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Econometric Techniques (econometric + techniques)
Selected AbstractsMacroeconomics and the Real World: Volume 1: Econometric Techniques and Macroeconomics.THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 480 2002Edited by BACKHOUSE (ROGER E.), SALANTI (ANDREA). First page of article [source] THE GRAVITY MODEL: AN ILLUSTRATION OF STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION AS CALIBRATIONECONOMIC INQUIRY, Issue 4 2008EDWARD J. BALISTRERI Dawkins, Srinivasan, and Whalley ("Calibration,"Handbook of Econometrics, 2001) propose that estimation is calibration. We illustrate their point by examining a leading econometric application in the study of international and interregional trade by Anderson and van Wincoop ("Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"American Economic Review, 2003). We replicate the econometric process and show it to be a calibration of a general equilibrium model. Our approach offers unique insights into structural estimation, and we highlight the importance of traditional calibration considerations when one uses econometric techniques to calibrate a model for comparative policy analysis. (JEL F10, C13, C60) [source] Life Cycle and Cohort Productivity in Economic Research: The Case of GermanyGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2008Michael Rauber Research productivity; life cycles; cohort effects Abstract. We examine the research productivity of German academic economists over their life cycles. It turns out that the career patterns of research productivity as measured by journal publications are characterized by marked cohort effects. Moreover, the life cycles of younger German economists are hump shaped and resemble the life cycles identified for US economists, whereas the life cycles of older German economists are much flatter. Finally, we find that not only productivity, but also research quality follows distinct life cycles. Our study employs econometric techniques that are likely to produce estimates that are more trustworthy than previous estimates. [source] Maternal employment and overweight children: does timing matter?HEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 8 2008Stephanie von Hinke Kessler Scholder Abstract Recent literature has shown consistent evidence of a positive relationship between maternal employment and children's overweight status. These studies largely use average weekly work hours over the child's life to measure employment. This paper specifically aims at exploring the importance of the timing of employment. Using various econometric techniques to control for observable and unobservable child and family characteristics, the results show that full-time maternal employment during mid-childhood positively affects the probability of being overweight at age 16. There is no evidence that part-time or full-time employment at earlier/later ages affects this probability. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?,JCMS: JOURNAL OF COMMON MARKET STUDIES, Issue 5 2004CARLO ALTAVILLA The article analyses alternative approaches for dating the business cycles of a set of European monetary union (EMU) member states. First, the framework for analysing cyclical behaviour in economic activity is presented. Second, the dating algorithm is applied to both the classical cycle and the growth cycle in order to recover stylized facts of the business cycle in Europe. Third, the article utilizes different econometric techniques to evaluate the synchronicity of national cycles and the euro area aggregate cycle, and compare the results with that of the USA. A convergence analysis is also employed. Finally, a multivariate extension of the Hamilton-Markov switching model is constructed to analyse the euro area business cycle. The results suggest that, although during the main recessionary periods the euro area economies shared a similar output dynamic, some differences still remain in the size and timing of the business cycle features. The results also suggest that adhesion to the new currency area is likely to lead to stronger synchronization of EMU members' business cycles. [source] Long-range dependence in Spanish political opinion poll seriesJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 2 2003Juan J. Dolado This paper investigates the time series properties of partisanship for five political parties in Spain. It is found that pure fractional processes with a degree of integration, d, between 0.6 and 0.8 fit the time-series behaviour of aggregate opinion polls for mainstream parties quite well, whereas values of d in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 are obtained for opinion polls related to smaller regional parties. Those results are in agreement with theories of political allegiance based on aggregation of heterogeneous voters with different degrees of commitment and pragmatism. Further, those models are found to be useful in forecasting the results of the last general elections in Spain. As a further contribution, new econometric techniques for estimation and testing of ARFIMA model are used to provide the previous evidence. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] MONETARY POLICY AND BEHAVIOURAL FINANCEJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 5 2007K. Cuthbertson Abstract There have been major advances in both theory and econometric techniques in mainstream macro-models and parallel advances in knowledge of the monetary transmission mechanism acting via asset prices. At the same time, behavioural finance has provided evidence that not all actors in the economy are ,fully rational' and this has influenced models of asset pricing on which part of the monetary policy transmission mechanism depends. Such uncertainty about the behaviour of asset prices has in part stimulated a move towards ,robustness', as an important criterion for guiding monetary policy. We argue that although we have discovered much, including ,what not to do', nevertheless our knowledge of the transmission mechanism is very incomplete. This is because, in spite of all the theoretical advances that have been made, there is still considerable uncertainty over the behaviour of agents, which has been reinforced by insights from behavioural finance. [source] Influence of Health and Environmental Information on Hedonic Evaluation of Organic and Conventional BreadJOURNAL OF FOOD SCIENCE, Issue 4 2008L.E. Annett ABSTRACT:, Grain from paired samples of the hard red spring wheat cultivar "Park" grown on both conventionally and organically managed land was milled and baked into 60% whole wheat bread. Consumers (n= 384) rated their liking of the bread samples on a 9-point hedonic scale before (blind) and after (labeled) receiving information about organic production. Consumers liked organic bread more (P < 0.05) than conventional bread under blind and labeled conditions. Environmental information about organic production did not impact consumer preference changes for organic bread, but health information coupled with sensory evaluation increased liking of organic bread. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and binary response (probit) regression models identified that postsecondary education, income level, frequency of bread consumption, and proenvironmental attitudes played a significant role in preference changes for organic bread. The techniques used in this study demonstrate that a combination of sensory and econometric techniques strengthens the evaluation of consumer food choice. [source] Deforestation and land use change: sparse data environmentsAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2002Gerald C. Nelson Abstract Understanding determinants of land use in developing countries has become a priority for researchers and policy makers with a wide range of interests. For the vast majority of these land use issues, the location of change is as important as its magnitude. This overview paper highlights new economic approaches to modeling land use determinants that combine non-traditional data sources with novel economic models and econometric techniques. A key feature is that location is central to the analysis. All data elements include an explicit location attribute, estimation techniques include the potential for complications from spatial effects, and results are location-specific. The paper reviews the theory underlying these models. Since this paper is intended to provide the potential new researcher with an introduction to the challenges of this analysis, we present an overview of how remotely-sensed data are collected and processed, describe key GIS concepts and identify sources of data for this type of econometric analysis. Finally, selected papers using these techniques are reviewed. [source] Exports and economic growth: The case of South Africa,JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 5 2009Logan Rangasamy Abstract Economic policy has always accorded an important role to export production in the overall growth process in South Africa. Recent policy proposals once again reaffirm this commitment. This paper attempts to ascertain whether the emphasis on export production is justified. Using modern econometric techniques within a multivariate framework, the results show that there is uni-directional Granger-causality running from exports to economic growth in South Africa. In addition, the gross domestic product (GDP) accounting identity underestimates the contribution of exports to economic growth. Thus, deliberate policy measures that stimulate export production will greatly enhance the growth prospects for the South African economy. The results in this paper also indicate that more attention should be given to the promotion of non-primary exports. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Wage differentials between the public and private sectors in India,JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 3 2007Elena Glinskaya Abstract This study uses 1993,94 and 1999,2000 rounds of India Employment and Unemployment survey to investigate wage differentials between the public and private sectors. To obtain robust estimates of the wage differential, we apply three econometric techniques each relying on a different set of assumptions about the process of job selection and wage formation. All three methods show that differences in wages between public sector workers and workers in the formal-private and informal-casual sectors are positive and high. On average, the public sector premium ranges between 62 and 102 per,cent over the private-formal sector, and between 164 and 259 per,cent over the informal-casual sector, depending on the choice of methodology. The wage differentials in India tend to be higher in rural as compared to urban areas, and are higher among women than among men. The wage differential also tends to be higher for low-skilled workers. There is considerable evidence of an increase in the wage differential between 1993,1994 and 1999,2000. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Transnational Corporations and Repression of Political Rights and Civil Liberties: An Empirical AnalysisKYKLOS INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, Issue 1 2004Matthias Busse Summary Transnational Corporations are often accused by non-governmental organisations of ignoring fundamental democratic rights, such as civil liberties and political rights, in the countries of their investments. This paper attempts to explore empirically the complex relationship between foreign investment and democracy in a systematic way, using different econometric techniques. In contrast to the public discussion over recent years and the view held by non-governmental organisations, the results show that enhanced democratic rights are associated with higher foreign investment in the 1990s. Interestingly, this positive link does not hold for the 1970s and 1980s, when a substantial portion of foreign investment went to countries with repressive governments. [source] IS THERE UNIT ROOT IN THE NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS: A MONTE CARLO INVESTIGATION?NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING, Issue 1 2010NINA S. JONES Abstract Use of the time-series econometric techniques to investigate issues about environmental regulation requires knowing whether air pollution emissions are trend stationary or difference stationary. It has been shown that results regarding trend stationarity of the pollution data are sensitive to the methods used. I conduct a Monte Carlo experiment to study the size and power of two unit root tests that allow for a structural change in the trend at a known time using the data-generating process calibrated to the actual pollution series. I find that finite sample properties of the Perron test are better than the Park and Sung Phillips-Perron (PP) type test. Severe size distortions in the Park and Sung PP type test can explain the rejection of a unit root in air pollution emissions reported in some environmental regulation analyses. [source] CLIMATE CHANGE AND FISHERIES: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT IN ICELAND AND GREENLANDNATURAL RESOURCE MODELING, Issue 2 2007RAGNAR ARNASON ABSTRACT. . Climate changes in the 21st century are expected to significantly increase ocean temperatures and modify other oceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic. Marine biological research suggests that the impacts on the commercially most important fish stocks in the Icelandic-Greenland ecosystem may well be quite substantial. This will obviously lead to a corresponding impact on the economies of these two countries. However, the timing, extent and biological impact of global warming is quite uncertain. As a result the economic impact is similarly uncertain. This paper attempts to provide estimates of the impact of altered fish stocks due to global warming on the Icelandic and Greenland economies. The approach is one of stochastic simulations. This involves essentially three steps. The first is to obtain predictions of the impact of global warming on fish stocks and the associated probability distribution. For this we rely on recent marine biological predictions. The second step is to estimate the role of the fisheries sector in the two economies. This is done with the help of modern econometric techniques based on economic growth theory and historical data. Obviously these estimates are also subject to stochastic errors and uncertainty. The third step is to carry out Monte Carlo simulations on the basis of the above model and the associated uncertainties. The result of the Monte Carlo simulations consists of a set of dynamic paths for GDP over time with an expected value and a probability distribution for each future year. On this basis it is possible to calculate confidence intervals for the most likely path of GDP over time. The results indicate that the fisheries impact of global warming on the Icelandic GDP is more likely to be positive than negative but unlikely to be of significant magnitude compared to historical economic growth rates and fluctuations. The uncertainty of this prediction, however, is large. For Greenland, the impact on fish stocks and the GDP is highly likely to be positive and quite substantial relative to the current GDP. Due to less knowledge of the relationship between the fisheries sector and the Greenland economy, however, the confidence interval of this prediction is even wider than in the case of Iceland. [source] Transportation demand for petroleum products in Indonesia: a time series analysisOPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 2 2009Suleiman Sa'ad This paper used annual time series data for the period 1973 to 2007 in two econometric techniques [the structural time series model (STSM) and unrestricted error correction model (UECM)] developed to estimate petroleum products (gasoline and diesel) and demand functions for the transportation sector of Indonesia and make a forecast of per capita consumption of the total products until the year 2030 under three scenarios. The results from both models revealed that the demand for petroleum products are price inelastic, with an estimated long-run price elasticity of ,0.19 in the STSM and ,0.16 in the UECM. However, total petroleum is income elastic in the long run with a long-run income elasticity of 0.97 under the STSM and 0.88 in the UECM. The estimated demand functions are used to construct a projection of future transportation demand for petroleum products until 2030 under three alternative scenarios: business as usual, low case scenario and high case scenario. The results of this exercise suggests that by 2030, the demand for total petroleum products per capita for Indonesia will increase to about 0.498 toe in the STSM and 0.476 toe in the UECM under the baseline scenario, 0.197 toe in the STSM and 0.186 toe in the UECM under low case scenario and finally, 0.976 toe in the STSM and 0.886 toe under high case scenario. [source] Dealing with Benchmark Revisions in Real-Time Data: The Case of German Production and Orders Statistics,OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 2 2009Thomas A. Knetsch Abstract Benchmark revisions in non-stationary real-time data may adversely affect the results of regular revision analysis and the estimates of long-run economic relationships. Cointegration analysis can reveal the nature of vintage heterogeneity and guide the adjustment of real-time data for benchmark revisions. Affine vintage transformation functions estimated by cointegration regressions are a flexible tool, whereas differencing and rebasing work well only under certain circumstances. Inappropriate vintage transformation may cause observed revision statistics to be affected by nuisance parameters. Using real-time data of German industrial production and orders, the econometric techniques are exemplified and the theoretical claims are examined empirically. [source] New spatial econometric techniques and applications in regional sciencePAPERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2008Giuseppe Arbia First page of article [source] Has the increase in world-wide openness to trade worsened global income inequality?,PAPERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 2 2002Saurav Dev Bhatta Globalization; global inequality; trade; time-series Abstract This article contributes to our understanding of the relationship between globalization and world income inequality by analyzing the trend in global inequality for the period 1960,1989. Using Penn World Tables data and time-series econometric techniques, it analyzes how the increase in worldwide openness to trade has been related to global income inequality during this period. When differential population growth rates among the countries are taken into account, the results indicate that (i) global income inequality exhibited a downward trend between 1960 and 1989, and (ii) while there is a positive relationship between inequality and openness, the relationship is not statistically significant. [source] Some Econometric Issues in Convergence RegressionsTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 3 2003Adriana Di Liberto Despite the abundance of different econometric techniques introduced in the empirical literature on convergence, it is usually assumed that shocks are uncorrelated across countries. This is unlikely for most of the data sets considered and we investigate a possibility so far ignored, namely the annual panel estimator where shocks are allowed to be correlated. Our analysis is restricted to the case of T > N which allows us to estimate by maximum likelihood with an unrestricted variance,covariance matrix of cross-country shocks. We examine by Monte Carlo robustness against certain possible misspecifications, namely measurement error and heterogeneity of the convergence coefficients. [source] | |||||||||||||