Econometric Evidence (econometric + evidence)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: FURTHER ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH ASIA

THE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, Issue 4 2005
NASIM SHAH SHIRAZI
This paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five South Asian countries through cointegration and multivariate Granger causality tests. Strong support for a long-run relationship among exports, imports, and real output for all the countries except Sri Lanka were found. Feedback effects between exports and GDP for Bangladesh and Nepal and unidirectional causality from exports to output in the case of Pakistan were found. No causality between these variables was found for Sri Lanka and India, although for India GDP and exports did induce imports. A feedback effect between imports and GDP was also documented for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, as well as unidirectional causality from imports to output growth for Sri Lanka. These and other findings are discussed from the standpoint of the export-led growth hypothesis. [source]


External economies of scale in the Lancashire cotton industry, 1900,1950

ECONOMIC HISTORY REVIEW, Issue 1 2002
Stephen Broadberry
This article provides three types of evidence for external economies of scale in the Lancashire cotton industry. Anglo-American productivity differences are used to demon-strate external economies at the industry level. Econometric evidence of dynamic (Marshall-Arrow-Romer) external economies of localization in spinning and weaving is provided using individual earnings data. A case study of a merchant firm demonstrates the build-up of dynamic (Jacobs) externalities of urbanization. It is argued that the persistence of a large merchant community generating external economies of scale helped to delay Britain's loss of comparative advantage to low wage producers. [source]


Econometric evidence of cross-market effects of generic dairy advertising

AGRIBUSINESS : AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, Issue 1 2010
Metin Cakir
We estimate a dairy demand system to evaluate generic dairy advertising in the US, 1990,2005. Previous empirical studies of generic dairy advertising focus only on the market of the advertised good, ignoring potential spill-over and feedback effects. We specify an LA/AIDS model of dairy demand, which allows consistent estimation of cross-price and cross-advertising effects across dairy product markets, and is flexible and satisfies the axioms of consumer theory. We use the non-linear 3SLS estimator to address endogenous prices and serial correlation, and conduct bootstrapping to generate empirical distributions of elasticity estimates. Results suggest that cross-market effects are economically and statistically important. Thus, econometric dairy demand models that ignore cross-advertising and cross-price effects are mis-specified. Previous work that ignores substitution between fluid milk and cheese overstates producers' returns to generic advertising for either product. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source]


Productivity, exporting, and the learning-by-exporting hypothesis: direct evidence from UK firms

CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2008
Gustavo Crespi
Abstract., Case studies suggest exporters learn from clients. Econometric evidence is mixed. We use firm-level panel data on exporting and productivity with direct information on learning sources, including clients. We find: (a) firms who exported in the past are likely to learn more from clients (relative to other sources); (b) firms who learned from clients in the past are more likely to have faster productivity growth; (c) the reverse is not the case; that is, past productivity growth is not associated with more learning from clients and past learning from clients is not associated with more exporting. These results are consistent with the learning-by-exporting hypothesis. Des études de cas suggèrent que les exportateurs apprennent beaucoup de leurs clients. Les résultats de l'analyse économique sont moins concluants. On utilise des données de panel au niveau de la firme à propos des activités d'exportation et de la productivité, ainsi que des informations directes sur les sources d'apprentissage, y compris les clients. On découvre que (a) les firmes qui ont exporté dans le passé sont davantage susceptibles d'apprendre le plus de leurs clients (par rapport aux autres sources); (b) les firmes qui ont appris de leurs clients dans le passé sont davantage susceptibles d'avoir une croissance de productivité plus rapide; (c) le contraire n'est pas le cas, i.e., qu'une croissance de productivité dans le passé n'est pas associée avec plus d'apprentissage des clients, et que l'apprentissage dans le passé n'est pas associéà davantage d'exportation. Voilà qui est compatible avec l'hypothèse de l'apprentissage-par-l'exportation. [source]


UK Household Debt: A Threat to Growth or Stability?

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 1 2005
Article first published online: 2 FEB 200
The liberalisation of credit constraints in the 1970s for UK consumers has had important implications for the housing market and consumer spending. This paper by John Muellbauer1 examines the factors that have driven soaring consumer debt and house price levels; in particular those observed since the mid-1990s. By relying on recent econometric evidence and trends in credit availability, real income per head, nominal and real after tax mortgage rates, measures of perceived risk and broad demographic trends, it also analyses the prospects for house prices, mortgage debt and unsecured debt over the coming years. The outlook is for a ,soft landing' in the housing market and associated declines in the rate of growth of consumer debt, which, although probably not smooth, does suggest the underlying situation is more benign and less crisis-prone than it was in 1988,89. [source]


Aggregate Investment and Political Instability: An Econometric Investigation

ECONOMICA, Issue 279 2003
Nauro F. Campos
Although in theory the long-run effect of uncertainty on investment is ambiguous, available econometric evidence widely supports a negative association between aggregate investment and political instability. A shortcoming of this body of evidence is that it has failed to investigate the existence and direction of causality between these two variables. This paper fills this gap by testing for such causal and negative long-run relationship between political instability and investment. We find there is a causal relation going from instability to investment, but it is positive and particularly strong in low-income countries. This finding is robust to various sensitivity checks. [source]


Quality safeguards and regulation of online pharmacies

HEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2004
Benito ArruñadaArticle first published online: 25 JUN 200
Abstract Using econometric evidence, this article confirms that distribution of medicines online is split into two market segments of very diverse quality, and identifies the factors that drive quality and quality assurance in this activity. Unlike fraudulent, ,rogue,' websites, which offer scant guarantees and usually sell just a few medicines without prescription, online pharmacies offering insurance coverage and linked to conventional pharmacies typically sell a whole range of drugs, require third-party medical prescriptions and provide abundant information to patients. It is shown that, where online pharmacies are allowed to act legally, market forces enhance quality, as private insurers require professional standards, and specialized third parties make a business of certifying them. Furthermore, older online pharmacies and those running conventional operations offer higher quality, probably because of reputational investments. Overall, this evidence supports licensing online pharmacies, especially considering that prohibiting them is ineffective against fraudulent sites. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


The HIPC Initiative: True and False Promises

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2001
Daniel Cohen
The paper develops the view that understanding of the HIPC initiative is distorted by a lack of perspective on the ,market value' of the debt which is written down. The appropriate ,market value' takes account of the risk of non-payment: arrears, rescheduling and ,constrained' refinancing of various sorts. Building on econometric evidence that relies on middle income debtors in the 1980s, the paper argues that the initiative is about ten times less generous than face value accounting would suggest. [source]


Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly

JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 6 2001
Professor Alex Maynard
Using both semiparametric and parametric estimation methods, this paper corroborates earlier findings of fractionally integrated behaviour in the forward premium. Two new explanations are also proposed to help reconcile earlier conflicting empirical evidence on the time series properties of the forward premium. Traditional regression approaches used to test the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis are then evaluated, including regression in levels, in returns (Fama's, 1984, regression), and in error-correction format. Interesting statistical and/or interpretive implications are found in all three cases. For example, the predictions of the appropriate nonstandard limit theory are consistent with many of the standard empirical results reported from Fama's regression, including the commonly occurring, yet puzzling negative correlations between spot returns and the forward premium. It is suggested that the principal failure of unbiasedness, may be due instead to the difference in persistence between these two series. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


Localised knowledge spillovers vs. innovative milieux: Knowledge "tacitness" reconsidered

PAPERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2001
Stefano Breschi
Innovative milieux; regional systems; nkowledge spillovers; externalities; industrial districts Abstract. This article provides a critical discussion of the recent econometric literature on "localised knowledge spillovers" and the related notion of tacit knowledge. The basic claim of the article is that the increasing, and more or less automatic reliance of industrial geographers upon such econometric evidence and theoretical concepts to support their work on industrial districts, hi-tech agglomerations and, more broadly, local innovation systems is not well placed and risks to generate conceptual confusion and to distort research agendas. Following some recent advances in the economics of knowledge, the article also suggests that more research efforts should instead be devoted to exploring how knowledge is actually transmitted, among whom, at what distance, and on the basis of which codebooks. [source]


Alimony Rights and Intrahousehold Allocation of Resources: Evidence from Brazil

THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 513 2006
Marcos A. Rangel
Can family policy affect well-being of individuals without altering the resources available to their families? This article examines the extension of alimony rights and obligations to cohabiting couples in Brazil. For women in intact relationships, alimony rights upon dissolution should improve outside options, strengthening their negotiating positions, and increasing their influence over intrahousehold allocation of resources. Robust econometric evidence indicates that more decision power in the hands of women impacts hours worked by female adults and investments in the education of children. This suggests that family policy and models of family decision making should take intrahousehold heterogeneity of preferences into account. [source]