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Demographic Stochasticity (demographic + stochasticity)
Selected AbstractsReproductive Investment of a Lacertid Lizard in Fragmented HabitatCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2005JOSÉ A. DÍAZ calidad de hábitat; fragmentación de bosque; Psammodromus; tamaño de puesta; tamaño de huevo Abstract:,We studied the effect of habitat fragmentation on female reproductive investment in a widespread lacertid lizard ( Psammodromus algirus) in a mixed-forest archipelago of deciduous and evergreen oak woods in northern Spain. We captured gravid females in fragments (,10 ha) and forests (, 200 ha) and brought them to the laboratory, where they laid their eggs. We incubated the eggs and released the first cohort of juveniles into the wild to monitor their survival. Females from fragments produced a smaller clutch mass and laid fewer eggs (relative to mean egg mass) than females of similar body size from forests. Lizards did not trade larger clutches for larger offspring, however, because females from fragments did not lay larger eggs (relative to their number) than females from forests. Among the first cohort of juveniles, larger egg mass and body size increased the probability of recapture the next year. Thus, fragmentation decreased the relative fecundity of lizards without increasing the quality of their offspring. Reduced energy availability, increased predation risk, and demographic stochasticity could decrease the fitness of lizards in fragmented habitats, which could contribute to the regional scarcity of this species in agricultural areas sprinkled with small patches of otherwise suitable forest. Our results show that predictable reduction of reproductive output with decreasing size of habitat patches can be added to the already known processes that cause inverse density dependence at low population numbers. Resumen:,Estudiamos el efecto de la fragmentación sobre la inversión reproductiva de hembras en una lagartija lacértida ( Psammodromus algirus) ampliamente distribuida en un archipiélago mixto de bosques deciduos y siempre verdes de roble en el norte de España. Capturamos hembras grávidas en fragmentos (, 10 ha) y en bosques (, 200 ha) y las trasladamos al laboratorio, donde pusieron sus huevos. Incubamos los huevos y liberamos a la primera cohorte de juveniles para monitorear su supervivencia. Las hembras de fragmentos produjeron una puesta de menor masa y pusieron menos huevos (en relación con la masa promedio de los huevos) que hembras con talla corporal similar provenientes de bosques. Sin embargo, las lagartijas no cambiaron puestas mayores por crías más grandes porque las hembras de fragmentos no pusieron huevos más grandes (en relación con su número) que las hembras de bosques. Entre las primeras cohortes de juveniles, la mayor masa de los huevos incrementó la probabilidad de recaptura en el siguiente año. Por lo tanto, la fragmentación redujo la fecundidad relativa de las lagartijas sin aumentar la calidad de sus crías. La disponibilidad reducida de energía, el incremento en el riesgo de depredación y la estocasticidad demográfica podrían disminuir la adaptabilidad de lagartijas en hábitats fragmentados, lo que podría contribuir a la escasez regional de esta especie en áreas agrícolas salpicadas de pequeños parches de bosque por lo demás adecuado. Nuestros resultados muestran que la reducción predecible en la reproducción al disminuir el tamaño de los parches de hábitat se puede agregar a los procesos ya conocidos que causan la inversión de la denso dependencia en tamaños poblacionales pequeños. [source] Estimating the growth of a newly established moose population using reproductive valueECOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2007Bernt-Erik Sæther Estimating the population growth rate and environmental stochasticity of long-lived species is difficult because annual variation in population size is influenced by temporal autocorrelations caused by fluctuations in the age-structure. Here we use the dynamics of the reproductive value to estimate the long-term growth rate s and the environmental variance of a moose population that recently colonized the island of Vega in northern Norway. We show that the population growth rate was high (,=0.26). The major stochastic influences on the population dynamics were due to demographic stochasticity, whereas the environmental variance was not significantly different from 0. This supports the suggestion that population growth rates of polytocous ungulates are high, and that demographic stochasticity must be assessed when estimating the growth of small ungulate populations. [source] Effects of climate on population fluctuations of ibexGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2008VIDAR GRØTAN Abstract Predicting the effects of the expected changes in climate on the dynamics of populations require that critical periods for climate-induced changes in population size are identified. Based on time series analyses of 26 Swiss ibex (Capra ibex) populations, we show that variation in winter climate affected the annual changes in population size of most of the populations after accounting for the effects of density dependence and demographic stochasticity. In addition, precipitation during early summer also influenced the population fluctuations. This suggests that the major influences of climate on ibex population dynamics operated either through loss of individuals during winter or early summer, or through an effect on fecundity. However, spatial covariation in these climate variables was not able to synchronize the population fluctuations of ibex over larger distances, probably due to large spatial heterogeneity in the effects of single climate variables on different populations. Such spatial variation in the influence of the same climate variable on the local population dynamics suggests that predictions of influences of climate change need to account for local differences in population dynamical responses to climatic conditions. [source] Time to extinction in relation to mating system and type of density regulation in populations with two sexesJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2004BERNT-ERIK SÆTHER Summary 1Population viability models usually consider only the female segment of the population. However, random variation in sex ratio as well as the mating system may also affect variation in fitness among females. Here we develop population models incorporating demographic stochasticity in both sexes. Furthermore, we consider the effects on the estimated time to extinction and whether density regulation acts only on females or on total population size. 2We applied these models to two populations of polygynous great reed warblers Acrocephalus arundinaceus L. with differences in population trends to investigate the importance of considering sex in population viability models. 3Demographic stochasticity was larger in a polygynous than in a monogamous mating system. 4The estimated time to extinction was considerably shorter for a monogamous than for a polygynous mating system, particularly if density regulation acted only on females than rather on the total population. 5This study demonstrates that structure of mating system must be included when making population viability analysis based on counts of total population sizes. It is especially important to model the specific effects of density regulation on the two sexes. [source] Reproductive assurance through self-fertilization does not vary with population size in the alien invasive plant Datura stramoniumOIKOS, Issue 8 2007Mark van Kleunen Autonomous self-fertilization is suggested to be associated with invasiveness in plants because it offers reproductive assurance when there is a shortage of suitable mates or pollinators. Given that shortages of mates and pollinators are a common cause of Allee effects in small plant populations, we predict that the benefits of self-fertilization in terms of reproductive assurance should be greatest in small populations. We tested this idea for the invasive herb Datura stramonium, a self-fertilizing species which is also cross-pollinated to some extent by insects (mainly hawkmoths and honeybees). During two consecutive years, we studied 20 and 55 populations, respectively, of different sizes. Untreated flowers of D. stramonium showed high levels of fruit and seed set in all populations studied. Although, fruit and seed set were generally reduced by about 90% in flowers in which self-fertilization was prevented through emasculation, this effect did not vary according to population size. By using a natural color (anthocyanin) dimorphism in 12 populations, we showed that the average outcrossing rate was low (1.3%) and that there was no relationship between outcrossing rate and population size. Pollen removal from flowers also did not vary according to population size, suggesting that the pollinator visitation rate is not lower in small populations. However, decreasing deviations of observed from expected fruit set with population size imply that small populations may have an increased chance of extinction due to demographic stochasticity. Overall, our results suggest that reproductive assurance through self-fertilization in invasive plants may be important for all stages of population establishment, and not just in the founder population. [source] Female-biased dispersal, low female recruitment, unpaired males, and the extinction of small and isolated bird populationsOIKOS, Issue 2 2001Svein Dale Small and isolated populations are usually assumed to be at a high risk of extinction due to environmental or demographic stochasticity, genetic problems, or too little immigration. In birds, natal dispersal is usually female-biased, but the consequences of such a pattern on vulnerability to extinction of isolated populations has not received much attention before. In this paper I derive predictions as to how female-biased natal dispersal may differentially affect the extinction risk of populations and species with contrasting distributions, migratory behaviours, life histories and mating systems. Female-biased dispersal will lead to male-biased sex ratios in small, isolated or fragmented populations, in particular because recent research has shown that females often have a limited ability to search for mates and may therefore effectively be lost from the breeding population if they disperse into areas empty of conspecifics. I reviewed published studies on birds and found that a high proportion of unpaired males is common in isolated populations or populations in small habitat fragments. Dispersal of females may therefore increase the vulnerability to extinction of small or isolated populations, or populations at the periphery of a species' distribution range. I also predict that vulnerability to extinction should be greater for migratory than for resident species and greater for short-lived than for long-lived species because of differences in the time available for females to locate unpaired males. Further, extinction risk may also be greater for birds than for mammals due to differences in which sex disperses and patterns of parental care. Finally, mating system will also affect vulnerability to extinction when natal dispersal leads to biased sex ratios. I review available evidence for these predictions (e.g. songbird declines in North America) and discuss implications for conservation. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||