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Ecological Niche Models (ecological + niche_models)
Selected AbstractsSpread and current potential distribution of an alien grass, Eragrostis lehmanniana Nees, in the southwestern USA: comparing historical data and ecological niche modelsDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 5 2006Heather Schussman ABSTRACT The potential distribution of alien species in a novel habitat often is difficult to predict because factors limiting species distributions may be unique to the new locale. Eragrostis lehmanniana is a perennial grass purposely introduced from South Africa to Arizona, USA in the 1930s; by the 1980s, it had doubled its extent. Based on environmental characteristics associated with its introduced and native range, researchers believed that E. lehmanniana had reached the limits of its distribution by the early 1990s. We collected data on E. lehmanniana locations from various land management agencies throughout Arizona and western New Mexico and found new records that indicate that E. lehmanniana has continued to spread. Also, we employed two modelling techniques to determine the current potential distribution and to re-investigate several environmental variables related to distribution. Precipitation and temperature regimes similar to those indicated by past research were the most important variables influencing model output. The potential distribution of E. lehmanniana mapped by both models was 71,843 km2 and covers a large portion of southeastern and central Arizona. Logistic regression (LR) predicted a potential distribution of E. lehmanniana more similar to this species current distribution than GARP based on average temperature, precipitation, and grassland species composition and recorded occurrences. Results of a cross-validation assessment and extrinsic testing showed that the LR model performed as well or better than GARP based on sensitivity, specificity, and kappa indices. [source] Reconstructing the demise of Tethyan plants: climate-driven range dynamics of Laurus since the PlioceneGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2008Francisco Rodríguez-Sánchez ABSTRACT Aim Climate changes are thought to be responsible for the retreat and eventual extinction of subtropical lauroid species that covered much of Europe and North Africa during the Palaeogene and early Neogene; little is known, however, of the spatial and temporal patterns of this demise. Herein we calibrate ecological niche models to assess the climatic requirements of Laurus L. (Lauraceae), an emblematic relic from the Tethyan subtropical flora, subsequently using these models to infer how the range dynamics of Laurus were affected by Plio-Pleistocene climate changes. We also provide predictions of likely range changes resulting from future climatic scenarios. Location The Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands (Canaries, Madeira, Azores). Methods We used a maximum-entropy algorithm (Maxent) to model the relationship between climate and Laurus distribution over time. The models were fitted both to the present and to the middle Pliocene, based on fossil records. We employed climatic reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene (3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and a CO2 -doubling future scenario to project putative species distribution in each period. We validated the model projections with Laurus fossil and present occurrences. Results Laurus preferentially occupied warm and moist areas with low seasonality, showing a marked stasis of its climatic niche. Models fitted to Pliocene conditions successfully predicted the current species distribution. Large suitable areas existed during the Pliocene, which were strongly reduced during the Pleistocene, but humid refugia within the Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands enabled long-term persistence. Future climate conditions are likely to re-open areas suitable for colonization north of the current range. Main conclusions The climatic requirements of Laurus remained virtually unchanged over the last 3 Myr. This marked niche conservatism imposed largely deterministic range dynamics driven by climate conditions. This species's relatively high drought tolerance might account for the survival of Laurus in continental Europe throughout the Quaternary whilst other Lauraceae became extinct. Climatic scenarios for the end of this century would favour an expansion of the species's range towards northern latitudes, while severely limiting southern populations due to increased water stress. [source] Predicting the distribution of Sasquatch in western North America: anything goes with ecological niche modellingJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 9 2009J. D. Lozier Abstract The availability of user-friendly software and publicly available biodiversity databases has led to a rapid increase in the use of ecological niche modelling to predict species distributions. A potential source of error in publicly available data that may affect the accuracy of ecological niche models (ENMs), and one that is difficult to correct for, is incorrect (or incomplete) taxonomy. Here we remind researchers of the need for careful evaluation of database records prior to use in modelling, especially when the presence of cryptic species is suspected or many records are based on indirect evidence. To draw attention to this potential problem, we construct ENMs for the North American Sasquatch (i.e. Bigfoot). Specifically, we use a large database of georeferenced putative sightings and footprints for Sasquatch in western North America, demonstrating how convincing environmentally predicted distributions of a taxon's potential range can be generated from questionable site-occurrence data. We compare the distribution of Bigfoot with an ENM for the black bear, Ursus americanus, and suggest that many sightings of this cryptozoid may be cases of mistaken identity. [source] Modeling distributions of disjunct populations of the Sierra Madre SparrowJOURNAL OF FIELD ORNITHOLOGY, Issue 3 2008Octavio R. Rojas-Soto ABSTRACT Sierra Madre Sparrows (Xenospiza baileyi) are among the least known of all bird species in Mexico. Recent surveys have discovered previously unknown populations and the current known distribution of Sierra Madre Sparrows consists of two populations separated by >800 km. We used available distributional information to develop ecological niche models that (1) predict much of the distribution potential of the species, (2) establish that the broad disjunction separating the two populations has ecological correlates that appear to be important to the distributional of these sparrows, and (3) illustrate the extremely restricted ecological distribution of the species. We used two sets of climatic and topographic variables, with one including all 22 variables available and the second with only six variables that were positively related to quality of distributional models. Although indications of differences between the two sets of populations were found based on the full 22-dimensional environmental dataset, such a highly dimensional analysis is vulnerable to over-fitting; models based on the reduced dataset indicated that the two populations occur in areas with similar ecological conditions. Our models also suggest that southern population of Sierra Madre Sparrows covers most of their potential range in that region. The potential range of the northern population, however, extends beyond known points of occurrence. To clarify the distribution of Sierra Madre Sparrows and evaluate their status and conservation opportunities, detailed searches for additional populations in areas identified by the model are needed. SINOPSIS El gorrión serrano (Xenospiza baileyi) se encuentra entre las especies menos conocidas de México. En un estudio reciente se descubrieron nuevas poblaciones, por lo que la distribución actual de esta ave está conformada por dos meta-poblaciones separadas por más de 800 km. Utilizamos la información disponible sobre su distribución para desarrollar modelos del nicho ecológico que: 1) predigan la mayor parte de la distribución potencial de la especie, 2) establezcan que la amplia separación de las dos poblaciones está correlacionada con condiciones ecológicas que parecen ser importantes para la distribución de la especie y 3) ilustren la extrema restricción ecológica que caracteriza la distribución de la especie. Para generar los modelos, utilizamos dos conjuntos de variables climatológicas y topográficas. Uno con 22 variables y el otro con las seis variables que estaban positivamente correlacionadas con la calidad de los modelos de distribución. Aunque se encontraron indicios de diferencias ecológicas entre las dos poblaciones con base en las 22 variables ambientales estudiadas, el análisis con tantas dimensiones es sensible a un efecto de sobre-ajuste. Los modelos producidos con el subconjunto de seis variables indicaron que las dos poblaciones se encuentran en áreas con condiciones ecológicas similares. Nuestros modelos sugieres que la población del sur ocupa la mayor parte de su área de distribución potencial en la región. No obstante, la distribución potencial de la población del norte es mucho más amplia que su distribución conocida. Es necesario realizar búsquedas minuciosas del gorrión serrano en los sitios identificados por el modelo propuesto para definir adecuadamente su distribución, evaluar su estatus y buscar oportunidades para su conservación. [source] Continental speciation in the tropics: contrasting biogeographic patterns of divergence in the Uroplatus leaf-tailed gecko radiation of MadagascarJOURNAL OF ZOOLOGY, Issue 4 2008C. J. Raxworthy Abstract A fundamental expectation of vicariance biogeography is for contemporary cladogenesis to produce spatial congruence between speciating sympatric clades. The Uroplatus leaf-tailed geckos represent one of most spectacular reptile radiations endemic to the continental island of Madagascar, and thus serve as an excellent group for examining patterns of continental speciation within this large and comparatively isolated tropical system. Here we present the first phylogeny that includes complete taxonomic sampling for the group, and is based on morphology and molecular (mitochondrial and nuclear DNA) data. This study includes all described species, and we also include data for eight new species. We find novel outgroup relationships for Uroplatus and find strongest support for Paroedura as its sister taxon. Uroplatus is estimated to have initially diverged during the mid-Tertiary in Madagascar, and includes two major speciose radiations exhibiting extensive spatial overlap and estimated contemporary periods of speciation. All sister species are either allopatric or parapatric. However, we found no evidence for biogeographic congruence between these sympatric clades, and dispersal events are prevalent in the dispersal,vicariance biogeographic analyses, which we estimate to date to the Miocene. One sister-species pair exhibits isolated distributions that we interpret as biogeographic relicts, and two sister-species pairs have parapatric distributions separated by elevation. Integrating ecological niche models with our phylogenetic results finds both conserved and divergent niches between sister species. We also found substantial intra-specific genetic variation, and for the three most widespread species, poor intra-specific predictive performance for ecological niche models across the latitudinal span of Madagascar. These latter results indicate the potential for intra-specific niche specialization along environmental gradients, and more generally, this study suggests a complex speciation history for this group in Madagascar, which appears to include multiple speciation processes. [source] The discordance of diversification: evolution in the tropical-montane frogs of the Eastern Arc Mountains of TanzaniaMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 18 2010LUCINDA P. LAWSON Abstract Species with similar geographical distribution patterns are often assumed to have a shared biogeographical history, an assumption that can be tested with a combination of molecular, spatial, and environmental data. This study investigates three lineages of Hyperolius frogs with concordant ranges within the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot to determine whether allopatric populations of co-distributed lineages shared a parallel biogeographical response to their shared paleoclimatic histories. The roles of refugial distributions, isolation, and climate cycles in shaping their histories are examined through Hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation, comparative phylogeography, and comparisons of current and past geographical distributions using ecological niche models. Results from these analyses show these three lineages to have independent evolutionary histories, which current spatial configurations of sparsely available habitat (montane wetlands) have moulded into convergent geographical ranges. In spite of independent phylogeographical histories, diversification events are temporally concentrated, implying that past vicariant events were significant at the generic level. This mixture of apparently disparate histories is likely due to quantifiably different patterns of expansion and retreat among species in response to past climate cycles. Combining climate modelling and phylogeographical data can reveal unrecognized complexities in the evolution of co-distributed taxa. [source] Lineage diversification in a widespread species: roles for niche divergence and conservatism in the common kingsnake, Lampropeltis getulaMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 16 2009R. ALEXANDER PYRON Abstract Niche conservatism and niche divergence are both important ecological mechanisms associated with promoting allopatric speciation across geographical barriers. However, the potential for variable responses in widely distributed organisms has not been fully investigated. For allopatric sister lineages, three patterns for the interaction of ecological niche preference and geographical barriers are possible: (i) niche conservatism at a physical barrier; (ii) niche divergence at a physical barrier; and (iii) niche divergence in the absence of a physical barrier. We test for the presence of these patterns in a transcontinentally distributed snake species, the common kingsnake (Lampropeltis getula), to determine the relative frequency of niche conservatism or divergence in a single species complex inhabiting multiple distinct ecoregions. We infer the phylogeographic structure of the kingsnake using a range-wide data set sampled for the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b. We use coalescent simulation methods to test for the presence of structured lineage formation vs. fragmentation of a widespread ancestor. Finally, we use statistical techniques for creating and evaluating ecological niche models to test for conservatism of ecological niche preferences. Significant geographical structure is present in the kingsnake, for which coalescent tests indicate structured population division. Surprisingly, we find evidence for all three patterns of conservatism and divergence. This suggests that ecological niche preferences may be labile on recent phylogenetic timescales, and that lineage formation in widespread species can result from an interaction between inertial tendencies of niche conservatism and natural selection on populations in ecologically divergent habitats. [source] Ecological niche conservatism in North American freshwater fishesBIOLOGICAL JOURNAL OF THE LINNEAN SOCIETY, Issue 2 2009KRISTINA M. MCNYSET There are many hypotheses of relationships, and also of speciation processes, in North American freshwater fishes, although, to date, there have been no direct tests of whether there is evidence of ecological niche conservatism. In the present study, ecological niche modeling is used to look for evidence of ecological niche conservatism in six clades of freshwater fishes: the starheaded topminnows, sand darters, black basses, Notropis rubellus species group, Notropis longirostris species group, and the Hybopsis amblops species group. This is achieved by evaluating the reciprocal predictivity of distributional predictions based on ecological niche models developed for each individual taxon in a clade under the assumption that high reciprical predictivity between sister species can be taken as evidence of niche conservatism. Omission percentages, total and average commission, and the area under the curve in a receiver operating characteristic analysis, where calculated, are used to evaluate predictive ability. Occurrence data for each species were subset into a training and independent validation data set where possible. Across all clades and species, models predicted the validation data for a given species well. Ecological niche conservatism was found generally across the starheaded topminnows, the sand darters, and the N. longirostris species group. There was some inter-predictivity within the N. rubellus group, but almost no inter-predictivity within the black basses, indicating a lack of conservatism. These results demonstrate that ecological niches generally act as stable constraints on freshwater fish distributions in North America. © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 96, 282,295. [source] | ||||||||||