Home  About us  Contact
 

Currency Trade (currency + trade)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting100%

Selected Abstracts

One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade

ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 30 2000
Andrew K. Rose
A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade. The panel data, bilateral observations for five years during 1970,90 covering 186 countries, includes 300+ observations in which both countries use the same currency. I find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade, and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility, even after controlling for a host of features, including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate regime. These effects, statistically significant, imply that two countries sharing the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different currencies. Currency unions like the European EMU may thus lead to a large increase in international trade, with all that that entails. [source]

Announcement effects on exchange rates

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2009
Mikael Bask
Abstract An asset pricing model for exchange rate determination is presented, where technical analysis in currency trade is incorporated in the form of a moving average technique. As a result, the model has jmax+1 rational expectations equilibria (REE), where jmax is large, since jmax past exchange rates affect the current rate due to technical analysis. There is, however, a unique REE that is economically relevant, and focusing on this REE, it is shown that the exchange rate is much more sensitive to a change in money supply than when technical analysis is absent in currency trade. This result is important since it sheds light on the so-called exchange rate disconnect puzzle in international finance. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Chartism and exchange rate volatility,

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2007
Mikael Bask
Abstract The purpose of this paper is to implement theoretically, the observation that the relative importance of fundamental versus technical analysis in the foreign exchange market depends on the time horizon in currency trade. For shorter time horizons, more weight is placed on technical analysis, while more weight is placed on fundamental analysis for longer horizons. The theoretical framework is the Dornbusch overshooting model, where moving averages is the technical trading technique used by the chartists. The perfect foresight path near long-run equilibrium is derived, and it is shown that the magnitude of exchange rate overshooting is larger than in the Dornbusch model. Specifically, the extent of overshooting depends inversely on the time horizon in currency trade. How changes in the model's structural parameters endogenously affect this time horizon and the magnitude of overshooting along the perfect foresight path are also derived. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Extending the economics of disorganization

THE ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION, Issue 1 2001
Alan A. Bevan
Many of the states of the former Soviet Union have experienced a dramatic collapse of output during transition, which has not yet been reversed in a sustainable way. The economics of disorganization, proposed by Blanchard (1997) and tested empirically by Blanchard and Kremer (1997), reasons that this phenomenon can be explained by specificity of inputs and the breakdown of traditional domestic supply linkages. We replicate the Blanchard-Kremer study for Ukraine and Kazakhstan, and also find that longer and more complex domestic supply chains are associated with greater reductions in output. When we extend their analysis to incorporate measures of the complexity of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) trade and non-CIS trade however, we find that complexity of non-CIS trade is the significant factor in explaining the output collapse. We therefore argue that the disintegration of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance and the requirement of hard currency trade, are equally, if not more, significant in explaining the output declines experienced by Ukraine and Kazakhstan. [source]

What determines transaction costs in foreign exchange markets?

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2008
Tarun Ramadorai
Abstract Using detailed data on the currency transactions of institutional fund managers, this paper shows that funds that experience high returns on their currency holdings also incur lower transaction costs on their currency trades. This finding holds both in the cross section, i.e. funds that perform better on average incur lower average transaction costs, as well as in time series, i.e. funds that do better over the past two months incur lower transaction costs on subsequent transactions. The results are consistent with foreign exchange dealers bidding for information from successful traders. They are also consistent with foreign exchange dealers exploiting price inelastic demand for foreign currency trades, or funds acting as secondary liquidity providers in foreign exchange markets. The paper also investigates the role of fund size, transaction frequency and return volatility on transactions costs. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]