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Demographic Analysis (demographic + analysis)
Selected AbstractsThe irreversible cattle-driven transformation of a seasonally flooded Australian savannaJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 5 2003Ben R. Sharp Abstract Aim ,Anecdotal historical and photographic evidence suggests that woody vegetation is increasing dramatically in some northern Australian savanna habitats. Vegetation change in savannas has important implications for pastoral land-use, conservation management, and landscape-scale carbon storage, and informs theoretical debates about ecosystem function. This study seeks to determine the nature, extent and cause(s) of woody vegetation change in a seasonally flooded alluvial savanna habitat. Location ,The study area is located within the seasonally inundated alluvial zone of the tidal portion of the Victoria River, Northern Territory, Australia. The study area has been grazed by domestic stock since c. 1900, prior to which the area was inhabited and more likely regularly burnt by Aboriginal people for thousands of years. Methods ,Digital georeferenced aerial photographic coverages were used to examine and quantify woody vegetation change between 1948 and 1993. Transect surveys of woody and herbaceous vegetation were carried out to ground-truth air-photo results and determine the nature and causes of observed vegetation changes. Results ,There has been a dramatic increase in woody vegetation cover throughout the study area. Vegetation change patterns are roughly uniform across the full range of edaphic habitat variation and are unrelated to the depositional age of fluvial sediments. Two woody species, Eucalyptus microtheca and Excoecaria parvifolia, are predominantly responsible for observed increases. Demographic analyses reveal that woody invasions have been episodic and indicate that in most locations peak woody species establishment occurred in the mid-1970s. Grasses are almost absent in a majority of habitats within the study area. Instead, large areas are covered by scalded soil, dense invasive weed populations, and unpalatable forbs and sedges. What grasses do occur are predominantly of very low value for grazing. The condition of the herbaceous layer renders most of the study area almost completely non-flammable; what fires do burn are small and of low intensity. Main conclusions ,Multiple working hypotheses explaining observed patterns of woody vegetation increase were considered and rejected in turn. The only hypothesis consistent with the evidence is as follows: (1) observed changes are a direct consequence of extreme overgrazing by cattle, most likely when stocking rates peaked in the mid-1970s; (2) prolonged heavy grazing effected the complete transformation of much of the herbaceous vegetation to a new state that is not flammable; and (3) in the absence of regular fire mortality, woody vegetation increased rapidly. The relatively treeless system that existed in 1948 was apparently stable and resilient to moderate grazing levels, and perhaps also to episodic heavy grazing events. However, grazing intensity in excess of a sustainable threshold has forced a transition that is irreversible in the foreseeable future. Stable-state transitions such as this one inform debates at the heart of ecological theory, such as the nature of stability, resilience, equilibrium and carrying capacity in dynamic savanna ecosystems. [source] Trehalose extends longevity in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegansAGING CELL, Issue 4 2010Yoko Honda Summary Trehalose is a disaccharide of glucose found in diverse organisms and is suggested to act as a stress protectant against heat, cold, desiccation, anoxia, and oxidation. Here, we demonstrate that treatment of Caenorhabditis elegans with trehalose starting from the young-adult stage extended the mean life span by over 30% without any side effects. Surprisingly, trehalose treatment starting even from the old-adult stage shortly thereafter retarded the age-associated decline in survivorship and extended the remaining life span by 60%. Demographic analyses of age-specific mortality rates revealed that trehalose extended the life span by lowering age-independent vulnerability. Moreover, trehalose increased the reproductive span and retarded the age-associated decrease in pharyngeal-pumping rate and the accumulation of lipofuscin autofluorescence. Trehalose also enhanced thermotolerance and reduced polyglutamine aggregation. These results suggest that trehalose suppressed aging by counteracting internal or external stresses that disrupt protein homeostasis. On the other hand, the life span-extending effect of trehalose was abolished in long-lived insulin/IGF-1-like receptor (daf-2) mutants. RNA interference-mediated inactivation of the trehalose-biosynthesis genes trehalose-6-phosphate synthase-1 (tps-1) and tps-2, which are known to be up-regulated in daf-2 mutants, decreased the daf-2 life span. These findings indicate that a reduction in insulin/IGF-1-like signaling extends life span, at least in part, through the aging-suppressor function of trehalose. Trehalose may be a lead compound for potential nutraceutical intervention of the aging process. [source] Assessment of demographic risk factors and management priorities: impacts on juveniles substantially affect population viability of a long-lived seabirdANIMAL CONSERVATION, Issue 2 2010M. E. Finkelstein Abstract Predicting population-level effects from changes in demographic rates of different life stages is critical to prioritize conservation efforts. Demographic modeling and sensitivity analysis in particular, has become a standard tool to evaluate how management actions influence species' survival. Demographic analyses have resulted in the robust generalization that, for long-lived species with delayed reproduction, population growth rates will be most sensitive to changes in survivorship of older-aged individuals. Although useful in guiding management, this simple maxim may limit options for conservation by causing managers to overlook actions that, although possibly not the most effective in terms of increasing a population's growth rate in an ideal world, can nonetheless more feasibly and rapidly slow a population's decline. We examine the population-level benefits of increasing chick survival in a long-lived seabird, the Laysan albatross Phoebastria immutabilis. Specifically, we use a simple deterministic modeling approach to evaluate the impact of chick mortality (from ingestion of lead-based paint) on the population growth rate (,) for Laysan albatross that breed on Sand Island, Midway Atoll (part of the Hawaiian Archipelago). We estimate that up to 7% of chicks on Sand Island fail to fledge as a result of lead poisoning, which will create a 16% reduction in the Laysan albatross population size (,190 000 less birds) at 50 years into the future. We demonstrate how straightforward management actions that increase juvenile survivorship (e.g. removal of lead-based paint) can help slow population declines while efforts are underway to reduce politically and logistically challenging threats to adult survivorship (e.g. mortality from international fisheries bycatch). Our work exemplifies a situation where overgeneralizations about demography can stifle useful conservation actions and highlights the need to consider the population-level benefits from multiple management strategies. [source] Demographic analysis of continuous-time life-history modelsECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 1 2008André M. De Roos Abstract I present a computational approach to calculate the population growth rate, its sensitivity to life-history parameters and associated statistics like the stable population distribution and the reproductive value for exponentially growing populations, in which individual life history is described as a continuous development through time. The method is generally applicable to analyse population growth and performance for a wide range of individual life-history models, including cases in which the population consists of different types of individuals or in which the environment is fluctuating periodically. It complements comparable methods developed for discrete-time dynamics modelled with matrix or integral projection models. The basic idea behind the method is to use Lotka's integral equation for the population growth rate and compute the integral occurring in that equation by integrating an ordinary differential equation, analogous to recently derived methods to compute steady-states of physiologically structured population models. I illustrate application of the method using a number of published life-history models. [source] Demographic analysis of dormancy and survival in the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginaeJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2004MARC KÉRY Summary 1We use capture-recapture models to estimate the fraction of dormant ramets, survival and state transition rates, and to identify factors affecting these rates, for the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae. We studied two populations in West Virginia, USA, for 11 years and investigated relationships between grazing and demography. Abe Run's population was small, with moderate herbivory by deer and relatively constant population size. The population at Big Draft was of medium size, with heavy deer grazing, and a sharply declining number of flowering plants up to the spring before our study started, when the population was fenced. 2We observed dormant episodes lasting from 1 to 4 years. At Abe Run and Big Draft, 32.5% and 7.4% of ramets, respectively, were dormant at least once during the study period for an average of 1.6 and 1.3 years, respectively. We estimated the annual fraction of ramets in the dormant state at 12.3% (95% CI 9.5,15.8%) at Abe Run and at 1.8% (95% CI 1.2,2.6%) at Big Draft. Transition rates between the dormant, vegetative and flowering life-states did not vary between years in either population. Most surviving ramets remained in the same state from one year to the next. Survival rates were constant at Abe Run (0.96, 95% CI 0.93,0.97), but varied between years at Big Draft (0.89,0.99, mean 0.95). 3At Big Draft, we found neither a temporal trend in survival after cessation of grazing, nor relationships between survival and the number of spring frost days or cumulative precipitation during the current or the previous 12 months. However, analysis of precipitation on a 3-month basis revealed a positive relationship between survival and precipitation during the spring (March,May) of the previous year. 4Relationship between climate and the population dynamics of orchids may have to be studied with a fine temporal resolution, and considering possible time lags. Capture-recapture modelling provides a comprehensive and flexible framework for demographic analysis of plants with dormancy. [source] UNCOORDINATED PHYLOGEOGRAPHY OF BORRELIA BURGDORFERI AND ITS TICK VECTOR, IXODES SCAPULARISEVOLUTION, Issue 9 2010Parris T. Humphrey Vector-borne microbes necessarily co-occur with their hosts and vectors, but the degree to which they share common evolutionary or biogeographic histories remains unexplored. We examine the congruity of the evolutionary and biogeographic histories of the bacterium and vector of the Lyme disease system, the most prevalent vector-borne disease in North America. In the eastern and midwestern US, Ixodes scapularis ticks are the primary vectors of Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease. Our phylogeographic and demographic analyses of the 16S mitochondrial rDNA suggest that northern I. scapularis populations originated from very few migrants from the southeastern US that expanded rapidly in the Northeast and subsequently in the Midwest after the recession of the Pleistocene ice sheets. Despite this historical gene flow, current tick migration is restricted even between proximal sites within regions. In contrast, B. burgdorferi suffers no barriers to gene flow within the northeastern and midwestern regions but shows clear interregional migration barriers. Despite the intimate association of B. burgdorferi and I. scapularis, the population structure, evolutionary history, and historical biogeography of the pathogen are all contrary to its arthropod vector. In the case of Lyme disease, movements of infected vertebrate hosts may play a larger role in the contemporary expansion and homogenization of the pathogen than the movement of tick vectors whose populations continue to bear the historical signature of climate-induced range shifts. [source] Pinpointing a selective sweep to the chimpanzee MHC class I region by comparative genomicsMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 8 2008NATASJA G. DE GROOT Abstract Chimpanzees experienced a reduction of the allelic repertoire at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I A and B loci, which may have been caused by a retrovirus belonging to the simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) family. Extended MHC haplotypes were defined in a pedigreed chimpanzee colony. Comparison of genetic variation at microsatellite markers mapping inside and outside the Mhc region was carried out in humans and chimpanzees to investigate the genomic extent of the repertoire reduction. Multilocus demographic analyses underscored that chimpanzees indeed experienced a selective sweep that mainly targeted the chromosomal segment carrying the Mhc class I region. Probably due to genetic linkage, the sweep also affected other polymorphic loci, mapping in the close vicinity of the Mhc class I region genes. Nevertheless, although the allelic repertoire at particular Mhc class I and II loci appears to be limited, naturally occurring recombination events allowed the establishment of haplotype diversity after the sweep. However, recombination did not have sufficient time to erase the signal of the selective sweep. [source] Phenotypic evolution in high-elevation populations of western fence lizards (Sceloporus occidentalis) in the Sierra Nevada MountainsBIOLOGICAL JOURNAL OF THE LINNEAN SOCIETY, Issue 3 2010ADAM D. LEACHÉ Adaptive divergence in response to variable habitats, climates, and altitude is often accentuated along elevation gradients. We investigate phenotypic evolution in body size and coloration in the western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis Baird & Girard, 1852) across elevation gradients in Yosemite National Park, California, situated in the Sierra Nevada mountains of Western North America. High-elevation populations occurring above 2100 m a.s.l. are recognized as a separate subspecies (Sceloporus occidentalis taylori Camp, 1916), with a distinctive phenotype characterized by a large body size and extensive blue ventral pigmentation. We sampled S. occidentalis from across elevation gradients in Yosemite National Park, California, and collected phenotypic data (body size and ventral coloration measurements; 410 specimens) and mitochondrial DNA sequence data (complete NADH1 gene; 969 bp, 181 specimens) to infer phylogenetic relationships, and examine the genetic and phenotypic diversity among populations. Populations of S. occidentalis in Yosemite National Park follow Bergmann's rule and exhibit larger body sizes in colder, high-elevation environments. The high-elevation subspecies S. o. taylori is not monophyletic, and the mitochondrial DNA genealogy supports a model of convergent phenotypic evolution among high-elevation populations belonging to different river drainages. The hypothesis that separate populations of S. occidentalis expanded up river drainages after the recession of glaciers is supported by population demographic analyses, and suggest that Bergmann's clines can evolve rapidly along elevation gradients. The distinctive high-elevation phenotype that is attributable to S. o. taylori has evolved independently several times, and includes adaptive phenotypic changes associated with increases in body size and ventral coloration. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 100, 630,641. [source] Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross speciesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2010VIRGINIE ROLLAND Abstract Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long-term data (1985,2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub-Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography. [source] Demographic analysis of dormancy and survival in the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginaeJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2004MARC KÉRY Summary 1We use capture-recapture models to estimate the fraction of dormant ramets, survival and state transition rates, and to identify factors affecting these rates, for the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae. We studied two populations in West Virginia, USA, for 11 years and investigated relationships between grazing and demography. Abe Run's population was small, with moderate herbivory by deer and relatively constant population size. The population at Big Draft was of medium size, with heavy deer grazing, and a sharply declining number of flowering plants up to the spring before our study started, when the population was fenced. 2We observed dormant episodes lasting from 1 to 4 years. At Abe Run and Big Draft, 32.5% and 7.4% of ramets, respectively, were dormant at least once during the study period for an average of 1.6 and 1.3 years, respectively. We estimated the annual fraction of ramets in the dormant state at 12.3% (95% CI 9.5,15.8%) at Abe Run and at 1.8% (95% CI 1.2,2.6%) at Big Draft. Transition rates between the dormant, vegetative and flowering life-states did not vary between years in either population. Most surviving ramets remained in the same state from one year to the next. Survival rates were constant at Abe Run (0.96, 95% CI 0.93,0.97), but varied between years at Big Draft (0.89,0.99, mean 0.95). 3At Big Draft, we found neither a temporal trend in survival after cessation of grazing, nor relationships between survival and the number of spring frost days or cumulative precipitation during the current or the previous 12 months. However, analysis of precipitation on a 3-month basis revealed a positive relationship between survival and precipitation during the spring (March,May) of the previous year. 4Relationship between climate and the population dynamics of orchids may have to be studied with a fine temporal resolution, and considering possible time lags. Capture-recapture modelling provides a comprehensive and flexible framework for demographic analysis of plants with dormancy. [source] Population dynamics and stage structure in a haploid-diploid red seaweed, Gracilaria gracilisJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2001Carolyn Engel Summary 1,Many red seaweeds are characterized by a haploid-diploid life cycle in which populations consist of dioecious haploid (gametophyte) and diploid (tetrasporophyte) individuals as well as an additional diploid zygote-derived sporangium (carposporophyte) stage. A demographic analysis of Gracilaria gracilis populations was carried out to explore and evaluate the population dynamics and stage structure of a typical haploid-diploid red seaweed. 2,Four G. gracilis populations were studied at two sites on the French coast of the Strait of Dover. Survival, reproduction and recruitment rates were measured in each population for up to 4 years. Eight two-sex stage-based population projection matrices were built to describe their demography. 3,All four populations were characterized by high survival and low recruitment rates. Population growth rates (,) were similar between populations and between years and ranged from 1.03 to 1.17. In addition, generation times were found to be as long as 42 years. 4,Sex and ploidy ratios were variable across populations and over time. Female frequencies ranged from 0.31 to 0.59 and tetrasporophyte frequencies from 0.44 to 0.63. However, in most cases, the observed population structures were not significantly different from the calculated stage distributions. 5,Eigenvalue elasticity analysis showed that , was most sensitive to changes in matrix transitions that corresponded to survival of the gametophyte and tetrasporophyte stages. In contrast, the contribution of the fertility elements to , was small. Eigenvector elasticity analysis also showed that survival elements had the greatest impact on sex and ploidy ratios. [source] Skeletal Estimation and Identification in American and East European Populations,JOURNAL OF FORENSIC SCIENCES, Issue 3 2008Erin H. Kimmerle Ph.D. Abstract:, Forensic science is a fundamental transitional justice issue as it is imperative for providing physical evidence of crimes committed and a framework for interpreting evidence and prosecuting violations to International Humanitarian Law (IHL). The evaluation of evidence presented in IHL trials and the outcomes various rulings by such courts have in regard to the accuracy or validity of methods applied in future investigations is necessary to ensure scientific quality. Accounting for biological and statistical variation in the methods applied across populations and the ways in which such evidence is used in varying judicial systems is important because of the increasing amount of international forensic casework being done globally. Population variation or the perceived effect of such variation on the accuracy and reliability of methods is important as it may alter trial outcomes, and debates about the scientific basis for human variation are now making their way into international courtrooms. Anthropological data on population size (i.e., the minimum number of individuals in a grave), demographic structure (i.e., the age and sex distribution of victims), individual methods applied for identification, and general methods of excavation and trauma analysis have provided key evidence in cases of IHL. More generally, the question of population variation and the applicability of demographic methods for estimating individual and population variables is important for American and International casework in the face of regional population variation, immigrant populations, ethnic diversity, and secular changes. The reliability of various skeletal aging methods has been questioned in trials prosecuted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Prosecutor of the Tribunal against Radislav Krsti, (Case No. IT-98-33, Trial Judgment) and again in the currently ongoing trial of The Prosecutor of the Tribunal against Zdravko Tolimir, Radivolje Mileti,, Milan Gvero, Vinko Pandurevi,, Ljubisa Beara, Vujadin Popovi,, Drago Nikoli,, Milorad Trbi,, Ljubomir Borovcanin (IT-05-88-PT, Second Amended Indictment). Following the trial of General Krsti,, a collaborative research project was developed between the Forensic Anthropology Center at The University of Tennessee (UT) and the United Nations, International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, Office of the Prosecutor (ICTY). The purpose of that collaboration was to investigate methods used for the demographic analysis of forensic evidence and where appropriate to recalibrate methods for individual estimation of age, sex, and stature for specific use in the regions of the former Yugoslavia. The question of "local standards" and challenges to the reliability of current anthropological methods for biological profiling in international trials of IHL, as well as the performance of such methods to meet the evidentiary standards used by international tribunals is investigated. Anthropological methods for estimating demographic parameters are reviewed. An overview of the ICTY-UT collaboration for research aimed at addressing specific legal issues is discussed and sample reliability for Balkan aging research is tested. The methods currently used throughout the Balkans are discussed and estimated demographic parameters obtained through medico-legal death investigations are compared with identified cases. Based on this investigation, recommendations for improving international protocols for evidence collection, presentation, and research are outlined. [source] Population substructures in the soil invertebrate Orchesella cincta, as revealed by microsatellite and TE-AFLP markersMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2003A. W. G. Van Der Wurff Abstract Microsatellite and three enzyme,amplified fragment length polymorphism (TE-AFLP) DNA markers were used to describe the population genetic structure in the soil dwelling collembolan Orchesella cincta (L.). Two forests were sampled according to a three-level nested hierarchical design, with fixed distances among samples within a parcel and among parcels within a forest. The largest component of variation was found at the smallest scale, within parcels (77,97%), while the smallest component of variation was found between forests. The two different methods to study population structure indicated a similar allocation of variance. Population genetic substructuring was revealed between samples on a scale of 50 m; the degree of substructuring however, varied between parcels and forests. One forest showed a high degree of structure as revealed by microsatellites, while another showed a low degree of structure. A significant deviation from random-mating (average FIS = 0.23) over the two forests was detected. Two of 18 samples showed a difference in population genetic structure between males and females. We discuss the fact that the population genetic structure of O. cincta is significantly affected by long-range dispersal, even though it is a small and wingless insect. This interpretation is supported by observations on tree-climbing behaviour in this species that may facilitate air dispersal. As a consequence, the assumption that migration a priori may be neglected in demographic analysis of O. cincta is incorrect. [source] On the interstellar medium and star formation demographics of galaxies in the local universeMONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 1 2009Matthew S. Bothwell ABSTRACT We present a demographic analysis of integrated star formation and gas properties for a sample of galaxies representative of the overall population at z, 0. This research was undertaken in order to characterize the nature of star formation and interstellar medium (ISM) behaviour in the local Universe, and test the extent to which global star formation rates (SFRs) can be seen as dependent on the interstellar gas content. Archival 21-cm derived H i data are compiled from the literature, and are combined with CO (J =1 , 0) derived H2 masses to calculate and characterize the total gas content for a large sample of local galaxies. The distribution in stellar mass-normalized H i content is found to exhibit the noted characteristic transition at stellar masses of ,3 × 1010 M,, turning off towards low values, but no such transition is observed in the equivalent distribution of molecular gas. H, based SFRs and specific star formation rates (SSFRs) are also compiled for a large (1110) sample of local galaxies. We confirm two transitions as found in previous work: a turnover towards low SFRs at high luminosities, indicative of the quenching of SF characteristic of the red sequence; and a broadening of the SF distribution in low-luminosity dwarf galaxies, again to extremely low SFRs of <10,3 M, yr,1. However, a new finding is that while the upper luminosity transition is mirrored by the turnover in H i content, suggesting that the low SFRs of the red sequence result from a lack of available gas supply, the transition towards a large spread of SFRs in the least luminous dwarf galaxies is not matched by a prominent increase in scatter in gas content. Possible mass-dependent quenching mechanisms are discussed, along with speculations that in low-mass galaxies, the H, luminosity may not faithfully trace the SFR. [source] Partial life cycle analysis: a model for pre-breeding census dataOIKOS, Issue 3 2001Madan K. Oli Matrix population models have become popular tools in research areas as diverse as population dynamics, life history theory, wildlife management, and conservation biology. Two classes of matrix models are commonly used for demographic analysis of age-structured populations: age-structured (Leslie) matrix models, which require age-specific demographic data, and partial life cycle models, which can be parameterized with partial demographic data. Partial life cycle models are easier to parameterize because data needed to estimate parameters for these models are collected much more easily than those needed to estimate age-specific demographic parameters. Partial life cycle models also allow evaluation of the sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in ages at first and last reproduction, which cannot be done with age-structured models. Timing of censuses relative to the birth-pulse is an important consideration in discrete-time population models but most existing partial life cycle models do not address this issue, nor do they allow fractional values of variables such as ages at first and last reproduction. Here, we fully develop a partial life cycle model appropriate for situations in which demographic data are collected immediately before the birth-pulse (pre-breeding census). Our pre-breeding census partial life cycle model can be fully parameterized with five variables (age at maturity, age at last reproduction, juvenile survival rate, adult survival rate, and fertility), and it has some important applications even when age-specific demographic data are available (e.g., perturbation analysis involving ages at first and last reproduction). We have extended the model to allow non-integer values of ages at first and last reproduction, derived formulae for sensitivity analyses, and presented methods for estimating parameters for our pre-breeding census partial life cycle model. We applied the age-structured Leslie matrix model and our pre-breeding census partial life cycle model to demographic data for several species of mammals. Our results suggest that dynamical properties of the age-structured model are generally retained in our partial life cycle model, and that our pre-breeding census partial life cycle model is an excellent proxy for the age-structured Leslie matrix model. [source] Demography and reproductive strategies of a polycarpic perennial, Trillium apetalon (Trilliaceae)PLANT SPECIES BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2001MASASHI OHARA Abstract To investigate the connection between demographic strategies and reproductive strategies of a polycarpic perennial herb, Trillium apetalon Makino, we conducted three studies. First, we monitored the fate of individuals and the flowering behavior of T. apetalon for 12 years and used a transition matrix model to analyze the demography of the population. The analysis revealed that it takes a long time for individuals to go through one-leaf stage in juveniles. Elasticity analysis showed that the survival of flowering individuals was a decisive factor in the dynamics of the population. Furthermore, we found that the average remaining lifetime of flowering individuals was high relative to the other three stages. Second, to elucidate the demographic consequences of organ preformation, we investigated the development of flower buds for future years. We observed three to six flower buds per rhizome, suggesting that flower buds for the next 3,6 years were ready in advance in this plant. Third, the results of breeding experiments clarified that although this species appears to have a substantial capacity for both inbreeding and outbreeding, inbreeding plays an important role in seed production, and that crossing experiments (direct cross-pollination and self pollination) yielded similar seed-ovule ratios to those obtained from open-pollinated individuals. Our three studies suggest that the adult survival and continuous flowering strategies of T. apetalon obtained from demographic analysis are closely interlinked with breeding systems and preformation of flower buds. [source] Estimation of adult skeletal age-at-death using the Sugeno fuzzy integralAMERICAN JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL ANTHROPOLOGY, Issue 1 2010Melissa F. Anderson Abstract Age-at-death estimation of an individual skeleton is important to forensic and biological anthropologists for identification and demographic analysis, but it has been shown that the current aging methods are often unreliable because of skeletal variation and taphonomic factors. Multifactorial methods have been shown to produce better results when determining age-at-death than single indicator methods. However, multifactorial methods are difficult to apply to single or poorly preserved skeletons, and they rarely provide the investigator with information about the reliability of the estimate. The goal of this research is to examine the validity of the Sugeno fuzzy integral as a multifactorial method for modeling age-at-death of an individual skeleton. This approach is novel because it produces an informed decision of age-at-death utilizing multiple age indicators while also taking into consideration the accuracies of the methods and the condition of the bone being examined. Additionally, the Sugeno fuzzy integral does not require the use of a population and it qualitatively produces easily interpreted graphical results. Examples are presented applying three commonly used aging methods on a known-age skeletal sample from the Terry Anatomical Collection. This method produces results that are more accurate and with smaller intervals than single indicator methods. Am J Phys Anthropol 2010. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||