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Demographic Shifts (demographic + shift)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Humanities and Social Sciences	62%
Medical Sciences	37%

Selected Abstracts

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT AND PROJECTED LABOUR SHORTAGE IN CHINA

ECONOMIC PAPERS: A JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY, Issue 3 2007
INGRID NIELSEN
As a result of China's family planning policy of ,raising population quality and controlling population size' initiated in the late 1970s, China has accomplished a population transition from high birth rate, low mortality rate and high population growth to low birth rate, low mortality rate and low population growth within a remarkably short timeframe. Along with this population transition, however, comes a shift in population age structure, with a rapid increase in the proportion of elderly people. This paper explores the implications of China's demographic shift for labour supply and suggests policy changes to target an emerging labour shortage. [source]

"Demographic Futures for Christianity and the World Religions"

DIALOG, Issue 1 2004
By Todd M. Johnson
Abstract:, Since before 1970 Christian researchers have been tracking the massive demographic shift of Christianity to the Southern Hemisphere and noting the increasingly religious nature of populations around the world. At the same time, writers on the future of religion have been drawn to extreme portrayals of decline or revival of religion. However, the world's religious situation is replete with detailed information, drawn from enormous data collections on religious affiliation and questions about religion in government censuses. Quantitative tools, utilizing this information in the context of demography provide a more nuanced view of humankind's religious future. Demographic trends coupled with conservative estimates of conversions and defections envision over 80% of the world's population will continue to be affiliated with religions 200 years into the future. This religious future will have a profound influence on Christian theology, relations between religions, and the interaction between religion and politics. [source]

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT AND PROJECTED LABOUR SHORTAGE IN CHINA

Alan Greenspan on the Economic Implications of Population Aging

POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, Issue 4 2004
Article first published online: 15 DEC 200
At the 2004 annual symposium of central bank leaders sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, devoted his opening remarks on 27 August to a discussion of the economic implications of population aging. The full text of his remarks is reproduced below. Greenspan's high prestige and great influence on US economic policy lend special interest to his views on this much-discussed subject (see also the next Documents item in this issue). He outlines the coming demographic shift in the United States in language that is characteristically cautious and qualified. (The elderly dependency ratio will "almost certainly" rise as the baby boom generation retires, Greenspan says, although elsewhere he terms the process, more accurately, inexorable.) The main factor responsible for population aging he identifies as the decline of fertility. Immigration is an antidote, but, to be effective, its size would have to be much larger than is envisaged in current projections. Greenspan's assessment of the economic consequences of the changing age structure highlights the prospect of a deteriorating fiscal situation in the United States: chronic deficits in the Social Security program over the long haul, assuming that existing commitments for benefits per retiree are met, and even greater difficulties for the health care system for the elderly,Medicare,in which the effects of increasing numbers in old age are amplified by advances in medical technology and the bias inherent in the current system of subsidized third-party payments. The sober outline of policy choices imposed by population aging,difficult in the United States, but less so, Greenspan notes, than in Europe and Japan,underlies the need for counteracting the declining growth of the population of labor force age through greater labor force participation and later retirement. Beyond that, growth of output per worker can provide the key "that would enable future retirees to maintain their expected standard of living without unduly burdening future workers." This requires continuation of policies that enhance productivity, such as deregulation and globalization, and greater investment. In turn, the latter presupposes greater domestic saving, both personal and by the government, as the United States cannot "continue indefinitely to borrow saving from abroad." Demographic aging requires a new balance between workers and retirees. Curbing benefits once bestowed is difficult: only benefits that can be delivered should be promised. Public programs should be recalibrated, providing incentives for individuals to adjust to the inevitable consequences of an aging society. [source]

Recent Changes in the Workforce and Practice of Dermatologic Surgery

DERMATOLOGIC SURGERY, Issue 3 2009
EMILY P. TIERNEY MD
BACKGROUND The increasing number of American College of Mohs Surgery (ACMS) fellowship positions over the last decade has resulted in a greater number of fellowship-trained surgeons in dermatologic surgery. METHODS Mohs micrographic fellowship-trained surgeons (MMFTSs) and non-Mohs fellowship-trained surgeons performing Mohs micrographic surgery (NMMFTSs) were compared using the American Academy of Dermatology Practice Profile Survey (2002/05). An analysis of recent Mohs fellowship classes was also performed. RESULTS In 2005, there was an equivalent proportion of MMFTSs and NMMFTSs in the workforce (ratio MMFTS:NMMFTS=0.9) but, in 2005, there was a shift in the youngest age cohort (29,39) to a greater proportion of MMFTSs (MMFTS:NMMFTS=1.55). In 2005, the youngest MMFTSs (29,39) were more likely to be female (47.1%) than of MMFTSs overall (24%). MMFTSs were 5 times as likely to be in full-time academic positions and performed 2 to 3 times as many Mohs cases per week as NMMFTSs. CONCLUSIONS Consistent with demographic shifts in dermatology, differences have emerged in the demographics, surgical volumes, and settings of MMFTSs and NMMFTSs. Recent increases in the ACMS fellowship positions have resulted in a greater proportion of MMFTSs among younger dermatologic surgeons. It will be important to follow how this increase in fellowship trainees affects the dermatologic surgery workforce. [source]

Mortality from multiple sclerosis in Austria 1970,2001: dynamics, trends, and prospects

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF NEUROLOGY, Issue 8 2004
E. Ekestern
A divergence in earlier multiple sclerosis (MS) mortality rates observed within Europe, prompted us to determine the MS mortality rate in Austria and several European countries. Our aim was to examine the temporal and geographical variations within Austria and to determine future MS mortality rates based on a projection model. MS mortality data set, differentiated by age groups, sex, and region at death for the period 1970,2001 were obtained. Prognostic MS mortality trends for the period 2002,2020 were estimated using the simultaneous multiple cause,delay (SIMCAD) method. Our findings indicate a decline (47%) in the MS mortality rate from 1.41 (1970,79) to 0.96 (1980,89) and 0.70 (1990,2001) per 100 000 in Austria during the 32-year period observed. Conversely, the scenarios of our projection for the period 2002,2020, reveal an increasing MS mortality rate. The median age at death because of MS increased with 0.7 years for men and 2.9 years for women during the observed period (1970,2001). Austria, like many other European countries, has experienced a decreasing MS mortality rate over the last three decades. An increased MS mortality rate is however expected over the next decades in Austria. This increase will be most prominent in the elderly population cohorts because of demographic shifts. [source]

Parenthood, Childlessness, and Well-Being: A Life Course Perspective

JOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND FAMILY, Issue 3 2010
Debra Umberson
This article reviews recent research (1999,2009) on the effects of parenthood on well-being. We use a life course framework to consider how parenting and childlessness influence well-being throughout the adult life course. We place particular emphasis on social contexts and how the impact of parenthood on well-being depends on marital status, gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. We also consider how recent demographic shifts lead to new family arrangements that have implications for parenthood and well-being. These include stepparenting, parenting of grandchildren, and childlessness across the life course. [source]

Are employment shifts into non-manufacturing industries partially responsible for the decline in occupational injury rates?

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL MEDICINE, Issue 10 2009
Tim F. Morse PhD
Abstract Background Bureau of Labor Statistics figures have shown declines in injury and illness rates over the past 25 years. It is unclear what factors are contributing to that decline. Methods Connecticut injury and illness data was industry-adjusted to account for the shifts in employment by industry sector for the 25-year period from 1976 to 2000. Additional adjustment was made for manufacturing sub-sectors, since declines in manufacturing employment accounted for the largest proportion of the shift in injuries over that period. Results Approximately 18% of the decline in injury and illness rates was associated with a shift in employment from more hazardous to less hazardous industries. Shifts in manufacturing sub-sectors accounted for an additional 5.7% of the decline. Conclusion A significant proportion of the decline in injury and illness rates appears to be due to demographic shifts in industry composition. Am. J. Ind. Med. 52:735,741, 2009. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source]