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Decision Analysis (decision + analysis)
Terms modified by Decision Analysis Selected AbstractsIncorporating linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information in a risk-based approach for ranking contaminated sitesINTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2010Kejiang Zhang Abstract Different types of uncertain information,linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic,exist in site characterization. Their representation and propagation significantly influence the management of contaminated sites. In the absence of a framework with which to properly represent and integrate these quantitative and qualitative inputs together, decision makers cannot fully take advantage of the available and necessary information to identify all the plausible alternatives. A systematic methodology was developed in the present work to incorporate linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information into the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods for ranking contaminated sites. The identification of criteria based on the paradigm of comparative risk assessment provides a rationale for risk-based prioritization. Uncertain linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information identified in characterizing contaminated sites can be properly represented as numerical values, intervals, probability distributions, and fuzzy sets or possibility distributions, and linguistic variables according to their nature. These different kinds of representation are first transformed into a 2-tuple linguistic representation domain. The propagation of hybrid uncertainties is then carried out in the same domain. This methodology can use the original site information directly as much as possible. The case study shows that this systematic methodology provides more reasonable results. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2010;6:711,724. © 2010 SETAC [source] Mindsets, rationality and emotion in Multi-criteria Decision AnalysisJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 4 2005Fred WenstøpArticle first published online: 21 SEP 200 Abstract This paper discusses the paradigm of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), and relates it to other disciplines. It concludes that MCDA needs a larger, not smaller, emphasis on values and subjectivity to increase rationality in decision-making. The paper bases the argument on a conciliation of ethics, philosophy, neuro-psychology and management paradigms. It observes that the MCDA ,mindset' relates to consequentialism, as opposed to virtue ethics and rule based ethics. Virtues and rules play an important role in practical decision-making, however. Findings in neuro-psychology show that reliable decision-making requires emotions. Elicitation of emotions is therefore required in MCDA value trade-off processes. This leads to a concept of emotional rationality, which defines rationality as a four-dimensional concept that includes well-founded values and breaks radically with common notions of rationality. Virtues do not easily lend themselves to value trade-off, but questions of virtue usually creates strong social emotions, as opposed to the feebler global emotions that may arise in connection conventional trade-off of end values. The conclusion is that MCDA should not be shy of subjectivity and emotion, but instead put more emphasis on it to increase rationality. A part of this challenge is how to deal with questions of virtue in decision-making. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Emotional intelligence in MCDA: comments on Mindsets, rationality and emotion in Multi-criteria Decision AnalysisJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 4 2005Cathal M. Brugha [source] A goal programming model for crew duties generationJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 3 2001Sydney C.K. Chu Abstract An Erratum has been published for this article in Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 10(5) 2001, 285. This paper proposes a model for the generation of daily work duties of airside crew (being bus drivers) at the Hong Kong International Airport. The results can be adopted as a good crew schedule, in the sense that it is both feasible, satisfying requirements of various work conditions, and ,optimal' in minimizing overtime shifts. It is formulated as a goal programme, specifically designed to cater for the manpower planning issues to handle frequent changes of flight schedules by flexibility in work patterns of driver duties. Illustrative results from an actual case study are given. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Clinical Judgment Versus Decision Analysis for Managing Device AdvisoriesPACING AND CLINICAL ELECTROPHYSIOLOGY, Issue 10 2008MITESH S. AMIN M.D. Introduction: Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) and pacemaker (PM) advisories may have a significant impact on patient management. Surveys of clinical practice have shown a great deal of variability in patient management after a device advisory. We compared our management of consecutive patients in a single large university practice with device advisories to the "best" patient management strategy predicted by a decision analysis model. Methods: We performed a retrospective review of all patients who had implanted devices affected by an advisory at our medical center between March 2005 and May 2006 and compared our actual patient management strategy with that subsequently predicted by a decision analysis model. Results: Over 14 months, 11 advisories from three different manufacturers affected 436 patients. Twelve patients (2.8%) were deceased and 39 patients (8.9%) were followed at outside facilities. Management of the 385 remaining patients varied based on type of malfunction or potential malfunction, manufacturer recommendations, device dependency, and patient or physician preferences. Management consisted of the following: 57 device replacements (15.2%), 44 devices reprogrammed or magnets issued (11.7%), and 268 patients underwent more frequent follow-up (71.3%). No major complications, related to device malfunction or device replacement, occurred among any patient affected with a device advisory. Concordance between the decision analysis model and our management strategy occurred in 57.1% of cases and 25 devices were replaced when it was not the preferred treatment strategy predicted by the decision model (43.9%, 37.3% when excluding devices replaced based on patient preference). The decision analysis favored replacement for all patients with PM dependency, but only for four patients with ICDs for secondary prevention. No devices were left implanted that the decision analysis model predicted should have been replaced. Conclusions: We found that despite a fairly conservative device replacement strategy for advisories, we still replaced more devices when it was not the preferred device management strategy predicted by a decision analysis model. This study demonstrates that even when risks and benefits are being considered by experienced clinicians, a formal decision analysis can help to develop a systematic evidence based approach and potentially avoid unnecessary procedures. [source] Screening to Prevent Polyoma Virus Nephropathy: A Medical Decision AnalysisAMERICAN JOURNAL OF TRANSPLANTATION, Issue 10 2005Bryce A Kiberd Polyomavirus nephropathy (PVN) is an emerging medical dilemma in kidney transplantation. Methods to screen before clinical disease are available and early immunosuppression reduction may change the natural history of progression. However, the consequences of an increase in rejection may limit the benefits. In a simulation model a 'screen' versus 'no-screen' strategy was compared. Baseline PVN cumulative incidence was assumed to be 4%. Patients with PVN were modeled to have 4-fold higher risk of graft loss. In the screen strategy, patients positive for blood DNA PCR had their immunosuppression reduced. This pre-emptive change was modeled to reduce progression to overt PVN by 80%. Therapy reduction was associated with a 10% risk of precipitating acute rejection and greater risk of chronic allograft loss. In the baseline case, screening saved $1912 (discounted) and produced 0.020 more quality adjusted life years (QALYs) than not screening. Screening resulted in decreased net QALYs if the false positive viremia rate was >9.5% and the PVN incidence was <2.1%. Much of the cost savings of screening relate to savings from immunosuppression reduction in the screened arm. Screening may well be cost-effective if not cost saving in centers with high PVN rates. There remain significant areas of uncertainty. [source] Is Defibrillation Testing Still Necessary?JOURNAL OF CARDIOVASCULAR ELECTROPHYSIOLOGY, Issue 4 2008A Decision Analysis, Markov Model Objective: To assess the impact of defibrillation threshold (DFT) testing of implanted cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) on survival. Background: DFT testing is generally performed during implantation of ICDs to assess sensing and termination of ventricular fibrillation. It is common clinical practice to defibrillate ventricular fibrillation twice at an output at least 10 J below the maximum output of the device, providing a 10 J safety margin. However, there are few data regarding impact of DFT testing on outcomes. Methods: Decision analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were used to assess expected outcomes of DFT testing. Survival of a hypothetical cohort of patients was assessed according to two strategies,routine DFT testing at time of ICD implant versus no DFT testing. Assumptions in the model were varied over a range of reasonable values to assess outcomes under a variety of scenarios. Results: Five-year survival with DFT and no-DFT strategies were similar at 59.72% and 59.36%, respectively. The results were not sensitive to changing risk estimates for arrhythmia incidence and safety margin. Results of the Monte Carlo simulation were qualitatively similar to the base case scenario and consistent with a small and nonsignificant survival advantage with routine DFT testing. Conclusions: The impact of DFT testing on 5-year survival in ICD patients, if it exists, is small. Survival appears higher with DFT testing as long as annual risk of lethal arrhythmia or the risk of a narrow safety margin is at least 5%, although the incremental benefit is marginal and 95% confidence intervals cross zero. A prospective randomized study of DFT testing in modern devices is warranted. [source] Cost-effectiveness of growth factors during hepatitis C anti-viral therapyALIMENTARY PHARMACOLOGY & THERAPEUTICS, Issue 7 2006M. K. CHAPKO Summary Background, Although the current standard of care for controlling anaemia and neutropenia during anti-viral therapy for hepatitis C is to use dose reduction of ribavirin and pegylated interferon, respectively, erythropoietin and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor are now being advocated as alternatives to dose reduction. Aim, To determine the cost-effectiveness of erythropoietin and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor as an alternative to anti-viral dose reduction during antihepatitis C therapy. Methods, Decision analysis was used to assess cost-effectiveness by estimating the cost of using a growth factor per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Results, Under baseline assumptions, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year of using growth factors ranged from $16 247 for genotype 1 with neutropenia to $145 468 for genotype 2/3 patients with anaemia. These findings are sensitive to the relationship between dose reduction and sustained virological response. Conclusions, Based upon our findings and the varying strength of the evidence for a relationship between dose reduction and sustained virological response: granulocyte colony-stimulating factor may be cost-effective for genotype 1 patients; erythropoietin is probably not cost-effective for genotype 2/3 patients; no conclusion can be reached regarding the cost-effectiveness of erythropoietin for genotype 1 patients or granulocyte colony-stimulating factor for genotype 2/3 patients. Randomized trials are needed to firmly establish the relationship between dose reduction and sustained virological response. [source] Decision analysis: an aid to the diagnosis of Whipple's diseaseALIMENTARY PHARMACOLOGY & THERAPEUTICS, Issue 6 2006M. OLMOS Summary Background Diagnosis of Whipple's disease, a rare systemic infection affecting predominantly the small bowel, is based on the identification of the bacterium Tropheryma whipplei. Aims To make explicit diagnostic uncertainties in Whipple's disease through a decision analysis, considering two different clinical scenarios at presentation. Methods Using appropriate software, a decision tree estimated the consequences after testing different strategies for diagnosis of Whipple's disease. Probabilities and outcomes to determine the optimum expected value were based on MEDLINE search. Results In patients with clinically-predominant intestinal involvement, diagnostic strategies considering intestinal biopsy for histology (including appropriate staining) and the polymerase chain reaction testing for bacterial DNA were similarly effective. In case of failure of one procedure, the best sequential choice was a polymerase chain reaction analysis after a negative histology. Of the five strategies tested for cases with predominant focal neurological involvement, the stereotaxis cerebral biopsy evidenced the highest expected value. However, using quality-adjusted life-years considering the morbidity of methods, intestinal biopsy for PCR determination was the best choice. Conclusions In patients with Whipple's disease having predominant digestive involvement, intestinal biopsies for histology should be indicated first and, if negative, a bacterial polymerase chain reaction determination should be the next option. Although the molecular polymerase chain reaction assessment of cerebral biopsies has the highest diagnostic yield in neurological Whipple's disease, its associated morbidity means that analyses of intestinal samples are more appropriate. [source] An agent-oriented and knowledge-based system for strategic e-procurementEXPERT SYSTEMS, Issue 1 2004C. F. Cheung Abstract: This paper presents an agent-oriented and knowledge-based system (AOKBS) for strategic e-procurement. The AOKBS has been designed to capture and leverage the knowledge of an enterprise to generate dynamic business rules by which an effective procurement strategy can be generated based on enterprise needs and the analysis of relevant market conditions. The performance and practices of the suppliers can also be evaluated and captured continuously, respectively, by the AOKBS. Artificial intelligence technologies such as case-based reasoning and agent technology are incorporated for decision analysis. A prototype e-procurement system has been built and implemented successfully with a multinational manufacturer. [source] Real options for precautionary fisheries managementFISH AND FISHERIES, Issue 2 2008Eli P Fenichel Abstract The 1996 Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) ,Guidelines on the Precautionary Approach to Fisheries and Species Introduction' raise important issues for fisheries managers, but fail to prescribe an approach for risk management. The distinguishing characteristics of the ,precautionary approach' are the inclusion of uncertainty and ,an elaboration on the burden of proof'. The FAO precautionary approach emphasizes that managers should be risk-averse, but does not provide tools for determining the appropriate degree of risk aversion. Consequently, application of the precautionary approach often leads to decision-making based on ad hoc safety margins. These safety margins are seldom chosen with explicit consideration of trade-offs. If the emphasis was shifted to choosing between competing uncertainties, then managers could manage risk. By attempting to avoid risk, managers may gain exposure to other risks and perhaps miss valuable opportunities. We place fishery management problems within the rubric of ,real investment' problems, and compare and contrast the consideration of risk by alternative investment frameworks. We show that traditional investment frameworks are inappropriate for fishery management, and furthermore, that traditional precautionary approaches are arbitrary and without basis in decision theory. Quantitative decision-making techniques, such as formal decision analysis (FDA), enable integration of competing hypotheses that help alleviate burden-of-proof issues. These techniques help analysts consider sources of uncertainty. FDA, however, can still be subject to arbitrary safety margins because such analyses often focus on determining which strategies best achieve, or avoid, targets that have been established without complete consideration of trade-offs. A managerial finance approach, real options analysis (ROA), is an alternative and complementary decision-making technique that enables managers to compute precautionary adjustments that couple the size of the ,safety margin' with the amount of uncertainty, thereby optimizing risk exposure and avoiding the need for arbitrary safety margins. We illustrate the advantages of an approach that combines FDA and ROA, using a heuristic example about a decision to re-introduce Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) into Lake Ontario. Finally, we provide guidance on applying ROA to other fishery problems. The precautionary approach requires that managers consider risk, but considering risk is not the same as managing it. Here ROA is useful. [source] Reconciling traditional inland fisheries management and sustainability in industrialized countries, with emphasis on EuropeFISH AND FISHERIES, Issue 4 2002Robert Arlinghaus Abstract In northern industrialized countries, the inland fisheries sector has long been dominated by recreational fisheries, which normally exploit fish for leisure or subsistence and provide many (poorly investigated) benefits to society. Various factors constrain the development and existence of inland fisheries, such as local user conflicts, low social priority and inadequate research and funding. In many cases, however, degradation of the environment and loss of aquatic habitat are the predominant concerns for the sustainability of inland fisheries. The need for concerted effort to prevent and reduce environmental degradation, as well as conservation of freshwater fish and fisheries as renewable common pool resources or entities in their own right is the greatest challenge facing sustainable development of inland waters. In inland fisheries management, the declining quality of the aquatic environment coupled with long-term inadequate and often inappropriate fisheries management has led to an emphasis on enhancement practices, such as stocking, to mitigate anthropogenic stress. However, this is not always the most appropriate management approach. Therefore, there is an urgent need to alter many traditional inland fisheries management practices and systems to focus on sustainable development. This paper reviews the literature regarding the inputs needed for sustainability of inland fisheries in industrialized countries. To understand better the problems facing sustainable inland fisheries management, the inland fisheries environment, its benefits, negative impacts and constraints, as well as historical management, paradigms, trends and current practices are described. Major philosophical shifts, challenges and promising integrated management approaches are envisaged in a holistic framework. The following are considered key elements for sustainable development of inland fisheries: communication, information dissemination, education, institutional restructuring, marketing outreach, management plans, decision analysis, socioeconomic evaluation and research into the human dimension, in addition to traditional biological and ecological sciences. If these inputs are integrated with traditional fisheries management practices, the prospects for sustainability in the inland fisheries will be enhanced. [source] Whither trial-based economic evaluation for health care decision making?HEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 7 2006Mark J. Sculpher Abstract The randomised controlled trial (RCT) has developed a central role in applied cost-effectiveness studies in health care as the vehicle for analysis. This paper considers the role of trial-based economic evaluation in this era of explicit decision making. It is argued that any framework for economic analysis can only be judged insofar as it can inform two key decisions and be consistent with the objectives of a health care system subject to its resource constraints. The two decisions are, firstly, whether to adopt a health technology given existing evidence and, secondly, an assessment of whether more evidence is required to support this decision in the future. It is argued that a framework of economic analysis is needed which can estimate costs and effects, based on all the available evidence, relating to the full range of possible alternative interventions and clinical strategies, over an appropriate time horizon and for specific patient groups. It must also enable the accumulated evidence to be synthesised in an explicit and transparent way in order to fully represent the decision uncertainty. These requirements suggest that, in most circumstances, the use of a single RCT as a vehicle for economic analysis will be an inadequate and partial basis for decision making. It is argued that RCT evidence, with or without economic content, should be viewed as simply one of the sources of evidence, which must be placed in a broader framework of evidence synthesis and decision analysis. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A preference-based index for the SF-12HEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 6 2006D. Stratmann-Schoene Abstract Background: The SF-12 is a widely used generic measure of subjective health. As the scoring algorithms of the SF-12 do not include preference values, different approaches to assign a preference-based index are available that should be tested regarding their feasibility and validity. Objectives: To develop a concept for a preference-based index for the SF-12 on the basis of multi-attribute decision analysis and to perform initial tests of its feasibility and validity in an empirical study. Methods: A multi-attribute preference function for the SF-12 was developed, estimated and tested for validity. Two mail surveys (n = 100, 200) and an interview (n = 72) were conducted with women who had an operation for breast cancer. Visual analogue scale (VAS) and standard gamble (SG) measures elicited preference-based valuations. Results: Eight attributes were identified in the SF-12. Validity tests showed an average difference of 8 VAS score points between directly measured and predicted values for given health states. Conclusion: The initial results show that this approach might allow the direct assignment of a preference-based valuation to the SF-12. The quality of the psychometric features of the multi-attribute value function is encouraging. Future studies should test this concept more extensively, especially by determining parameters for a representative sample of the general population and by comparing performance with other approaches to value the SF-12. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The integration of ecological risk assessment and structured decision making into watershed managementINTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2007Dan W Ohlson Abstract Watershed management processes continue to call for more science and improved decision making that take into account the full range of stakeholder perspectives. Increasingly, the core principles of ecological risk assessment (i.e., the development and use of assessment endpoints and conceptual models, conducting exposure and effects analysis) are being incorporated and adapted in innovative ways to meet the call for more science. Similarly, innovative approaches to adapting decision analysis tools and methods for incorporating stakeholder concerns in complex natural resource management decisions are being increasingly applied. Here, we present an example of the integration of ecological risk assessment with decision analysis in the development of a watershed management plan for the Greater Vancouver Water District in British Columbia, Canada. Assessment endpoints were developed, ecological inventory data were collected, and watershed models were developed to characterize the existing and future condition of 3 watersheds in terms of the potential risks to water quality. Stressors to water quality include sedimentation processes (landslides, streambank erosion) and forest disturbance (wildfire, major insect or disease outbreak). Three landscape-level risk management alternatives were developed to reflect different degrees of management intervention. Each alternative was evaluated under different scenarios and analyzed by explicitly examining value-based trade-offs among water quality, environmental, financial, and social endpoints. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how the integration of ecological risk assessment and decision analysis approaches can support decision makers in watershed management. [source] Risk-based decision making to manage contaminated sedimentsINTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2006Todd S Bridges Abstract This paper summarizes discussion among the 7 authors who served on an expert panel at the Third Battelle International Conference on Remediation of Contaminated Sediments held in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, in January 2005. In this article, the authors review how sediment management decisions are currently made and address the question of how management decisions should be made in the future. It is arguably the case that sediment remediation presents greater challenges and more complexity than traditional land-based clean-ups. Although understanding of these challenges and complexities has grown over the last 25 y, there has been, until recently, relatively little innovation in the approaches used to manage the environmental risks posed by contaminated sediments. New methods that facilitate a more rigorous analysis of the multiple criteria considered in decision making have been developed. These methods, collectively known as multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), coupled with the use of comparative-risk assessment and cost/benefit analysis, are proposed as an effective, efficient, and credible foundation for evaluating remedy alternatives at contaminated sediment sites. [source] Application of multicriteria decision analysis in environmental decision makingINTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2005Gregory A. Kiker Abstract Decision making in environmental projects can be complex and seemingly intractable, principally because of the inherent trade-offs between sociopolitical, environmental, ecological, and economic factors. The selection of appropriate remedial and abatement strategies for contaminated sites, land use planning, and regulatory processes often involves multiple additional criteria such as the distribution of costs and benefits, environmental impacts for different populations, safety, ecological risk, or human values. Some of these criteria cannot be easily condensed into a monetary value, partly because environmental concerns often involve ethical and moral principles that may not be related to any economic use or value. Furthermore, even if it were possible to aggregate multiple criteria rankings into a common unit, this approach would not always be desirable because the ability to track conflicting stakeholder preferences may be lost in the process. Consequently, selecting from among many different alternatives often involves making trade-offs that fail to satisfy 1 or more stakeholder groups. Nevertheless, considerable research in the area of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has made available practical methods for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex multicriteria problems. This paper presents a review of the available literature and provides recommendations for applying MCDA techniques in environmental projects. A generalized framework for decision analysis is proposed to highlight the fundamental ingredients for more structured and tractable environmental decision making. [source] Evidential reasoning-based nonlinear programming model for MCDA under fuzzy weights and utilities,INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS, Issue 1 2010Mi Zhou In a multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) problem, qualitative information with subjective judgments of ambiguity is often provided by people, together with quantitative data that may also be imprecise or incomplete. There are several uncertainties that may be considered in an MCDA problem, such as fuzziness and ambiguity. The evidential reasoning (ER) approach is well suited for dealing with such MCDA problems and can generate comprehensive distributed assessments for different alternatives. Many researches in dealing with imprecise or uncertain belief structures have been conducted on the ER approach. In this paper, both triangular fuzzy weights of criteria and fuzzy utilities assigned to evaluation grades are introduced to the ER approach, which may be incurred in several circumstances such as group decision-making situation. The Hadamard multiplicative combination of judgment matrix is extended for the aggregation of triangular fuzzy judgment matrices, the result of which is applied as the fuzzy weights used in the fuzzy ER approach. The consistency of the aggregated triangular fuzzy judgment matrix is also proved. Several pairs of ER-based programming models are designed to generate the total fuzzy belief degrees and the overall expected fuzzy utilities for the comparison of alternatives. A numerical example is conducted to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Integrating new information and communication technologies in a group decision support systemINTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS IN OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, Issue 6 2000N. Karacapilidis Abstract We view group decision making as a collaborative process, where decision makers can establish a common belief on the dimensions of the problem by following a series of well-defined communicative actions. Having first defined these actions, this paper reports on the exploitation of recent advances in information and communication technology, which can be used to: (i) remove the communication impediments among spatially dispersed decision makers; (ii) efficiently elicit and represent the domain of knowledge; (iii) develop efficient mechanisms to structure and consistently maintain the decision analysis; and (iv) automate the decision making process itself. Automation concerns coherence and consistency checking, detection of contradictions, truth maintenance, and information retrieval techniques. [source] Use of pharmacoeconomics in prescribing research.JOURNAL OF CLINICAL PHARMACY & THERAPEUTICS, Issue 5 2003Part 5: modelling, beyond clinical trials Summary This paper provides an overview of modelling in the economic evaluation of pharmaceuticals, reflecting the increasing use of models in analyses prepared for reimbursement applications to national and local drug formularies. The paper seeks to demystify the most commonly encountered modelling techniques (extrapolation, decision analysis, Markov modelling and Monte Carlo simulation), and to provide guidance in assessing the quality of submitted or published modelled economic evaluations. [source] Characterizing, Propagating, and Analyzing Uncertainty in Life-Cycle Assessment: A Survey of Quantitative ApproachesJOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2007Shannon M. Lloyd Summary Life-cycle assessment (LCA) practitioners build models to quantify resource consumption, environmental releases, and potential environmental and human health impacts of product systems. Most often, practitioners define a model structure, assign a single value to each parameter, and build deterministic models to approximate environmental outcomes. This approach fails to capture the variability and uncertainty inherent in LCA. To make good decisions, decision makers need to understand the uncertainty in and divergence between LCA outcomes for different product systems. Several approaches for conducting LCA under uncertainty have been proposed and implemented. For example, Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy set theory have been applied in a limited number of LCA studies. These approaches are well understood and are generally accepted in quantitative decision analysis. But they do not guarantee reliable outcomes. A survey of approaches used to incorporate quantitative uncertainty analysis into LCA is presented. The suitability of each approach for providing reliable outcomes and enabling better decisions is discussed. Approaches that may lead to overconfident or unreliable results are discussed and guidance for improving uncertainty analysis in LCA is provided. [source] The value of assessing weights in multi-criteria portfolio decision analysisJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 5-6 2008Jeffrey M. KeislerArticle first published online: 28 SEP 200 Abstract Analytic efforts in support of portfolio decisions can be applied with varying levels of intensity. To gain insight about how to match the effort to the situation, we simulate a portfolio of potential projects and compare portfolio performance under a range of analytic strategies. Each project is scored with respect to several attributes in a linear additive value model. Projects are ranked in order of value per unit cost and funded until the budget is exhausted. Assuming these weights and scores are correct, and the funding decisions made this way are optimal, this process is a gold standard against which to compare other decision processes. In particular, a baseline process would fund projects essentially at random, and we may estimate the value added by various decision processes above this worst case as a percentage of the increase arising from the optimal process. We consider several stylized decision rules and combinations of them: using equal weights, picking one attribute at random, assessing weights from a single randomly selected stakeholder. Simulation results are then used to identify which conditions tend to make which types of analytic strategies valuable, and to identify useful hybrid strategies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practiceJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 1-3 2006Gilberto Montibeller Abstract The integrated use of scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an in-depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of scenario planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Utility transversality: a value-based approachJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 5-6 2005James E. Matheson Abstract We examine multiattribute decision problems where a value function is specified over the attributes of a decision problem, as is typically done in the deterministic phase of a decision analysis. When uncertainty is present, a utility function is assigned over the value function to represent the decision maker's risk attitude towards value, which we refer to as a value-based approach. A fundamental result of using the value-based approach is a closed form expression that relates the risk aversion functions of the individual attributes to the trade-off functions between them. We call this relation utility transversality. The utility transversality relation asserts that once the value function is specified there is only one dimension of risk attitude in multiattribute decision problems. The construction of multiattribute utility functions using the value-based approach provides the flexibility to model more general functional forms that do not require assumptions of utility independence. For example, we derive a new family of multiattribute utility functions that describes richer preference structures than the usual multilinear family. We also show that many classical results of utility theory, such as risk sharing and the notion of a corporate risk tolerance, can be derived simply from the utility transversality relations by appropriate choice of the value function. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Mindsets, rationality and emotion in Multi-criteria Decision AnalysisJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 4 2005Fred WenstøpArticle first published online: 21 SEP 200 Abstract This paper discusses the paradigm of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), and relates it to other disciplines. It concludes that MCDA needs a larger, not smaller, emphasis on values and subjectivity to increase rationality in decision-making. The paper bases the argument on a conciliation of ethics, philosophy, neuro-psychology and management paradigms. It observes that the MCDA ,mindset' relates to consequentialism, as opposed to virtue ethics and rule based ethics. Virtues and rules play an important role in practical decision-making, however. Findings in neuro-psychology show that reliable decision-making requires emotions. Elicitation of emotions is therefore required in MCDA value trade-off processes. This leads to a concept of emotional rationality, which defines rationality as a four-dimensional concept that includes well-founded values and breaks radically with common notions of rationality. Virtues do not easily lend themselves to value trade-off, but questions of virtue usually creates strong social emotions, as opposed to the feebler global emotions that may arise in connection conventional trade-off of end values. The conclusion is that MCDA should not be shy of subjectivity and emotion, but instead put more emphasis on it to increase rationality. A part of this challenge is how to deal with questions of virtue in decision-making. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Multi-attribute value theory as a framework for conflict resolution in river rehabilitationJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 2-3 2005Markus Hostmann Abstract Decision making in environmental projects is usually complex because of heterogeneous stakeholder interests, multiple objectives, long planning and implementation processes, and uncertain outcomes. Conflicting stakeholder interests in particular are often an important impediment to the realization and success of projects. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are potentially useful for facilitating conflict resolution among stakeholder groups. However, some studies that have applied MCDA methods indicate that users are often skeptical about the value of MCDA methods and prefer the freedom of unaided decision making. We examine whether and how multi-attribute value theory (MAVT), a particular kind of MCDA, facilitates conflict resolution in environmental projects. Therefore, the MAVT method is applied to a specific river rehabilitation project in Switzerland (Thur River). The main questions are: (1) Can the MAVT method predict the final preferences of stakeholders and therefore anticipate conflicts at an early stage? (2) Do stakeholders reconsider and change their preferences after using the MAVT method? (3) If they do, does this result in more consensus-oriented decisions? We find that the principal advantage of the method in our case was not the prediction of stakeholders' final preferences, but rather the methods' ability to facilitate more consensus-oriented decisions. The paper discusses possible reasons for this finding and concludes with recommendations for future applications of the MAVT method in environmental decision making. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Attribute-based differentiation of alternativesJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 6 2002Article first published online: 5 DEC 200, Jeffrey M. Keisler Abstract An intermediate step is introduced to the dialogue decision process for decision analysis. Alternatives are refined after they have been generated within a strategy table but before they are subject to more detailed evaluation. Two or more judges create a subjective mapping from alternatives to attributes that will later be mapped to criteria. In strategy tables, each of the alternative strategies consists of a coherent set of choices made across several decisions that are to be coordinated. These strategic alternatives are modified so as to increase their differentiation in the attribute space, rather than in the decision space alone. When criteria weights are unknown, the best alternative from the modified set may be superior to the best alternative from the original set. Furthermore, analysis of the resulting alternatives may yield a better mapping of the value response surface for the action space, in the sense that this mapping leads to eventual construction of a higher value alternative. Results are reported for a consulting engagement incorporating the proposed step. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Legitimacy and quality of multi-criteria environmental policy analysis: a meta analysis of five MCE studies in NorwayJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 2 2001Fred Wenstøp Abstract This paper argues for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) as a tool in environmental policy analysis. From an ethical point of view, neither rule-based methods, nor benefit,cost analyses (BCA) are sufficient. Multi-criteria decision analysts need, however, to be concerned about the legitimacy and quality of their applications. Neuro-physiological evidence indicates that a necessary, but not sufficient, criterion for quality is that the decision-makers experience emotions in the valuation process. Without emotions, and in contrast to popular belief, its valuation part is liable to be out of proportion with the range of values held by reasonable selections of the society. This paper proposes criteria for evaluation of legitimacy and quality, reviews five applications in Norway of MCDA for environmental policy, but finds that there is no clear relationship between the legitimacy and quality of the studies and their significance for decision-makers. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Reflections on ethics and MCA in environmental decisionsJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 2 2001Felix Rauschmayer Abstract The aim of decision analysis is normative. Consequently, at least in public spheres, one has to reflect on its normative foundation. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) uses aggregated evaluations on several criteria to recommend a decision. The claim for the adequacy of the recommended solution is usually based on the assumption that the interests of the decision-maker(s) are adequately assessed by the MC model (see, for example, Munda G. 1996. Cost,benefit analysis in integrated environmental assessment: some methodological issues. Ecological Economics19: 157,168). I argue that as a prerequisite to a normative foundation, the criteria have to reflect not only the interests but possibly all values stemming from normative arguments of the decision-maker(s). These arguments might differ substantially from each other. This is especially true for environmental decisions. The integration of values will result in changes of the MCA understanding, criteria building, and aggregation method, and will not be possible without analytical capacities of the decision analyst in ethics. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A Multi-Criteria Group Decisionmaking Model for Supplier RatingJOURNAL OF SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2002C. Muralidharan SUMMARY An important problem in decision analysis is the evaluation of the difference between two or more different rankings for a set of alternatives. A novel model based on the aggregation technique for combining group member's preferences into one consensus ranking is suggested in this article. The model developed may be used to develop consensus and evolve ranking of alternatives. The application of the model is demonstrated through a case for supplier rating. The advantages of the proposed approach are also highlighted. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||