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Disturbance Pattern (disturbance + pattern)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Life Sciences	85%

Selected Abstracts

FIRE DISTURBANCE PATTERNS AND FOREST AGE STRUCTURE

NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING, Issue 4 2001
CHAO LI
ABSTRACT. This paper investigates how the stability of forest age-distribution is related to the fire regimes. We start with the derivation of theoreticalnegative exponentialforest age-distribution, and use three models to explore the condition with which a stable age-distribution could be expected. The results suggested that a stable age-distribution could always be achieved as long as the forest age-specific mortality is constant over time, and the shape of a stable age-distribution is mainly determined by the forest age-specific mortality. However, the stability of forest age-distribution will be reduced when a small variation in the age-specific mortality is introduced. The simulation results of the possible patterns of the age-distribution under various fire regimes indicated that a variety of age-distribution curves could appear, including negative exponential and one or multiple peaks in the curves. The results suggested that a stable forest age-distribution might never be achieved if the forest landscape is subjected to large and irregular fire disturbances. [source]

Metapopulation Extinction Risk under Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbance

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2005
A. S. KALLIMANIS
patrón espacial de perturbación; simulaciones espacialmente explícitas; SLOSS; umbral de extinción Abstract:,Recent extinction models generally show that spatial aggregation of habitat reduces overall extinction risk because sites emptied by local extinction are more rapidly recolonized. We extended such an investigation to include spatial structure in the disturbance regime. A spatially explicit metapopulation model was developed with a wide range of dispersal distances. The degree of aggregation of both habitat and disturbance pattern could be varied from a random distribution, through the intermediate case of a fractal distribution, all the way to complete aggregation (single block). Increasing spatial aggregation of disturbance generally increased extinction risk. The relative risk faced by populations in different landscapes varied greatly, depending on the disturbance regime. With random disturbance, the spatial aggregation of habitat reduced extinction risk, as in earlier studies. Where disturbance was spatially autocorrelated, however, this advantage was eliminated or reversed because populations in aggregated habitats are at risk of mass extinction from coarse-scale disturbance events. The effects of spatial patterns on extinction risk tended to be reduced by long-distance dispersal. Given the high levels of spatial correlation in natural and anthropogenic disturbance processes, population vulnerability may be greatly underestimated both by classical (nonspatial) models and by those that consider spatial structure in habitat alone. Resumen:,Los modelos recientes de extinción generalmente muestran que la agregación espacial de hábitat reduce el riesgo de extinción debido a una recolonización más rápida de sitios vacíos por extinción local. Extendimos la investigación para incluir la estructura espacial en el régimen de perturbación. Desarrollamos un modelo metapoblacional espacialmente explícito en el que el patrón espacial tanto del hábitat como de los regímenes de perturbación podía variar aleatoriamente de fractal a completamente agregado (bloque) y con una amplia gama de distancias de dispersión. El incremento de la agregación espacial de la perturbación generalmente incrementó el riesgo de extinción. El riesgo relativo que enfrentan poblaciones en paisajes diferentes fue muy variable, dependiendo del régimen de perturbación. Con perturbación aleatoria, la agregación espacial de hábitat redujo el riesgo de extinción, como en estudios anteriores. Sin embargo, cuando la perturbación estaba autocorrelacionada espacialmente, esta ventaja se eliminaba o invertía debido a que las poblaciones en hábitats agregados están en riesgo de extinción masiva por eventos perturbadores a escala gruesa. Los efectos de patrones espaciales sobre el riesgo de extinción tendieron a reducirse por la dispersión de larga distancia. Debido a los altos niveles de correlación espacial en los procesos naturales y humanos de perturbación, la vulnerabilidad puede estar enormemente subestimada tanto por modelos clásicos (no espaciales) como por los que sólo consideran la estructura espacial del habitat. Los modelos que consideran la estructura espacial del hábitat solo subestiman el riesgo en comparación con modelos que consideran la estructura especial de la perturbación. [source]

A new approach to influence diagnostics in superpopulations

ENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 4 2005
J. M. Fernández-Ponce
Abstract Influence analysis on a model is one of the most studied topics from a frequentist viewpoint. Basically, disturbances are introduced into the model in order to measure the influence that one or a set of observations has on statistical analysis. The most common disturbance pattern is that of the omission of the observations whose influence is to be studied. In our model, we assume that there are only one or a few outliers because they may often be detected by deletion methods associated with regression diagnostics. However, these methods may fail in the presence of multiple outliers. In this case, the forward search can be used to avoid the masking and swamping problems. This article presents a Bayes approach for the influence analysis on a model in finite populations. Particularly, we develop a new approach to the study of influence in prediction theory, based on the given data rather than on the sampling design for data collection. We propose that the influence analysis on the superpopulation normal regression model and a measure based on the conditional bias from a Bayesian viewpoint is analyzed. Forward deletion formulae based on our influence measure can be defined, but this topic is beyond the scope of this article. Finally, we apply our proposed influence measure in a classic example for water contents of soil specimens. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Population dynamics in Digitalis purpurea: the interaction of disturbance and seed bank dynamics

JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2007
NINA SLETVOLD
Summary 1Plant ecologists have long since realized that the persistence of many facultative biennial plants depends upon disturbance. However, we still have a limited knowledge of the population-level effects of disturbance, and the connection between adult and seed bank dynamics. 2Using data from a 3-year demographic study combined with experimental gap-opening in a large population of Digitalis purpurea, we parameterized stochastic transition matrix models in ,disturbed' vs. ,undisturbed' areas. We simulated different gap sizes (fraction of population that was disturbed) and temporal disturbance patterns (constant, random, regular and irregular return intervals) and evaluated the effects on population growth rate and seed bank dynamics. To explore seed bank importance we used two alternatives for seed bank survival rate (0.75/0.35) and three alternatives for seed bank recruitment fraction (0.9/0.5/0.1). 3Observed background recruitment levels were insufficient to ensure a positive population growth rate. Increased amounts of gap-opening led to higher growth rates, and population persistence was predicted at moderate disturbance levels if seed bank survival was high (0.75). 4Temporal disturbance pattern affected model results; random and interval scenarios resulted in lower population growth rates and higher extinction risks than constant scenarios of the same average disturbance level. Small and frequent disturbances led to considerably higher growth rates than large and rare disturbances. 5Stochastic elasticity analyses identified the seed bank as the most important life cycle stage with respect to population growth and persistence in most scenarios, and its relative impact was positively related to seed bank survival rate and negatively related to disturbance level. Variation in the recruitment fraction from seed bank vs. seed rain affected both population growth rate and elasticity patterns, indicating the large impact of spatial variation in seed bank density. 6Synthesis: Despite the existence of a large seed bank, our data suggest that recruitment may be locally seed-limited due to a patchy seed bank structure. Local population development may consequently differ widely from gap to gap. These results illustrate how spatial structures in both seed bank, adult population and gap formation interact to shape plant population dynamics, as well as the occurrence of microsite- vs. seed-limitation. [source]

A Historical Perspective and Future Outlook on Landscape Scale Restoration in the Northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens

RESTORATION ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2000
Volker C. Radeloff
Abstract The concurrent discussions of landscape scale restoration among restoration ecologists, and of historic disturbance pattern as a guideline for forest management among forest scientists, offer a unique opportunity for collaboration between these traditionally separated fields. The objective of this study was to review the environmental history, early restoration projects, and current plans to restore landscape patterns at broader scales in the 450,000 ha northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens. The Pine Barrens offer an example of a landscape shaped by fire in the past. In northwestern Wisconsin historically the barrens were a mosaic of open prairie, savanna, and pine forests on very poor, sandy soils. The surrounding region of better soils was otherwise heavily forested. Six restoration sites have been managed since the middle of this century using prescribed burns to maintain the open, barrens habitat. However, these sites are not extensive enough to mimic the shifting mosaic of large open patches previously created by fire. Extensive clear-cuts may be used as a substitute for these large fire patches so that presettlement landscape patterns are more closely approximated in the current landscape. We suggest that such silvicultural treatments can be suitable to restore certain aspects of presettlement landscapes, such as landscape pattern and open habitat for species such as grassland birds. We are aware that the effects of fire and clear-cuts differ in many aspects and additional management tools, such as prescribed burning after harvesting, may assist in further approximating the effect of natural disturbance. However, the restoration of landscape pattern using clear-cuts may provide an important context for smaller isolated restoration sites even without the subsequent application of fire, in this formerly more open landscape. [source]

Climate, competition, and the coexistence of island lizards

FUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2006
L. B. BUCKLEY
Summary 1The influence of environmental temperatures and competition combine to determine the distributions of island lizards. Neither a bioenergetic model nor simple models of competition alone can account for the distributions. A mechanistic, bioenergetic model successfully predicts how the abundance of a solitary Anolis lizard species will decline along an island's elevation gradient. However, the abundance trends for sympatric lizards diverge from the predictions of the non-interactive model. 2Here we incorporate competition in the bioenergetic model and examine how different forms of competition modify the temperature-based abundance predictions. 3Applying the bioenergetic model with competition to an island chain tests whether the model can successfully predict on which islands two lizards species will coexist. 4Coexistence is restricted to the two largest islands, which the model predicts have substantially greater carrying capacities than the smaller islands. The model successfully predicts that competition prevents species coexistence on the smallest islands. However, the model predicts that the mid-sized islands are capable of supporting substantial populations of both species. Additional island characteristics, such as habitat diversity, resource availability and temporal disturbance patterns, may prevent coexistence. [source]