Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
Demographic Change (demographic + change)
Selected AbstractsThe IMF on Policies Responding to Demographic ChangePOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, Issue 4 2004Article first published online: 15 DEC 200 In its semiannual report World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund presents its analysis of major economic policy issues and assessment of economic prospects, along with more detailed treatment of a selected current topic. The special topic in the 300-page report published in September 2004 is "The Global Demographic Transition," treated in Chapter III of the document. An excerpt from the section of that chapter titled "Policies to Meet the Challenges of Global Demographic Change" is reproduced below with the permission of the IMF. Footnotes and the figure included in the excerpt have been renumbered. The title of Chapter III is "How Will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy?" The tone of the discussion is set by the opening epigraph, a quotation from the UK's 1949 Report of the Royal Commission on Population: "It seems possible that a society in which the proportion of young people is diminishing will become dangerously unprogressive, falling behind other communities not only in technical efficiency and economic welfare, but in intellectual and artistic achievement as well." Accordingly, the focus of the analysis, like that of the commentary by US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reprinted in the preceding Document item in this issue, is on the consequences of population aging and on the desirable policy responses to that process. The discussion broadly parallels Greenspan's but with a wider compass, including some consideration of the effects of aging in developing countries. It emphasizes the need for counteracting adverse effects of demographic change through a combination of policy measures, since "the size of the reforms" (such as increasing labor force participation, inducing later retirement, and attracting more immigrants) "that would be needed in any single area [is] sufficiently large that they would be politically and economically difficult to achieve." [source] Demographic Change and Economic Growth in AsiaASIAN ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW, Issue 1 2009David E. BLOOM J11; O11 Abstract Trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and macroeconomic policy only accounted for part of the 1965,1990 growth performance in East Asia. Subsequently, demographic change was shown to be a missing factor in explaining the East Asian growth premium. Since 1990, East Asia has undertaken major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. We reexamine the role of the demographic transition in contributing to cross-country differences in economic growth through to 2005, with a particular focus on East Asia. We highlight the need for policy to offset potential negative effects of aging populations in the future. [source] Demographic Change and Asian Dynamics: Social and Political ImplicationsASIAN ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW, Issue 1 2009Takashi INOGUCHI J11; D63; F2; H55; H56 This article describes the demographic change and its social and political implications in East and South-East Asia with a trajectory up to 2050. It selectively touches on inequalities, migration, social policy, and international security. In the course of this exercise, I present two hypotheses: one relating to the formation of the new middle class, and the other relating to the geriatric peace argument. The first hypothesis posits that when the growing inequalities in terms of per capita income aggravate the sense of happiness among the low- and middle-income strata as contrasted to high-income strata, the formation of a new middle class becomes more difficult. The second hypothesis posits that when the aging population carries a large demographic weight, it tends to be transformed into strong political voice, which is, in turn, translated into larger government spending on social policy items often accompanied by a likely decline in the defense expenditure budget. These hypotheses paint a provocative picture of East and South-East Asia in the next four decades, especially in the wake of the deepening economic difficulties prevailing over the entire globe. I present these hypotheses for further conceptual elaboration and empirical analysis. [source] Demographic change and the demand for environmental regulationJOURNAL OF POLICY ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2002Matthew E. Kahn Environmental regulation in the United States has increased pollution abatement expenditure as a percentage of gross national product from 1.7 percent in 1972 to an estimated 2.6 percent in the year 2000. This rise in regulation has coincided with demographic and economic changes that include rising educational levels, a growing minority population, an aging population, and decreasing employment in polluting industries. This paper examines whether these trends have contributed to increasing aggregate demand for environmental regulation. New evidence on voting on environmental ballots in California, local government environmental expenditures across the United States, and 25 years of congressional voting on environmental issues is examined to document the demographic correlates of environmental support. Minorities and the more educated are more pro-green, whereas manufacturing workers oppose environmental regulation. While demographics help explain observed differences in environmental support and thus can help predict long trends in the "average voter's" environmentalism, environmentalism varies substantially year to year unrelated to population demographics. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management. [source] Child Poverty in Britain and the United States*THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 488 2003Richard Dickens Child poverty rose sharply in Britain and the US in the period preceding the Blair and Clinton governments, so that over a third of children were in poverty in both countries. Demographic change, falls in work and increasing wage inequality all contributed to this rise in Britain, with benefit changes having an offsetting effect. In the US, demographic and wages changes were the drivers. Both administrations acted with a range of welfare reforms aimed at increasing work incentives and, in Britain benefits for those not working were also raised. Child poverty fell under the Blair and Clinton governments; with work and benefit changes explaining most of the fall in Britain and work and demographic change the US fall. [source] POPULATION AGING AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: ADDRESSING COMPETING CLAIMS OF DISTRIBUTIVE JUSTICEDEVELOPING WORLD BIOETHICS, Issue 1 2007MICHAL ENGELMAN ABSTRACT To date, bioethics and health policy scholarship has given little consideration to questions of aging and intergenerational justice in the developing world. Demographic changes are precipitating rapid population aging in developing nations, however, and ethical issues regarding older people's claim to scarce healthcare resources must be addressed. This paper posits that the traditional arguments about generational justice and age-based rationing of healthcare resources, which were developed primarily in more industrialized nations, fail to adequately address the unique challenges facing older persons in developing nations. Existing philosophical approaches to age-based resource allocation underemphasize the importance of older persons for developing countries and fail to adequately consider the rights and interests of older persons in these settings. Ultimately, the paper concludes that the most appropriate framework for thinking about generational justice in developing nations is a rights-based approach that allows for the interests of all age groups, including the oldest, to be considered in the determination of health resource allocation. [source] Demography and population dynamics of Drosera anglica and D. rotundifoliaJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2004J.-F. Nordbakken Summary 1We studied demography and population dynamics of the sympatric perennial herbs Drosera anglica and D. rotundifolia on a boreal bog in SE Norway. Dry mass of 2872 D. anglica plants and 2467 D. rotundifolia plants (estimated from field morphological measurements) was used to classify plants into five species-specific size classes. Demographic changes within these two populations were followed from 1995 to 1999, and within segments (quartiles) along the water table gradient and the peat productivity gradient. 2Mortality was strongly size dependent, and varied between years, for both species; it was high for seedlings, low for the smallest mature rosettes and increased again for the largest mature rosettes. The proportion of fertile rosettes increased with increasing rosette size. Fecundity varied considerably between years, but little relative to gradient position. 3Growth rate (,) was > 1, except in the second year, when it fell to 0.572 for D. anglica and 0.627 for D. rotundifolia . For D. anglica small, but significant, differences were found between the two extremities of the water table gradient, and for D. rotundifolia between the second and the uppermost quartile. There was a tendency for D. anglica populations to have a lower growth rate in the most productive sites, whereas D. rotundifolia grew less on both low and high peat productivity. Elasticity analysis showed that stasis and size increase (primarily within mature stages) made major contributions to , for D. anglica in all years. 4The variance in population growth rate (var ,) was high between years, and higher for D. anglica than for D. rotundifolia , while the variance between quartiles along the two main gradients was low. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analyses revealed that for both species, differences in probabilities of transitions within mature stages, and in growth to larger stages, contributed most to var ,. 5The effects of global warming are uncertain: drier growing seasons would affect Drosera populations negatively, while initially positive responses to a wetter climate may be balanced by competition from increased Sphagnum growth. [source] The labour market and household income inequality in South Africa: existing evidence and new panel dataJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 6 2001Murray Leibbrandt South Africa's very high Gini coefficient has always served as the starkest indicator of the country's extreme inequality. The racial legacy has always been highlighted in explaining this inequality. This paper presents evidence that between race contributions to inequality have declined from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s. However, they are still considerably higher than comparative international figures. The racially rigged labour market has always been assumed to operate as the key force underlying these changing inequality patterns and the paper presents findings for more formal decompositions of the linkage between the labour market and household inequality. This work confirms the dominance of the labour market in driving total South African, African and even KwaZulu-Natal inequality. However, the contribution of wage income is uneven across these different levels of aggregation and across time; suggesting complex patterns of inequality generation. The following lengthy section of the paper uses a panel data set to measure and explain the mobility patterns of a sample of African households in Kwazulu-Natal. It is found that there was less income mobility at the top and the bottom of the distribution than in the middle and overall there was an increase in income differentiation. Simple mobility profiling and more complex modelling confirm the importance of labour market changes in influencing movement of real adult equivalent income of households as well as mobility across deciles, across poverty lines. Demographic changes are also seen to be very important. The paper concludes with a summary and some suggestions for further work. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Roles of Vitamins E and C on Neurodegenerative Diseases and Cognitive PerformanceNUTRITION REVIEWS, Issue 10 2002Antonio Martin Demographic changes, together with improvements in nutrition, general health, and life expectancy, will greatly change the social and economic structures of most industrialized and developing countries in the next 50 years. Extended life expectancy has increased the number of chronic illnesses and disabilities, including cognitive impairments. Inflammatory processes and vascular dysfunctions appear to play important roles in the pathogenesis of age-associated pathologies including Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease. A large body of evidence shows that both vitamins E and C are important for the central nervous system and that a decrease in their concentrations causes structural and functional damage to the cells. Several studies reveal a link between diets rich in fruits and vegetables containing generous amounts of vitamins E and C and lower incidence of certain chronic diseases. [source] Reasons U.S. Women Have Abortions: Quantitative and Qualitative PerspectivesPERSPECTIVES ON SEXUAL AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH, Issue 3 2005B. Lawrence CONTEXT: Understanding women's reasons for having abortions can inform public debate and policy regarding abortion and unwanted pregnancy. Demographic changes over the last two decades highlight the need for a reassessment of why women decide to have abortions. METHODS: In 2004, a structured survey was completed by 1,209 abortion patients at 11 large providers, and in-depth interviews were conducted with 38 women at four sites. Bivariate analyses examined differences in the reasons for abortion across subgroups, and multivariate logistic regression models assessed associations between respondent characteristics and reported reasons. RESULTS: The reasons most frequently cited were that having a child would interfere with a woman's education, work or ability to care for dependents (74%); that she could not afford a baby now (73%); and that she did not want to be a single mother or was having relationship problems (48%). Nearly four in 10 women said they had completed their childbearing, and almost one-third were not ready to have a child. Fewer than 1% said their parents' or partners' desire for them to have an abortion was the most important reason. Younger women often reported that they were unprepared for the transition to motherhood, while older women regularly cited their responsibility to dependents. CONCLUSIONS: The decision to have an abortion is typically motivated by multiple, diverse and interrelated reasons. The themes of responsibility to others and resource limitations, such as financial constraints and lack of partner support, recurred throughout the study. [source] Age, period and cohort influences on beer, wine and spirits consumption trends in the US National Alcohol SurveysADDICTION, Issue 9 2004William C. Kerr ABSTRACT Aims To estimate the separate influences of age, period and cohort on the consumption of beer wine and spirits in the United States. Design Linear age,period,cohort models controlling for demographic change with extensive specification testing. Setting US general population 1979,2000. Measurements Monthly average of past-year consumption of beer, wine and spirits in five National Alcohol Surveys. Findings The strongest cohort effects are found for spirits; cohorts born before 1940 are found to have significantly higher consumption than those born after 1946, with especially high spirits consumption for men in the pre-1930s cohorts. Significant cohort effects are also found for beer with elevated consumption in the 1946,65 cohorts for men but in the pre-1940 cohorts for women. Significant negative effects of age are found for beer and spirits consumption, although not for wine. Significant period effects are found for men's beer and wine consumption and for women's spirits consumption. Increased educational attainment in the population over time is associated with reduced beer consumption and increased wine consumption. Conclusions Changing cohort demographics are found to have significant effects on beverage-specific consumption, indicating the importance of controlling for these effects in the evaluation of alcohol policy effectiveness and the potential for substantial improvement in the forecasting of future beverage-specific consumption trends, alcohol dependence treatment demand and morbidity and mortality outcomes. [source] Infrastructure and Rural Development: US and EU Perspectives Infrastruktur und Entwicklung des ländlichen Raums: Perspektiven aus den USA und der EU Infrastructures et développement rural : Perspectives aux États-Unis et dans l'Union européenneEUROCHOICES, Issue 1 2008David Blandford Infrastructure and Rural Development: US and EU Perspectives Infrastructural development remains a cornerstone of rural development policy in both the United States and Europe. It is evident that rural development objectives differ, but similar policy measures are used. The economic rationale for infrastructure development centres on efficiency and creation of competitive advantage. Policy intervention is justified because of the added costs of infrastructure provision in remote, sparsely populated areas. Although this policy focus does not guarantee success, regions leading in economic development typically have better physical infrastructure. In the United States, policy must adapt to challenges posed by an ageing rural infrastructure and demographic change that will increase demands on social infrastructure such as housing and health facilities. There will be greater local responsibility for funding, and expanded use of public/private partnerships. In the European Union, the major challenge is in redirecting resources to new member states, where there is urgent need for both large new investments in transport networks and small investments to improve local access. Although two current options for funding these diverse needs focus on European policies only, investments in non-farm physical capital and public infrastructure cannot be sustained without active national policies to complement the European efforts, perhaps through co-financing requirements. Infrastructures et développement rural : Perspectives aux États-Unis et dans l'Union européenne Le développement des infrastructures demeure un pilier de la politique de développement rural aux États-Unis comme dans l'Union européenne. Les objectifs de développement rural diffèrent bien évidemment mais des mesures semblables sont employées. La justification économique du développement des infrastructures repose sur l'efficience et la création d'avantages concurrentiels. L'intervention publique est justifiée par les coûts supplémentaires des infrastructures dans les zones éloignées à population clairsemée. Bien que ce type de politique ne garantisse pas le succès, les régions en avance de développement économique ont en général de meilleures infrastructures physiques. Aux États-Unis, la politique soit s'adapter aux défis que posent le vieillissement des infrastructures rurales et l'évolution démographique qui va augmenter la demande d'infrastructures sociales telles que les services de santé et de logement. La responsabilité du financement local va augmenter et les partenariats public/privé vont se développer. Dans l'Union européenne, le principal défi est de réorienter les ressources vers les nouveaux pays membres qui ont un besoin urgent de nouveaux investissement d'ampleur dans les réseaux de transport et d'investissement de plus faible ampleur dans l'amélioration des accès locaux. Deux options actuelles de financement de ces divers besoins se concentrent sur les seules politiques européennes, mais les investissements dans le capital physique non agricole et dans les infrastructures publiques ne peuvent pas se poursuivre sans des politiques nationales actives complémentant les efforts fournis au niveau européen, peut-être à travers des mécanismes de co-financement. Infrastruktur und Entwicklung des ländlichen Raums: Perspektiven aus den USA und der EU Bei der Entwicklung der Infrastruktur handelt es sich nach wie vor sowohl in den USA als auch in Europa um einen Eckpfeiler in der Politik zur Entwicklung des ländlichen Raums. Es ist offensichtlich, dass sich die Ziele bei der Entwicklung des ländlichen Raums unterscheiden, die Politikmaßnahmen ähneln sich jedoch. Die wirtschaftliche Begründung für die Entwicklung der Infrastruktur zielt auf die Effizienz und das Schaffen von Wettbewerbsvorteilen ab. Politikeingriffe sind gerechtfertigt, da die Bereitstellung von Infrastruktur in entlegenen, dünn besiedelten Gebieten höhere Kosten verursacht. Obgleich dieser Schwerpunkt der Politik den Erfolg noch nicht garantiert, verfügen die wirtschaftlich am weitesten entwickelten Regionen typischerweise über eine bessere physische Infrastruktur. In den USA muss sich die Politik an die Herausforderungen anpassen, welche eine in die Jahre gekommene Infrastruktur im ländlichen Raum und der demografische Wandel mit sich bringen, und wodurch neue Anforderungen an die soziale Infrastruktur, wie z.B. Wohnungsbau und Gesundheitseinrichtungen, gestellt werden. Bei der Finanzierung werden die Kommunen stärker in die Verantwortung genommen, und öffentlich-private Partnerschaften werden an Bedeutung gewinnen. In der EU besteht die größte Herausforderung darin, Ressourcen zu den neuen Mitgliedstaaten umzuverteilen, wo sowohl neue Großinvestitionen in die Transportnetzwerke als auch kleinere Investitionen zur Verbesserung des lokalen Zugangs dringend benötigt werden. Obwohl sich die beiden im Moment vorhandenen Optionen zur Finanzierung dieser vielfältigen Bedürfnisse ausschließlich auf europäische Politikmaßnahmen konzentrieren, können die Investitionen in außerlandwirtschaftliches physisches Kapital und in die öffentliche Infrastruktur nicht ohne wirksame Politikmaßnahmen auf nationaler Ebene (z.B. die Pflicht zur Kofinanzierung) als Ergänzung zu den Bemühungen auf europäischer Ebene aufrecht erhalten werden. [source] Typologies of Advantage and Disadvantage: Socio-economic Outcomes in Australian Metropolitan CitiesGEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, Issue 4 2005SCOTT BAUM Abstract Australia's metropolitan cities have undergone significant social, economic and demographic change over the past several decades. In terms of socio-economic advantage and disadvantage these changes, which are often associated with globalisation, wider economic and technological restructuring, the changing demographics of the population and shifts in public policy are not evenly dispersed across cities, but represent a range of often contrasting outcomes. The current paper develops a typology of socio-economic advantage and disadvantage for locations across Australian metropolitan cities. More specifically, the paper takes a range of Australian Bureau of Statistics data and uses a model-based approach with clustering of data represented by a parameterised Gaussian mixture model and discriminant analysis utilised to consider the differences between the clusters. These clusters form the basis of a typology representing the range of socio-economic and demographic outcomes at the local community level. [source] Current situation of German care homesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OLDER PEOPLE NURSING, Issue 4 2008Barbara Klein Dipl-Soz, Dr. Phil Aim., The aim of this paper is to explore the situation of and current developments in the German care home sector. Background., Germany, like other Western countries, faces demographic change and subsequently tries to develop structures and processes to achieve a care system which can tackle the increasing number of people in need of care with a variety of quality services. Policy strives to set up structures and instruments to enhance the quality of service provision. Discussion., Figures show that the structures in the care sector are changing in favour to increased privatization of homes, a slight increase in size and improved building structures. In order to tackle the expected changes, a mix of low and high skilled qualification and new job profiles arise in the care sector. Other changes to be observed are the development of new living arrangements and the utilization of new technologies to support the care process. Conclusion., This contribution looks at the socio-demographic changes in care, the statutory developments and the structures of care homes as well as current discussions on future developments. [source] Social security and the challenge of demographic changeINTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SECURITY REVIEW, Issue 3-4 2010David E. Bloom Guest editor First page of article [source] Genetic structure of the European polecat (Mustela putorius) and its implication for conservation strategiesJOURNAL OF ZOOLOGY, Issue 1 2006C. Pertoldi Abstract During the last century, the European polecat Mustela putorius populations in most of Europe declined and survived in fragmented patches, because of habitat alterations and direct persecution. To assess the genetic consequences of the demographic decline and to describe the spatial pattern of genetic diversity, 250 polecats sampled at seven localities from five European countries , Poland, Denmark (southern Denmark and northern Denmark), Spain, Belgium (eastern and western) and the Netherlands , were screened by means of nine microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity estimated by mean expected heterozygosity (HE) and allelic richness (AR) were moderately high within populations [range: 0.50 (northern Denmark) ,HE,0.64 (Poland) and 1.33,AR,7.80] as compared with other carnivores and mustelids. Bottleneck tests suggested that polecat populations in southern Denmark and Poland have declined recently and populations from northern Denmark and the Netherlands have expanded recently, whereas the remaining populations did not show any sign of demographic change. Recent demographic changes could suggest that some of the populations are still not in equilibrium, which could partly explain the relatively high genetic variability observed in polecat populations despite the drastic decline in population size observed in several European countries. A significant heterozygote deficiency [FIS=0.19; 0.01,95% confidence interval (CI),0.32] suggests substructuring within the total European sample. Partitioning of the genetic variation among sampling locations (FST=0.14; 0.06,95% CI,0.23) and pairwise FST between localities (range: 0.01,FST,0.37) without any correlation with the geographic distances between localities were found, suggesting a recent divergence and a restriction of gene flow between populations and the action of genetic drift. An assignment test showed that the Polish and the northern Danish populations were the most unique, whereas the other populations were partially admixed. Factorial component analysis tests indicate a subdivision of the total sample into two distinct groups: one including the samples from Poland and the two Danish localities and the second group comprising the remaining localities investigated. The observed pattern of genetic differentiation is suggested to be due to two main routes of recolonization after the last glacial period. To compare the results obtained with microsatellite data, the most variable region of the mitochondrial DNA (d-loop) was sequenced and different phylogenetic reconstructions and genetic diversity analyses based on nucleotide (,) and haplotype diversity (h) measures within populations were performed using a subsample of populations. The lack of well-defined geographical structure, as well as the reduced level of mitochondrial DNA variability (,: 0.00274±0.00038; h: 0.876±0.028) that was found, has been previously reported in several studies on different carnivores and supports the hypothesis of post-glacial recolonization from southern or eastern refugees of Europe as suggested by the microsatellite data. Implications for conservation strategies of the polecat at the European level are discussed. [source] Sustaining appearances: sustainable development and the fisheries of Lake VictoriaNATURAL RESOURCES FORUM, Issue 3 2001Kevin Crean Abstract The fisheries of Lake Victoria have undergone a major transformation over the last three decades. The character of the lake has been subject to the influence of many powerful factors including: substantial increases in fishing effort; growing integration into the global fish market; acceleration of anthropogenic activities in the catchment area; demographic change; the influence of adverse shifts in the climate; and introduction of exotic plant and animal species. The task of managing the lake's resources, therefore, has never been more daunting. This article argues that, in most cases, the authorities charged with achieving the goal of sustainable development for the fishery, have failed to address the symptoms,let alone the origins,of the current unsustainable tendencies embedded in the social, economic and political fabric of Lake Victoria's riparian States. It is these factors that directly impinge upon the success of management initiatives for the lake. The article argues that if sustainable development is to be achieved, then stakeholders must act in concert, eliminate unsustainable practices and reprogramme development plans to focus on realistic goals. A possible way forward will be to develop a participatory management system. [source] Interpreting incidence trends for treated end-stage renal disease: Implications for evaluating disease control in AustraliaNEPHROLOGY, Issue 4 2004JOHN H STEWART SUMMARY: Background: Five sources of change modify trends in incidence of treated end-stage renal disease (ESRD): (i) demography; (ii) disease control, comprising prevention and treatment of progressive kidney disease; (iii) competing risks, which encompass dying from untreated uraemia or non-renal comorbidity; (iv) lead-time bias; and (v) classification bias. Thus, rising crude incidence of treated ESRD may conceal effective disease control when there has been demographic change, lessening competing risks, or the introduction of bias. Methods: Age-specific incidences of treated ESRD in Australia were calculated from Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant (ANZDATA) Registry data by indigenous/non-indigenous status (all causes) and by primary renal disease (non-indigenous only) for two successive decades, 1982,1991 and 1992,2001. Results: We postulate that less competing risks explained much of the increase in treated ESRD in the elderly and Indigenous Australians. The increase in glomerulonephritic ESRD in non-indigenous Australians could be ascribed mainly to immigration from non-European countries. There was no significant change in incidence of treated ESRD in Indigenous or non-indigenous persons aged less than 25 years, in non-indigenous persons aged 25,64 years for ESRD caused by hereditary polycystic disease or hypertension, or in type 1 diabetics aged over 55 years. End-stage renal disease from analgesic nephropathy had declined. The increase in treated ESRD caused by type 2 diabetic nephropathy appeared to be multifactorial. Lead-time/length bias and less competing risks may have concealed a small favourable trend in other primary renal diseases. Conclusion: Whether recent disease control measures have had an impact on incidence of treated ESRD is not yet certain, but seems more likely than implied by previous reports. [source] Secular trends in socio-economic status and the implications for preterm birthPAEDIATRIC & PERINATAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Issue 3 2006John M. D. Thompson Summary The rate of preterm birth in the developed world has been shown to be increasing, in part attributable to obstetric intervention. It has been suggested that this may be a differential increase between socio-economic groups. We aimed to assess whether the preterm rate in Norway is different in socio-economic groups defined by maternal education, and to determine the extent to which a difference is attributable to a socio-economic differential in obstetrical intervention, in terms of caesarean section or induction of labour. We used data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway from 1980 to 1998 with preterm rate as the outcome and maternal educational level, marital status and obstetric intervention as exposure variables. In multivariable analyses, adjustment was made for maternal age, year of birth and birth order, and secular trends were assessed according to year of birth. The preterm birth rate was highest in the lowest socio-economic group. An increase of 25.2% in the preterm rate was seen over the observation period. No apparent differential was seen in the increase of the crude preterm rates between socio-economic groups, although in multivariable analyses there was a significant interaction between socio-economic group and time, implying a stronger effect of low education towards the end of the observation period attributable to demographic change. In conclusion, the preterm birth rate increased over time, but was mainly due to an increase in obstetric interventions. No closing of the gap between socio-economic groups was observed. [source] Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen HaushaltePERSPEKTIVEN DER WIRTSCHAFTSPOLITIK, Issue 2 2007Helmut Seitz Special attention is given to differences between East and West Germany. Whereas East German state and local governments can expect significant savings from shrinking population size and from shifts in the age structure, subnational government budgets in the West are only slightly affected. Federal government spending will increase due to the rise in spending on the elderly. The results suggest that significant adjustments of public budgets at the expenditure side are necessary in order to cope with the fiscal challenges of demographic change. [source] Testing three evolutionary models of the demographic transition: Patterns of fertility and age at marriage in urban South IndiaAMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2009Mary K. Shenk Over the last three decades many authors have addressed the demographic transition from the perspective of evolutionary theory. Some authors have emphasized parental investment factors such as the costs of raising children, others have emphasized the effects of mortality and other forms of risk, and others have emphasized the biased transmission of cultural norms from people of high status. Yet the literature says little about the relative strengths of each of these types of motivations or about which ones are more likely to serve as the primary impetus for large-scale demographic change. In this paper, I examine how each of these factors has influenced the demographic transition in urban South India during the course of the 20th century using two measures of fertility transition: number of surviving children and age at marriage. I find that investment-related, risk-related, and cultural transmission predictors all have significant individual effects on the outcome variables, which persist when they are entered in combination. When the three types of predictors are compared, however, investment-related models appear to provide more robust explanations for patterns in both fertility and age of marriage. Am. J. Hum. Biol., 2009. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] The IMF on Policies Responding to Demographic ChangePOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, Issue 4 2004Article first published online: 15 DEC 200 In its semiannual report World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund presents its analysis of major economic policy issues and assessment of economic prospects, along with more detailed treatment of a selected current topic. The special topic in the 300-page report published in September 2004 is "The Global Demographic Transition," treated in Chapter III of the document. An excerpt from the section of that chapter titled "Policies to Meet the Challenges of Global Demographic Change" is reproduced below with the permission of the IMF. Footnotes and the figure included in the excerpt have been renumbered. The title of Chapter III is "How Will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy?" The tone of the discussion is set by the opening epigraph, a quotation from the UK's 1949 Report of the Royal Commission on Population: "It seems possible that a society in which the proportion of young people is diminishing will become dangerously unprogressive, falling behind other communities not only in technical efficiency and economic welfare, but in intellectual and artistic achievement as well." Accordingly, the focus of the analysis, like that of the commentary by US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reprinted in the preceding Document item in this issue, is on the consequences of population aging and on the desirable policy responses to that process. The discussion broadly parallels Greenspan's but with a wider compass, including some consideration of the effects of aging in developing countries. It emphasizes the need for counteracting adverse effects of demographic change through a combination of policy measures, since "the size of the reforms" (such as increasing labor force participation, inducing later retirement, and attracting more immigrants) "that would be needed in any single area [is] sufficiently large that they would be politically and economically difficult to achieve." [source] On the Tasks of a Population Commission: A 1971 Statement by Donald RumsfeldPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, Issue 3 2003Article first published online: 20 APR 200 In its most familiar form, analytic assessment of the impact of demographic change on human affairs is the product of a decentralized cottage industry: individual scholars collecting information, thinking about its meaning, testing hypotheses, and publishing their findings. Guidance through the power of the purse and through institutional design that creates and sustains cooperating groups of researchers can impose some order and coherence on such spontaneous activity. But the sum total of the result may lack balance and leave important aspects of relevant issues inadequately explored. Even when research findings are picked up by the media and reach a broader public, the haphazardness of that process helps further to explain why the salience of population change to human welfare and its importance in public policymaking are poorly understood. The syndrome is not unique to the field of population, but the typically long time-lags with which aggregate population change affects economic and social phenomena make it particularly difficult for the topic to claim public attention. A time-tested, if less than fool-proof remedy is the periodic effort to orchestrate a systematic and thorough examination of the causes, consequences, and policy implications of demographic processes. Because the most potent frame for policymaking is the state, the logical primary locus for such stocktaking is at the country level. The Commission on Population Growth and the American Future was a uniquely ambitious enterprise of this sort. The Commission was established by the US Congress in 1970 as a result of a presidential initiative. Along with the work of two earlier British Royal Commissions on population, this US effort, mutatis mutandis, can serve as a model for in-depth examinations conducted at the national level anywhere. Chaired by John D. Rockefeller 3rd, the Commission submitted its final report to President Richard M. Nixon in March 1972. The background studies to the report were published in seven hefty volumes; an index to these volumes was published in 1975. Reproduced below is a statement to the Commission delivered on April 14, 1971 by Donald Rumsfeld, then Counsellor to President Nixon and in charge of the Office of Economic Opportunity. (Currently, Mr. Rumsfeld serves as US Secretary of Defense.) The brief statement articulates with great clarity the objectives of the Commission and the considerations that prompted them. The text originally appeared in Vol. 7 (pp. 1-3) of the Commission's background reports, which contains the statements at public hearings conducted by the Commission. National efforts toward comprehensive scientific reviews of population issues have their analogs at the international level. Especially notable on that score were the preparatory studies presented at the 1954 Rome and 1965 Belgrade world population conferences. The world population conferences that took place in Bucharest in 1974, in Mexico City in 1984, and in Cairo in 1994 were intergovernmental and political rather than scientific and technical meetings, but they also generated a fair amount of prior research. The year 2004 will break the decadal sequence of large-scale international meetings on population, and apart from the quadrennial congresses of the IUSSP, which showcase the voluntary research offerings of its members, none is being planned for the coming years. A partial substitute will be meetings organized by the UN's regional economic and social commissions. The first of these took place in 2002 for the Asia-Pacific region; the meetings for the other regions will be held in 2003-04. The analytic and technical contribution of these meetings, however, is expected to be at best modest. National efforts of the type carried out 30 years ago by the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future would be all the more salutary. [source] ,Gentrifying the re-urbanisation debate', not vice versa: the uneven socio-spatial implications of changing transitions to adulthood in BrusselsPOPULATION, SPACE AND PLACE (PREVIOUSLY:-INT JOURNAL OF POPULATION GEOGRAPHY), Issue 5 2010Mathieu Van Criekingen Abstract This paper challenges recent views of the sociospatial transformations of inner-city neighbourhoods as ,reurbanisation', for, it is argued, such views tend to divorce the demographic dimensions of the processes at play from their contrasted social class meanings and implications. In addition, it argues that the ongoing demographic diversification of inner cities in the Western world do not stand for the obsolescence of gentrification as a key concept for understanding sociospatial transformations in these places, but rather that this trend alerts to a need to complement existing interpretations of gentrification with new insights into its demographic underpinnings. This point is illustrated via an exploration of the implications of contemporary changes in transition to adulthood for urban sociospatial structures and housing market dynamics in Brussels. Findings stress that the rapid rise of middle-class young adults in non-family households in Brussels' inner neighbourhoods brings about the reinvestment of the existing private rental market, fuelling in turn a process of rental gentrification. Such process exacerbates the competition for residential space in the city, being strongly detrimental to low-income, working-class households. The paper concludes that notwithstanding all local specifics, everywhere at stake is the need to keep a clear sense of the multiple social class stratifications of demographic change in inner neighbourhoods. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Can OECD Countries Afford Demographic Change?THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2007Ross Guest This article provides new calculations on the effects of demographic change on living standards in all 30 OECD countries using the latest demographic projections up to 2050 from the United Nations, World Population Prospects, 2004 Revision. The calculations include several potential dividends that could offset, at least in part, the costs of a lower working age population share. The effects of demographic change calculated here are mechanical in that there is no explicit optimising behaviour. In the worst case scenario, which assumes zero potential dividends and no increase in labour force participation rates, the negative effect of demographic change on living standards among OECD countries over the whole period from 2006 to 2050 ranges from zero to 28 per cent, with an average over all countries of 15.5 per cent. In the best case scenario the average effect is zero. About half of the difference between the best and worst case scenarios is accounted for by higher labour force participation and about half by the potential dividends from demographic change. [source] Would a Decrease in Fertility Be a Threat to Living Standards in Australia?THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2002Ross S. Ross S. Falling rates of fertility in many countries have led to concerns that low fertility is a threat to future living standards. In this article we report simulations of living standards for Australia that take into account the effect of demographic change. These simulations show that reduced fertility would actually increase living standards, albeit by a small amount. We also present projections of government social outlays. These projections suggest that reductions in fertility will have an insignificant or tiny tax-disincentive effect on GDP, thereby reinforcing our conclusion that reductions in fertility are not a threat to future living standards. [source] Child Poverty in Britain and the United States*THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 488 2003Richard Dickens Child poverty rose sharply in Britain and the US in the period preceding the Blair and Clinton governments, so that over a third of children were in poverty in both countries. Demographic change, falls in work and increasing wage inequality all contributed to this rise in Britain, with benefit changes having an offsetting effect. In the US, demographic and wages changes were the drivers. Both administrations acted with a range of welfare reforms aimed at increasing work incentives and, in Britain benefits for those not working were also raised. Child poverty fell under the Blair and Clinton governments; with work and benefit changes explaining most of the fall in Britain and work and demographic change the US fall. [source] A Model Under Siege: A Case Study of the German Retirement Insurance SystemTHE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 461 2000Axel Borsch-Supan This study evaluates the positive and negative features of the German public pension system and discusses three reasons for its increasing perceived and real difficulties: maturation, negative incentive effects, and the problems of demographic change. The German system in its current form may be able to limp through the coming decades but will cease to be the exemplary Bismarckian machine that has created generous retirement incomes at reasonable tax rates. Current policy proposals are insufficient and a few but incisive design changes and some degree of prefunding could rescue the many positive aspects of the German retirement insurance system. [source] Lifetime Net Average Tax Rates in Australia Since Federation,A Generational Accounting StudyTHE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 233 2000JOHN ABLETT This paper presents estimates of average net payments to government, as a per cent of average lifetime labour earnings, for generations born in Australia since Federation (1901), based on historical data combined with several reasonable future scenarios covering fiscal policy, growth and demographic change. The results shed light on whether certain generations have been treated more favorably by the public sector than others this century. The main conclusion is that the average lifetime net tax rate will, under reasonable,assumptions, be of the order of 37,39 per cent for all currently living generations born since the mid-1930s. [source] Environmental knowledge and small-scale rural landholding in south-west EnglandTHE GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL, Issue 1 2010CAROL MORRIS This paper explores the environmental knowledge of small-scale rural landholders and comments on the implications of this for environmental policy. The paper draws on conceptualisations of knowledge as ,know what', ,know why', ,know how' and ,know who', recognises a distinction between tacit and codified environmental knowledges and highlights the need to consider the politics of knowledge surrounding environmental issues. Both quantitative and qualitative data are reported, and are derived from structured interviews with 30 small-scale landholders who were participants in a nature and landscape conservation initiative , the Landscape Heritage Scheme , within South Devon, England. These data are used to explore the place of environmental concerns within the land management objectives of respondents; the nature and extent of their environmental knowledge; how a range of factors alongside their environmental knowledge shaped the environmental practices of respondents; and the politics of knowledge associated with the Landscape Heritage Scheme. The paper suggests that small-scale landholders should be of interest to environmental policy, prioritising environmental objectives in their land management, being relatively knowledgeable about the environment and highly responsive to environmental advice and financial incentives that support environmental management. A case is made for developing research in this area, given ongoing processes of rural demographic change and the rising importance within this of an increasingly diverse landholding population. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||