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Demographic Projections (demographic + projection)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	50%

Selected Abstracts

Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return

GERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2003
Axel Börsch-Supan
Aging; pension reform; rates of return Abstract. This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform , that is, a shift towards more pre-funding , for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed-economy, overlapping-generations model to compare the effects of the recent German pension reform with those of a more decisive reform that would freeze the current pay-as-you-go contribution rate and thus result in a larger funded component of the pension system. We predict rates of return to capital under both reform scenarios over a long horizon, taking demographic projections as given. Our main finding is that the future decrease in the rate of return is much smaller than often claimed in the public debate. Our simulations show that the capital stock will decrease once the baby-boom generations enter retirement, even if there were no fundamental pension reform. The corresponding decrease in the rate of return, the direct effect of population aging, is around 0.7 percentage points. While the capital market effects of the recent German pension reform are marginal, the rate of return to capital would decrease by an additional 0.5 percentage points under the more decisive reform proposal. [source]

Who will we serve in the future?

NEW DIRECTIONS FOR STUDENT SERVICES, Issue 114 2006
The new student in transition
Hispanics are the fastest-growing ethnic population in the United States. This chapter presents demographic projections for higher education and discusses the role of the transfer function in community colleges. Two notable transfer programs are highlighted. [source]

Can OECD Countries Afford Demographic Change?

THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2007
Ross Guest
This article provides new calculations on the effects of demographic change on living standards in all 30 OECD countries using the latest demographic projections up to 2050 from the United Nations, World Population Prospects, 2004 Revision. The calculations include several potential dividends that could offset, at least in part, the costs of a lower working age population share. The effects of demographic change calculated here are mechanical in that there is no explicit optimising behaviour. In the worst case scenario, which assumes zero potential dividends and no increase in labour force participation rates, the negative effect of demographic change on living standards among OECD countries over the whole period from 2006 to 2050 ranges from zero to 28 per cent, with an average over all countries of 15.5 per cent. In the best case scenario the average effect is zero. About half of the difference between the best and worst case scenarios is accounted for by higher labour force participation and about half by the potential dividends from demographic change. [source]

Immigration and the aged care workforce in Australia: Meeting the deficit

AUSTRALASIAN JOURNAL ON AGEING, Issue 4 2007
Michael D Fine
Population ageing and low fertility rates are placing the Australian workforce in the twenty-first century under pressure. Aged care is one of the key areas of the workforce in which labour shortages can be expected. This is likely to result in calls for these shortages to be increasingly addressed by the recruitment of more immigrant care workers, both skilled and unskilled. Using demographic projections and the limited data available on the current workforce, this paper examines the existing levels of migrant representation and considers the prospects for future increases in overseas-born workers. The evidence shows that staff born outside Australia already compose a significant proportion of the workforce. Immigrants are not, however, equally distributed through the workforce, but are concentrated geographically in metropolitan areas. Those born overseas are also concentrated occupationally, although there is no simple pattern of confinement of migrants to low-paid or unqualified positions. [source]