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Electoral Prospects (electoral + prospect)
Selected AbstractsHOW DID THE 2003 PRESCRIPTION DRUG RE-IMPORTATION BILL PASS THE HOUSE?ECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 1 2006OMER GOKCEKUS We examine the major interest groups in the debate over allowing the re-importation of prescription drugs by utilizing a logit model and instrumental variables. Consistent with political support approach, the evidence suggests that Representatives are maximizing their electoral prospects: contributions from pharmaceutical manufacturers shrink the probability of voting for the bill; and Representatives are sensitive to their constituencies , employees of pharmaceutical manufacturing and senior citizens. Representatives' gender and ideology regarding free trade and subsidies are also determining factors. However, the decision was, by and large, a partisan one: party affiliation was the most important factor in passing the bill. [source] When is the median voter paradigm a reasonable guide for policy choices in a representative democracy?ECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 3 2003Alex Cukierman The median voter paradigm (MVP) has been widely used to study the interactions between economic and political behavior. While this approach is easy to work with, it abstracts from institutional detail. This paper explores whether the MVP leads on average to the same policies that would be chosen in a two-party representative democracy (RD). When it does not, the paper fully characterizes the size and magnitude of the average divergence (or bias) between policy choices in MVP and in RD in terms of the degree of polarization between the parties, their relative electoral prospects, and the distribution of electoral uncertainty. The results are then applied to the influential Meltzer and Richard (1981) theory of the size of government. [source] A Parliamentary Victory: The British Labour Party and Irish Republican Deportees, 1923PARLIAMENTARY HISTORY, Issue 2 2010IVAN GIBBONS After the 1918 general election the Labour Party became the official opposition party at Westminster. In response to the growing Irish republican campaign to establish an independent Irish state the Labour Party had to re-assess its relationship with Irish nationalism. The Labour Party was now acutely conscious that it was on the verge of forming a government and was concerned to be seen by the British electorate as a responsible, moderate and patriotic government-in-waiting. Although it had traditionally supported Irish demands for home rule and was vehemently opposed to the partition of Ireland, the Labour Party became increasingly wary of any closer relationship with extreme Irish nationalism which it believed would only damage its rapidly improving electoral prospects. Therefore the Labour Party supported the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921 even though it underpinned the partition of Ireland and sought to distance itself from any association with Irish republicanism as the new Irish Free State drifted into civil war. In early 1923 the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) alighted upon the new issue of the arrest and deportation without trial, to the Irish Free State, of Irish republicans living in Britain who were obviously British citizens. The attraction of this campaign for the Labour Party was that it enabled the party to portray itself as the defender of Irish people living in Britain without having to take sides in the Irish civil war. In addition the Labour Party was able to present itself as the protector of civil liberties in Britain against the excesses of an overweening and authoritarian Conservative government. One of the main reasons the issue was progressed so energetically on the floor of the House by the new PLP was because it now contained many Independent Labour Party (ILP) ,Red Clydesiders' who themselves had been interned without trial during the First World War. Through brilliant and astute use of parliamentary tactics Bonar Law's Conservative government was forced into an embarrassing climb-down which required the cobbling together of an Indemnity Bill which gave tory ministers retrospective legal protection for having exceeded their authority. By any standard, it was a major achievement by a novice opposition party. It enhanced the party's reputation and its growing sophistication in the use of parliamentary tactics benefited it electorally at the next election which led to the first Labour government. [source] Systematically Dependent Competing Risks and Strategic RetirementAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2009Kentaro Fukumoto In many applications of survival analysis, the risk of an event occurring for one reason is dependent on the risk of the same event occurring for another reason. For example, when politicians suspect they might lose an election, they may strategically choose to retire. In such situations, the often-used multinomial logit model suffers from bias and underestimates the degree of strategic retirement, for example, to what extent poor prior electoral performance diminishes electoral prospects. To address this problem, the present article proposes a systematically dependent competing-risks (SDCR) model of survival analysis. Unlike the frailty model, the SDCR model can also deal with more than two risks. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates how much the SDCR model reduces bias. Reanalysis of data on U.S. congressional careers (Box-Steffensmeier and Jones 2004) documents the strategic retirement of representatives, indicating that electoral pressure is more effective at turning out incumbents than previously recognized. [source] | ||||||||||