisdom (several years ago) was to use historical returns to forecast future returns, a growing consensus now recognizes that the predictive power of valuation ratios is preferred. Finally we provide some practical implications based on this predictability. While the ERP is essentially a long-term issue, the likelihood of a lower risk premium increases risk for many and means that short-term volatility might not be neglected. [source] EXPLAINING THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM,THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 6 2006LAURIAN LUNGU We develop a simple overlapping generations model in which the young have a choice in investing in equities or index-linked bonds. Projections of share price uncertainty over a 30-year period show that the risk associated with such long-term investments predicts an equity premium that matches historical values. Moreover, we calibrate the model and show that it can predict up to the fourth moment of both the observed risk premium and the real rate of interest. [source] Earnings Quality and the Equity Risk Premium: A Benchmark Model,CONTEMPORARY ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 3 2006Kenton K. Yee Abstract This paper solves a model that links earnings quality to the equity risk premium in an infinite-horizon consumption capital asset pricing model (CAPM) economy. In the model, risk-averse traders hold diversified portfolios consisting of risk-free bonds and shares of many risky firms. When constructing their portfolios, traders rely on noisy reported earnings and dividend payments for information about the risky firms. The main new element of the model is an explicit representation of earnings quality that includes hidden accrual errors that reverse in subsequent periods. The model demonstrates that earnings quality magnifies fundamental risk. Absent fundamental risk, poor earnings quality cannot affect the equity risk premium. Moreover, only the systematic (undiversified) component of earnings-quality risk contributes to the equity risk premium. In contrast, all components of earnings-quality risk affect earnings capitalization factors. The model ties together consumption CAPM and accounting-based valuation research into one price formula linking earnings quality to the equity risk premium and earnings capitalization factors. [source] Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Accounting FundamentalsJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 9-10 2000John O'Hanlon This study uses recent developments in the theoretical modelling of the links between unrecorded accounting goodwill, accounting profitability and the cost of equity, together with Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) betas, to estimate the ex-ante equity risk premium in the UK. The results suggest that, over our sample period from 1968 to 1995, the premium has been in the region of 5%. Our estimate lends support to the view that the ex-ante equity risk premium is substantially less than the historical average of the excess of equity returns over the risk-free rate, and is similar to the rates applied recently by UK competition regulators. [source] Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation and Implications , A Post-Crisis UpdateFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 5 2009Aswath Damodaran First page of article [source] Earnings Quality and the Equity Risk Premium: A Benchmark Model,CONTEMPORARY ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 3 2006Kenton K. Yee Abstract This paper solves a model that links earnings quality to the equity risk premium in an infinite-horizon consumption capital asset pricing model (CAPM) economy. In the model, risk-averse traders hold diversified portfolios consisting of risk-free bonds and shares of many risky firms. When constructing their portfolios, traders rely on noisy reported earnings and dividend payments for information about the risky firms. The main new element of the model is an explicit representation of earnings quality that includes hidden accrual errors that reverse in subsequent periods. The model demonstrates that earnings quality magnifies fundamental risk. Absent fundamental risk, poor earnings quality cannot affect the equity risk premium. Moreover, only the systematic (undiversified) component of earnings-quality risk contributes to the equity risk premium. In contrast, all components of earnings-quality risk affect earnings capitalization factors. The model ties together consumption CAPM and accounting-based valuation research into one price formula linking earnings quality to the equity risk premium and earnings capitalization factors. [source] The equity premium and the business cycle: the role of demand and supply shocksINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2010Peter N. Smith Abstract This paper explores the effects of the US business cycle on US stock market returns through an analysis of the equity risk premium. We propose a new methodology based on the SDF approach to asset pricing that allows us to uncover the different effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks. We find that negative shocks are more important that positive shocks, and that supply shocks have a much greater impact than demand shocks. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Taxes, Leverage, and the Cost of Equity CapitalJOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006DAN DHALIWAL ABSTRACT We examine the associations among leverage, corporate and investor level taxes, and the firm's implied cost of equity capital. Expanding on Modigliani and Miller [1958, 1963], the cost of equity capital can be expressed as a function of leverage and corporate and investor level taxes. Based on this expression, we predict that the cost of equity is increasing in leverage, and that corporate taxes mitigate this leverage-related risk premium, while the personal tax disadvantage of debt increases this premium. We empirically test these predictions using implied cost of equity estimates and proxies for the firm's corporate tax rate and the personal tax disadvantage of debt. Our results suggest that the equity risk premium associated with leverage is decreasing in the corporate tax benefit from debt. We find some evidence that the equity risk premium from leverage is increasing in the personal tax penalty associated with debt. [source] GLOBAL EVIDENCE ON THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUMJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 4 2003Elroy Dimson The size of the equity risk premium,the incremental return that shareholders require to hold risky equities rather than risk-free securities,is a key issue in corporate finance. Financial economists generally measure the equity premium over long periods of time in order to obtain reliable estimates. These estimates are widely used by investors, finance professionals, corporate executives, regulators, lawyers, and consultants. But because the 20th century proved to be a period of such remarkable growth in the U.S. economy, estimates of the risk premium that rely on past market performance may be too high to serve as a reliable guide to the future. The authors analyze a 103-year history of risk premiums in 16 countries and conclude that the U.S. risk premium relative to Treasury bills was 5.3% for that period,lower than previous studies suggest,as compared to 4.2% for the U.K. and 4.5% for a world index. But the article goes on to observe that the historical record may still overstate expectations of the future risk premium, partly because market volatility in the future may be lower than in the past, and partly because of a general decline in risk resulting from new technological advances and increased diversification opportunities for investors. After adjusting for the expected impact of these factors, the authors calculate forward-looking equity risk premiums of 4.3% for the U.S., 3.9% for the U.K., and 3.5% for the world index. At the same time, however, they caution that the risk premium can fluctuate over time and that managers should make appropriate adjustments when there are compelling economic reasons to think that expected premiums are unusually high or low. [source] Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Accounting FundamentalsJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 9-10 2000John O'Hanlon This study uses recent developments in the theoretical modelling of the links between unrecorded accounting goodwill, accounting profitability and the cost of equity, together with Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) betas, to estimate the ex-ante equity risk premium in the UK. The results suggest that, over our sample period from 1968 to 1995, the premium has been in the region of 5%. Our estimate lends support to the view that the ex-ante equity risk premium is substantially less than the historical average of the excess of equity returns over the risk-free rate, and is similar to the rates applied recently by UK competition regulators. [source] A THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM,JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 2 2008Roelof SalomonsArticle first published online: 10 MAR 200 Abstract In historical perspective, equity returns have been higher than interest rates but have also varied a good deal more. However, the average excess return has been larger than what could be expected based on classical equilibrium theory: the equity risk premium (ERP) puzzle. This paper has two objectives. First, the paper presents a comprehensive overview of the vast literature developed aimed at adjusting theory and testing the robustness of the puzzle. Here we will show that the failure of theory to link asset prices to economics is mostly quantitative by nature and not qualitative (anymore). Second, beyond providing a survey of theory, we aim for a relevant practical angle as well. Our main contribution is that we spend time on why returns have been higher than investors reasonably could have expected. We present evidence that forecasts of equity returns can be enhanced by valuation models: low valuation levels (low price-to-earnings ratios) portend high subsequent returns. While conventional wisdom (several years ago) was to use historical returns to forecast future returns, a growing consensus now recognizes that the predictive power of valuation ratios is preferred. Finally we provide some practical implications based on this predictability. While the ERP is essentially a long-term issue, the likelihood of a lower risk premium increases risk for many and means that short-term volatility might not be neglected. [source] Risk and Return in the 20th and 21st CenturiesBUSINESS STRATEGY REVIEW, Issue 2 2000Elroy Dimson The single most important contemporary issue in finance is the equity risk premium. This drives future equity returns, and is the key determinant of the cost of capital. The risk premium , the expected reward for bearing the risk of investing in equities, rather than in low-risk investments such as bills or bonds , is usually estimated from historical data. This article starts by summarising new evidence on historical returns in twelve major world markets from the authors' recent book, ,The Millennium Book: A Century of Investment Returns'. The authors show that the historical equity risk premium has been lower than previously believed, and argue that the future risk premium is likely to be lower still. They discuss what this implies for the cost of capital, stock market values, and companies' target rates of return. They suggest that many companies are seeking too high a rate of return and thus run the risk of under-investing. [source] GLOBAL EVIDENCE ON THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUMJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 4 2003Elroy Dimson The size of the equity risk premium,the incremental return that shareholders require to hold risky equities rather than risk-free securities,is a key issue in corporate finance. Financial economists generally measure the equity premium over long periods of time in order to obtain reliable estimates. These estimates are widely used by investors, finance professionals, corporate executives, regulators, lawyers, and consultants. But because the 20th century proved to be a period of such remarkable growth in the U.S. economy, estimates of the risk premium that rely on past market performance may be too high to serve as a reliable guide to the future. The authors analyze a 103-year history of risk premiums in 16 countries and conclude that the U.S. risk premium relative to Treasury bills was 5.3% for that period,lower than previous studies suggest,as compared to 4.2% for the U.K. and 4.5% for a world index. But the article goes on to observe that the historical record may still overstate expectations of the future risk premium, partly because market volatility in the future may be lower than in the past, and partly because of a general decline in risk resulting from new technological advances and increased diversification opportunities for investors. After adjusting for the expected impact of these factors, the authors calculate forward-looking equity risk premiums of 4.3% for the U.S., 3.9% for the U.K., and 3.5% for the world index. At the same time, however, they caution that the risk premium can fluctuate over time and that managers should make appropriate adjustments when there are compelling economic reasons to think that expected premiums are unusually high or low. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||