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Demographic Parameters (demographic + parameter)
Selected AbstractsAquagenic pruritus: associated diseases and clinical pruritus characteristicsJOURNAL DER DEUTSCHEN DERMATOLOGISCHEN GESELLSCHAFT, Issue 10 2010Tina Heitkemper Summary Background: Aquagenic pruritus (AP) can be induced by systemic diseases. The distribution of underlying diseases in a representative patient collective has not been investigated. This retrospective study aimed to determine the frequency and pruritus-specific parameter of systemic diseases in a series of patients. Patients and methods: Data of 39 patients with AP (24 f, 15 m; mean age: f: 51.3 ± 20.1, m: 57.2 ± 15.0 years) were obtained and statistically evaluated as follows: demographic data, pruritus characteristics, underlying diseases, family history. Results: 30.8 % of patients exhibited polycythemia vera or myelofibrosis (Group 1: G1), in 69.2 % (G2) no underlying disease was found. 25.6 % had lactose intolerance as possible contributing factor. Women were significantly more common in G2 (p < 0.01), with a lower mean age (p < 0.01) and longer duration of AP (18.9 years, p < 0.01). Conclusions: AP occurs frequently with polycythemia vera. Other underlying diseases are rare; in over half of the patients no cause can be detected. In 25 % lactose intolerance is present which possibly acts as co-factor. Demographic parameters (age, gender) allow estimation of the possible underlying disease in AP. Pruritus characteristics are similar in all groups and not helpful in determining the origin of AP. [source] pedagog: software for simulating eco-evolutionary population dynamicsMOLECULAR ECOLOGY RESOURCES, Issue 3 2010JASON A. COOMBS Abstract pedagog is a Windows program that can be used to determine power for, and validate inferences drawn from, eco-evolutionary studies. It models dynamics of multiple populations and their interactions through individual-based simulations while simultaneously recording genotype, pedigree and trait information at the individual level. pedagog also allows for specification of heritable traits, natural and sexual selection acting upon those traits, population sampling schemes and incorporation of genetic and demographic errors into the output. Overall, parameters can be specified for genetic diversity, demographics, mating design, genetic and demographic errors, individual growth models, trait heritability and selection, and output formatting. Demographic parameters can be either age or function based, and all parameters can be drawn from 12 statistical distributions where appropriate. Simulation results can be automatically formatted for 57 existing software programs to facilitate postsimulation analyses. pedagog is freely available for download at https://bcrc.bio.umass.edu/pedigreesoftware/. [source] Human papillomavirus and WHO type I nasopharyngeal carcinoma,,THE LARYNGOSCOPE, Issue 10 2010Emily J. Lo BA Abstract Objectives: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a rare cancer in the United States. An association between NPC and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is well-established for World Health Organization (WHO) types II and III (WHO-II/III) NPC but less well-established for WHO type I (WHO-I) NPC. Given the rise in oropharyngeal tumors positive for high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) and the unique biology of WHO-I NPC, we examined the relationship between HPV and WHO-I NPC. Study Design: Retrospective case-comparison study. Methods: A search of a large multidisciplinary cancer center tumor registry identified 183 patients seen from January 1999 to December 2008 with incident NPC and no prior cancer. Available paraffin-embedded tumor specimens (N = 30) were analyzed for oncogenic HPV status by in situ hybridization (ISH) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for HPV-16 and HPV-18; EBV status by ISH; and p16 expression by immunohistochemistry. Demographic parameters, including race and smoking, were obtained from the medical records. Results: Among the 18 WHO-I NPC patients, 66% (N = 12) were smokers and 17% (N = 3) Asian; among the 165 WHO-II/III NPC patients, 44% (N = 73) were smokers and 24% (N = 39) Asian. Eight WHO-I NPC patients had available paraffin blocks; five of six were HPV-16-positive by PCR and four of eight were HPV-positive by ISH; only two of eight (25%) were EBV-positive. Twenty-two WHO-II/III NPC patients had available paraffin blocks; only 1 was HPV-positive by ISH, and 13 of 22 (60%) were EBV-positive. Conclusions: These results suggest that WHO-I NPC is associated with oncogenic HPV, although larger studies are needed to verify these findings. Laryngoscope, 2010 [source] Mycobacterial infection in a series of 1261 renal transplant recipientsCLINICAL MICROBIOLOGY AND INFECTION, Issue 6 2003J. A. Queipo Objective To describe the incidence and clinical characteristics of mycobacterial infection in renal transplant recipients. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the cases of mycobacterial infection in a series of 1261 renal transplants carried out in our Unit of Renal Transplantation from 1980 to 2000. Demographic parameters and clinical antecedents such as age, cause of end-stage renal disease, time of follow-up of the graft, previous renal function and type of immunosuppression were considered. Moreover, the clinical onset, diagnostic tools, treatment policy and evolution were studied. The pathogenesis of the different types of mycobacteria isolated was also analyzed. Diagnosis was made with the Ziehl,Neelsen staining method. Culture was performed by the conventional Löwenstein,Jensen method and the Bactec-460 radiometric method. Results We found mycobacterial infection in 27 patients (2.1%), due to Mycobacterium tuberculosis in 20 cases, M. kansasii in five patients, and M. fortuitum in two patients. The mean elapsed time from the renal transplant was 20.5 months; the infection appeared in 18 patients during the first eight months after transplantation. The clinical onset was pulmonary infection in 17 cases (12 M. tuberculosis and five M. kansasii); five had urinary symptoms (three M. tuberculosis and two M. fortuitum); three cases of M. tuberculosis infection had abdominal symptoms; another one began with a perineal tuberculous abscess; the rest of the patients were asymptomatic. The types of specimen on which microbiological identification was carried out were, in decreasing order: sputum and/or bronchial washing/pleural aspiration, urine, feces, gastric and peritoneal fluids, bone marrow and blood. The first-line drug isoniazid had the highest resistance index in the susceptibility test. Clinical dissemination was observed in eight patients, four of whom died. Another three patients had a significant impairment in renal function, and in one of these patients an allograft nephrectomy was necessary due to a severe septic syndrome. Conclusions Mycobacterial infection, mainly by M. tuberculosis, has an important impact on kidney transplant recipients, particularly during the first year after surgery. Diagnosis often presents some difficulties, and a delay in treatment represents a determinant factor for the evolution, with a risk of death or permanent damage in renal function. Therefore, early diagnosis is mandatory. When the Mantoux reaction is positive, antituberculous prophylaxis seems advisable. [source] Linking habitat selection, emigration and population dynamics of freshwater fishes: a synthesis of ideas and approachesECOLOGY OF FRESHWATER FISH, Issue 2 2006T. E. McMahon Abstract,,, The consequences of individual behaviour to dynamics of populations has been a critical question in fish ecology, but linking the two has proven difficult. A modification of Sale's habitat selection model provides a conceptual linkage for relating resource availability and individual habitat selection to exploratory behaviour, emigration and population-level responses. Whole-population experiments with pupfish Cyprinodon macularius that linked all factors along this resource to population continuum lend support to this conceptual model, and illustrate that emigration may be much more common in fish populations than considered in most individual- or population-based models. Accommodating emigration can enhance the ecological appropriateness of behavioural experiments and increase confidence in extrapolation of experimental observations to population-level effects. New experimental designs and advancing technologies offer avenues for assessing population consequences of habitat selection and emigration by individual fish. Emigration often is the key linkage between individual behaviour and population responses, and greater understanding of the underlying factors affecting this often-overlooked demographic parameter could offer new approaches for management and conservation of fishes. [source] Non-independence of demographic parameters: positive density-dependent fecundity in eaglesJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2008Miguel Ferrer Summary 1Using information on the Doñana population of Spanish imperial eagles Aquila adalberti from 1959 to 2004, we present strong empirical support to theoretical models on the regulation of population trajectories by the relationships between breeder mortality and floater availability. 2During the study period, the eagle population showed three distinct phases: (i) a population increase with negative density-dependent fecundity; (ii) a period of stability without any relationship between density and fecundity; and (iii) a population decrease with a positive relationship between density and fecundity. 3A dramatic increase in annual adult mortality due to an increase in poisoning in hunting areas surrounding the Doñana National Park was recorded. The use of poison against generalist predators accounted for more than 54% of the total number of breeding eagles found dead since 1990, increasing annual adult mortality from 6·07 to 12·01%. 4This high mortality reduced the population annually by 6% during the 1992,2004 period. Also, the population changed from a negative to a positive relationship between density and fecundity (Allee effect). These trends made the population approach extinction due to the double effect of increasing breeder mortality and low availability of floaters. 5A supplementary feeding programme established in 1990 did not increase fecundity because it was a consequence of high adult mortality rather than low food availability. The high mortality of adults increased the risk of breeding failure and also decreased the availability of floaters, decreasing the likelihood of mate substitution. 6Synthesis and applications. The main target in species conservation management plans is often a single demographic parameter (typically, fecundity in raptor populations). Our research demonstrates, however, that demographic parameters must not be considered as independent variables when formulating management programmes. The essential relationship between adult mortality and the availability of floaters must be better understood to avoid the risk of implementing inefficient management strategies. Although fecundity was low in this eagle population, it was a result of high adult mortality rates. Consequently, management must aim to correct the unusual mortality and recover the floater population. [source] Linking resources with demography to understand resource limitation for bearsJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2007MELISSA J. REYNOLDS-HOGLAND Summary 1,Identifying the resources that limit growth of animal populations is essential for effective conservation; however, resource limitation is difficult to quantify. Recent advances in geographical information systems (GIS) and resource modelling can be combined with demographic modelling to yield insights into resource limitation. 2,Using long-term data on a population of black bears Ursus americanus, we evaluated competing hypotheses about whether availability of hard mast (acorns and nuts) or soft mast (fleshy fruits) limited bears in the southern Appalachians, USA, during 1981,2002. The effects of clearcutting on habitat quality were also evaluated. Annual survival, recruitment and population growth rate were estimated using capture,recapture data from 101 females. The availability of hard mast, soft mast and clearcuts was estimated with a GIS, as each changed through time as a result of harvest and succession, and then availabilities were incorporated as covariates for each demographic parameter. 3,The model with the additive availability of hard mast and soft mast across the landscape predicted survival and population growth rate. Availability of young clearcuts predicted recruitment, but not population growth or survival. 4,Availability of hard mast stands across the landscape and availability of soft mast across the landscape were more important than hard mast production and availability of soft mast in young clearcuts, respectively. 5,Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that older stands, which support high levels of hard mast and moderate levels of soft mast, should be maintained to sustain population growth of bears in the southern Appalachians. Simultaneously, the acreage of intermediate aged stands (10,25 years), which support very low levels of both hard mast and soft mast, should be minimized. The approach used in this study has broad application for wildlife management and conservation. State and federal wildlife agencies often possess long-term data on both resource availability and capture,recapture for wild populations. Combined, these two data types can be used to estimate survival, recruitment, population growth, elasticities of vital rates and the effects of resource availability on demographic parameters. Hence data that are traditionally used to understand population trends can be used to evaluate how and why demography changes over time. [source] Demo-genetic analysis of a recovering population of otters in Central SwedenANIMAL CONSERVATION, Issue 6 2008M. Björklund Abstract We performed a demo-genetic population viability analysis on a recovering population of otters Lutra lutra in Central Sweden, using data on population size, survival and genetic data from microsatellites. Population data were obtained from genotyping faeces. At present, the size and genetic variability of the population is increasing. We found that survival to first reproduction was the most crucial demographic parameter, and that even slight changes downward in this parameter, might lead to a declining population trajectory. Human factors that can affect mortality are traffic, fishing equipment and traps, and we argue that efforts to minimize road kills by means of safe passages as well as careful fishing efforts in streams and lakes would reduce the risk of extinction. In general, even though the population is now growing and has no inbreeding problem, its small abundance could make it vulnerable to chance events and environmental perturbations. [source] Darwinian fitness, evolutionary entropy and directionality theoryBIOESSAYS, Issue 11 2005Klaus Dietz Two recent articles1,2 provide computational and empirical validation of the following analytical fact: the outcome of competition between an invading genotype and that of a resident population is determined by the rate at which the population returns to its original size after a random perturbation. This phenomenon can be quantitatively described in terms of the demographic parameter termed "evolutionary entropy", a measure of the variability in the age at which individuals produce offspring and die. The two articles also validate certain predictions of directionality theory, an evolutionary model that integrates demography and ecology with population genetics. In particular, directionality theory predicts that in populations that spend the greater part of their life cycle in the stationary growth phase, evolution will result in an increase in entropy. These species will be described by a late age of sexual maturity, small progeny sets and a broad reproductive time-span. In populations that undergo large fluctuations in size, however, the evolutionary outcome will be different. When the average size is large, evolution will result in a decrease in entropy,these populations will be described by early age of sexual maturity, large numbers of offspring and narrow reproductive span but when the average size is small, the evolutionary outcome will be random and non-directional. BioEssays 27:1097,1101, 2005. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Life history and population size variability in a relict plant.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 1 2008Different routes towards long-term persistence ABSTRACT A central tenet of conservation biology is that population size affects the persistence of populations. However, many narrow endemic species combine small population ranges and sizes with long persistence, thereby challenging this tenet. I examined the performance of three different-sized populations of Petrocoptis pseudoviscosa (Caryophyllaceae), a palaeoendemic rupicolous herb distributed along a small valley in the Spanish Pyrenees. Reproductive and demographic parameters were recorded over 6 years, and deterministic and stochastic matrix models were constructed to explore population dynamics and extinction risk. Populations differed greatly in structure, fecundity, recruitment, survival rate, and life span. Strong differentiation in life-history parameters and their temporal variability resulted in differential population vulnerability under current conditions and simulated global changes such as habitat fragmentation or higher climatic fluctuations. This study provides insights into the capacity of narrow endemics to survive both at extreme environmental conditions and at small population sizes. When dealing with species conservation, the population size,extinction risk relationship may be too simplistic for ancient, ecologically restricted organisms, and some knowledge of life history may be most important to assess their future. [source] Invasion of Agave species (Agavaceae) in south-east Spain: invader demographic parameters and impacts on native speciesDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 5-6 2004Ernesto I. Badano ABSTRACT Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the success of invasive species in new environments. A species may become invasive when a new site provides the potential for positive rates of population growth. This may be the case of several Agave species introduced to Spain in the 1940s. In this paper we document factors that promote large increases of populations of these species, and their effects on native plant communities in two sites of SE Spain. Results showed higher rhizome and bulbil production, and higher establishment rates by agaves in sandy soils than in clay soils. In their native habitats, agaves have low establishment rates and sandy soils are rare. This suggests that sandy soils are an opportunity which releases the clonal reproduction of Agave. The effects of agaves on the physiological performance and reproduction of native species were negative, positive or neutral, depending on the size and rooting depth of neighbours. Assemblages of native species growing within Agave stands had lower diversity than non-invaded sites. Our data show that Agave stands have positive growth rates in SE Spain, and suggest that sandy soils are a niche dimension enhancing the invasion in these new habitats. [source] Echocardiographic Left Ventricular Mass in a Multiethnic Southeast Asian Population: Proposed New Gender and Age-Specific NormsECHOCARDIOGRAPHY, Issue 8 2008M.R.C.P., Raymond Ching-Chiew Wong M.B.B.S. Background: Left ventricular mass (LVM) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular outcome. We aimed to define normal reference values of LVM/body surface area (BSA) in a multiethnic Southeast Asian population across ages, and define demographic parameters that predict LVM/BSA. Methods: 198 subjects (44% men, mean age 40 ± 14 years, 82% Chinese, 13% Malay and 5% Indian) with no cardiovascular comorbidity and had normal echo images for age were included in the analysis. Echo LVM was calculated as: 1.04 ×[(left ventricular internal diameter at end-diastole {LVIDd}+ interventricular septal thickness at end-diastole {IVSd}+ left ventricular posterior wall thickness at end-diastole {LVPWd})3, LVIDd3× 0.8]+ 0.61, indexed by BSA (LVM/BSA)* and expressed as g/m2. Results: BSA and blood pressure (BP) were comparable between dichotomous age groups < or , 50 years within the same gender. Women aged , 50 years had larger IVSD, LVPWd, LVM and LVM/BSA compared to younger cohort. (p < 0.01 for all variables). The 95th percentile of LVM in men and women were 189 g and 148 g respectively; corresponding values for LVM/BSA were 106 and 96 g/m2. These values are consistently smaller than published values from the West. Age (r = 0.27, P < 0.001), gender (r =,0.30, P < 0.001), and systolic BP (r = 0.25, P = 0.003) were significant univariate predictors of LVM/BSA. Conclusion: We therefore propose a different cutoff value for the diagnosis of LV hypertrophy among Southeast Asians. [source] Life-history strategy in an oligophagous tephritid: the tomato fruit fly, Neoceratitis cyanescensECOLOGICAL ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 4 2008THIERRY BRÉVAULT Abstract 1.,In phytophagous insects, life-history traits mainly depend on host plant range. Substantial longevity, high fecundity and larval competition are the major traits of polyphagous Tephritidae while species with a restricted host range generally exhibit a lower longevity and fecundity as well as mechanisms to avoid larval competition. Our aim in this study was to investigate the life history of an oligophagous species, the tomato fruit fly, Neoceratitis cyanescens (Bezzi). 2.,We determined life tables under laboratory conditions in order to calculate the main demographic parameters of N. cyanescens and studied the influence of larval and adult diet on life-history traits. 3.,The mean longevity of N. cyanescens females was 40 days. There was a strong synchronisation of female maturity. Oviposition showed an early peak at 9,13 days after a short pre-oviposition period (6 days). The absence of proteins in the adult diet both delayed ovarian maturation and decreased female fecundity. In addition, females originating from tomato fruits produced significantly more eggs than females originating from bugweed or black nightshade, showing that even the larval host plant may strongly affect the subsequent fecundity of adult females. 4.,The traits of N. cyanescens are then discussed in the light of those documented for polyphagous and monophagous tephritids. Neoceratitis cyanescens displayed attributes intermediate between those of polyphagous and monophagous tephritids. Its smaller clutch size compared with polyphagous species and its specialisation on the Solanaceae family whose fruits contain toxic compounds may help in reducing intra- and inter-specific competition, respectively. [source] A review of relationships between interspecific competition and invasions in fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae)ECOLOGICAL ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 5 2004Pierre-Francois Duyck Abstract., 1. A number of invasions in the family Tephritidae (fruit flies) have been observed worldwide despite quarantine procedures. In this review, the potential importance of interspecific competition and competitive displacement among different tephritid species is evaluated in the context of recent invasions. 2. Where polyphagous tephritid species have been introduced in areas already occupied by a polyphagous tephritid, interspecific competition has resulted in a decrease in number and niche shift of the pre-established species. No reciprocal invasions have been observed. 3. The data on tephritid invasions seem to support a hierarchical mode of competition; however, complete exclusion usually did not occur. Indeed, tephritid distribution and abundance are markedly structured by various abiotic (mostly climatic) and biotic (host plants) factors. 4. The primary determinant of competitive interactions in near-optimal conditions, such as lowlands with abundant fruit plantations, is probably the life-history strategy. The r,K gradient could be used as a predictor of potential invaders, because K traits (such as large adult size) may favour both exploitation and interference competition. 5. For future research, a better understanding of competition mechanisms seems essential. Different species competing in the same area should be compared with respect to: (i) demographic parameters, (ii) the outcome of experimental co-infestations on the same fruit, and (iii) behavioural and chemical interference mechanisms. [source] On the relationship between niche and distributionECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 4 2000H.R. Pulliam Applications of Hutchinson's n -dimensional niche concept are often focused on the role of interspecific competition in shaping species distribution patterns. In this paper, I discuss a variety of factors, in addition to competition, that influence the observed relationship between species distribution and the availability of suitable habitat. In particular, I show that Hutchinson's niche concept can be modified to incorporate the influences of niche width, habitat availability and dispersal, as well as interspecific competition per se. I introduce a simulation model called NICHE that embodies many of Hutchinson's original niche concepts and use this model to predict patterns of species distribution. The model may help to clarify how dispersal, niche size and competition interact, and under what conditions species might be common in unsuitable habitat or absent from suitable habitat. A brief review of the pertinent literature suggests that species are often absent from suitable habitat and present in unsuitable habitat, in ways predicted by theory. However, most tests of niche theory are hampered by inadequate consideration of what does and does not constitute suitable habitat. More conclusive evidence for these predictions will require rigorous determination of habitat suitability under field conditions. I suggest that to do this, ecologists must measure habitat specific demography and quantify how demographic parameters vary in response to temporal and spatial variation in measurable niche dimensions. [source] INVESTIGATING EVOLUTIONARY TRADE-OFFS IN WILD POPULATIONS OF ATLANTIC SALMON (SALMO SALAR): INCORPORATING DETECTION PROBABILITIES AND INDIVIDUAL HETEROGENEITYEVOLUTION, Issue 9 2010Mathieu Buoro Evolutionary trade-offs among demographic parameters are important determinants of life-history evolution. Investigating such trade-offs under natural conditions has been limited by inappropriate analytical methods that fail to address the bias in demographic estimates that can result when issues of detection (uncertain detection of individual) are ignored. We propose a new statistical approach to quantify evolutionary trade-offs in wild populations. Our method is based on a state-space modeling framework that focuses on both the demographic process of interest as well as the observation process. As a case study, we used individual mark,recapture data for stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon juveniles in the Scorff River (Southern Brittany, France). In freshwater, juveniles face two life-history choices: migration to the ocean and sexual maturation (for males). Trade-offs may appear with these life-history choices and survival, because all are energy dependent. We found a cost of reproduction on survival for fish staying in freshwater and a survival advantage associated with the "decision" to migrate. Our modeling framework opens up promising prospects for the study of evolutionary trade-offs when some life-history traits are not, or only partially, observable. [source] Ecological responses to altered flow regimes: a literature review to inform the science and management of environmental flowsFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2010N. LEROY POFF Summary 1.,In an effort to develop quantitative relationships between various kinds of flow alteration and ecological responses, we reviewed 165 papers published over the last four decades, with a focus on more recent papers. Our aim was to determine if general relationships could be drawn from disparate case studies in the literature that might inform environmental flows science and management. 2.,For all 165 papers we characterised flow alteration in terms of magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change as reported by the individual studies. Ecological responses were characterised according to taxonomic identity (macroinvertebrates, fish, riparian vegetation) and type of response (abundance, diversity, demographic parameters). A ,qualitative' or narrative summary of the reported results strongly corroborated previous, less comprehensive, reviews by documenting strong and variable ecological responses to all types of flow alteration. Of the 165 papers, 152 (92%) reported decreased values for recorded ecological metrics in response to a variety of types of flow alteration, whereas 21 papers (13%) reported increased values. 3.,Fifty-five papers had information suitable for quantitative analysis of ecological response to flow alteration. Seventy per cent of these papers reported on alteration in flow magnitude, yielding a total of 65 data points suitable for analysis. The quantitative analysis provided some insight into the relative sensitivities of different ecological groups to alteration in flow magnitudes, but robust statistical relationships were not supported. Macroinvertebrates showed mixed responses to changes in flow magnitude, with abundance and diversity both increasing and decreasing in response to elevated flows and to reduced flows. Fish abundance, diversity and demographic rates consistently declined in response to both elevated and reduced flow magnitude. Riparian vegetation metrics both increased and decreased in response to reduced peak flows, with increases reflecting mostly enhanced non-woody vegetative cover or encroachment into the stream channel. 4.,Our analyses do not support the use of the existing global literature to develop general, transferable quantitative relationships between flow alteration and ecological response; however, they do support the inference that flow alteration is associated with ecological change and that the risk of ecological change increases with increasing magnitude of flow alteration. 5.,New sampling programs and analyses that target sites across well-defined gradients of flow alteration are needed to quantify ecological response and develop robust and general flow alteration,ecological response relationships. Similarly, the collection of pre- and post-alteration data for new water development programs would significantly add to our basic understanding of ecological responses to flow alteration. [source] The usefulness of sensitivity analysis for predicting the effects of cat predation on the population dynamics of their avian preyIBIS, Issue 2008MAIREAD M. MACLEAN Sensitivity analyses of population projection matrix (PPM) models are often used to identify life-history perturbations that will most influence a population's future dynamics. Sensitivities are linear extrapolations of the relationship between a population's growth rate and perturbations to its demographic parameters. Their effectiveness depends on the validity of the assumption of linearity. Here we assess whether sensitivity analysis is an appropriate tool to investigate the effect of predation by cats on the population growth rates of their avian prey. We assess whether predation by cats leads to non-linear effects on population growth and compare population growth rates predicted by sensitivity analysis with those predicted by a non-linear simulation. For a two-stage, age-classified House Sparrow Passer domesticus PPM slight non-linearity arose when PPM elements were perturbed, but perturbation to the vital rates underlying the matrix elements had a linear impact on population growth rate. We found a similar effect with a slightly larger three-stage, age-classified PPM for a Winter Wren Troglodytes troglodytes population perturbed by cat predation. For some avian species, predation by cats may cause linear or only slightly nonlinear impacts on population growth rates. For these species, sensitivity analysis appears to be a useful conservation tool. However, further work on multiple perturbations to avian prey species with more complicated life histories and higher-dimension PPM models is required. [source] Relationship between cribra orbitalia and enamel hypoplasia in the early medieval Slavic population at Borovce, SlovakiaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OSTEOARCHAEOLOGY, Issue 3 2008Z. Obertová Abstract Cribra orbitalia and enamel hypoplasia were examined in an early medieval (8th to beginning of 12th century AD) skeletal sample of 451 individuals from Borovce, Slovakia. More than 40% of these individuals died before reaching 20 years of age. The relationship between the occurrence of orbital and enamel lesions was analysed by focusing on the age-specific distribution, and on its influence on demographic parameters. Both features were found in 11.2% of the observed skulls. The presence of orbital and dental lesions showed a considerable impact on mortality as well as the life expectancy. Generally, the highest mortality was observed among 0,4 year old individuals. The greatest discrepancy in the demographic parameters, however, appeared between the affected and unaffected individuals aged 10,14 and 15,19 years. In these two age groups the co-occurrence of both lesions was most frequently recorded. These individuals obviously had a history of sickness, and thus could not cope with further bouts of disease and with the increased physiological demands of pubertal growth. The missing correlation in younger age categories can be largely explained by the difficulty of macroscopically examining the permanent dentition, since an interrelationship between the age at hypoplasia development and the occurrence of cribra orbitalia was detected. Several differences between the individuals with enamel defects and both conditions were observed in the distribution of age at hypoplasia formation. According to these results, several factors, such as impaired health status, growth demands and diet, influence the development of enamel hypoplasia and cribra orbitalia in a particular population. It is possible that after reaching a certain threshold, the underlying factors act synergistically in a kind of vicious cycle as the balance between the immune system, metabolism, and exogenous factors such as pathogens and nutrition, is disturbed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Analysis and discussion of Maned wolf Chrysocyon brachyurus population trends in Brazilian institutions: lessons from the Brazilian studbook, 1969,2006INTERNATIONAL ZOO YEARBOOK, Issue 1 2010R. E. T. VANSTREELS The Maned wolf Chrysocyon brachyurus is the largest canid of South America and is considered Near Threatened by IUCN. Annual studbook questionnaires were sent to 62 institutions in Brazil, and data were obtained for 932 animals (422.406.104) from 1969 to 2006. The historical trend has shown that the Brazilian captive population has progressed towards a maximum size plateau of 140 individuals; several demographic parameters indicated a poor overall breeding success in the population (only 14% of all the potential founders have effectively bred, mean breeding population each year was 18%), low gene flow (only 22% of the animals were transferred between institutions), high infant mortality (79% of all captive-born cubs die within their first year) and poor management of over-represented individuals (20% of the breeding animals had ten or more cubs). A high influx of wild-caught animals was noted (median 12 captures year,1), with most being captured in the economically developed south-eastern region. It is concluded that the captive population is demographically unstable and highly dependent on the influx of wild-caught animals. Broader collaborations with field conservationists and paired research programmes are advised to maximize future ex situ contribution to the conservation of Maned wolf in Brazil. [source] Density dependence in a recovering osprey population: demographic and behavioural processesJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2008V. Bretagnolle Summary 1Understanding how density-dependent and independent processes influence demographic parameters, and hence regulate population size, is fundamental within population ecology. We investigated density dependence in growth rate and fecundity in a recovering population of a semicolonial raptor, the osprey Pandion haliaetus [Linnaeus, 1758], using 31 years of count and demographic data in Corsica. 2The study population increased from three pairs in 1974 to an average of 22 pairs in the late 1990s, with two distinct phases during the recovery (increase followed by stability) and contrasted trends in breeding parameters in each phase. 3We show density dependence in population growth rate in the second phase, indicating that the stabilized population was regulated. We also show density dependence in productivity (fledging success between years and hatching success within years). 4Using long-term data on behavioural interactions at nest sites, and on diet and fish provisioning rate, we evaluated two possible mechanisms of density dependence in productivity, food depletion and behavioural interference. 5As density increased, both provisioning rate and the size of prey increased, contrary to predictions of a food-depletion mechanism. In the time series, a reduction in fledging success coincided with an increase in the number of non-breeders. Hatching success decreased with increasing local density and frequency of interactions with conspecifics, suggesting that behavioural interference was influencing hatching success. 6Our study shows that, taking into account the role of non-breeders, in particular in species or populations where there are many floaters and where competition for nest sites is intense, can improve our understanding of density-dependent processes and help conservation actions. [source] Incorporating movement into models of grey seal population dynamicsJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2006PHILIP J. HARRISON Summary 1One of the most difficult problems in developing spatially explicit models of population dynamics is the validation and parameterization of the movement process. We show how movement models derived from capture,recapture analysis can be improved by incorporating them into a spatially explicit metapopulation model that is fitted to a time series of abundance data. 2We applied multisite capture,recapture analysis techniques to photo-identification data collected from female grey seals at the four main breeding colonies in the North Sea between 1999 and 2001. The best-fitting movement models were then incorporated into state-space metapopulation models that explicitly accounted for demographic and observational stochasticity. 3These metapopulation models were fitted to a 20-year time series of pup production data for each colony using a Bayesian approach. The best-fitting model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), had only a single movement parameter, whose confidence interval was 82% less than that obtained from the capture,recapture study, but there was some support for a model that included an effect of distance between colonies. 4The state-space modelling provided improved estimates of other demographic parameters. 5The incorporation of movement, and the way in which it was modelled, affected both local and regional dynamics. These differences were most evident as colonies approached their carrying capacities, suggesting that our ability to discriminate between models should improve as the length of the grey seal time series increases. [source] Climate change may account for the decline in British ring ouzels Turdus torquatusJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2006COLIN M. BEALE Summary 1Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, but the number of species for which reliable models relate weather and climate to demographic parameters is low. 2We modelled the effect of temperature and rainfall on the breeding success and territory occupancy of ring ouzels Turdus torquatus (L.) in northern Britain, using data from a range of study areas, including one where there was a long-term decline in ring ouzel abundance. 3Timing of breeding was significantly related to meteorological variables affecting birds in the early spring, though there was no evidence that laying dates had advanced. Breeding success was not significantly related to weather variables; instead, over 90% of annual variation in this parameter could be explained by density dependence. 4Annual change in territory occupancy was linked to rainfall and temperature the preceding summer, after the main breeding season and to rainfall in the wintering grounds 24 months previously, coincident with the period of juniper Juniperus sp. (L.) flowering. High temperature in late summer, intermediate levels of late summer rainfall, and high spring rainfall in Morocco 24 months previously all had negative impacts on territory occupancy the following year. 5All three weather variables have changed over recent decades, with a significant increase in summer temperature, a significant decrease in summer rainfall, and a nonsignificant decline in Moroccan spring rainfall. A model based on these trends alone predicted an annual decline in occupancy of 3·6% (compared with an observed decline of 1·2%), and suggested that increased summer temperatures may underlie declines in the British ring ouzel population. 6Changes in summer temperature after the main breeding period could affect the survival rates of adult and/or juvenile birds. An improved understanding of the post-breeding ecology of ring ouzels is required to elucidate the mechanisms and causes of this relationship. Such knowledge might allow management aimed at buffering the impacts of climate change on ring ouzels. [source] Within-sex density dependence and population dynamics of red squirrels Sciurus vulgarisJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2004Luc A. Wauters Summary 1Social organization and dispersal of red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris L.) differ between sexes, and intrasexual competition is intense. Therefore, we predicted that demographic parameters should be gender-specific: that is density-dependent factors will be more strongly related to density of the same sex than to density of the opposite sex. We studied the relative importance of within- and between-sex density-dependent factors and of density-independent factors (habitat type, food abundance, winter temperature) on different demographic parameters, in two populations in northern Belgium. 2Spring density of males was positively correlated with tree-seed abundance in the previous year, but this was not the case for females. None of the population parameters we measured differed between habitats, indicating that the same density-dependent and density-independent mechanisms prevailed in coniferous and deciduous habitat. 3Within each sex, we found several demographic parameters that were dependent on the densities of the same sex; however, none of these parameters was found to be dependent on the density of the opposite sex. 4Reproductive rate increased with food abundance and decreased with female density. Adult survival of females decreased with female density in autumn,winter, while survival of adult males in spring,summer increased with the size of the previous year's seed crop. 5Immigration rate of males was higher in spring than in autumn, and spring immigration increased with food abundance. Male recruitment rate, in both seasons, increased with food abundance, but was male density dependent. However, spring,summer loss rates also increased when food supplies were good, suggesting that despite high food availability, emigration of juvenile and subadult males increased when intrasexual competition was intense. Recruitment rate of females decreased with increasing female density. After a good seed crop, more subadult females dispersed, but their settlement success (recruitment) was lower at high female density. 6Seed crop size positively affected red squirrel densities through increased reproduction, immigration and adult survival of males, but density-dependent reproduction and within-sex density-dependent recruitment of locally born juveniles and dispersing subadults limit the fluctuations in numbers and regulate densities in winter,early spring, as well as in summer. [source] Non-independence of demographic parameters: positive density-dependent fecundity in eaglesJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2008Miguel Ferrer Summary 1Using information on the Doñana population of Spanish imperial eagles Aquila adalberti from 1959 to 2004, we present strong empirical support to theoretical models on the regulation of population trajectories by the relationships between breeder mortality and floater availability. 2During the study period, the eagle population showed three distinct phases: (i) a population increase with negative density-dependent fecundity; (ii) a period of stability without any relationship between density and fecundity; and (iii) a population decrease with a positive relationship between density and fecundity. 3A dramatic increase in annual adult mortality due to an increase in poisoning in hunting areas surrounding the Doñana National Park was recorded. The use of poison against generalist predators accounted for more than 54% of the total number of breeding eagles found dead since 1990, increasing annual adult mortality from 6·07 to 12·01%. 4This high mortality reduced the population annually by 6% during the 1992,2004 period. Also, the population changed from a negative to a positive relationship between density and fecundity (Allee effect). These trends made the population approach extinction due to the double effect of increasing breeder mortality and low availability of floaters. 5A supplementary feeding programme established in 1990 did not increase fecundity because it was a consequence of high adult mortality rather than low food availability. The high mortality of adults increased the risk of breeding failure and also decreased the availability of floaters, decreasing the likelihood of mate substitution. 6Synthesis and applications. The main target in species conservation management plans is often a single demographic parameter (typically, fecundity in raptor populations). Our research demonstrates, however, that demographic parameters must not be considered as independent variables when formulating management programmes. The essential relationship between adult mortality and the availability of floaters must be better understood to avoid the risk of implementing inefficient management strategies. Although fecundity was low in this eagle population, it was a result of high adult mortality rates. Consequently, management must aim to correct the unusual mortality and recover the floater population. [source] Combined effects of fisheries and climate on a migratory long-lived marine predatorJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2008V. Rolland Summary 1The impact of climate on marine ecosystems is now well documented, but remains complex. Climate change may interact with human activities to effect population dynamics. In addition, in migratory species conditions are different between the breeding and wintering grounds, resulting in more complex dynamics. All these possible effects should be considered to predict the future of endangered species, but very few studies have investigated such combined interactions. 2As a case study, we assessed the relative impact of fisheries and of oceanographic conditions in breeding and wintering sites on adult survival and breeding success of a population of the endangered black-browed albatross Thalassarche melanophrys in the Kerguelen Islands, Southern Indian Ocean. This study was based on long-term monitoring of individually marked individuals (1979,2005) and identification by tracking studies and band recoveries of the oceanic feeding zones used during breeding and non-breeding seasons. 3Breeding success was variable until 1997 and then declined gradually, from 0·88 to 0·48 chicks per egg laid. It was favoured by positive sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and trawl fishery during the breeding period, whereas it was negatively affected by positive SSTA around Tasmania, where the species winters. Adult survival was 0·918 ± 0·004 on average and increased with SSTA during incubation, but decreased significantly with high tuna longlining effort in the wintering zone. 4Our analyses show that demographic parameters were influenced by both climate and fisheries in both breeding and wintering grounds, but with different effect size. Black-browed albatross breeding success was more favoured by trawlers' offal and discards than by any of the seasonally/spatially oceanographic conditions, whereas their survival was equally affected by tuna longline fishery through incidental by-catch and spring SSTA. 5Synthesis and applications. Our work underlines that a comprehensive knowledge of the life history of a species in all the habitats used is important to disentangle the respective roles of environmental conditions and human factors on population dynamics. Identification of these effects is required when proposing effective conservation measures, because the conservation of threatened species may depend on their wintering country's exclusive economic zones. [source] Linking resources with demography to understand resource limitation for bearsJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2007MELISSA J. REYNOLDS-HOGLAND Summary 1,Identifying the resources that limit growth of animal populations is essential for effective conservation; however, resource limitation is difficult to quantify. Recent advances in geographical information systems (GIS) and resource modelling can be combined with demographic modelling to yield insights into resource limitation. 2,Using long-term data on a population of black bears Ursus americanus, we evaluated competing hypotheses about whether availability of hard mast (acorns and nuts) or soft mast (fleshy fruits) limited bears in the southern Appalachians, USA, during 1981,2002. The effects of clearcutting on habitat quality were also evaluated. Annual survival, recruitment and population growth rate were estimated using capture,recapture data from 101 females. The availability of hard mast, soft mast and clearcuts was estimated with a GIS, as each changed through time as a result of harvest and succession, and then availabilities were incorporated as covariates for each demographic parameter. 3,The model with the additive availability of hard mast and soft mast across the landscape predicted survival and population growth rate. Availability of young clearcuts predicted recruitment, but not population growth or survival. 4,Availability of hard mast stands across the landscape and availability of soft mast across the landscape were more important than hard mast production and availability of soft mast in young clearcuts, respectively. 5,Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that older stands, which support high levels of hard mast and moderate levels of soft mast, should be maintained to sustain population growth of bears in the southern Appalachians. Simultaneously, the acreage of intermediate aged stands (10,25 years), which support very low levels of both hard mast and soft mast, should be minimized. The approach used in this study has broad application for wildlife management and conservation. State and federal wildlife agencies often possess long-term data on both resource availability and capture,recapture for wild populations. Combined, these two data types can be used to estimate survival, recruitment, population growth, elasticities of vital rates and the effects of resource availability on demographic parameters. Hence data that are traditionally used to understand population trends can be used to evaluate how and why demography changes over time. [source] Age-based life history parameters and status assessments of by-catch species (Lethrinus borbonicus, Lethrinus microdon, Pomacanthus maculosus and Scolopsis taeniatus) in the southern Arabian GulfJOURNAL OF APPLIED ICHTHYOLOGY, Issue 3 2010E. Grandcourt Summary Life history and demographic parameters for Lethrinus borbonicus, Lethrinus microdon, Pomacanthus maculosus and Scolopsis taeniatus in the southern Arabian Gulf were estimated using a combination of size frequency, biological and size-at-age data. Defined structural increments consisting of alternating translucent and opaque bands in transverse sections of sagittal otoliths were validated as annuli. The maximum age estimates ranged from 5 years for Scolopsis taeniatus to 36 years for Pomacanthus maculosus. The size-at-age relationships were highly asymptotic in form with the majority of growth being achieved early in life. There were significant differences in the growth characteristics between sexes for Pomacanthus maculosus, with males approaching a larger asymptotic size at a faster rate than females. With the exception of Scolopsis taeniatus, the mean age at which fish became vulnerable to capture was lower than the mean age at first sexual maturity. The stocks of L. microdon, P. maculosus and S. taeniatus were exploited within sustainable limits, conversely, L. borbonicus was found to be overexploited and recruitment overfishing may have occurred as the relative spawner biomass per recruit was below 30% of the unexploited state. [source] Harvesting of the Radial Artery: Subfasciotomy or Full Skeletonization: A Comparative StudyJOURNAL OF CARDIAC SURGERY, Issue 4 2008Nezihi Kucukarslan M.D. We compared the early results of this technique with those of the RA graft harvested as a pedicle in the conventional fashion. Methods: The study patients have been selected from the patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) using the RA graft harvested either with a long posterior fasciotomy (group 1) or as a whole with a pedicle in the classical manner (group 2). Only the patients with a flow study have been included. The flow index was described as the bleeding amount of the RA in a minute per body surface area (mL/m2 min). The flow index has been performed before and after fasciotomy in group 1, and after full skeletonization in group 2. The clinical and demographic parameters and flow indices were measured and compared between the groups, and in group 1, before and after fasciotomy. Results: From 218 patients with CABG using the RA between January 1998 and August 2005, a total of 57 patients were recruited into the study. Group 1 consisted of 25 patients. Thirty-two patients constituted group 2. Subfascial dissection of the RA increased the blood flow index from 48 ± 20 mL/m2 min to 51 ± 19 mL/m2 min (p < 0.001). The comparison of the clinical, perioperative characteristics of the patients was not different between the groups. Conclusions: The necessity of total skeletonization of the RA should not be the only option when the aim is to reduce the spasm. While subfascial dissection (sympathectomy) of the pediculed RA alone provides a satisfactory increase in the blood flow index, it also reduces the manipulation time as well as the risk of injury to the graft. [source] Climate and landscape correlates of African lion (Panthera leo) demographyAFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2010Gastone G. Celesia Abstract Although many studies have documented aspects of lion ecology, they have generally focused on single sites, leaving broader-scaled factors unanalysed. We assessed range-wide effects of eight biotic and 26 abiotic variables on lion distribution and ecology, based on data compiled from published sources on lion population ecology in 27 protected areas in Africa. Lion pride size and composition were independent of lion density; lion density and home range size were inversely related; and lion density was positively related to rainfall, soil nutrients and annual mean temperature, with some interactive effects between rainfall and soil nutrients. Lion demography was associated most strongly with rainfall, temperature and landscape features. Herbivore biomass and lion density were correlated in univariate regression analyses. However, because herbivore biomass was also related to rainfall and temperature, hierarchical partitioning (HP) allowed us to evaluate independent effects of each variable on lion demography revealing that herbivore biomass had negligible independent contributions. HP indicated that climatic parameters explained 62% of overall variance in demographic parameters, whereas landscape features explained only 32%; climatic parameters were fairly balanced between effects of temperature (34%) and rainfall (28%). Prey (herbivore) biomass is important for lion survival, but its effects appear secondary to environmental factors. Résumé Bien que de nombreuses études apportent des informations sur des aspects de l'écologie des lions, elles se sont généralement focalisées sur des sites individuels, laissant de côté les facteurs à plus grande échelle. Nous avons analysé les effets à grande échelle de huit variables biotiques et de 26 variables abiotiques de la distribution et de l'écologie du lion, en nous fondant sur des données compilées à partir de publications portant sur l'écologie de populations de lions dans 27 aires protégées africaines. La taille et la composition des troupes de lions étaient indépendantes de leur densité; la densité et la taille du territoire des lions étaient inversement liées; et la densité des lions était directement liée aux chutes de pluies, aux nutriments du sol et à la moyenne annuelle des températures, certains effets interactifs étant observés entre les chutes de pluies et les nutriments du sol. La démographie des lions était surtout liée aux chutes de pluies, à la température et à certaines caractéristiques du paysage. La biomasse des herbivores et la densité des lions étaient liées dans les analyses de régressions univariées. Cependant, comme la biomasse des herbivores est aussi liée aux chutes de pluies et aux températures, la partition hiérarchique (PH) nous a permis d'évaluer les effets indépendants de chaque variable sur la démographie des lions, ce qui révèle que la biomasse des herbivores, prise indépendamment, représentait une contribution négligeable. La PH indiquait que les paramètres climatiques expliquaient 62% de la variance globale des paramètres démographiques, alors que les caractéristiques du paysage n'en expliquaient que 32%; les paramètres climatiques étaient en assez bon équilibre entre les effets de la température (34%) et ceux des chutes de pluies (28%). La biomasse des proies (herbivores) est importante pour la survie des lions, mais ses effets semblent secondaires par rapport à ceux des facteurs environnementaux. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||