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Contemporaneous Correlation (contemporaneous + correlation)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting80%

Selected Abstracts

A High-Frequency Investigation of the Interaction between Volatility and DAX Returns

EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2010
Philippe Masset
G10; G12; G13 Abstract One of the most noticeable stylised facts in finance is that stock index returns are negatively correlated with changes in volatility. The economic rationale for the effect is still controversial. The competing explanations have different implications for the origin of the relationship: Are volatility changes induced by index movements, or inversely, does volatility drive index returns? To differentiate between the alternative hypotheses, we analyse the lead-lag relationship of option implied volatility and index return in Germany based on Granger causality tests and impulse-response functions. Our dataset consists of all transactions in DAX options and futures over the time period from 1995 to 2005. Analyzing returns over 5-minute intervals, we find that the relationship is return-driven in the sense that index returns Granger cause volatility changes. This causal relationship is statistically and economically significant and can be clearly separated from the contemporaneous correlation. The largest part of the implied volatility response occurs immediately, but we also observe a smaller retarded reaction for up to one hour. A volatility feedback effect is not discernible. If it exists, the stock market appears to correctly anticipate its importance for index returns. [source]

Connecting Optimal Capital Investment and Equity Returns

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2005
R. Burt Porter
Economic theory predicts a contemporaneous correlation between equity returns and investment growth that is only weakly present in the data. By modifying the firm's production function to include a lag between investment decisions and expenditures, and after correcting for the temporal aggregation of investment, I find the predicted correlation to be present in the data. I estimate the model for 31 industries and find that investment returns are highly correlated with the industry portfolio equity returns. Further, the portion of investment returns orthogonal to equity returns is associated positively with changes in profitability and negatively with lagged differences between equity and investment returns. [source]

Temporal aggregation and spurious instantaneous causality in multiple time series models

JOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, Issue 6 2002
JÖRG BREITUNG
Large aggregation interval asymptotics are used to investigate the relation between Granger causality in disaggregated vector autoregressions (VARs) and associated contemporaneous correlation among innovations of the aggregated system. One of our main contributions is that we outline various conditions under which the informational content of error covariance matrices yields insight into the causal structure of the VAR. Monte Carlo results suggest that our asymptotic findings are applicable even when the aggregation interval is small, as long as the time series are not characterized by high levels of persistence. [source]

Realize the Realized Stock Index Volatility

ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 1 2004
Ho-Chuan (River) Huang
This paper constructs estimates of daily stock index volatilities and correlation using high-frequency (one-minute) intraday stock indices. The key feature of these ,realized' volatilities and correlations is that they are not only model-free but also approximately measurement-error-free. In fact, they can be treated as observed rather than latent, so that direct modeling and forecasting of the realized volatilities can be performed using conventional time series approaches. Some interesting results appear in the analysis. Despite the fact that the unstandardized returns are skewed to the right and have fatter tails than normal, the distributions of the raw returns scaled by the realized standard deviations appear to be approximately Gaussian. The unconditional distributions of the realized variances and covariances are leptokurtic as well as highly right-skewed, but the realized correlation tends to be approximately normally distributed. There is no evidence in support of asymmetric volatility effects commonly found in previous findings. However, we find strong evidence to support the fact that there exists high contemporaneous correlation between realized volatilities and high comovement between realized correlation and volatilities. [source]

Does Corporate Transparency Contribute to Efficient Resource Allocation?

JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 4 2009
JERE R. FRANCIS
ABSTRACT This paper examines whether a country's corporate transparency environment, which includes the quality of accounting information, contributes to efficient resource allocation. Based on a cross-country study of 37 manufacturing industries in 37 countries, we provide three pieces of related evidence. First, we find the contemporaneous correlations in industry growth rates across country pairs are higher when there is a greater level of corporate transparency in the country pairs, after controlling for country-level economic and financial development. Second, we find the influence of transparency on these correlations is stronger when country pairs are at similar levels of economic development (GDP). Finally, when we control for the level of transparency explained by a country's institutions in place, we find that residual transparency (unexplained by country-level factors) is associated with industry-specific growth rates. Taken together, the results are consistent with corporate transparency facilitating the allocation of resources across industry sectors. [source]