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Cross-sectional Variation (cross-sectional + variation)
Selected AbstractsConservatism and Cross-Sectional Variation in the Post,Earnings Announcement DriftJOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006GANAPATHI NARAYANAMOORTHY ABSTRACT Accounting conservatism allows me to identify a previously undocumented source of predictable cross-sectional variation in Standardized Unexpected Earnings' autocorrelations viz. the sign of the most recent earnings realization and present evidence that the market ignores this variation ("loss effect"). It is possible to earn returns higher than from the Bernard and Thomas (1990) strategy by incorporating this feature. Additionally, the paper shows that the "loss effect" is different from the "cross quarter" effect shown by Rangan and Sloan (1998) and it is possible to combine the two effects to earn returns higher than either strategy alone. Thus, the paper corroborates the Bernard and Thomas finding that stock prices fail to reflect the extent to which quarterly earnings series differ from a seasonal random walk and extends it by showing that the market systematically underestimates time-series properties resulting from accounting conservatism. [source] Determinants of Cross-Sectional Variation in Discount Rates, Growth Rates and Exit Cap RatesREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2004Åke Gunnelin This study investigates the determinants of key input variables in valuers' discounted cash flow models used for estimating market values for offices. Data from 599 valuations in 2000 from Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö are used to explain variation in discount rates, expected growth rates in net operating income and exit cap rates. Our ability to explain the relatively wide variation in appraisal assumptions with plausible covariates generates confidence in the appraisal process. This has important implications because most value and returns indices of commercial real estate worldwide are appraisal based. [source] Conditional Asset Pricing and Stock Market Anomalies in EuropeEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2010Rob Bauer G12; G14 Abstract This study provides European evidence on the ability of static and dynamic specifications of the Fama-French (1993) three-factor model to price 25 size-B/M portfolios. In contrast to US evidence, we detect a small-growth premium and find that the size effect is still present in Europe. Furthermore, we document strong time variation in factor risk loadings. Incorporating these risk fluctuations in conditional specifications of the three-factor model clearly improves its ability to explain time variation in expected returns. However, the model still fails to completely capture cross-sectional variation in returns as it is unable to explain the momentum effect. [source] IPO Prospectus Information and Subsequent PerformanceFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2003Harjeet S. Bhabra G3/G32 Abstract Initial public offerings underperform in the long run; however, there is very little evidence on their cross-sectional variation. Using a random sample of IPOs from 1987 through 1991 and gathering their prospectus data, we show that financial and operating characteristics as well as offering characteristics have a limited relation with the one-year stock returns. We also find that firms that subsequently reissue equity or merge outperform their matched-firm benchmarks over three years. Underperformance is most severe for the smaller and younger firms. We find that prospectus information is more useful to predict survival/failure compared to subsequent equity offerings or acquisitions. [source] Aggregate Earnings and Asset PricesJOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 5 2009RAY BALL ABSTRACT A principal-components analysis demonstrates that common earnings factors explain a substantial portion of firm-level earnings variation, implying earnings shocks have substantial systematic components and are not almost fully diversifiable as prior literature has concluded. Furthermore, the principal components of earnings and returns are highly correlated, implying aggregate earnings risks and return risks are related. In contrast to previous studies, the correlation we report between the systematic components of earnings and returns is stable over time. We also show that the earnings factors are priced, in the sense that the sensitivities of securities' returns to the earnings factors explain a significant portion of the cross-sectional variation in returns, even controlling for return risk. This suggests earnings performance is an underlying source of priced risk. Our evidence that the information sets of returns and earnings are jointly determined implies cash flow risk and return risk are not fully separable, and raises the possibility that it is the common variation of earnings and returns that is priced. [source] Conservatism and Cross-Sectional Variation in the Post,Earnings Announcement DriftJOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006GANAPATHI NARAYANAMOORTHY ABSTRACT Accounting conservatism allows me to identify a previously undocumented source of predictable cross-sectional variation in Standardized Unexpected Earnings' autocorrelations viz. the sign of the most recent earnings realization and present evidence that the market ignores this variation ("loss effect"). It is possible to earn returns higher than from the Bernard and Thomas (1990) strategy by incorporating this feature. Additionally, the paper shows that the "loss effect" is different from the "cross quarter" effect shown by Rangan and Sloan (1998) and it is possible to combine the two effects to earn returns higher than either strategy alone. Thus, the paper corroborates the Bernard and Thomas finding that stock prices fail to reflect the extent to which quarterly earnings series differ from a seasonal random walk and extends it by showing that the market systematically underestimates time-series properties resulting from accounting conservatism. [source] The Effects of Pre-issue Information Releases on Seasoned Equity OfferingsJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 9-10 2008Yi-Mien Lin Abstract:, Because of information asymmetry, managers tend to make pre-issue disclosures to reduce the costs of seasoned equity offerings. This paper discusses whether pre-issue information releases of major investments, financial forecast revisions and dividends help the investors to anticipate seasoned equity offerings and assist in reducing the information asymmetry when the managers announce equity issues. We analyze price and trading volume reactions to equity issue announcements to infer the degree of information asymmetry. Consistent with our expectations, we find that these three types of pre-issue disclosures can help investors to anticipate equity issues. However, after controlling for anticipation and cross-sectional variation in uncertainty, we find none of the disclosures are capable of reducing the price drop at issue announcement, and only the disclosures of increased cash dividends have the effect of reducing the negative trading volume reactions. In addition, both the price and trading volume reactions are not related to the intervals between the disclosures and the issue announcements. [source] Structural Changes in Expected Stock Returns Relationships: Evidence from ASEJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 9-10 2006Evangelos Karanikas Abstract:, This paper suggests a recursive application of Fama and MacBeth's (1973) testing procedure to assess the significance of macroeconomic factors and firm-specific effects priced in explaining the cross-sectional variation of expected stock returns over time. The paper applies the suggested testing procedure to investigate the source of risks of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). Among the variables examined, it finds out that the changes in the short term interest rates and firm size can explain a significant proportion of the variation of the ASE individual returns. The paper argues that the significance of interest rate changes can be associated with monetary policy changes introduced by the Greek authorities after the mid-nineties. These changes were focused on targeting interest rates, instead of monetary aggregates. [source] The Determinants of Implied Volatility: A Test Using LIFFE Option PricesJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 7-8 2000L. Copeland This paper presents and tests a model of the volatility of individual companies' stocks, using implied volatilities derived from option prices. The data comes from traded options quoted on the London International Financial Futures Exchange. The model relates equity volatilities to corporate earnings announcements, interest-rate volatility and to four determining variables representing leverage, the degree of fixed-rate debt, asset duration and cash flow inflation indexation. The model predicts that equity volatility is positively related to duration and leverage and negatively related to the degree of inflation indexation and the proportion of fixed-rate debt in the capital structure. Empirical results suggest that duration, the proportion of fixed-rate debt, and leverage are significantly related to implied volatility. Regressions using all four determining variables explain approximately 30% of the cross-sectional variation in volatility. Time series tests confirm an expected drop in volatility shortly after the earnings announcement and in most cases a positive relationship between the volatility of the stock and the volatility of interest rates. [source] Equity Valuation and Current Cost Disclosures: the Case of MexicoJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT & ACCOUNTING, Issue 3 2001Paquita Y. Davis-Friday This study uses an accounting-based valuation model to investigate the relation between the market value of publicly traded Mexican firms and their disclosures of price-level adjusted accounting information. The model is estimated on a sample of Mexican companies during 1987,1990, when annual inflation rates in Mexico decreased from 130 per cent to 20 per cent. The results indicate that general price level-adjusted and current cost disclosures explain a significant portion of the cross-sectional variation in the market-to-book ratios of the sample firms. Further, the explanatory power of holding gains is robust to decreases in the general level of inflation, which suggests that current cost and constant peso disclosures are relevant for determining firm value over a wide range of inflation rates. These results are particularly important now since the Mexican Institute of CPAs has proposed eliminating the measurement of holding gains in order to make Mexican financial statements more comparable to US and Canadian GAAP. [source] Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset ReturnsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 6 2009CHRISTOPHER J. MALLOY ABSTRACT We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by,stockholders. Exploiting microlevel household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional variation in average asset returns than aggregate or nonstockholder consumption risk, and implies more plausible risk aversion estimates. We find that risk aversion around 10 can match observed risk premia for the wealthiest stockholders across sets of test assets that include the 25 Fama and French portfolios, the market portfolio, bond portfolios, and the entire cross-section of stocks. [source] Cash Flow, Consumption Risk, and the Cross-section of Stock ReturnsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 2 2009ZHI DA ABSTRACT I link an asset's risk premium to two characteristics of its underlying cash flow: covariance and duration. Using empirically novel estimates of both cash flow characteristics based exclusively on accounting earnings and aggregate consumption data, I examine their dynamic interaction in a two-factor cash flow model and find that they are able to explain up to 82% of the cross-sectional variation in the average returns on size, book-to-market, and long-term reversal-sorted portfolios for the period 1964 to 2002. This finding highlights the importance of fundamental cash flow characteristics in determining the risk exposure of an asset. [source] Corporate Financial Policy and the Value of CashTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 4 2006MICHAEL FAULKENDER ABSTRACT We examine the cross-sectional variation in the marginal value of corporate cash holdings that arises from differences in corporate financial policy. We begin by providing semi-quantitative predictions for the value of an extra dollar of cash depending upon the likely use of that dollar, and derive a set of intuitive hypotheses to test empirically. By examining the variation in excess stock returns over the fiscal year, we find that the marginal value of cash declines with larger cash holdings, higher leverage, better access to capital markets, and as firms choose greater cash distribution via dividends rather than repurchases. [source] Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond YieldsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 6 2003John Y. Campbell This paper explores the effect of equity volatility on corporate bond yields. Panel data for the late 1990s show that idiosyncratic firm-level volatility can explain as much cross-sectional variation in yields as can credit ratings. This finding, together with the upward trend in idiosyncratic equity volatility documented by Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001), helps to explain recent increases in corporate bond yields. [source] The Diversification Discount: Cash Flows Versus ReturnsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 5 2001Owen A. Lamont Diversified firms have different values from comparable portfolios of single-segment firms. These value differences must be due to differences in either future cash flows or future returns. Expected security returns on diversified firms vary systematically with relative value. Discount firms have significantly higher subsequent returns than premium firms. Slightly more than half of the cross-sectional variation in excess values is due to variation in expected future cash flows, with the remainder due to variation in expected future returns and to covariation between cash flows and returns. [source] THE INFORMATIONAL ROLE OF BANK LOAN RATINGSTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006Ha-Chin Yi Abstract We analyze the relatively new phenomenon of credit ratings on syndicated loans, asking first whether they convey information to the capital markets. Our event studies show that initial loan ratings and upgrades are not informative, but downgrades are. The market anticipates downgrades to some extent, however. We also examine whether public information reflecting borrower default characteristics explains cross-sectional variation in loan ratings and find that ratings are only partially predictable. Our evidence suggests that loan and bond ratings are not determined by the same model. Finally, we estimate a credit spread model incorporating bank loan ratings and other factors reflecting default risk, information asymmetry, and agency problems. We find that ratings are related to loan rates, given the effect of other influences on yields, suggesting that ratings provide information not reflected in financial information. Ratings may capture idiosyncratic information about recovery rates, as each of the agencies claims, or information about default prospects not available to the market. [source] Is Board Size an Independent Corporate Governance Mechanism?KYKLOS INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, Issue 3 2004Stefan Beiner SUMMARY Using a simultaneous equations framework with a comprehensive set of publicly listed Swiss companies, our findings suggest that the size of the board of directors is an independent corporate governance mechanism. This implies that any potential relationship between board size and firm valuation is indeed causal. However, in contrast to previous studies, we do not uncover a significant relationship between board size and firm valuation, which can be interpreted as support for the hypothesis of the existence of an optimal board size. On average, firms choose the number of board members just optimally. This indicates that cross-sectional variations in board size to a large extent reflect differences in firms' underlying environment, and not mistaken choices. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Die Ergebnisse der Schätzung eines simultanen Gleichungssystems mit einer repräsentativen Stichprobe börsengehandelter Schweizer Unternehmen zeigen, dass die Grösse des Verwaltungsrates einen eigenständigen Corporate Governance Mechanismus darstellt. Damit kann ein möglicher Zusammenhang zwischen der Grösse des Verwaltungsrates und dem Unternehmenswert als kausal interpretiert werden. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen aber keine Evidenz für einen derartigen Zusammenhang, was die Hypothese einer optimalen Grösse des Verwaltungsrates stützt. Im Durchschnitt weist der Verwaltungsrat Schweizer Unternehmen die optimale Grösse auf. Die Unterschiede in der Grösse der Verwaltungsräte der Stichprobenunternehmen können zum grossen Teil durch unternehmensspezifische Einflussgrössen erklärt werden, und sind nicht auf eine falsche Besetzung des Verwaltungsrates zurückzuführen. RÉSUMÉ En utilisant un système d'équations simultané, estimé sur l'ensemble des entreprises inscrites à la bourse suisse, nos résultats montrent que la taille du conseil d'administration résulte d'un mécanisme indépendant de gouvernance d'entreprise. Ceci implique qu'il existe véritablement un lien causal entre la taille du conseil d'administration et la valeur de l'entreprise. Néanmoins, contrairement aux études précédentes, nous n'avons pas découvert de relations significatives entre ces deux éléments, ce que l'on peut interpréter comme support pour l'hypothèse de l'existence d'une grandeur optimale du conseil d'administration. Le nombre de membres du conseil d'administration est en moyenne choisi de manière optimale. Ceci indique que la variation en coupe transversale de la taille du Conseil d'administration reflète en majeure partie des différences dans l'environnement de chaque enterprise plutôt que des mauvaises décisions. [source] Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment in OECD Countries: New Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks,OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 2 2006Mariam Camarero Abstract This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries covering the period 1956,2001. The tests exploit the cross-sectional variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a different number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and support the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analysed. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||