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Climatic Envelope (climatic + envelope)
Selected AbstractsWill climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America?GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 8 2008Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models Abstract Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years, we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular, we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies, northern Canada, and midwestern United States, but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used, the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario, Quebec, and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States, C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states, into midwestern states as far south as Colorado, and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied, southern Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed, when used with the HadCM3 climate projections, the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of ,very favourable' regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century, whereas, the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change. [source] Pollen,plant,climate relationships in sub-Saharan AfricaJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2007Julie Watrin Abstract Aim, To demonstrate that incorporating the bioclimatic range of possible contributor plants leads to improved accuracy in interpreting the palaeoclimatic record of taxonomically complex pollen types. Location, North Tropical Africa. Methods, The geographical ranges of selected African plants were extracted from the literature and geo-referenced. These plant ranges were compared with the pollen percentages obtained from a network of surface sediments. Climate-response surfaces were graphed for each pollen taxon and each corresponding plant species. Results, Several patterns can be identified, including taxa for which the pollen and plant distributions coincide, and others where the range limits diverge. Some pollen types display a reduced climate range compared with that of the corresponding plant species, due to low pollen production and/or dispersal. For other taxa, corresponding to high pollen producers such as pioneer taxa, pollen types display a larger climatic envelope than that of the corresponding plants. The number of species contained in a pollen taxon is an important factor, as the botanical species included in a taxon may have different geographical and climate distributions. Main conclusions, The comparison between pollen and plant distributions is an essential step towards more precise vegetation and climate reconstructions in Africa, as it identifies taxa that have a high correspondence between pollen and plant distribution patterns. Our method is a useful tool to reassess biome reconstructions in Africa and to characterize accurately the vegetation and climate conditions at a regional scale, from pollen data. [source] A biogeographical analysis of the European Atlantic lowland heathlandsJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 5 2010Javier Loidi Abstract Questions: What is the climatic envelope of European Atlantic heathlands and the relationship between their floristic geographical variability and climatic parameters? Are the biogeographic patterns extracted from genuine heath plants comparable to those extracted from the accompanying flora? To what extent does the species composition extracted from phytosociological data support the current theory of refuge areas of heath vegetation in southern Atlantic Europe during the Pleistocene ice ages? Location: Atlantic Europe and NW Morocco. Methods: The geographical territory in which Atlantic heathlands occur was divided into 23 sectors following geographic and chorological criteria. A presence,absence table with 333 taxa was then constructed with the available phytosociological data. The taxa were classified into different groups according to their phytosociological affinity. Several types of numerical analysis were performed with this matrix and the climatic data obtained from meteorological sources. Results: Heathlands require a humid and oceanic climate and are limited by cold temperatures in the north and by summer droughts in the south. The highest floristic richness of this vegetation type is found in NW Iberia. Ordinations indicate a strong correlation between floristic composition of biogeographic sector and summer drought (Ios) and thermicity (It). Conclusions: The main climatic factors determining lowland heathland floristic distribution are thermicity and summer drought. The current optimal conditions for heath flora in NW Iberia suggest that there were southern refuges during the Pleistocene ice ages from which northward expansion has taken place. [source] Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate changeMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 17 2010VICTORIA L. SORK Abstract Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971,2000) and future (2070,2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions. [source] Ecological biogeography of species of Gelonus, Acantholybas and Amorbus in AustraliaAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2002Martin J. Steinbauer Abstract Geographic ranges and host plants of 10 species of Australian coreid, Gelonus tasmanicus, Acantholybas brunneus, Amorbus alternatus, Am. atomarius, Am. biguttatus, Am. bispinus, Am. obscuricornis, Am. rhombifer, Am. robustus and Am. rubiginosus, were summarized using data from specimen collection labels and sampling. One process (CLIMEX) and two correlative range-modelling programs (BIOCLIM and DOMAIN) were used to infer the bioclimatic profiles of each species. By inference from the maximum range predictions made by CLIMEX, the suggestion that G. tasmanicus, Am. atomarius and Am. obscuricornis are temperate species was supported. Similarly, the suggestions that Ac. brunneus was a subtropical species and Am. biguttatus and Am. rhombifer are predominantly tropical species were supported. That Am. alternatus, Am. robustus and Am. rubiginosus are apparently ubiquitous species was supported. Comparison of the bioclimatic profiles of the habitats of G. tasmanicus and Am. obscuricornis within Tasmania using BIOCLIM supported information available in the published literature, that is, that G. tasmanicus is better suited to sites at higher elevations than Am. obscuricornis. In addition, the suggestion that the regions of high Amorbus species endemism should overlap with regions of high eucalypt species endemism was also supported. This finding is taken as evidence that the evolutionary radiation of Amorbus has followed that of the eucalypts. Using these models we have obtained preliminary insights into the biology of each species and the environmental characteristics of their preferred climatic envelope. This is an achievement that might never have been attained through concentrated study given that these insects can vary from being rare to, at best, locally common in occurrence. [source] | ||||||||||