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Economic Variables (economic + variable)
Selected AbstractsWHICH VARIABLES EXPLAIN DECISIONS ON IMF CREDIT?ECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 2 2005AN EXTREME BOUNDS ANALYSIS This paper analyses which economic and political factors affect the chance that a country receives IMF credit or signs an agreement with the Fund. We use a panel model for 118 countries over the period 1971,2000. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that it is mostly economic variables that are robustly related to IMF lending activity, while most political variables that have been put forward in previous studies on IMF involvement are non-significant. To the extent that political factors matter, they seem more closely related to the conclusion of IMF agreements than to the disbursement of IMF credits. [source] The Entrepreneurial Propensity of WomenENTREPRENEURSHIP THEORY AND PRACTICE, Issue 3 2007Nan Langowitz Entrepreneurship is becoming an increasingly important source of employment for women across many countries. The level of female involvement in entrepreneurial activity, however, is still significantly lower than that of men. We take a behavioral economics approach and, using a large sample of individuals in 17 countries, we investigate what variables influence the entrepreneurial propensity of women and whether those variables have a significant correlation with differences across genders. In addition to demographic and economic variables, we include a number of perceptual variables. Our results show that subjective perceptual variables have a crucial influence on the entrepreneurial propensity of women and account for much of the difference in entrepreneurial activity between the sexes. Specifically, we find that women tend to perceive themselves and the entrepreneurial environment in a less favorable light than men across all countries in our sample and regardless of entrepreneurial motivation. Our results suggest that perceptual variables may be significant universal factors influencing entrepreneurial behavior. [source] Classification Analysis of World Economic RegionsGEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, Issue 4 2001Raymond J. Dezzani Economic classifications of countries are of continuing utility for comparative and analytic purposes. However, traditional methods of arriving at classifications are often ad hoc, subjective, and imprecise, not permitting the assignments to be used for closer analysis. Discriminant analysis is used in this paper to isolate a time-specific set of economic factors delimiting economic state categories that correspond to core-periphery states. The core-periphery framework is shown to be a special case of a hierarchical market scheme. The purposes of this work are (1) to create a theoretically grounded, empirically derived classification over several time periods to permit dynamic comparisons to be made and provide an explanation of change in the global economy, and (2) to provide feedback information from the classification to supply the necessary rigor and quantitative insight to the world-systems theoretical framework. Results of the analysis suggest that different economic variables provide varying levels of explanation at different times. In particular, variables representing factor endowment provide a greater measure of explanation early in the sequence (for example, 1960) while trade and investment measures are of greater importance in the latter part of the study sequence (for example, 1990). OPEC countries significantly bifurcate the world-economy classification in 1970 and exhibit separate class characteristics. Even within the short time period, a number of countries are shown to transit among the classes. The model is also able to capture the dependence structure implicit in the world-systems framework. [source] Popular Attitudes, Globalization and Risk,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2005Marcus Noland Popular opposition to globalization may be interpreted as xenophobia or hostility to market economics and signal country risk, including the degree of security risk , the possibility that local staff or facilities could be subject to discriminatory treatment, harassment or attack. This paper integrates the Pew Global Attitudes data into a series of economic models on foreign direct investment (FDI), sovereign ratings and local entrepreneurship, and finds that some responses correlate with economic variables of interest, conveying information beyond what can be explained through standard models. More tolerant countries attract more FDI, obtain better ratings and exhibit more entrepreneurship. [source] Macroeconomic factors and share returns: an analysis using emerging market dataINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2002S.G.M. Fifield Abstract This paper investigates the extent to which global and local economic factors explain returns in emerging stock markets (ESMs). The economic factors are determined using principal components analysis. The results suggest that the local economic variables included in this study can be summarized by GDP, inflation, money and interest rates, while the selected global variables can be sufficiently characterized by world industrial production and world inflation. These components are then used as inputs into a regression analysis in order to explain the index returns of 13 ESMs over the period 1987,96. The analysis indicates that while world factors are significant in explaining ESM returns, local factors may also play a crucial role. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A longitudinal evaluation of two-year outcome in a community-based mental health service using graphical chain modelsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF METHODS IN PSYCHIATRIC RESEARCH, Issue 1 2004The South-Verona Outcome Project Abstract The 2-year outcome of 178 patients attending a community-based mental health service was assessed from a multidimensional perspective. The study investigated: (1) the effect of disease-related characteristics (such as diagnosis and illness duration) and of a series of outcome variables measured at baseline (global functioning, psychopathology, social disability, quality of life and satisfaction with services) on total costs of care over 2 years; and (2) the effect of costs of care and outcome variables measured at baseline on the corresponding outcome variables at 2 years. To gain insight into the multivariate longitudinal dependencies among variables, we used graphical Gaussian chain models, a new multivariate method that analyses the relationship between continuous variables taking into account the effect of antecedent and intervening variables, to reveal not only direct but also indirect correlations. Outcome variables showed the tendency to segregate, both at baseline and follow-up, into two distinct groups: a clinician-rated dimension (given by global functioning, social disability and psychopathology) and a patient-rated dimension (given by service satisfaction and subjective quality of life). Higher costs at 2 years were predicted by higher psychopathology at baseline, diagnosis of psychosis and longer duration of illness. Baseline values for each variable were the main predictors of the corresponding values at two years. Improvement in satisfaction with life at follow-up was experienced in those subjects with a lower functioning at baseline. This study throws some light on the complex relationships between clinical, social and economic variables affecting the medium-term outcome of mental health care. Copyright © 2004 Whurr Publishers Ltd. [source] A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling errorJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 3 2005William T. Gavin Abstract Is there a common model inherent in macroeconomic data? Macroeconomic theory suggests that market economies of various nations should share many similar dynamic patterns; as a result, individual country empirical models, for a wide variety of countries, often include the same variables. Yet, empirical studies often find important roles for idiosyncratic shocks in the differing macroeconomic performance of countries. We use forecasting criteria to examine the macrodynamic behaviour of 15 OECD countries in terms of a small set of familiar, widely used core economic variables, omitting country-specific shocks. We find this small set of variables and a simple VAR ,common model' strongly support the hypothesis that many industrialized nations have similar macroeconomic dynamics. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Term premia and the maturity composition of the Federal debt: new evidence from the term structure of interest ratesJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 7 2001Basma Bekdache Abstract This paper models bond term premia empirically in terms of the maturity composition of the federal debt and other observable economic variables in a time-varying framework with potential regime shifts. We present regression and out-of sample forecasting results demonstrating that information on the age composition of the Federal debt is useful for forecasting term premia. We show that the multiprocess mixture model, a multi-state time-varying parameter model, outperforms the commonly used GARCH model in out-of-sample forecasts of term premia. The results underscore the importance of modelling term premia, as a function of economic variables rather than just as a function of asset covariances as in the conditional heteroscedasticity models. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Choosing among competing econometric forecasts: Regression-based forecast combination using model selectionJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 6 2001Norman R. Swanson Abstract Forecast combination based on a model selection approach is discussed and evaluated. In addition, a combination approach based on ex ante predictive ability is outlined. The model selection approach which we examine is based on the use of Schwarz (SIC) or the Akaike (AIC) Information Criteria. Monte Carlo experiments based on combination forecasts constructed using possibly (misspecified) models suggest that the SIC offers a potentially useful combination approach, and that further investigation is warranted. For example, combination forecasts from a simple averaging approach MSE-dominate SIC combination forecasts less than 25% of the time in most cases, while other ,standard' combination approaches fare even worse. Alternative combination approaches are also compared by conducting forecasting experiments using nine US macroeconomic variables. In particular, artificial neural networks (ANN), linear models, and professional forecasts are used to form real-time forecasts of the variables, and it is shown via a series of experiments that SIC, t -statistic, and averaging combination approaches dominate various other combination approaches. An additional finding is that while ANN models may not MSE-dominate simpler linear models, combinations of forecasts from these two models outperform either individual forecast, for a subset of the economic variables examined. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] An economic model of self-help groups: policy implications for banks and NGO initiativesJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 8 2001Sashi Sivramkrishna In India, the Self-Help Group (SHG) has emerged as a suitable innovative institution in bringing formal financial sector credit to poor. This article constructs an economic typology of SHGs based on four important economic variables, namely, interest on members' savings paid by the SHG, sharing of SHG surpluses by members, members' claim on exit from the SHG and lending rates charged by the SHG to members. An economic analysis of each type of SHG shows these variables to be important in terms of the members' costs of borrowing and demand for credit. Based on the analysis, some leads for a set of policy guidelines for each type of SHG are presented. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The Economic Effects of Human RightsKYKLOS INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, Issue 4 2007Lorenz Blume SUMMARY There are three positions concerning the economic effects of human rights discussed among economists. Some economists argue that only property rights matter for economic growth and basic human rights can even make the legal system less efficient. Others argue that negative rights are generally welfare increasing while positive rights tend to reduce income and growth over time. Yet a third group of economists argues that elements of all groups of human rights are a precondition for making productive use of one's resources and are thus efficiency-enhancing. Based on a cross-country analysis, the effects of different groups of human rights on economic growth are estimated in this paper. The transmission channels through which the different rights affect growth are identified by estimating their effects on investment and overall productivity. Basic human rights have indeed a positive effect on investment, but do not seem to contribute to productivity. Social rights, in turn, are not conducive to investment in physical capital but do contribute to productivity improvements. None of the four groups of rights covered in this analysis ever has a significant negative effect on any of the economic variables included. [source] Dropping the Books and Working Off the BooksLABOUR, Issue 2 2010Rita Cappariello The paper empirically tests the relationship between underground labour and schooling achievement for Italy, a country ranking badly in both respects when compared with other high-income economies, with a marked duality between North and South. In order to identify underground workers, we exploit the information on individuals' social security positions available from the Bank of Italy's Survey on Household Income and Wealth. After controlling for a wide range of sociodemographic and economic variables and addressing potential endogeneity and selection issues, we show that a low level of education sizeably and significantly increases the probability of working underground. Switching from completing compulsory school to graduating at college more than halves this probability for both men and women. The gain is slightly higher for individuals completing the compulsory track with respect to those having no formal education at all. The different probabilities found for self-employed and dependent workers support the view of a dual informal sector, in which necessity and desirability coexist. [source] Voters, Parties, and the Endogenous Size of GovernmentAMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 1 2002Jans-Peter Olters Elections, often to a considerable degree, influence the fiscal policies of governments installed on the basis of their results. Yet, economists have tended to view politicians' behaviour either as being determined exogenously or as the result of a social planner's maximisation of a well-defined social-welfare function (subject to some appropriate technology and resource constraints). The latter approach, given (i) its inherent abstraction from important politico-economic interactions, (ii) the theoretical difficulty in deriving a non-contradictory "collective utility function" (as demonstrated by Arrow), and (iii) the inability to estimate a stable relationship that could explain political preferences with economic variables,is viewed as being an unsatisfactory tool for the joint description of a country's economy and polity. On the basis of explicit micro-economic foundations and a democratically coordinated decision-making mechanism over the "optimal" provision of public goods and the corresponding taxes required to finance them, this paper will introduce a simple economic model of politics that subjects individuals to a,two-tiered,political decision-making process over party membership and electoral participation, thereby endogenising the evolution of the competing parties' ideologies, households' electoral behaviour, and the key factors explaining the design of fiscal policies. Having the majority party's median delegate determine on the "optimal" degree of income redistribution suggests that a country's wealth distribution is a crucial explanatory variable explaining its politico-economic development path. [source] The Political Economy of Polarization: The Italian Case, 1963,1987POLITICS & POLICY, Issue 1 2003Riccardo Pelizzo Economic voting in Italy has received scant attention in the literature, and the few studies available show little or no empirical support for economic voting hypotheses as applied to Italy. We argue that this dearth of results is primarily due to poor operationalization and study design. In contrast to previous studies that focused on the relationship between the state of the economy and the electoral performance of individual parties, we investigate the impact of prices, employment, and economic output on the polarization of the party system. Using data on seven Italian national elections covering the period 1963,87, we show that polarization is, in fact, closely related to macroeconomic performance. Additionally, in contrast to past studies of Italy, the results are robust with respect to the lag period of the economic variables. [source] State Charter School Adoptions: A Probit Regression ModelPOLITICS & POLICY, Issue 1 2002Shad Satterthwaite This paper assesses the factors that spur states to adopt charter school legislation. Using a probit regression model, this study considers political, economic, and education related variables and their effect on policy. In this model, little support is found for political explanations. Moreover, this study casts doubt on conventional wisdom, which contends that the purpose of reform is to improve education. The model suggests that a state's economic variables are the best predictors for charter school adoption. [source] Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New ZealandTHE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2005John Creedy As the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range of economic variables, including in particular the fiscal costs of social expenditures. Long-term fiscal planning requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This article presents projections for 14 categories of social spending. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of gross domestic product using simulation. Attention is focused on health expenditures which are disaggregated into seven broad classes. In addition, we explore the impacts of alternative hypotheses about future health costs. While it can be predicted with some confidence that overall social expenditures will rise, the results suggest that long-term planning would be enriched by recognising the distributions around point estimates of projected social costs. [source] Household Debt and Financial Constraints in AustraliaTHE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2005Gianni La Cava Over the past decade, household debt (as a share of household income) has reached historically high levels. This has raised concerns about whether, as a result of the rise in debt, households are now more financially ,fragile'. Using household survey data, a logit model is constructed to examine the relationship between the probability of being financially constrained and the economic and demographic characteristics of households in Australia. We find that the probability of a household being constrained is significantly affected by demographic and economic variables such as age, home ownership, weekly household income, and the share of income going to repayments on mortgage debt. Comparing survey results across time, it appears that the overall proportion of households that are financially constrained has fallen or, at worst, remained unchanged between 1994 and 2001. Much of the rise in debt appears to have been due to unconstrained households taking on more debt. As such, the rise in the aggregate debt to income ratio associated with owner-occupier mortgages appears to be the result of voluntary household choice and not to be associated with an increase in household financial distress. [source] Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share EquationsAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2009Ray C. Fair Three vote-share equations are estimated and analyzed in this article, one for presidential elections, one for on-term House elections, and one for midterm House elections. The sample period is 1916,2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The main conclusions are (1) there is strong evidence that the economy affects all three vote shares and in remarkably similar ways; (2) there is no evidence of any presidential coattail effects on the on-term House elections; (3) there is positive serial correlation in the House vote, which likely reflects a positive incumbency effect for elected representatives; and (4) the presidential vote share has a negative effect on the next midterm House vote share, which is likely explained by a balance argument. [source] The Relationship Between Economic Factors and Equity Markets in Central EuropeTHE ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION, Issue 3 2000Jan Hanousek This paper investigates the possibility that newly-emerging equity markets in Central Europe exhibit semi-strong form efficiency such that no relationship exists between lagged values of changes in economic variables and changes in equity prices. We find that while there are connections between the real economy and equity market returns in Poland and Hungary, these links occur with lags, suggesting the possibility of profitable trading strategies based on public information and rejecting semi-strong efficiency. For the Czech Republic the situation is more complex. In recent periods, little connection exists between lagged economic variables and equity market returns. Although this finding might be viewed as consistent with semi-strong efficiency, in fact there is also little connection between current economic values and stock prices in the Czech Republic. Thus, instead of processing information efficiently, the Czech market appears to be entirely divorced from the real world. It is suggested that the difference in the current status of these markets may be due to the different methods by which they were created. [source] Economic determinants of default risks and their impacts on credit derivative pricing,THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 11 2010Szu-Lang Liao This study constructs a credit derivative pricing model using economic fundamentals to evaluate CDX indices and quantify the relationship between credit conditions and the economic environment. Instead of selecting specific economic variables, numerous economic and financial variables have been condensed into a few explanatory factors to summarize the noisy economic system. The impacts on default intensity processes are then examined based on no-arbitrage pricing constraints. The approximated results show that economic factors indicated credit problems even before the recent subprime mortgage crisis, and economic fundamentals strongly influenced credit conditions. Testing of out-of-sample data shows that credit evolution can be identified by dynamic explanatory factors. Consequently, the factor-based pricing model can either facilitate the evaluation of default probabilities or manage default risks more effectively by quantifying the relationship between economic environment and credit conditions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark [source] Qualitative modelling for the development of a sustainable management strategy for the Peruvian scallop Argopecten purpuratus (Lamarck 1819)AQUATIC CONSERVATION: MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS, Issue 3 2002Marco Ortiz Abstract 1.This study is the first attempt using Levins's Theory (loop analysis) in order to develop a sustainable management for the scallop, Argopecten purpuratus, fishery in Peru during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events (ENSO) and upwelling conditions. Based on this theoretical framework, it was possible to estimate the local stability for each of these model systems and to follow the qualitative changes of the variables in response to external factors. 2.Based on our results, we suggest the following management policies to be implemented: (1) during ENSO events the size at the first capture of the scallops should be >70 mm and (2) the increase in the number of fishermen during ENSO events must be prevented. Both measures increase the sustainability of fishery under ENSO and upwelling conditions. The ecological models predict that during ENSO and upwelling events, any management strategy to increase the recruitment of the scallop would not have a positive impact on the adult stock. 3.Finally, we suggest that more efforts must be focused on the development of extended eco-social models, which incorporate further social and economic variables, increasing realism of the abstractions for this fishery activity. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Marching toward a Harmonious Society: Happiness, Regime Satisfaction, and Government Performance in Contemporary Urban ChinaASIAN POLITICS AND POLICY, Issue 3 2009Diqing Lou This study examined the happiness of citizens in urban China. Empirical measurements were made of the relationship of reported happiness to economic variables, as well as to citizens' satisfaction with government policies. Employing the 2002 Asian Barometer Survey and the Amelia statistical software package, I found that happiness is strongly correlated both to absolute economic conditions and to relative economic status. Furthermore, citizens who perceived government policies as being responsive to their needs were more likely to report a high level of personal well-being. This empirical analysis confirms the direction of Chinese leader Hu Jintao's development strategy, which seeks to promote widespread economic prosperity among Chinese citizens. The study results indicate that a healthy and balanced economy is essential in improving urban happiness in China. Based on these results, I argue that the Chinese government can further improve citizen happiness by providing ample employment opportunities and promoting progressive housing policies. [source] Co-Movement Towards a Currency or Monetary Union?AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 3 2001An Empirical Study for New Zealand This paper analyses whether New Zealand would be ready to form a currency or monetary union with either Australia, the 11 EU countries that are members of the EMU, Japan, or the US, if the criteria that have been used by researchers for the EMU are applied. The analysis is an empirical study with data from the mid 1980s to 1998, using cointegration techniques to search for co-movement and convergence in key economic variables: interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rates, real GDP, and current-account/GDP ratios. [source] Multivariate Markov Switching Common Factor Models for the UKBULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 2 2003Terence C. Mills We estimate a model that incorporates two key features of business cycles, comovement among economic variables and switching between regimes of boom and slump, to quarterly UK data for the last four decades. A common factor, interpreted as a composite indicator of coincident variables, and estimates of turning points from one regime to the other, are extracted from the data by using the Kalman filter and maximum likelihood estimation. Both comovement and regime switching are found to be important features of the UK business cycle. The composite indicator produces a sensible representation of the cycle and the estimated turning points agree fairly well with independently determined chronologies. These estimates are sharper than those produced by a univariate Markov switching model of GDP alone. A fairly typical stylized fact of business cycles is confirmed by this model , recessions are steeper and shorter than recoveries. [source] Credit market imperfections and exchange rate variabilityCANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2000Wai-Ming Ho In this paper a two-country overlapping generations model is presented in which the roles of financial factors in the international monetary transmission mechanism are studied and whether and how the two types of credit market imperfections, limited participation, and costly state verification may contribute to the high variability of exchange rates are examined. Liquidity effects generated by monetary disturbances are shown to have qualitatively similar effects on the world economy in the perfect information case and in the costly information case. However, quantitative differences provide dfferent predictions about the variability of economic variables in the world economy. JEL Classification: F31, F41 Ce mémoire présente un modèle de deux pays où les générations se chevauchent pour étudier le rôle des facteurs financiers dans le mécanisme de transmission monétaire international, et pour examiner si les deux types d'imperfection (participation limitée et contrôle étatique coûteux) peuvent contribuer à une grande variabilité des taux de change et de quelle manière. On montre que les effets de liquidité engendrés par les perturbations monétaires ont les mêmes effets qualitatifs sur l'économie mondiale que l'information soit parfaite ou coûteuse. Cependant, il y a des différences quantitatives. Ces différences suggèrent des écarts dans les prévisions quant à la variabilité des variables économiques dans l'économie mondiale. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||