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Contemporary Climate (contemporary + climate)
Selected AbstractsContemporary richness of holarctic trees and the historical pattern of glacial retreatECOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2007Daniel Montoya The length of time land has been available for colonization by plants and other organisms could provide a partial explanation of the contemporary richness gradients of trees. According to this hypothesis, increasing times of land availability entail higher chances of recolonization, which eventually have positive effects on tree richness. To test this, we generated a dataset of the Holarctic trees and evaluated the influence of cell age, a measure of the time since an area became free of ice, on the observed tree richness gradients. We found that cell age is associated with richness in both Europe and North America, after controlling for contemporary climate patterns, suggesting that the historical pattern of glacial retreat in response to post-Pleistocene global warming has left a signal still detectable after at least 14,000 yr. The results were consistent using a range of modelling approaches or whether Europe and North America were analyzed separately or in concert. We conclude that, although secondary to contemporary climate, the post-glacial recolonization hypothesis is broadly supported at temperate latitudes. [source] Patterns and causes of species richness: a general simulation model for macroecologyECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 9 2009Nicholas J. Gotelli Abstract Understanding the causes of spatial variation in species richness is a major research focus of biogeography and macroecology. Gridded environmental data and species richness maps have been used in increasingly sophisticated curve-fitting analyses, but these methods have not brought us much closer to a mechanistic understanding of the patterns. During the past two decades, macroecologists have successfully addressed technical problems posed by spatial autocorrelation, intercorrelation of predictor variables and non-linearity. However, curve-fitting approaches are problematic because most theoretical models in macroecology do not make quantitative predictions, and they do not incorporate interactions among multiple forces. As an alternative, we propose a mechanistic modelling approach. We describe computer simulation models of the stochastic origin, spread, and extinction of species' geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous, gridded domain and describe progress to date regarding their implementation. The output from such a general simulation model (GSM) would, at a minimum, consist of the simulated distribution of species ranges on a map, yielding the predicted number of species in each grid cell of the domain. In contrast to curve-fitting analysis, simulation modelling explicitly incorporates the processes believed to be affecting the geographical ranges of species and generates a number of quantitative predictions that can be compared to empirical patterns. We describe three of the ,control knobs' for a GSM that specify simple rules for dispersal, evolutionary origins and environmental gradients. Binary combinations of different knob settings correspond to eight distinct simulation models, five of which are already represented in the literature of macroecology. The output from such a GSM will include the predicted species richness per grid cell, the range size frequency distribution, the simulated phylogeny and simulated geographical ranges of the component species, all of which can be compared to empirical patterns. Challenges to the development of the GSM include the measurement of goodness of fit (GOF) between observed data and model predictions, as well as the estimation, optimization and interpretation of the model parameters. The simulation approach offers new insights into the origin and maintenance of species richness patterns, and may provide a common framework for investigating the effects of contemporary climate, evolutionary history and geometric constraints on global biodiversity gradients. With further development, the GSM has the potential to provide a conceptual bridge between macroecology and historical biogeography. [source] The tropics: cradle, museum or casino?ECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 7 2008A dynamic null model for latitudinal gradients of species diversity Abstract Several ecological and evolutionary hypotheses have been proposed to explain the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), but a general model for this conspicuous pattern remains elusive. Mid-domain effect (MDE) models generate gradients of species diversity by randomly placing the geographic ranges of species in one- or two-dimensional spaces, thus excluding both evolutionary processes and the effect of contemporary climate. Traditional MDE models are statistical and static because they determine the size of ranges either randomly or based on empirical frequency distributions. Here we present a simple dynamic null model for the LDG that simulates stochastic processes of range shifts, extinction and speciation. The model predicts higher species diversity and higher extinction and speciation rates in the tropics, and a strong influence of range movements in shaping the LDG. These null expectations should be taken into consideration in studies aimed at understanding the many factors that generate latitudinal diversity gradients. [source] Could the tree diversity pattern in Europe be generated by postglacial dispersal limitation?ECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 6 2007Jens-Christian Svenning Abstract The relative importance of contemporary climate and history as controls of geographical diversity patterns is intensely debated. A key example is the controversy over the extent to which temperate tree distributions and diversity patterns reflect postglacial dispersal limitation. Here, we focus on Central and Northern Europe, and show that recent estimates of tree migration rates < 100 m year,1 imply that many species have probably not reached equilibrium with climate in this region. We then demonstrate that geographical accessibility from glacial refuges explains 78% of the geographical variation in the region's tree diversity and is a much stronger diversity predictor than climate. Finally, we show that realistic estimates of migration rates can be derived from the observed tree diversity pattern by assuming it to be purely dispersal driven. In conclusion, the tree diversity pattern in Central and Northern Europe could, to a large extent, be a result of postglacial dispersal limitation. [source] Climatic limits for the present distribution of beech (Fagus L.) species in the worldJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 10 2006Jingyun Fang Abstract Aim, Beech (Fagus L., Fagaceae) species are representative trees of temperate deciduous broadleaf forests in the Northern Hemisphere. We focus on the distributional limits of beech species, in particular on identifying climatic factors associated with their present range limits. Location, Beech species occur in East Asia, Europe and West Asia, and North America. We collated information on both the southern and northern range limits and the lower and upper elevational limits for beech species in each region. Methods, In total, 292 lower/southern limit and 310 upper/northern limit sites with available climatic data for all 11 extant beech species were collected by reviewing the literature, and 13 climatic variables were estimated for each site from climate normals at nearby stations. We used principal components analysis (PCA) to detect climatic variables most strongly associated with the distribution of beech species and to compare the climatic spaces for the different beech species. Results, Statistics for thermal and moisture climatic conditions at the lower/southern and upper/northern limits of all world beech species are presented. The first two PCA components accounted for 70% and 68% of the overall variance in lower/southern and upper/northern range limits, respectively. The first PCA axis represented a thermal gradient, and the second a moisture gradient associated with the world-wide distribution pattern of beech species. Among thermal variables, growing season warmth was most important for beech distribution, but winter low temperature (coldness and mean temperature for the coldest month) and climatic continentality were also coupled with beech occurrence. The moisture gradient, indicated by precipitation and moisture indices, showed regional differences. American beech had the widest thermal range, Japanese beeches the most narrow; European beeches occurred in the driest climate, Japanese beeches the most humid. Climatic spaces for Chinese beech species were between those of American and European species. Main conclusions, The distributional limits of beech species were primarily associated with thermal factors, but moisture regime also played a role. There were some regional differences in the climatic correlates of distribution. The growing season temperature regime was most important in explaining distribution of Chinese beeches, whilst their northward distribution was mainly limited by shortage of precipitation. In Japan, distribution limits of beech species were correlated with summer temperature, but the local dominance of beech was likely to be dependent on snowfall and winter low temperature. High summer temperature was probably a limiting factor for southward extension of American beech, while growing season warmth seemed critical for its northward distribution. Although the present distribution of beech species corresponded well to the contemporary climate in most areas, climatic factors could not account for some distributions, e. g., that of F. mexicana compared to its close relative F. grandifolia. It is likely that historical factors play a secondary role in determining the present distribution of beech species. The lack of F. grandifolia on the island of Newfoundland, Canada, may be due to inadequate growing season warmth. Similarly, the northerly distribution of beech in Britain has not reached its potential limit, perhaps due to insufficient time since deglaciation to expand its range. [source] Changing climate and historic-woodland structure interact to control species diversity of the ,Lobarion' epiphyte community in ScotlandJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 5 2007Christopher J. Ellis Abstract Question: How will changing climate and habitat structure interact to control the species diversity of lichen epiphytes? Location: Scotland. Method: Species richness (=diversity) of the epiphyte lichen community known as Lobarion (named after Lobaria pulmonaria) was quantified for 94 Populus tremula stands across Scotland, and compared in a predictive model to seven climate variables and eight measures of woodland structure. An optimum model was selected and used to project Lobarion diversity over the geographic range of the study area, based on IPCC climate change scenarios and hypothetical shifts in woodland structure. Results: Species diversity of the Lobarion community was best explained by three climate variables: (1) average annual temperature; (2) autumn and winter precipitation; in combination with (3) historic-woodland extent. Projections indicate a positive effect of predicted climate change on Lobarion diversity, consistent with the physiological traits of cyanobac-terial lichens comprising the Lobarion. However, the general response to climate is modified significantly by the effect on diversity of historic-woodland extent. Conclusions: Historic-woodland extent may exert an important control over local climate, as well as impacting upon the metapopulation dynamics of species in the Lobarion. In particular, a temporal delay in the response of Lobarion species to changed woodland structure is critical to our understanding of future climate change effects. Future Lobarion diversity (e.g. in the 2050s) may depend upon the interaction of contemporary climate (e.g. 2050s climate) and historic habitat structure (e.g. 1950s woodland extent). This is supported by previous observations for an extinction debt amongst lichen epiphytes, but suggests an extension of simple climate-response models is necessary, before their wider application to lichen epiphyte diversity. [source] | ||||||||||