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Economic Forecasts (economic + forecast)
Selected AbstractsSUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: ECONOMIC FORECASTS 2009-2010AFRICA RESEARCH BULLETIN: ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL SERIES, Issue 4 2009Article first published online: 4 JUN 200 No abstract is available for this article. [source] Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigationJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 1 2009Sinan Gönül Abstract A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts, the provision of a clear justifiable rationale and accuracy. Cost was less important. Forecasts were frequently adjusted when they lacked a justifiable explanation, when the user felt they could integrate their knowledge into the forecast, or where the user perceived a need to take responsibility for the forecast. Forecasts were less frequently adjusted when they came from a well-known source and were based on sound explanations and assumptions. The presence of feedback on accuracy reduced the influence of these factors. The seniority and experience of users had little effect on their attitudes or propensity to make adjustments. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecastsJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 1 2003Jordi Pons-Novell Abstract Professional forecasters can have other objectives as well as minimizing expected squared forecast errors. This paper studies whether the people or companies which make forecasts behave strategically with the aim of maximizing aspects such as publicity, salary or their prestige, or more generally to minimize some loss function; or whether, on the contrary, they make forecasts which resemble consensus forecasts (herding behaviour). This study also analyses whether, as forecasters gain more reputation and experience, they make more radical forecasts, that is, they deviate further from the consensus. For this the Livingston Survey is used, a panel of experts who make forecasts on the future evolution of the United States economy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Is Post-War Economic Growth Exponential?THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2006Sören Wibe In this article, we argue that there are strong reasons for using linear instead of exponential models when analysing post-war economic growth. Incorrect model specifications will lead to misinterpretations of the underlying economic reality and to erroneous economic forecasts. Our argument is based on an empirical investigation of real GDP per capita growth in 25 OECD countries (and three country aggregates) during the post-war period using the Box-Cox transformation method. The conclusion is that per capita growth is generally (more or less) linear (and definitely not exponential) for the level of economic development represented by these countries. Based on this we argue that analyses of growth should use linear instead of exponential models. This change of model could give new insights into problems connected with economic growth. [source] | ||||||||||