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Early Warning System (early + warning_system)
Selected AbstractsRecent developments in operational flood forecasting in England, Wales and ScotlandMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 1 2009Micha Werner Abstract This paper discusses developments in the last five to six years in the provision of operational flood forecasting in England, Wales, and Scotland. Before the formation of the Environment Agency (EA) in England and Wales and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), flood forecasting capabilities were fragmented. Just over a decade ago both organisations received governmental mandates for the provision of flood forecasting and warning nationally, and have as a result in recent years established systems providing national coverage: the National Flood Forecasting System, and Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) Scotland. These have facilitated a rapid expansion of catchments for which forecasts are provided, and the common framework used has enabled a more rapid introduction of scientific advances in forecasting techniques. This paper gives an overview of some of these recent developments, as well as providing an outlook to further developments to be undertaken in the near future. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The underutilization of street markets as a source of food security indicators in Famine Early Warning Systems: a case study of EthiopiaDISASTERS, Issue 3 2008Michèle Companion Famine Early Warning Systems (EWS) are reliant on data aggregated from multiple sources. Consequently, they are often insensitive to localized changes in food security status, leading to delayed response or interventions. While price and infrastructural data are often gathered, this case study suggests that local street markets and vendor knowledge are underutilized. Few efforts have been made to monitor systematically the street markets as an indicator of local stressors. Findings from Ethiopia show that knowledge generated by expanding food security indicators in this sector can be used in combination with EWS to facilitate earlier intervention in, or to monitor more effectively, on-going humanitarian crises. Indicators developed from this study are accurate, cost effective, and sensitive to local climatic and food stressors. [source] Realistic Evaluation of Early Warning Systems and the Acute Life-threatening Events , Recognition and Treatment training course for early recognition and management of deteriorating ward-based patients: research protocolJOURNAL OF ADVANCED NURSING, Issue 4 2010Jennifer McGaughey mcgaughey j., blackwood b., o'halloran p., trinder t.j. & porter s. (2010) Realistic Evaluation of Early Warning Systems and the Acute Life-threatening Events , Recognition and Treatment training course for early recognition and management of deteriorating ward-based patients: research protocol. Journal of Advanced Nursing66(4), 923,932. Abstract Title.,Realistic Evaluation of Early Warning Systems and the Acute Life-threatening Events , Recognition and Treatment training course for early recognition and management of deteriorating ward-based patients: research protocol. Aim., This paper is a description of a study protocol designed to evaluate the factors that enable or constrain the delivery and sustainability of Early Warning Systems and the Acute Life-threatening Events , Recognition and Treatment training course in practice. Background., Rapid response system initiatives have been introduced to try to improve early detection and treatment of patients who deteriorate on general hospital wards. However, recent systematic reviews of the effectiveness of these initiatives show no effect on patient outcomes. Systematic reviews and professional consensus recommend that future research should focus on a broader range of process and outcome measures which consider the social, behavioural and organizational factors that had an impact on the delivery of these initiatives. Design., The design is a multiple case study on four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland that have implemented Early Warning Systems and Acute Life-threatening Events , Recognition and Treatment training. Data will be collected from key stakeholders using individual and focus group interviews, non-participant observation, Acute Life-threatening Events , Recognition and Treatment training records and audit of patients' observation charts and medical notes. Realistic Evaluation of the data will enable the development and refinement of theories to explain which mechanisms work in a particular context to achieve desired outcomes. Discussion., This study will produce important information that will contribute to knowledge of the organizational processes that have an impact on the delivery of initiatives to identify, respond and manage acutely ill patients in hospital. [source] Monitoring and Forecasting Currency CrisesJOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, Issue 2-3 2008ATSUSHI INOUE currency crises; forecasting; leading indicators; Diffusion Index; exchange rates Can we improve forecasts of currency crises by using a large number of predictors? Which predictors should we use? This paper evaluates the performance of traditional leading indicators and a new Diffusion Index (DI) method as Early Warning Systems to monitor the risk and forecast the likelihood of the recent currency crises in East Asia. We find that the DI performs quite well in real time. For most countries, the forecasted probabilities of a crisis increase substantially around the actual time of the crisis. The economic variables that help in forecasting future crises are output growth, interest rates and money growth. [source] Setting up an early warning system for epidemic-prone diseases in Darfur: a participative approachDISASTERS, Issue 4 2005Augusto Pinto Abstract In April,May 2004, the World Health Organization (WHO) implemented, with local authorities, United Nations (UN) agencies and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), an early warning system (EWS) in Darfur, West Sudan, for internally displaced persons (IDPs). The number of consultations and deaths per week for 12 health events is recorded for two age groups (less than five years and five years and above). Thresholds are used to detect potential outbreaks. Ten weeks after the introduction of the system, NGOs were covering 54 camps, and 924,281 people (IDPs and the host population). Of these 54 camps, 41 (76%) were reporting regularly under the EWS. Between 22 May and 30 July, 179,795 consultations were reported: 18.7% for acute respiratory infections; 15% for malaria; 8.4% for bloody diarrhoea; and 1% for severe acute malnutrition. The EWS is useful for detecting outbreaks and monitoring the number of consultations required to trigger actions, but not for estimating mortality. [source] An early warning system for financial crisis using a stock market instability indexEXPERT SYSTEMS, Issue 3 2009Dong Ha Kim Abstract: This paper proposes to utilize a stock market instability index (SMII) to develop an early warning system for financial crisis. The system focuses on measuring the differences between the current market conditions and the conditions of the past when the market was stable. Technically the system evaluates the current time series against the past stable time series modelled by an asymptotic stationary autoregressive model via artificial neural networks. Advantageously accessible to extensive resources, the system turns out better results than the conventional system which detects similarities between the conditions of the current market and the conditions of previous markets that were in crisis. Therefore, it should be considered as a more advanced tool to prevent financial crises than the conventional one. As an empirical example, an SMII for the Korean stock market is developed in order to demonstrate its potential usefulness as an early warning system. [source] An early warning system for detection of financial crisis using financial market volatilityEXPERT SYSTEMS, Issue 2 2006Kyong Joo Oh Abstract: This study proposes an early warning system (EWS) for detection of financial crisis with a daily financial condition indicator (DFCI) designed to monitor the financial markets and provide warning signals. The proposed EWS differs from other commonly used EWSs in two aspects: (i) it is based on dynamic daily movements of the financial markets; and (ii) it is established as a pattern classifier, which identifies predefined unstable states in terms of financial market volatility. Indeed it issues warning signals on a daily basis by judging whether the financial market has entered a predefined unstable state or not. The major strength of a DFCI is that it can issue timely warning signals while other conventional EWSs must wait for the next round input of monthly or quarterly information. Construction of a DFCI consists of two steps where machine learning algorithms are expected to play a significant role, i.e. (i) establishing sub-DFCIs on various daily financial variables by an artificial neural network, and (ii) integrating the sub-DFCIs into an integrated DFCI by a genetic algorithm. The DFCI for the Korean financial market is built as an empirical case study. [source] Do indicators of financial crises work?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2003An evaluation of an early warning system Abstract The object of this paper is to develop an operational early warning system (EWS) that can detect financial crises. To achieve this goal the paper analyses and extends the early warning system developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) that is based on the ,signal' approach. This system monitors several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds (or falls below) a threshold, then it is said to issue a ,signal' that a currency crisis may occur within a given period. The model does a fairly good job of anticipating some of the crises in 1997/1998, but several weaknesses to the approach are identified. The paper also evaluates how this system can be applied to an individual country. On balance, the results in this paper are mixed, but the results suggest that an early warning system should be thought of as a useful diagnostic tool. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Teretrius nigrescens against larger grain borer Prostephanus truncatus in African maize stores: biological control at work?JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2003Niels Holst Summary 1Following the accidental introduction of the bostrichid beetle Prostephanus truncatus into East and West Africa around 1980, a classical biological control campaign was launched in 1991; the histerid beetle Teretrius nigrescens was released as a biocontrol agent to prevent the destructive outbreak of the pest in small-farm maize stores. However, while the campaign has been ongoing, so has discussion in the scientific community about the merits of this campaign and its chances of success. 2From published and unpublished data from experimental maize stores in Benin, West Africa, we derived statistical models describing the in-store insect population dynamics, and were thus able to point out significant biological interactions and to explain the observed lack of biological control. 3We found that (i) T. nigrescens reduced significantly the population growth rate of both P. truncatus and the non-target pest, the weevil Sitophilus zeamais; (ii) T. nigrescens displayed a positive numerical response to both prey species, P. truncatus and S. zeamais; (iii) asymmetric competition existed between the two prey species, S. zeamais was negatively affected by P. truncatus but not vice versa; (iv) T. nigrescens and S. zeamais displayed negative intraspecific density-dependence whereas P. truncatus was resource-limited. 4We conclude that classical biological control with T. nigrescens is not likely to become successful, mainly due to the predator's intraspecific density-dependence and its low population growth rate compared with its prey. We recommend that further research on P. truncatus integrated pest management takes into account the farmer as an active agent managing the store. 5Synthesis and applications. When biocontrol does not result in satisfactory pest control, as in the case of P. truncatus, farmers should learn how to scout for the pest and take action when a need is detected. In areas where the pest is usually only a minor problem, the agricultural extension service should consider setting up a simple early warning system for their region. When attempts at classical biological control remain unsuccessful, as in the case of P. truncatus now for 10 years, policy-makers should prioritize training of extension service and farmers in integrated pest management techniques (e.g. need-based use of insecticides) as a necessary supplement to biocontrol. [source] Toward an Implantable Wireless Cardiac Monitoring Platform Integrated with an FDA-Approved Cardiovascular StentJOURNAL OF INTERVENTIONAL CARDIOLOGY, Issue 5 2009ERIC Y. CHOW Ph.D. Continuous monitoring of blood pressure from a minimally invasive device in the pulmonary artery can serve as a diagnostic and early warning system for cardiac health. The foremost challenge in such a device is the wireless transfer of data and power from within the blood vessel to an external device while maintaining unrestricted flow through the artery. We present a miniaturized system, which is attached to the outer surface of a regular or drug-eluting FDA-approved stent. When expanded, the stent maintains a patent vessel lumen while allowing contact between the electronic sensors and the blood supply. The stent-based antenna can be used for both wireless telemetry and power transfer for the implanted electronics. Using the stent platform as both a radiating antenna and a structural support allows us to take advantage of an FDA-approved device whose safety and surgical procedure are well established. The electronics package has been reduced to an area of less than 1 mm2, with a thickness under 300 ,m. A minimally invasive implantation procedure allows the delivery of the stent-based implant in nearly any major vessel of the body. This article describes an initial prototype with two stents configured as a single dipole, a 2.4-GHz transmitter microchip, and a battery, and validates transcutaneous transmission through ex vivo and in vivo porcine studies. The results demonstrate the feasibility of a stent-based wireless platform for continuous monitoring of blood pressure. [source] rRNA PROBES FOR IDENTIFICATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF MARINE PHYTOPLANKTON: THEIR POTENTIAL APPLICATION FOR DNA MICROCHIPSJOURNAL OF PHYCOLOGY, Issue 2001Article first published online: 24 SEP 200 Groben R., Lange, M. & Medlin, L. K. Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany A fast and reliable identification of nano- and picoplankton by light microscopy is often difficult because of the lack of usable morphological characteristics, whereas electron microscopy and biochemical methods are very time consuming. Identification of toxic algae also requires a great deal of taxonomic experrtise so that false positives are not recorded. One solution is to use taxon specific rRNA probes. For this purpose we designed probes for phytoplankton taxa, including toxic algae. These probes were either labelled with Digoxigenin (DIG) and used in DNA dot blot experiments, or labelled with fluorochromes and used in whole-cell hybridisations with fluorescence microscopy or flow cytometric detection. Specific probes could be used over a broad taxonomic range from higher groups (i.e. the class of dinoflagellates) to species level (i.e. Prorocentrum lima). These probes were be used in the EU MAST project AIMS for the development of an automated identification system for marine phytoplankton in combination with flow cytometry and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in the EU MAST DETAL and in the German national project (TEPS) for the development of an early warning system for harmful algal blooms. Results using Digoxigenin (DIG)-labelled probes on picoplankton samples taken from several water bodies indicate that hierarchial re-probing of spotted samples can be achieved and this suggests that probes can be adapted to DNA microchips. Preliminary field results for a hand-held DNA microchip reader are presented. This work was supported by the German BMBF TEPS 03F0161 and the EU AIMS MAS3-CT97-0080 and EU DETAL Q5RS-2000-30778 projects. [source] NORTH ATLANTIC RIGHT WHALE DISTRIBUTION IN RELATION TO SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CALVING GROUNDSMARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, Issue 2 2006Chérie A. Keller Abstract Standardized aerial surveys were used to document the winter (December,March) distribution of North Atlantic right whales in their calving area off the coasts of Georgia and northeastern Florida (1991,1998). Survey data were collected within four survey zones in and adjacent to federally designated critical habitat. These data, including whale-sighting locations and sampling effort, were used to describe right whale distribution in relation to sea-surface temperature (SST) from satellite-derived images. Locations where whales were sighted (n= 609) had an overall mean SST of 14.3°C ± 2.1° (range 8°,22°C). Data from two survey zones having sufficient data (including the "early warning system" (EWS) zone and the Florida nearshore) were pooled by season and stratified by month to investigate changes in monthly ambient SST and fine-scale distribution patterns of right whales in relation to SST within spatially explicit search areas. Using Monte Carlo techniques, SSTs and latitudes (means and standard deviations) of locations where whales were sighted were compared to a sampling distribution of each variable derived from daily-search areas. Overall, results support a nonrandom distribution of right whales in relation to SST: during resident months (January and February), whales exhibited low variability in observed SST and a suggested southward shift in whale distribution toward warmer SSTs in the EWS zone; while in the relatively warmer and southernmost survey zone (Florida nearshore), right whales were concentrated in the northern, cooler portion. Our results support that warm Gulf Stream waters, generally found south and east of delineated critical habitat, represent a thermal limit for right whales and play an important role in their distribution within the calving grounds. These results affirm the inclusion of SST in a multivariate predictive model for right whale distribution in their southeastern habitat. [source] Elektrochemisches Rauschen bei der KorrosionMATERIALS AND CORROSION/WERKSTOFFE UND KORROSION, Issue 10 2004J. Göllner Abstract Ausgehend von den Ursachen, den Quellen des elektrochemischen Rauschens, wird an mehreren Beispielen die gute Korrelation zwischen verschiedenen Systemparametern und den Rauscherscheinungen gezeigt. Bei Beachtung einiger Randbedingungen bieten sich sehr gute Möglichkeiten, das Rauschen für eine Art Frühwarnsystem bei der Anlagenüberwachung zu nutzen. Es wird aber auch gezeigt, dass das elektrochemische Rauschen, wie die Korrosion überhaupt, eine äußerst komplexe Erscheinung ist und dass das Nichtbeachten bestimmter Einflüsse und Parameter zu dramatischen Fehleinschätzungen führen kann. Electrochemical noise from corrosion On the basis of the causes, the sources of the electrochemical noise, by several examples the good correlation between different system parameters and the noise behaviour is shown. With attention of some factors very good possibilities are offered of using the noise for a kind of an early warning system during the process monitoring. It is also shown, that electrochemical noise as well as the corrosion at all is of complex nature. Ignoring certain influences and parameters can lead to dramatic false estimates. [source] Reanalysis and reforecast of three major European storms of the twentieth century using the ECMWF forecasting system.METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 2 2005Part II: Ensemble forecasts In Part II of this study the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is used to study the probabilistic predictability of three major European storms of the twentieth century. The storms considered are the Dutch storm of 1 February 1953, the Hamburg storm of 17 February 1962, and the British/French storm of October 1987 (Great October storm). Common to all these storms is their severity that caused large loss of life and widespread damage. In Part I of this study it has been found that deterministic predictability of the Dutch and Hamburg storms amount to 48 and 84 hours, respectively. Here, it is shown that the ensemble forecasts supplement the deterministic forecasts. The large number of members in the 48 and 84 hour ensemble forecasts of the Dutch and Hamburg storms, respectively, suggest that at this forecast range and for these storms the sensitivity of the forecasts to analysis and model uncertainties is rather small. From these results, therefore, it is argued that reliable warnings (i.e. low probability for the occurrence of a forecast failure) for the Dutch and Hamburg storms could have been issued 48 and 84 hours, respectively, in advance, had the current ECMWF EPS been available. For the Great October storm it has been found in Part I of this study that short-range and medium-range forecasts of the intensity and track of the storm were very skilful with a high-resolution model of the ECWMF model. The actual timing of the storm, however, was difficult to predict. Here, it is shown that the EPS is capable of predicting large forecast uncertainties associated with the timing of the Great October storm up to 4 days in advance. It is argued that reliable warnings could have been issued at least 96 hours in advance had the ECMWF EPS been available. From the results presented in this study it is concluded that an Ensemble Prediction System is an important component of every early warning system for it allows an a priori quantification of the probability of the occurrence of severe wind storms. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Early warning system scores and response times: an auditNURSING IN CRITICAL CARE, Issue 4 2003Barbara A Day Summary ,,In response to NHS reforms within critical care, the surgical directorate of the Southern Derbyshire Acute Hospitals NHS Trust developed and introduced a modified early warning system (DMEWS) ,,Anecdotal evidence from nursing staff indicated that response times by doctors, when triggered by use of the DMEWS, were outside the established timescale ,,An audit was undertaken to determine the response times to calls for assistance triggered by use of the DMEWS and to identify any disparity between response times ,,The audit confirmed that whilst DMEWS triggered the nurses to initiate action for immediate treatment, response by members of the surgical teams was below the agreed standards ,,Further studies are planned to indicate whether longer response times have an adverse effect on patient welfare or outcome [source] Continuous non-invasive end-tidal CO2 monitoring in pediatric inpatients with diabetic ketoacidosisPEDIATRIC DIABETES, Issue 4 2006Michael SD Agus Introduction:, Pediatric inpatients with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) are routinely subjected to frequent blood draws in order to closely monitor degree of acidosis and response to therapy. The typical level of acidosis monitoring is less than ideal, however, because of the high cost and invasiveness of frequent blood labs. Previous studies have validated end-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) monitoring in the emergency department (ED) for varying periods of time. We extend these findings to the inpatient portion of the hospitalization during which the majority of blood tests are sent. Methods:, All patients admitted to an intermediate care unit in (InCU) a large children's hospital were fitted with an appropriately sized oral/nasal cannula capable of sensing EtCO2. Laboratory studies were obtained according to hospital clinical practice guidelines. In a retrospective analysis, EtCO2 values were correlated with serum total CO2 (stCO2), venous pH (vpH), venous pCO2 (vpCO2), and calculated bicarbonate from venous blood gas (vHCO3,). Results:, A total of 78 consecutive episodes of DKA in 72 patients aged 1,21 yr were monitored for 3,38 h with both capnography and laboratory testing, producing 334 comparisons. Initial values were as follows, reported as median (range): stCO2, 11 (4,22) mmol/L; vpH, 7.281 (6.998,7.441); vpCO2, 28.85 (9.3,43.3) mmHg; and vHCO3,, 14 (3,25) mmol/L. EtCO2 was correlated well with stCO2 (r = 0.84, p < 0.001), vHCO3, (r = 0.84, p < 0.001), and vpCO2 (r = 0.79, p < 0.001). Conclusions:, These data support the findings of previous studies limited to ED populations and suggest that non-invasive EtCO2 monitoring is a valuable and reliable tool to continuously follow acidosis in the setting of the acutely ill pediatric patient with DKA. Continuous EtCO2 monitoring offers the practitioner an early warning system for unexpected changes in acidosis that augments the utility of intermittent blood gas determinations. [source] Gas chromatography,mass spectrometry analyses of volatile organic compounds from potato tubers inoculated with Phytophthora infestans or Fusarium coeruleumPLANT PATHOLOGY, Issue 4 2001B. P. J. De Lacy Costello Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) collected from potato tubers inoculated with Phytophthora infestans (late blight), Fusarium coeruleum (dry rot) or sterilized distilled water (as a control) were analysed using gas chromatography,mass spectrometry (GC,MS) and gas chromatography,flame ionization detection (GC,FID). A total of 52 volatiles were identified by GC,MS in the headspaces above P. infestans- and F. coeruleum- inoculated tubers after incubation for 42 days in the dark at 10°C. Of these VOCs, the six most abundant were common to both pathogens. These were benzothiazole (highest abundance), 2-ethyl-1-hexanol (second highest abundance), and at approximately equal third abundance, hexanal, 2-methylpropanoic acid-2,2-dimethyl-1-(2-hydroxy-1-methylethyl)-propyl ester, 2-methylpropanoic acid-3-hydroxy-2,4,4-trimethyl-pentyl ester and phenol. In addition, styrene also occurred at approximately equal third abundance in the headspace of F. coeruleum- inoculated tubers, but at lower abundance in the headspace of P. infestans- inoculated tubers. Some VOCs were specific to each pathogen. Butanal, 3-methylbutanal, undecane and verbenone were found at low levels only in the headspace of tubers inoculated with P. infestans, while 2-pentylfuran and copaene were found only in the headspace of tubers inoculated with F. coeruleum. Additionally GC,FID analysis identified ethanol and 2-propanol in the liquid exudate from both P. infestans - and F. coeruleum -inoculated tubers after incubation for 35 days, and in the headspace after incubation for 42 days. These data provide key information for developing a sensor-based early warning system for the detection of postharvest diseases in stored potato tubers. [source] SPC with Applications to Churn ManagementQUALITY AND RELIABILITY ENGINEERING INTERNATIONAL, Issue 5 2004Magnus Pettersson Abstract The process of a customer replacing one provider of a service or merchandise for another is called a churn. In competitive business environments, such as telecommunications, insurance, banking, hotels and mail order, customers can easily leave one company,and they really do. Since the cost of recruiting new customers is higher than the cost of retaining them, it is crucial for companies in these trades to monitor their customer population in order to keep churn rates low. Statistical process control (SPC) methods are developed to cover the needs of monitoring industrial processes and intensive care patients. They are based on procedures where data are analysed automatically and on-line. When results indicate that the process is out of control, an alarm alerts an engineer or physician, who can take corrective action in order to get the process back under control. This paper discusses the use of SPC methods as a means to enhance precision in detecting increasing churn rates. We show that SPC methods can give market analysts a powerful tool for tracking customer movements and churn. An early warning system (EWS), based on the same ideas as used in process industries, will give foresight and a longer time to react against churn, hence providing an advantage over competitors. In the examples discussed in this paper we monitor usage in order to detect decreasing volumes that indicate churn. Data were extracted from internal databases, and analysed and reported on-line. We conclude that the potential improvement by using SPC methods in churn management is high. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A climate-based early warning system to predict outbreaks of Ross River virus disease in the Broome region of Western AustraliaAUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Issue 1 2010Lachlan McIver No abstract is available for this article. [source] Environmental and entomological factors determining Ross River virus activity in the River Murray Valley of South AustraliaAUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Issue 3 2009Craig R. Williams Abstract Objectives: 1) To determine whether environmental and mosquito abundance variables could be used to explain fluctuations in the activity of Ross River (RR) virus, in the River Murray Valley of South Australia (SA). 2) To develop models at the local government spatial scale to understand local variability in RR activity factors. Method: Notification data of RR virus positive serology, mosquito surveillance, meteorological and river height data were analysed for the period 1999 to 2006. Stepwise multiple regression was used to determine significant environmental factors and to create descriptive models. Results: The three models developed for different regions of the Valley explained significant amounts of variation in notification rates (R2 0.77 , 0.98). Regional variation in the models was observed, with differences in significant mosquito species evident. Rainfall was a significant predictor of RR virus activity in two of the models, while the height of the River Murray was significant in the third. An overall model for the entire SA section of the Valley contained only time-lagged mosquito abundance variables (R2 0.52). Conclusion: Although rainfall, river height and mosquito abundance are significant factors in determining RR virus activity, there are regional differences in this relationship. Implications: The regional variability of RR virus activity drivers has been defined, and has implications for the forecasting of future activity in this part of SA. The models provided here can provide the foundation for an effective RR virus early warning system, but only if criteria for action, lines of responsibility and the resources required have been determined. [source] Seroconversion to avian influenza virus in free-range chickens in the Riverland region of VictoriaAUSTRALIAN VETERINARY JOURNAL, Issue 8 2010IJ East Background Since 2005, H5N1 avian influenza (AI) has spread from South-East Asia to over 60 different countries, resulting in the direct death or slaughter of over 250,000,000 poultry. Migratory waterfowl have been implicated in this spread and in Australia there have been numerous isolations of low-pathogenicity AI virus from wild waterfowl and shorebirds. The Department of Human Services, Victoria maintains 10 sentinel free-range chicken flocks in the Riverland at locations that are populated by large numbers of waterfowl known to carry a range of strains of AI. Objective This study analysed historical samples collected in 1991,94 and 2003,06 from the library of serum samples for antibodies against AI to assess the potential for transfer of AI virus from wild waterfowl to free-range poultry. Results Of the 2000 serum samples analysed, 17 were positive for antibodies against AI and 87 were suspect, with a clustering of positive and suspect results in the years 1994, 2003 and 2004. There was also a clustering of positive samples at the site of the Barmah flock. Nine sequential sets of sera from individual chickens with at least one positive result were identified. Analysis of these sequential sets showed that infection was acquired on site but that the antibody response to AI infection was short-lived and was no longer detectable at 8 weeks after the positive finding. Conclusion The surveillance of sentinel chickens is a potential avenue for monitoring the circulation of AI viruses and could provide an early warning system for the commercial poultry industries. [source] Expected loss-based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systemsEARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS, Issue 9 2007Iunio Iervolino Abstract Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real-time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real-time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real-time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P -waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance-based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non-structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm-issuance and non-issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The Effects of Weather and Climate on the Seasonality of Influenza: What We Know and What We Need to KnowGEOGRAPHY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 7 2010Christopher Fuhrmann Influenza is one of the most deadly of all airborne and upper-respiratory infections. On average, 22,000 deaths and over 3 million hospitalizations in USA are attributed to influenza each year. The distinct seasonality of influenza suggests a climate connection, but the wide range of methodologies used to explore this connection makes it difficult to elucidate a definitive relationship. Much of what is known about the effects of weather and climate on the seasonality of influenza stems from research conducted by members of the public health and medical communities, with few contributions from other physical and social science fields. Most of these studies are either based on experiments conducted under controlled laboratory conditions or on the broad-scale patterns of morbidity and mortality and their relationship to large-scale climate signals. What remains largely unknown is the suitability of these results for the development of early warning systems and for determining the dynamics of viral transmission on multiple space and time scales. [source] Assessing early warning signals of currency crises: a fuzzy clustering approachINTELLIGENT SYSTEMS IN ACCOUNTING, FINANCE & MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2006Shuhua Liu In the period of 1990s alone, four waves of financial crises occurred around the world. The repeated occurrence of financial crises stimulated a large number of theoretical and empirical studies on the phenomena, in particular studies on the determinants of or early warning signals of financial crises. Nonetheless, the different studies of early warning systems have achieved mixed results and there remains much room for further investigation. Since, so far, the empirical studies have focused on conventional economic modelling methods such as simplified probabilistic models and regression models, in this study we examine whether new insights can be gained from the application of the fuzzy clustering method. The theories of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic offer us the means to deal with uncertainties inherent in a wide variety of tasks, especially when the uncertainty is not the result of randomness but the result of unknown factors and relationships that are difficult to explain. They also provide us with the instruments to treat vague and imprecise linguistic values and to model nonlinear relationships. This paper presents empirical results from analysing the Finnish currency crisis in 1992 using the fuzzy C-means clustering method. We first provide the relevant background knowledge and introduce the fuzzy clustering method. We then show how the use of fuzzy C-means method can help us to identify the critical levels of important economic indicators for predicting of financial crises. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market currency crises: an early warning systems approach,INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2007Steven B. Kamin Abstract In this paper, a modified ,early warning system' (EWS) approach is developed to identify the roles of domestic and external factors in emerging market crises. Several probit models of currency crises were estimated for 26 emerging market countries. These models were used to identify the separate contributions to the probabilities of crisis of domestic and external variables. We found that, relative to domestic factors, adverse external shocks and large external imbalances contributed little to the average estimated probability of crisis in emerging market countries, but accounted for much more of the spikes in the probability of crisis estimated to occur during actual crisis years. We interpret these results to suggest that while, on average over time, domestic factors have tended to contribute to much of the underlying vulnerability of emerging market countries, adverse swings in external factors may have been important in pushing economies ,over the edge' and into currency crisis. In consequence, the costs of giving up exchange rate flexibility through adoption of strongly fixed exchange rate regimes,e.g. currency boards or dollarization,may be quite high for some countries. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Information use and early warning effectiveness: Perspectives and prospectsJOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Issue 5 2009Chun Wei Choo This introductory article explores how the use of information affects the effectiveness of early warning systems. By effectiveness, we refer to the capacity of the system to detect and decide on the existence of a threat. There are two aspects to effectiveness: (a) being able to see the evidence that is indicative of a threat and (b) making the decision, based on the weight of the evidence, to warn that the threat exists. In early warning, information use is encumbered by cues that are fallible and equivocal. Cues that are true indicators of a threat are obscured in a cloud of events generated by chance. Moreover, policy makers face the difficult decision of whether to issue a warning based on the information received. Because the information is rarely complete or conclusive, such decisions have to consider the consequences of failing to warn or giving a false warning. We draw on sociocognitive theories of perception and judgment to analyze these two aspects of early warning: detection accuracy (How well does perception correspond to reality?) and decision sensitivity (How much evidence is needed to activate warning?) Using cognitive continuum theory, we examine how detection accuracy depends on the fit between the information needs profile of the threat and the information use environment of the warning system. Applying signal detection theory, we investigate how decision sensitivity depends on the assessment and balancing of the risks of misses and false alarms inherent in all early warning decision making. [source] Temperature-related duration of aquatic stages of the Afrotropical malaria vector mosquito Anopheles gambiae in the laboratoryMEDICAL AND VETERINARY ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 2 2004M. N. Bayoh Abstract., Vector abundance is an important factor governing disease risk and is often employed when modelling disease transmission. The longevity of the aquatic stages of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) dictates the rate of production of adults and hence the intensity of disease transmission. We examined how temperature influences the survival of larval stages (larvae and pupae) of Anopheles gambiae Giles sensu stricto and subsequent adult production of this most efficient malaria vector. Groups of 30 mosquitoes were reared at constant temperatures (from 10 to 40 °C) from the first instar and observed until death or metamorphosis of the last individual. Larvae developed into adults at temperatures ranging from 16 to 34 °C. Larval survival was shortest (< 7 days) at 10,12 °C and 38,40 °C, and longest (> 30 days) at 14,20 °C. Within the temperature range at which adults were produced, larval mortality was highest at the upper range 30,32 °C, with death (rather than adult emergence) representing over 70% of the terminal events. The optimal survival temperatures were lower than the temperatures at which development was quickest, suggesting a critical relationship between temperature and the life cycle of the insect. These data provide fundamental information about An. gambiae s.s. adult productivity at different temperatures, which may facilitate the construction of process-based models of malaria risk in Africa and the development of early warning systems for epidemics. [source] Application of GIS for processing and establishing the correlation between weather radar reflectivity and precipitation dataMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 1 2005Y. Gorokhovich Correlation between weather radar reflectivity and precipitation data collected by rain gauges allows empirical formulae to be obtained that can be used to create continuous rainfall surfaces from discrete data. Such surfaces are useful in distributed hydrologic modelling and early warning systems in flood management. Because of the spatial relationship between rain gauge locations and radar coverage area, GIS provides the basis for data analysis and manipulation. A database of 82 radar stations and more than 1500 rain gauges in continental USA was compiled and used for the continuous downloading of radar images and rain data. Image sequences corresponding to rain events were extracted for two randomly selected radar stations in South and North Carolina. Rainfall data from multiple gauges within the radar zone of 124 nautical miles (nm) (,230 km) were extracted and combined with corresponding reflectivity values for each time interval of the selected rain event. Data were normalised to one-hour intervals and then statistical analysis was applied to study the potential correlation. Results of regression analysis showed a significant correlation between rain gauge data and radar reflectivity values and allowed derivation of empirical formulae. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] The need for integration of drought monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub-Saharan AfricaNATURAL RESOURCES FORUM, Issue 4 2008Tsegaye Tadesse Abstract Reducing the impact of drought and famine remains a challenge in sub-Saharan Africa despite ongoing drought relief assistance in recent decades. This is because drought and famine are primarily addressed through a crisis management approach when a disaster occurs, rather than stressing preparedness and risk management. Moreover, drought planning and food security efforts have been hampered by a lack of integrated drought monitoring tools, inadequate early warning systems (EWS), and insufficient information flow within and between levels of government in many sub-Saharan countries. The integration of existing drought monitoring tools for sub-Saharan Africa is essential for improving food security systems to reduce the impacts of drought and famine on society in this region. A proactive approach emphasizing integration requires the collective use of multiple tools, which can be used to detect trends in food availability and provide early indicators at local, national, and regional scales on the likely occurrence of food crises. In addition, improving the ability to monitor and disseminate critical drought-related information using available modern technologies (e.g., satellites, computers, and modern communication techniques) may help trigger timely and appropriate preventive responses and, ultimately, contribute to food security and sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. [source] Combating drought through preparednessNATURAL RESOURCES FORUM, Issue 4 2002Donald A. Wilhite Drought is a complex, slow,onset phenomenon that affects more people than any other natural hazard and results in serious economic, social, and environmental impacts. Although drought affects virtually all climatic regimes and has significant consequences in both developed and developing countries, its impacts are especially serious in developing countries where dryland agriculture predominates. The impacts of drought are often an indicator of unsustainable land and water management practices, and drought assistance or relief provided by governments and donors encourages land managers and others to continue these practices. This often results in a greater dependence on government and a decline in self,reliance. Moving from crisis to risk management will require the adoption of a new paradigm for land managers, governments, international and regional development organizations, and non,governmental organizations. This approach emphasizes preparedness, mitigation, and improved early warning systems (EWS) over emergency response and assistance measures. Article 10 of the Convention to Combat Desertification states that national action programmes should be established to identify the factors contributing to desertification and practical measures necessary to combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought. In the past 10 years, there has been considerable recognition by governments of the need to develop drought preparedness plans and policies to reduce the impacts of drought. Unfortunately, progress in drought preparedness during the last decade has been slow because most nations lack the institutional capacity and human and financial resources necessary to develop comprehensive drought plans and policies. Recent commitments by governments and international organizations and new drought monitoring technologies and planning and mitigation methodologies are cause for optimism. The challenge is the implementation of these new technologies and methodologies. It is critical for governments that possess this experience to share it with others through regional and global networks. One way to accomplish this goal is to create a network of regional networks on drought preparedness to expedite the adoption of drought preparedness tools to lessen the hardships associated with severe and extended drought episodes. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||