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Forecasting the Adoption of Genetically Modified Oilseed Rape Prognosen hinsichtlich der Einführung von gentechnisch verändertem Raps Prévisions sur l'adoption de colza transgénique

EUROCHOICES, Issue 2 2009
Gunnar Breustedt
Summary Forecasting the Adoption of Genetically Modified Oilseed Rape We explore farmers' willingness to adopt genetically modified oilseed rape prior to its commercial release and estimate the ,demand' for the new technology. The analysis is based upon experiments with arable farmers in Germany who were asked to choose among conventional and GM rapeseed varieties with different characteristics. Our analysis has shown that ex ante GM adoption decisions are driven by profit expectations and personal as well as farm characteristics. Monetary and technological determinants such as the gross margin advantage of GM oilseed rape varieties, expected liability from cross pollination and restricted flexibility in returning to conventional oilseed rape growing affect the willingness to adopt GM rape in the expected directions. The results further indicate that neighbourhood effects and public attitudes matter a lot, such that individual farmers may not feel entirely free in their technology choice. Our demand simulations suggest that monopolistic seed prices would be set at between ,50 and ,100 per hectare, leaving farmers with a small share of the GM rent. This raises the question as to whether the farmers surveyed would actually benefit from the approval of GM rape varieties if the technology were to be provided by a single firm. Nous explorons le consentement des agriculteurs à utiliser du colza transgénique avant sa mise en marché et estimons la demande de cette nouvelle technologie. L'analyse se fonde sur des expériences menées auprès de cultivateurs allemands à qui l'on a demandé de choisir entre des variétés de colza conventionnelles et transgéniques aux caractéristiques différentes. Notre analyse a montré que les décisions a priori concernant l'adoption de variétés transgéniques sont fonction des profits attendus et des caractéristiques de l'agriculteur et de l'exploitation. Les facteurs financiers et technologiques comme les avantages des variétés de colza transgénique en termes de marge brute, ainsi que les risques possibles de fertilisation croisée et les contraintes relatives au retour vers des cultures de colza conventionnelles ont les effets attendus sur le consentement à adopter des variétés transgéniques. Les résultats montrent également que les effets de voisinage et l'attitude du public comptent beaucoup, de sorte que les agriculteurs individuels pourraient ne pas se sentir complètement libres de choisir leur technologie. Nos simulations sur la demande semblent indiquer que les prix des semences en situation de monopole seraient fixés entre 50 et 100 , par hectare, ce qui laisserait aux agriculteurs une faible part de la rente transgénique. Cela soulève la question de savoir si les agriculteurs de l'enquête tireraient vraiment avantage de l'approbation de variétés de colza transgéniques si la technologie n'était fournie que par une seule compagnie. Wir untersuchen die Bereitschaft von Landwirten, gentechnisch veränderten Raps einzuführen, bevor dieser auf den Markt gebracht wird, und schätzen die ,Nachfrage' nach dieser neuen Technologie ein. Unsere Analyse stützt sich auf Versuche mit Ackerbauern in Deutschland, bei denen sich die Landwirte zwischen herkömmlichen und gentechnisch veränderten Rapssorten mit verschiedenen Eigenschaften entscheiden mussten. Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass ex ante die Entscheidungen über die Einführung von gentechnisch verändertem Raps aufgrund von Gewinnerwartungen sowie von persönlichen und betrieblichen Charakteristika getroffen werden. Monetäre und technologische Bestimmungsgrößen wie z.B. der Vorsprung des gentechnisch veränderten Raps beim Deckungsbeitrag, die erwartete Haftbarkeit bei Fremdbestäubung sowie die nur eingeschränkte Flexibilität, zum herkömmlichen Rapsanbau zurückkehren zu können, beeinflussen erwartungsgemäß die Bereitschaft, gentechnisch veränderten Raps anzubauen. Desweiteren zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass Nachbarschaftseffekte und öffentliche Meinungen eine große Rolle spielen, so dass sich einige Landwirte womöglich bei der Wahl der Technologie in ihrer Entscheidungsfreiheit eingeschränkt fühlen. Unsere Nachfragesimulationen deuten darauf hin, dass sich monopolistische Saatgutpreise zwischen EUR 50 und EUR 100 pro Hektar bewegen würden, so dass den Landwirten ein kleiner Teil der ökonomischen Rente der GV-Technologie verbliebe. Dies wirft die Frage auf, ob die betrachteten Landwirte überhaupt von der Zulassung der gentechnisch veränderten Rapssorten profitieren würden, wenn die Technologie nur von einem einzigen Unternehmen angeboten würde. [source]


Forecasting the Adoption of GM Oilseed Rape: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment in Germany

JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2008
Gunnar Breustedt
C42; C81; Q12; Q16 Abstract This paper explores farmers' willingness to adopt genetically modified (GM) oilseed rape prior to its commercial release and estimates the ,demand' for the new technology. The analysis is based upon choice experiments with 202 German arable farmers. A multinomial probit estimation reveals that GM attributes such as gross margin, expected liability from cross pollination, or flexibility in returning to conventional oilseed rape significantly affect the likelihood of adoption. Neighbouring farmers' attitudes towards GM cropping and a number of farmer and farm characteristics were also found to be significant determinants of prospective adoption. Demand simulations suggest that adoption rates are very sensitive to the profit difference between GM and non-GM rape varieties. A monopolistic seed price would substantially reduce demand for the new technology. A monopolistic seed supplier would reap between 45% and 80% of the GM rent, and the deadweight loss of the monopoly would range between 15% and 30% of that rent. The remaining rent for farmers may be too small to outweigh possible producer price discounts resulting from the costs of segregating GM and non-GM oilseed rape along the supply chain. [source]


Dual control of avirulence in Leptosphaeria maculans towards a Brassica napus cultivar with ,sylvestris -derived' resistance suggests involvement of two resistance genes

PLANT PATHOLOGY, Issue 2 2009
A. P. Van de Wouw
Blackleg disease (phoma stem canker) of Brassica napus (canola, oilseed rape) is caused by the fungus Leptosphaeria maculans. In some regions of Australia, resistance in oilseed rape cultivars derived from B. rapa subs. sylvestris (e.g. cv. Surpass 400) became ineffective within three years of commercial release. The genetic control of avirulence in L. maculans towards cv. Surpass 400 is described. When Australian field isolates were screened on this cultivar, three phenotypic classes were observed; virulent, intermediate and avirulent. Analysis of crosses between fungal isolates varying in their ability to infect cv. Surpass 400 demonstrated the presence of two unlinked avirulence genes, AvrLm1 and AvrLmS. Complementation of isolates (genotype avrLm1) with a functional copy of AvrLm1, and genotyping of field isolates using a molecular marker for AvrLm1 showed that virulence towards Rlm1 is necessary, but not sufficient, for expression of a virulent phenotype on cv. Surpass 400. Taken together, these data strongly suggest that cv. Surpass 400, with ,sylvestris -derived' resistance, contains at least two resistance genes, one of which is Rlm1. [source]


Do virus-resistant plants pose a threat to non-target ecosystems?

AUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2009

Abstract One key environmental risk associated with the release of novel disease-resistant plants is the potential for non-target host populations to acquire resistance genes and undergo enemy release, leading to damage to associated native plant populations in high conservation-value ecosystems. Unfortunately, the dynamics of most natural pathosystems are poorly understood, and risk assessment of disease-resistant plants remains a challenge. Here we describe the first stage of a multi-tiered risk assessment strategy aimed at quantifying potential ecological release in a model pathosystem (the weedy pasture species Trifolium repens infected with Clover yellow vein virus; ClYVV) in order to assess the level of risk posed by genetically modified and conventionally bred disease-resistant host genotypes to non-target plant communities in south-eastern Australia. Glasshouse inoculation and growth experiments using 14 ClYVV isolates and 20 wild T. repens lines collected from high conservation-value montane grassland and woodland communities show that viral infection reduces the survival and growth of host plants by on average 10,50%. However, T. repens lines exhibited variable levels of resistance and tolerance to virus infection and ClYVV isolates differed in infectivity and aggressiveness, with grassland isolates having a greater pathogenic effect on associated host plants than woodland isolates. We conclude that ClYVV potentially plays an important role in limiting the size of T. repens populations in some at-risk non-target ecosystems and that second-tier field experiments are required to adequately quantify the risk associated with the commercial release of V-R T. repens genotypes in Australia. [source]


Accessing other people's technology for non,profit research

AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2002
Carol Nottenburg
As patents and other forms of intellectual property become more pervasive in the next generation of biotechnologies, designing policies and practices to ensure sufficient freedom to operate (i.e., the ability to practice or use an innovation) will be crucial for non,profit research agencies, especially those intent on developing technologies destined for commercial release. Are non,profit organisations exempt from intellectual property claims? What constitutes infringement of a patent? How does a non,profit establish its freedom to operate? We address these issues in this paper and evaluate various options for accessing other people's technologies. Options include cross,licensing agreements, research,only or cost,free licences, market segmentation strategies, mergers or joint ventures, and patent pooling or clearinghouse mechanisms. Responding creatively to the new intellectual property environment will have far reaching consequences for the future of non,profit research. [source]