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Dollars
Kinds of Dollars Terms modified by Dollars Selected AbstractsTORT DECISIONS AND CAMPAIGN DOLLARSPOLITICS & POLICY, Issue 2 2000Eric N. Waltenburg There has recently been growing concern over the massive infusion of special interest dollars in state judicial elections. Commentators worry that these contributions may undermine the public's confidence in the operation and impartiality of the judicial system, or worse, "buy" the decision of the successful judicial candidate. The purpose of this analysis is to determine the extent to which there is good cause to worry. It examines contribution patterns for, and the decisional behavior of, the state supreme court justices on the Alabama, Kentucky, and Ohio courts who have had electoral contests in the 1990s. Results indicate that worries over the American bench being "for sale" have some traction. Under electoral pressures, the justices do appear to position themselves to appeal more to their contributors. This effect is not enduring, however. Whatever relationships exist between contributions to judicial candidates and their decisional behavior are short-term. Following his or her election, a justice's decision-making shows no signs of being influenced by interest group contributions. [source] Modeling and Forecasting Realized VolatilityECONOMETRICA, Issue 2 2003Torben G. Andersen We provide a framework for integration of high,frequency intraday data into the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of daily and lower frequency return volatilities and return distributions. Building on the theory of continuous,time arbitrage,free price processes and the theory of quadratic variation, we develop formal links between realized volatility and the conditional covariance matrix. Next, using continuously recorded observations for the Deutschemark/Dollar and Yen/Dollar spot exchange rates, we find that forecasts from a simple long,memory Gaussian vector autoregression for the logarithmic daily realized volatilities perform admirably. Moreover, the vector autoregressive volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal,normal mixture distribution produces well,calibrated density forecasts of future returns, and correspondingly accurate quantile predictions. Our results hold promise for practical modeling and forecasting of the large covariance matrices relevant in asset pricing, asset allocation, and financial risk management applications. [source] Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern EuropeJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 3 2005Jesús Crespo Cuaresma Abstract We compare the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates of five Central and Eastern European currencies (Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Slovak Koruna, Slovenian Tolar and Polish Zloty) against the US Dollar and the Euro. Although these models tend to outperform the random walk model for long-term predictions (6 months ahead and beyond), even the best models in terms of average prediction error fail to reject the test of equality of forecasting accuracy against the random walk model in short-term predictions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Growth and the poor: a comment on Dollar and KraayJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 5 2002Malte Lübker In a recent paper Dollar and Kraay come to sweeping conclusions about economic growth and the poor. On the basis of empirical work they assert that standard World Bank and IMF policy packages are good for the poor. This paper demonstrates that (i) the empirical work is based on theoretically unsound equations; (ii) the data are seriously flawed; and (iii) the policy variables are not defined appropriately, nor are they tested in a consistent manner. These problems imply that the policy conclusions of the authors are unsafe. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Financial Management for Nurse Managers: Merging the Heart with the DollarJOURNAL OF NURSING MANAGEMENT, Issue 5 2010Jacinta Kelly No abstract is available for this article. [source] Fear of Floating and the External Effects of Currency UnionsAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2008Thomas Plümper The introduction of the Euro has considerably affected the de facto monetary policy autonomy,defined as independence from monetary policy in the key currency areas,in countries outside the European Currency Union (ECU). Using a standard open economy framework, we argue that de facto monetary policy autonomy has significantly declined for countries that dominantly trade with the ECU and slightly increased for countries that dominantly trade with the Dollar zone. The predictions of our model find support in the data. We estimate the influence of the Bundesbank's/ECB's and the Fed's monetary policies on various country groups. The de facto monetary policy autonomy of both non-Euro EU members and EFTA countries declined with the introduction of the Euro. This effect was slightly stronger for the EU member countries than for EFTA countries as our theory predicts. At the same time, the de facto monetary policy autonomy of Australia and New Zealand vis-à-vis the US Dollar has (moderately) increased. [source] Is Price in Hong Kong That Flexible?ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 2 2002Evidence from the Export Sector Using the Johansen procedure, this paper estimates and compares the adjustment speeds of Hong Kong's export volume and export price. Result of this will have profound implications on the debate of the appropriateness of Hong Kong's current exchange-rate system. Two cointegrating vectors were found in our system, with one postulating the export volume equation and another postulating the export price equation. It was found that export volume will adjust relatively fast to shocks in the export volume equation, and that export price will adjust relatively slow to shocks in the export volume equation. On the other hand, export volume will be insensitive, and export price will adjust at moderate speed, to disequilibrium in the export price equation. Based on the estimated model, we also conducted simulation exercises to highlight the impacts of the appreciation of the US Dollar and the reduction in world demand on Hong Kong's export volume during the crisis and post-crisis periods. [source] The Equilibrium Yen,Dollar Rate: 1976,91ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 1 2002Anthony De Carvalho This paper presents a definition of the equilibrium exchange rate that is based on a modified version of purchasing power parity (PPP) for traded goods. Employing constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production functions and data from 28 three-digit international standard industrial classification (ISIC) manufacturing industries, the equilibrium Yen-Dollar rate is calculated for the period between 1976 and 1991 (a time in which the Yen appreciated markedly against the Dollar) showing that the actual Yen-Dollar rate closely tracked the equilibrium rate over that time. The results suggest that strong growth in Japanese labor productivity, coupled with Japan's relatively low capital-labor elasticity of sub-stitution, were the main contributors to the Yen's long-run appreciation. [source] Be El Caudillo's Guest: The Franco Regime's Quest for Rehabilitation and Dollars after World War II via the Promotion of U.S. Tourism to SpainDIPLOMATIC HISTORY, Issue 3 2006Neal Moses Rosendorf First page of article [source] Cost-effectiveness of primary cytology and HPV DNA cervical screeningINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CANCER, Issue 2 2008Peter Bistoletti Abstract Because cost-effectiveness of different cervical cytology screening strategies with and without human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing is unclear, we used a Markov model to estimate life expectancy and health care cost per woman during the remaining lifetime for 4 screening strategies: (i) cervical cytology screening at age 32, 35, 38, 41, 44, 47, 50, 55 and 60, (ii) same strategy with addition of testing for HPV DNA persistence at age 32, (iii) screening with combined cytology and testing for HPV DNA persistence at age 32, 41 and 50, iv) no screening. Input data were derived from population-based screening registries, health-service costs and from a population-based HPV screening trial. Impact of parameter uncertainty was addressed using probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis. Cytology screening between 32 and 60 years of age in 3,5 year intervals increased life expectancy and life-time costs were reduced from 533 to 248 US Dollars per woman compared to no screening. Addition of HPV DNA testing, at age 32 increased costs from 248 to 284 US Dollars without benefit on life expectancy. Screening with both cytology and HPV DNA testing, at ages 32, 41 and 50 reduced costs from 248 to 210 US Dollars with slightly increased life expectancy. In conclusion, population-based, organized cervical cytology screening between ages 32 to 60 is highly cost-efficient for cervical cancer prevention. If screening intervals are increased to at least 9 years, combined cytology and HPV DNA screening appeared to be still more effective and less costly. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] DR CONGO: Mines, Dollars and DamsAFRICA RESEARCH BULLETIN: ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL SERIES, Issue 9 2009Article first published online: 2 NOV 200 No abstract is available for this article. [source] FUNDING COMMUNITY POLICING TO REDUCE CRIME: HAVE COPS GRANTS MADE A DIFFERENCE?,CRIMINOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 1 2002JIHONG "SOLOMON" ZHAO Research Summary: This research examines how funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS), has affected violent and property crime rates in the United States from 1995 to 1999. Drawing on six years of panel data, we examine the effects of three types of awards made by COPS to 6,100 law enforcement agencies serving more than 145 million citizens. We estimate their impact on crime reduction over time in jurisdictions receiving funding and controlling for baseline levels of crime, socioeconomic characteristics, city size, and population diversity and mobility. Our analyses suggest that COPS hiring and innovative grant programs have resulted in significant reductions in local crime rates in cities with populations greater than 10,000 for both violent and nonviolent offenses. Multivariate analysis shows that in cities with populations greater than 10,000, an increase in one dollar of hiring grant funding per resident contributed to a corresponding decline of 5.26 violent crimes and 21.63 property crimes per 100,000 residents. Similarly, an increase in one dollar of innovative grant funding per resident has contributed to a decline of 12.93 violent crimes and 45.53 property crimes per 100,000 persons. In addition, the findings suggest that COPS grants have had no significant negative effect on violent and property crime rates in cities with less than 10,000 population. Policy Implications: The findings of this study imply that COPS program funding to medium- and large-size cities has been an effective force in reducing both violent and property crime. Federal government grants made directly to law enforcement agencies to hire additional officers and promote innovations may be an effective way to reduce crime on a national scale. [source] WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM DOLLAR DEPRECIATIONECONOMIC AFFAIRS, Issue 1 2008Sergio Da Silva We examine the relationship between the US current account deficit, the international value of the dollar, and the dollar reserves of foreign central banks. The declining dollar could benefit US savers at the expense of foreign investors in the USA. [source] Regional Income Inequality and International TradeECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2004Julie A. Silva Abstract: This study investigates the effects of trade on income inequality across regions in the United States. Using both structural and price-based measures of regional trade involvement, we evaluate the effects of trade on inequality within and across states, the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan portions of the states, and the major census regions. Across all states and metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, we found that trade affects inequality primarily via import and export prices. In contrast to our expectations, however, a weaker dollar,more expensive imports and cheaper exports,is associated with the worsening of a state's position relative to other states and greater inequality within the state. Across the census regions, both our price and orientation measures had significant effects, but the direction of these effects varied by region. Whereas many regions benefited from cheaper imports, states in regions that are traditionally home to low-wage sectors, including the Southeast and South Central regions, were made relatively worse off by lower import prices and by greater orientation toward import-competing goods. Our findings reinforce notions about the uneven impacts of globalization and suggest that policy measures are needed to ensure that both the benefits and costs of involvement in international trade are shared across regions. [source] THE PROCYCLICAL LEVERAGE EFFECT OF COLLATERAL VALUE ON BANK LOANS,EVIDENCE FROM THE TRANSACTION DATA OF TAIWANECONOMIC INQUIRY, Issue 2 2007NAN-KUANG CHEN We investigated the empirical relationship between firms' collateral values and land-secured loans over asset price cycles. A simultaneous equation model of loan demand and supply was estimated using a transaction-level data set from Taiwan. The data set contains collateral information and identifies lenders and borrowers. We found that the value of collateralizable assets has positive and significant effects on loan amounts and that the leverage effect of collateral is procyclical to asset price cycles. Firms in the electronics industry, the star industry in the sample period, are found to borrow more than other firms do at each marginal dollar of collateral. (JEL C50, E30, G20) [source] Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange RateECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2003Gabriele Galati This paper investigates to what extent daily movements in the euro/dollar rate were driven by news about the macroeconomic situation in the USA and the euro area during the first two years of EMU. We examine whether market participants reacted to news in different ways depending on whether the news came from the USA or from the euro area, and whether the news was good or bad. Furthermore, we investigate whether traders' reaction to news has changed over time. We find that macroeconomic news has a statistically significant correlation with daily movements of the euro against the dollar. However, this relationship exhibits considerable time variation. There are indications of asymmetric response, but to different extents at different times. Our results also provide evidence that the market seemed to ignore good news and remain fixated on bad news from the euro area, as often claimed in market commentaries, but only for some time. Finally, we find evidence that the impact of macroeconomic news on the euro/dollar rate was stronger when news switches from good to bad or vice versa. (J.E.L.: F31). [source] Deterministic and Stochastic Methods for Estimation of Intra-day Seasonal Components with High Frequency DataECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 2 2001Andrea Beltratti We introduce a model for the analysis of intra-day volatility based on unobserved components. The stochastic seasonal component is essential to model time-varing intra-day effects. The model is estimated with high frequency data for Deutsche mark,US dollar for 1993 and 1996. The model performs well in terms of coherence with the theoretical aggregation properties of GARCH models, it is effective in terms of both forecasting ability and describing reactions to macroeconomic news. (J.E.L.: C14, C53, F31). [source] Will there be a dollar crisis?ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 51 2007Paul Krugman SUMMARY Will there be a dollar crisis? Almost everyone believes that the US current account deficit must eventually end, and that this end will involve dollar depreciation. However, many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually. This paper shows that any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough to prevent the accumulation of implausible levels of US external debt would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect. As a result, there will at some point have to be a ,Wile E. Coyote moment', a point at which expectations are revised, and the dollar drops sharply. It is much less clear, however, whether this ,crisis' will produce macroeconomic problems. , Paul Krugman [source] That Which Makes the Sensation of Blue a Mental Fact: Moore on Phenomenal RelationismEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PHILOSOPHY, Issue 3 2007Benj Hellie A gift of a dollar for each article in the philosophy of perception and consciousness published since 1990 making reference, explicitly or implicitly, to Moore's discussion in the second half of Moore 19031 of an alleged ,transparency' and ,diaphanousness' pertaining to some aspect of perceptual experience would very likely cover the tab of a mid-priced dinner for two.2 Moore's poetically expressed observations have captured the imagination of contemporary philosophers of perception and consciousness, and have served as the basis of much fruitful discussion in those areas. Still, despite all the attention these observations have received, the contemporary literature lacks a close reading of the second half of Moore's paper, without which it is impossible to understand Moore's observations in the context in which they were originally expressed. It is understandable that such a close reading is lacking: the second half of Moore's paper has been rightly described by one of his most sympathetic and dedicated interpreters as ,extremely dense and opaque' (Klemke 2000: 55).3 But despite the evident difficulties of the task, I aim here, with some trepidation, to provide the missing close reading. The main points of my interpretation will be these. The centerpiece of the anti-idealist manoeuvrings of the second half of the paper is a phenomenological argument for what I will call a relational view of perceptual phenomenal character, on which, roughly, ,that which makes the sensation of blue a mental fact' is a relation of conscious awareness, a view close to the opposite of the most characteristic contemporary view going under the transparency rubric.4 The discussion of transparency and diaphanousness is a sidelight, its principal purpose to shore up the main line of argumentation against criticism; in those passages all Moore argues is that the relation of conscious awareness is not transparent, while acknowledging that it can seem to be. My discussion will proceed as follows. In section 1, I will discuss some theses and elucidate some notions from the philosophy of perception and consciousness which will be central to my interpretation; having done so, I will be in a position to explain how an accurate understanding of Moore may contribute to theoretical advances in the philosophy of perception and consciousness. The next two sections contain the exegetical heart of the paper: section 2 provides an analysis of Moore's case for the relational view; section 3 attempts to explain the place of the relational view in the overall refutation of idealism. Section 4 critically discusses a pair of competing interpretations. Section 5 wraps things up, drawing concluding morals as to the campaigns on behalf of which Moore should and should not be enlisted. [source] How do changes in parental investment influence development in echinoid echinoderms?EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT, Issue 6 2009Nicholas J. Alcorn SUMMARY Understanding the relationship between egg size, development time, and juvenile size is critical to explaining patterns of life-history evolution in marine invertebrates. Currently there is conflicting information about the effects of changes in egg size on the life histories of echinoid echinoderms. We sought to resolve this conflict by manipulating egg size and food level during the development of two planktotrophic echinoid echinoderms: the green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis and the sand dollar, Echinarachnius parma. Based on comparative datasets, we predicted that decreasing food availability and egg size would increase development time and reduce juvenile size. To test our prediction, blastomere separations were performed in both species at the two-cell stage to reduce egg volume by 50%, producing whole- and half-size larvae that were reared to metamorphosis under high or low food levels. Upon settlement, age at metamorphosis, juvenile size, spine number, and spine length were measured. As predicted, reducing egg size and food availability significantly increased age at metamorphosis and reduced juvenile quality. Along with previous egg size manipulations in other echinoids, this study suggests that the relationship between egg size, development time, and juvenile size is strongly dependent upon the initial size of the egg. [source] Assets in Place, Growth Opportunities, and IPO ReturnsFINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2005Kee H. Chung We consider a simple model positing that initial public offering price is equal to the present value of an entity's assets in place and growth opportunities. The model predicts that initial return is positively related to both the size and risk of growth opportunities. Consistent with this prediction, we find initial return to be positively related to both the fraction of the offer price that is accounted for by the present value of growth opportunities and various proxies of issue uncertainty. We also find that IPO investors equate one dollar of growth opportunities to approximately three quarters of tangible assets. [source] The impact of the euro on Europe's financial marketsFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 3 2003Gabriele Galati This paper presents an overview of the impact of the introduction of the euro on Europe's financial structure over the first four years since the start of EMU. It analyzes changes in money markets, bond markets, equity markets and foreign exchange markets. Euro's role in originating or catalyzing trends has been uneven across the spectrum of financial markets. From the supply side, banks and investors in fixed income markets have become more focused on the characteristics of individual borrowers rather than the nationality of the issuer and have built up expertise to evaluate credit risk. European equity markets have also been affected by the enhanced ability of investors to build strategies with a pan-European perspective as prices increasingly reflected risk factors specific to industrial sectors rather than individual countries. On the borrower side, EMU has increased the attractiveness of market-based financing methods by allowing debt issuers to tap institutional portfolios across the euro area. Lower barriers to cross-border financial transactions have also increased the contestability of the market for financial services, be it at the wholesale or the retail level. The introduction of the euro has also highlighted the shortcomings of existing institutional structures and areas where excessive focus on narrowly defined interests may stand in the way of realizing the full potential benefits from the new environment. Diverging legal and institutional infrastructures and market practices can impede further financial market development and deepening. Hence, the euro has put a premium on cooperation between national authorities and institution as a means of achieving a more harmonized financial environment. The impact of EMU on depth in foreign exchange markets has been less clear-cut, as volatility, spreads, trading volumes and liquidity appear not to have changed in a substantial way. Overall, it seems that the new currency has made some progress towards the goal of becoming a currency of international stature that would rival that of the US dollar. However, a number of the necessary next steps towards achieving this goal are also among the trickiest to implement. [source] Tailored for Panama: Offshore Banking at the Crossroads of the AmericasGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES B: HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2002Barney Warf With the steady integration of a deregulated world of hypermobile capital, offshore banking has become an increasingly significant part of the geography of international finance. Many interpretations tend to treat offshore banking centres as identical sites of investment that can be easily substituted for one another by completely mobile, fungible capital. This paper explores the nature of offshore banking in one largely overlooked centre, Panama. It charts the historic context that led to the creation of Latin America's most important centre of international banking, emphasizing the unique qualities that stand in contrast to hyperglobalist interpretations, including the Canal and the role of the US dollar. Second, it summarizes the regulatory changes initiated in the face of global neoliberalism, including the absence of a central bank and recent reforms designed to attract foreign capital. Using primary and secondary data, the paper maps Panama's growing role as a net capital exporter, charting domestic and foreign loan markets. Finally, it also addresses the trade,offs between confidentiality, and transparency in the context of illicit activities frequently alleged to occur in offshore banking centres, which in Panama revolve around drug trafficking and money laundering. It concludes by noting that even in an ostensibly seamless world, offshore banking exhibits the place,based embeddedness of financial capital within local institutional relations. [source] German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Levels, International Trade and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment CostsGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2007Horst Entorf Exchange rate exposure; macroeconomic risks; financial panel econometrics Abstract. This article analyses value changes of German stock market companies in response to movements of the US dollar. The approach followed in this work extends the standard means of measuring exchange rate exposure in several ways, e.g. by using multifactor modelling instead of augmented Capital Asset Pricing Model, application of moving window panel regressions and orthogonalization of overall market risk vis-à-vis currency risk. A further innovation lies in testing the theoretical implications of exchange rate adjustment costs (hedging costs) for firm values and economic exposure. Based on time series and panel data of German Deutsche Aktien Xchange companies, Deutsche Mark/dollar rates and macroeconomic factors, we find a rather unstable, time-variant exposure of German stock market companies. Dollar sensitivity is positively affected by the ratio of exports/gross domestic product (GDP) and negatively affected by imports/GDP. Moreover, as expected from theoretical findings, firm values and exchange rate exposure are significantly reduced by adjustment costs depending on the distance of the exchange rate from the expected long-run mean. [source] Benefit-Cost Analysis of Addiction Treatment: Methodological Guidelines and Empirical Application Using the DATCAP and ASIHEALTH SERVICES RESEARCH, Issue 2 2002Michael T. French Objective. To provide detailed methodological guidelines for using the Drug Abuse Treatment Cost Analysis Program (DATCAP) and Addiction Severity Index (ASI) in a benefit-cost analysis of addiction treatment. Data Sources/Study Setting. A representative benefit-cost analysis of three outpatient programs was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and value of the methodological guidelines. Study Design. Procedures are outlined for using resource use and cost data collected with the DATCAP. Techniques are described for converting outcome measures from the ASI to economic (dollar) benefits of treatment. Finally, principles are advanced for conducting a benefit-cost analysis and a sensitivity analysis of the estimates. Data Collection/Extraction Methods. The DATCAP was administered at three outpatient drug-free programs in Philadelphia, PA, for 2 consecutive fiscal years (1996 and 1997). The ASI was administered to a sample of 178 treatment clients at treatment entry and at 7-months postadmission. Principal Findings. The DATCAP and ASI appear to have significant potential for contributing to an economic evaluation of addiction treatment. The benefit-cost analysis and subsequent sensitivity analysis all showed that total economic benefit was greater than total economic cost at the three outpatient programs, but this representative application is meant to stimulate future economic research rather than justifying treatment per se. Conclusions. This study used previously validated, research-proven instruments and methods to perform a practical benefit-cost analysis of real-world treatment programs. The study demonstrates one way to combine economic and clinical data and offers a methodological foundation for future economic evaluations of addiction treatment. [source] A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity Exporters: Peg the Export Price (,PEP')INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2003Jeffrey Frankel On the one hand, the big selling points of floating exchange rates , monetary independence and accommodation of terms of trade shocks , have not lived up to their promise. On the other hand, proposals for credible institutional monetary commitments to nominal anchors have each run aground on their own peculiar shoals. Rigid pegs to the dollar are dangerous when the dollar appreciates. Money targeting does not work when there is a velocity shock. CPI targeting is not viable when there is a large import price shock. And the gold standard fails when there are large fluctuations in the world gold market. This paper advances a new proposal called PEP: peg the export price. Most applicable for countries that are specialized in the production of a particular mineral or agricultural product, the proposal calls on them to commit to fix the price of that commodity in terms of domestic currency. A series of simulations shows how such a proposal would have worked for oil producers over the period 1970,2000. The paths of real oil prices, exports, and debt are simulated under alternative regimes. An illustrative finding is that countries that suffered a declining world market in oil or other export commodities in the late 1990s would under the PEP proposal have automatically experienced a depreciation and a boost to exports when it was most needed. The argument for PEP is that it simultaneously delivers automatic accommodation to terms of trade shocks, as floating exchange rates are supposed to do, while retaining the credibility-enhancing advantages of a nominal anchor, as dollar pegs are supposed to do. [source] The Euro and International Capital MarketsINTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2000Carsten Detken Long before the introduction of the euro there was an active debate among researchers, policy-makers and financial market participants over how the new European money would change the relative roles of currencies in the international monetary and financial system. A widely held view was that the euro's use in international capital markets would be the key element. Therefore, this paper provides a broad empirical examination of the major currencies' roles in international capital markets, with a special emphasis on the first year of the euro. A contribution is made as to how to measure these roles, both from the viewpoint of international financing and from that of international investment activities. Time series of these new measures are presented, including euro aggregates calculated up to six years back in time. The data allow for the identification of changes in the role of the euro during 1999 compared to the aggregate of euro predecessor currencies, net of intra-euro area assets/liabilities, since the start of stage 2 of EMU in 1994. A number of key factors determining the currency distribution of international portfolio investments, such as relative market liquidity and relative risk characteristics of assets, are also examined empirically. It turns out that for almost all important market segments for which data are available, the euro immediately became the second most widely used currency for international financing and investment. For the flow of international bond and note issuance it even slightly overtook the US dollar in the second half of 1999. The data also suggest that most of this early supply of euro bonds by non-euro area residents, clearly exceeding the euro-predecessor currency aggregate, is actually absorbed by euro area residents and not by outside investors so far. [source] Measurement matters for modelling US import prices,INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2009Charles P. Thomas Abstract We focus on capturing the increasingly important role that emerging economies play in determining US import prices. Emerging-market producers differ from others in two respects: (1) their cost structure is well below that of developed-market producers, and (2) their wide profit margins induce pricing policies that seek to exhaust production capacity. We argue that these features have dampened the short-run responses of import prices to changes in the value of the dollar but that they have not altered the associated long-run response. To capture these considerations, we develop a new method to measure foreign prices and adopt a formulation that differentiates between short- and long-run responses. Our econometric work asks two questions: First, can one replicate the literature's dispersion of pass-through estimates? Second, is there any evidence of a change in the dynamic response of import prices to changes in the exchange value of the dollar? To address the first question, we estimate the parameters of our models using several alternative measures of US and foreign prices, dynamic specifications, and sample periods. We find that these alternative inputs translate into a large range of parameter estimates, a finding that helps to rationalizing the existing dispersion of estimates. To address the second question, we compute the implied dynamic adjustment of import prices to a change in the value of the dollar using parameters estimated from two samples: 1974,2000 and 1974,2005. The long-run response of import prices is similar regardless of which sample is used,roughly one-half of the change in the exchange rate is passed through to import prices. However, the short,run response is quite sensitive to the sample period. Specifically, the short-run response based on data through 2005 is smaller than the short-run response based on data through 2000. We argue that one force behind the change in dynamics of the import-price process is the greater presence of producers from emerging economies and that their effect on import prices can be captured with their measure of foreign prices. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The real exchange rate and real interest differentials: the role of nonlinearitiesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2005Nelson C. Mark Abstract Recent empirical work has shown the importance of nonlinear adjustment in the dynamics of real exchange rates and real interest differentials. This work suggests that the tenuous empirical linkage between the real exchange rate and the real interest differential might be strengthened by explicitly accounting for these nonlinearities. We pursue this strategy by pricing the real exchange rate by real interest parity. The resulting first-order stochastic difference equation gives the real exchange rate as the expected present value of future real interest differentials which we compute numerically for three candidate nonlinear processes. Regressions of the log real US dollar prices of the Canadian dollar, deutschemark, yen and pound on the fundamental values implied by these nonlinear models are used to evaluate the linkage. The evidence for linkage is stronger when these present values are computed over shorter horizons than for longer horizons. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis revisitedINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2002W.A. Razzak Abstract It is widely accepted that long-term interest rates are more suitable for testing the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) than shorter-term rates. This paper shows that while using longer-term (1-year) forward exchange rates are also more suitable than shorter-term rates (1-month) for testing the forward exchange rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) the test is sensitive to the choice of the numeraire currency, i.e. the US dollar, the Deutsche mark (DM) or the Japanese yen. The FRUH holds in currencies measured in terms of the US dollar when a one-year forward contract is used instead of a one-month contract, but it does not hold when the DM and the yen are used as numeraire currencies. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||