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Ensemble Simulations (ensemble + simulation)
Selected AbstractsEnsemble simulations of the cold European winter of 2005-2006THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 636 2008A. A. Scaife Abstract There is only limited understanding of the processes driving year-to-year variability in European winter climate and the skill of seasonal forecasts for Europe in winter is generally low. The winter of 2005-2006 is a useful case-study because it was the coldest winter in large parts of western Europe for over a decade, and the coldest in central England since 1995-1996. Here, we present results of experiments with a range of general circulation models to investigate the importance of both the Atlantic Ocean and stratospheric circulation in producing the unusually cold winter of 2005-2006. We use models with different combinations of horizontal and stratospheric vertical resolution, allowing the sensitivity of the response to model formulation to be tested. The response to Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies is improved in a more recent model with higher horizontal resolution. The results show that both Atlantic SSTs and the January 2006 sudden stratospheric warming are likely to have contributed to the cold 2005-2006 European winter. © Crown Copyright 2008. Reproduced with the permission of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. [source] Global perspective on hydrology, water balance, and water resources management in arid basinsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 2 2010Yanjun Shen Abstract Arid and semiarid regions comprise a large part of the world's terrestrial area and are home to hundreds of millions of people. Water resources in arid regions are rare and critical to society and to ecosystems. The hydrologic cycle in arid and semiarid regions has been greatly altered due to long-term human exploitation. Under conditions of global warming, water resources in these regions are expected to be more unstable and ecosystems likely will suffer from severe water stress. In the current special issue contributed to understanding ecohydrologic processes and water-related problems in arid regions of western China, this paper provides a global perspective on the hydrology and water balance of six major arid basins of the world. A number of global datasets, including the state-of-the-art ensemble simulation of land surface models by GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project II, a project by GEWEX), were used to address the water balance terms in the world's major hydroclimatic regions. The common characteristics of hydrologic cycles and water balance in arid basins are as follows: strong evapotranspiration characterizes the hydrological cycle in arid basins; and in water use sectors irrigation consumes a large amount of water, resulting in degradation of native vegetation. From the ecohydrology viewpoint, a comprehensive study of hydrological and ecological processes of water utilization in arid basins is urgently needed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] High-speed network and Grid computing for high-end computation: application in geodynamics ensemble simulationsCONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION: PRACTICE & EXPERIENCE, Issue 5 2007S. Zhou Abstract High-speed network and Grid computing have been actively investigated, and their capabilities are being demonstrated. However, their application to high-end scientific computing and modeling is still to be explored. In this paper we discuss the related issues and present our prototype work on applying XCAT3 framework technology to geomagnetic data assimilation development with distributed computers, connected through an up to 10 Gigabit Ethernet network. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Representing elevation uncertainty in runoff modelling and flowpath mappingHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 12 2001Theodore A. Endreny Abstract Vertical inaccuracies in terrain data propagate through dispersal area subroutines to create uncertainties in runoff flowpath predictions. This study documented how terrain error sensitivities in the D8, Multiple Flow (MF), DEMON, D-Infinity and two hybrid dispersal area algorithms, responded to changes in terrain slope and error magnitude. Runoff dispersal areas were generated from convergent and divergent sections of low, medium, and high gradient 64-ha parcels using a 30 m pixel scale control digital elevation model (DEM) and an ensemble of alternative realizations of the control DEM. The ensemble of alternative DEM realizations was generated randomly to represent root mean square error (RMSE) values ranging from 0·5 to 6 m and spatial correlations of 0 to 0·999 across 180 m lag distances. Dispersal area residuals, derived by differencing output from control and ensemble simulations, were used to quantify the spatial consistency of algorithm dispersal area predictions. A maximum average algorithm consistency of 85% was obtained in steep sloping convergent terrain, and two map analysis techniques are recommended in maintaining high spatial consistencies under less optimum terrain conditions. A stochastic procedure was developed to translate DEM error into dispersal area probability maps, and thereby better represent uncertainties in runoff modelling and management. Two uses for these runoff probability maps include watershed management indices that identify the optimal areas for intercepting polluted runoff as well as Monte-Carlo-ready probability distributions that report the cumulative pollution impact of each pixel's downslope dispersal area. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Downscaled GCM projections of winter and summer mass balance for Peyto Glacier, Alberta, Canada (2000,2100) from ensemble simulations with ECHAM5-MPIOMINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2009Christoph Matulla Abstract We apply a direct downscaling approach to generate ensembles of local-scale glacier mass balance projections from coarse-scale general circulation model (GCM) data. The general modes of the atmospheric circulation over a large geographical region are linked statistically to Peyto Glacier's winter and summer balance separately. Our study focuses on the generation of ensemble projections derived from simulations with ECHAM5-MPIOM forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A1B and B1. The resulting ensembles of mass balance projections show a moderate increase in winter balance and a steep decrease in summer balance. Together these results suggest continued frontal recession and downwasting of Peyto Glacier and a shift of the equilibrium line altitude by at least 100 m above that estimated for the 1966,2001 period suggesting that very little of the glacier will remain by 2100. Copyright © 2008 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Simulation of Indian summer monsoon: sensitivity to cumulus parameterization in a GCMINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2007S. K. Deb Abstract Hindcasts for the Indian summer monsoons (ISMs) of 2002 and 2003 have been produced from a series of numerical simulations performed with a general circulation model using different cumulus parameterization schemes. Ten sets of ensemble simulations have been produced without using any vegetation scheme but by prescribing the monthly observed SST from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) analyses. For each ensemble, ten simulations have been realised with different initial conditions that are also prepared from the ECMWF data: five each from the April and May analyses of both the years. Stream function, velocity potential with divergent winds at 200 hPa, winds at 850 hPa and rainfall patterns with their anomalies have been analysed and interpreted. The large-scale upper and lower level circulation features are simulated satisfactorily. The spatial structure of predicted July monsoon rainfall over India shows a fair agreement with the GPCP (observed) pentad rainfall distribution. The variability associated with all-India June,July simulated rainfall time series matches reasonably well with the observations in 2003, but the model fails to simulate the observed variability in July 2002. Further evaluation of the model-produced precipitation in seasonal simulations is done with the help of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the GPCP rainfall over India. Since the first four EOFs explain a significant part of the total variance of the observed rainfall, the simulated precipitation is projected on to these modes. Thus, the differences in simulated and observed rainfall fields manifest in the time series of their expansion coefficients, which are utilised for inter-comparison/evaluation of model simulations. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] A simulated reduction in Antarctic sea-ice area since 1750: implications of the long memory of the oceanINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2005Hugues Goosse Abstract Using the three-dimensional coarse-resolution climate model ECBILT-CLIO, 1000-year long ensemble simulations with natural and anthropogenic forcings have been performed to study the long-term variation of the ice cover in the Southern Ocean. Over the last 250 years, the ice area has decreased by about 1 × 106 km2 in its annual mean. A comparison with experiments driven by only natural forcings suggests that this reduction is due to both natural and anthropogenic forcing, the latter playing a larger role than natural forcing over the last 150 years. Despite this contribution from anthropogenic forcing, the simulated ice area at the end of the 20th century is similar to that simulated during the 14th century because of the slow response of the Southern Ocean to radiative forcing. Sensitivity experiments performed with the model show that the model's initial conditions have a large influence on the simulated ice cover and that it is necessary to start simulations at least two centuries before the period of interest in order to remove this influence. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño propertiesTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 607 2005H. Annamalai Abstract Diagnostics from observed precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis products reveal that after the 1976,77 climate shift in the Pacific there was a dramatic change in the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to El Niño, particularly during the months of July and August. Based on 1950,75 (PRE76) and 1977,2001 (POST76) El Niño composites: the western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) was stronger than normal in both periods; the ISM was weaker than normal during the entire monsoon season in PRE76, but in POST76 was weaker only during the onset and withdrawal phases. In terms of observed sea surface temperature (SST) during July,August, the major differences between the two periods are the presence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo,Pacific warm pool and the intensity of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific in POST76. The effect of these differences on the ISM is investigated in a suite of experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) that has a realistic monsoon precipitation climatology. Separate ten-member ensemble simulations with the AGCM were conducted for PRE76 and POST76 El Niño events with SST anomalies inserted as follows: (i) tropical Indo,Pacific (TIP), (ii) tropical Pacific only (TPO), and (iii) tropical Indian Ocean only (TIO). Qualitatively, TPO solutions reproduce the observed differences in the monsoon response in both periods. Specifically, during July,August of POST76 the cold SST anomalies in conjunction with remote subsidence suppress precipitation (3,5 mm day,1) over the maritime continent and equatorial central Indian Ocean. Inclusion of Indian Ocean SST anomalies in the TIP runs further suppresses precipitation over the entire equatorial Indian Ocean. The low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies that develop as a Rossby-wave response to these convective anomalies increase the south-westerlies over the northern Indian Ocean, and favour a stronger ISM and WNPM. During PRE76 the non-occurrence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo,Pacific warm pool reinforces El Niño's suppression on the ISM. In contrast, TIO solutions show a reduced ISM during July,August of POST76; the solutions, however, show a significant effect on the WNPM during both PRE76 and POST76 periods. It is argued that SSTs over the entire tropical Indo,Pacific region need to be considered to understand the El Niño Southern Oscillation,monsoon linkage, and to make predictions of rainfall over India and the western North Pacific. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Investigating atmospheric predictability on Mars using breeding vectors in a general-circulation modelTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 603 2004C. E. Newman Abstract A breeding vectors approach is used to investigate the hypothesis that the Martian atmosphere is predictable at certain times of year, by identifying the fastest-growing modes of instability at different times in a Mars general-circulation model. Results indicate that the period from northern mid-spring until mid-autumn is remarkably predictable, with negative global growth rates for a range of conditions, in contrast to the situation on the earth. From northern late autumn to early spring growing modes do occur, peaking in northern high latitudes and near winter solstice. Reducing the size of the initial perturbations increases global growth rates in most cases, supporting the idea that instabilities which saturate nonlinearly at lower amplitudes have generally faster growth rates. In late autumn/early winter the fastest-growing modes (,bred vectors') are around the north pole, increase with dust loading, and probably grow via barotropic as well as baroclinic energy conversion. In northern late winter/early spring the bred vectors are around the north pole and are strongly baroclinic in nature. As dust loading (and with it the global circulation strength) is increased their growth rates first decrease, as the baroclinic mode is suppressed, then increase again as the fastest-growing instabilities switch to being those which dominated earlier in the year. If dust levels are very low during late northern autumn (late southern spring) then baroclinic modes are also found around the spring pole in the south, though for a slight increase in dust loading the dominant modes shift back to northern high latitudes. The bred vectors are also used as perturbations to the initial conditions for ensemble simulations. One possible application within the Mars model is as a means of identifying regions and times when dust-lifting activity (related to surface wind stress) might show significant interannual variability for a given model configuration, without the need to perform long, computationally expensive multi-year model runs with each new set-up. This is tested for a time of year when previous multi-year experiments showed significant variability in dust storm onset in the region north of Chryse. Despite the model having no feedbacks between dust lifting and atmospheric state (unlike the original multi-year run), the ensemble members still show maximum divergence in this region in terms of near-surface wind stress, suggesting both that this application deserves further testing, and that the intrinsic atmospheric variability alone may be important in producing interannual variability in this storm type. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||