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Common Cycle (common + cycle)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting71%

Selected Abstracts

Permanent-transitory Decomposition in Var Models With Cointegration and Common Cycles

OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 4 2000
Alain Hecq
In this paper we derive permanent-transitory decompositions of non-stationary multiple times series generated by (r)nite order Gaussian VAR(p) models with both cointegration and serial correlation common features. We extend existing analyses to the two classes of reduced rank structures discussed in Hecq, Palm and Urbain (1998). Using the corresponding state space representation of cointegrated VAR models in vector error correction form we show how decomposition can be obtained even in the case where the number of common feature and cointegration vectors are not equal to the number of variables. As empirical analysis of US business fluctuations shows the practical relevance of the approach we propose. [source]

Great ratios and Common Cycles: Do They Exist for the UK?

BULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 1 2001
Terence C. Mills
This paper investigates the dynamic interactions between postwar, quarterly UK consumption, investment and income within a VAR framework. Use is made of two developments which allow sets of restrictions to be tested and imposed, and which potentially make the VAR framework much more economically interpretable. One set is placed by neoclassical growth theory and involves the presence of common stochastic trends linking the secular movement of the series (i.e. the great ratios), while the other set is placed by notions of common, or more generally, codependent cycles which have their origin in ideas of comovements between growth rates. Evidence is found to support the existence of the great ratios for the UK, and evidence is also found of a codependent cycle of order one in the growth rates of consumption, investment and income, so that although the cycles are not exactly synchronized, the response of the three growth rates to a shock will be similar from two quarters after the shock has occurred. Moreover, it is lagged consumption shocks that are primarily driving the cycle. [source]

The cofilin activity cycle in lamellipodia and invadopodia

JOURNAL OF CELLULAR BIOCHEMISTRY, Issue 6 2009
Matthew Oser
Abstract The actin severing protein cofilin is essential for directed cell migration and chemotaxis, in many cell types and is also important for tumor cell invasion during metastasis. Through its severing activity, cofilin increases the number of free barbed ends to initiate actin polymerization for actin-based protrusion in two distinct subcellular compartments in invasive tumor cells: lamellipodia and invadopodia. Cofilin severing activity is tightly regulated and multiple mechanisms are utilized to regulate cofilin activity. In this prospect, we have grouped the primary on/off regulation into two broad categories, both of which are important for inhibiting cofilin from binding to F-actin or G-actin: (1) Blocking cofilin activity by the binding of cofilin to either PI(4,5)P2 at lamellipodia, or cortactin at invadopodia. (2) Blocking cofilin's ability to bind to actin via serine phosphorylation. Although the literature suggests that these cofilin regulatory mechanisms may be cell-type dependent, we propose the existence of a common cofilin activity cycle in which both operate. In this common cycle, the mechanism used to initiate cofilin activity is determined by the starting point in the cycle in a given subcellular compartment. J. Cell. Biochem. 108: 1252,1262, 2009. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source]

A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap,

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 1-2 2010
Matthieu Lemoine
Abstract We develop a new version of the production function (PF) approach for estimating the output gap of the euro area. Assuming a CES (constant elasticity of substitution) technology, our model does not call for any (often imprecise) measure of the capital stock and improves the estimation of the trend total factor productivity using a multivariate unobserved components model. With real-time data, we assess this approach by comparing it with the Hodrick,Prescott (HP) filter and with a Cobb,Douglas PF approach with common cycle and implemented with a multivariate unobserved components model. Our new PF estimate appears highly concordant with the reference chronology of turning points and has better real-time properties than the univariate HP filter for sufficiently long time horizons. Its inflation forecasting power appears, like the other multivariate approach, less favourable than the statistical univariate method. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

A Disaggregated Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle in UK Manufacturing

THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 4 2000
Hans-Martin Krolzig
Exploring index of production data for six major UK manufacturing sectors, we investigate the interaction of the UK business cycle with changes in the industrial structure of the UK economy during the last three decades. We propose a Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model with three regimes representing recession, normal growth and high growth. The regime shifts simultaneously affect the common growth rate and the sectoral equilibrium allocation of industrial production. In contrast to previous investigations, a common cycle can be uncovered which is closely related to traditional datings of the UK business cycle. [source]

The role of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining international health expenditures

HEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 10 2008
Paresh Kumar Narayan
Abstract While there is a growing literature that examines the issue of cointegration (co-movement over the long run) among health expenditures, there are no studies that examine the issue of common cycles (co-movement over the short run) among health expenditures. We undertake a multivariate variance decomposition analysis of per capita health expenditures of the USA, the UK, Japan, Canada, and Switzerland based on a common-trend,common-cycle restriction framework, to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory innovations in explaining variations in per capita health expenditures in each of the five countries. Our main finding is that transitory shocks are more important in explaining per capita health expenditures in the UK, Japan, and Switzerland, while permanent shocks dominate variations in per capita health expenditures in the USA and Canada over short horizons. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?

CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2006
Elizabeth C. Wakerly
Another prevalent belief is that the Canadian regions respond symmetrically to the same aggregate shocks. A common trends / common cycles decomposition of Canadian regional outputs casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis and reveals trend shocks dominate fluctuations in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes in the short and long run, but not in British Columbia and the Prairies. Thus, Canadian regional output fluctuations are driven by an asymmetric and economically important set of disaggregate propagation and growth mechanisms. Our results point to a new Canadian macroeconomic research agenda. JEL classification: C32, E32, O47 Tendances communes et cycles communs au Canada: qui savaient que tant de choses se sont passées?, Il est généralement bien accepté que convergence il y a dans les niveaux de production régionaux au Canada. Une autre croyance est que les régions canadiennes répondent de manière symétrique aux mêmes chocs agrégés. Une décomposition des tendances communes et des cycles communs des productions régionales au Canada jette le doute sur l'hypothèse de convergence et montre que les chocs tendanciels dominent les fluctuations en Ontario, au Québec et dans les Maritimes à court et à long terme, mais pas en Colombie Britannique et dans le Prairies. Donc, les fluctuations du niveau régional de production au Canada sont enclenchées par un ensemble asymétrique et économiquement important de mécanismes désagrégés de propagation et de croissance. Ces résultats définissent un nouvel ordre du jour pour la recherche macro-économique au Canada. [source]