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Climate Shifts (climate + shift)
Selected AbstractsEffect of late 1970's climate shift on tropospheric biennial oscillation,role of local Indian Ocean processes on Asian summer monsoonINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2010Prasanth A Pillai Abstract The tropical climate has undergone noticeable changes on interdecadal time scales. The climate shift that occurred in the late 1970s attained enormous attention owing to its global-scale variations in ocean temperature, heat content and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties. Earlier studies presented the effect of this shift on ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon,ENSO relationship. The present study is an attempt to investigate the effect of late 1970's climate shift on tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO), which is an important tropical phenomenon that includes both air,sea processes in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions. TBO is the tendency for the Asian,Australian monsoon system to alternate between relatively strong and weak years. The study comprises a detailed analysis of the TBO cycle in the time periods before (1951,1975) and after (1978,2002) the climate shift in 1976 with the help of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) data sets of 200-hPa velocity potential; the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation are more obvious after the shift, although they were significant in the Pacific Ocean before 1976. The effect of ENSO in the biennial cycle is reduced with climate shift. The persistence of Asian-to-Australian summer monsoon has weakened in recent decades, as it is controlled by ENSO. Local oceanic processes in the Indian Ocean and local monsoon Hadley circulation have an increased role in the biennial oscillation of the Asian summer monsoon after 1976. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Effect of the climate shift around mid 1970s on the relationship between wintertime Ural blocking circulation and East Asian climateINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2010Lin Wang Abstract Blocking variability over the Ural Mountain region in the boreal winter and its relationship with the East Asian winter climate is investigated. The climate shift around mid 1970s has been shown to exert a significant influence on the blocking pattern. In contrast with the years before 1976/1977, the Ural blocking signal after 1976/1977 is found to propagate less into the stratosphere and more eastward in the troposphere to East Asia, which therefore exerts more influence on the East Asian winter climate. This enhanced Ural blocking,East Asian climate relationship amplifies the impact of Ural blocking on East Asia and, with the background of decreasing Ural blocking, contributes to the higher frequency of warm winters in this region. Further analyses suggest that the NAM-related stratospheric polar vortex strength and its modulation on the propagation of atmospheric stationary waves can account for this change, with the key area being located in the North Atlantic region. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Southern hemisphere cyclones and anticyclones: recent trends and links with decadal variability in the Pacific OceanINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2007Dr Alexandre Bernardes Pezza Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the association between the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and the decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean (PO). We discuss a pattern of coherent large-scale anomalies and trends in cyclone and anticyclone behaviour in light of the climate variability in the PO over the ERA40 reanalysis period (1957,2002). The two representative PO indices are the Pacific Decadal and Interdecadal Oscillations (PDO and IPO), and here the PDO is chosen owing to it being less associated with the southern oscillation index (SOI). Composites of the indicators of the density and intensity of cyclones/anticyclones given by an automatic tracking scheme were calculated for the years when the PDOI was more than one standard deviation above or below its mean. Although the ERA40 is not free from noise and assimilation changes, the results show a large-scale feature, which seems to be robust and agrees with earlier studies using different data sets. The sea-level pressure shows a strong annular structure related to the PDO, which is not seen for the SOI, with lower pressure around Antarctica during the positive phase and vice versa. More intense (and fewer) cyclones and anticyclones were observed during the positive PDO. This is less consistent for the SOI, particularly during the summer when a different PDO/SOI pattern arises at high latitudes. The trends project a pattern coincident with the positive PDO phase and seem to be linked with the main climate shift in the late seventies. Trends observed over the Tasman Sea are consistent with declining winter rainfall over southeastern Australia. Most patterns are statistically significant and seem robust, but random changes in ENSO may play a part, to a certain degree, in modulating the results, and a physical mechanism of causality has not been demonstrated. Although global warming and related changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) may also help explain the observed behaviour, the large-scale response presented here provides a new insight and would be of considerable interest for further modelling studies. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño propertiesTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 607 2005H. Annamalai Abstract Diagnostics from observed precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis products reveal that after the 1976,77 climate shift in the Pacific there was a dramatic change in the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to El Niño, particularly during the months of July and August. Based on 1950,75 (PRE76) and 1977,2001 (POST76) El Niño composites: the western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) was stronger than normal in both periods; the ISM was weaker than normal during the entire monsoon season in PRE76, but in POST76 was weaker only during the onset and withdrawal phases. In terms of observed sea surface temperature (SST) during July,August, the major differences between the two periods are the presence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo,Pacific warm pool and the intensity of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific in POST76. The effect of these differences on the ISM is investigated in a suite of experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) that has a realistic monsoon precipitation climatology. Separate ten-member ensemble simulations with the AGCM were conducted for PRE76 and POST76 El Niño events with SST anomalies inserted as follows: (i) tropical Indo,Pacific (TIP), (ii) tropical Pacific only (TPO), and (iii) tropical Indian Ocean only (TIO). Qualitatively, TPO solutions reproduce the observed differences in the monsoon response in both periods. Specifically, during July,August of POST76 the cold SST anomalies in conjunction with remote subsidence suppress precipitation (3,5 mm day,1) over the maritime continent and equatorial central Indian Ocean. Inclusion of Indian Ocean SST anomalies in the TIP runs further suppresses precipitation over the entire equatorial Indian Ocean. The low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies that develop as a Rossby-wave response to these convective anomalies increase the south-westerlies over the northern Indian Ocean, and favour a stronger ISM and WNPM. During PRE76 the non-occurrence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo,Pacific warm pool reinforces El Niño's suppression on the ISM. In contrast, TIO solutions show a reduced ISM during July,August of POST76; the solutions, however, show a significant effect on the WNPM during both PRE76 and POST76 periods. It is argued that SSTs over the entire tropical Indo,Pacific region need to be considered to understand the El Niño Southern Oscillation,monsoon linkage, and to make predictions of rainfall over India and the western North Pacific. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The late Miocene to Pleistocene ice-rafting history of southeast GreenlandBOREAS, Issue 1 2002KRISTEN E. K. ST. JOHN Analysis of a Miocene-Pleistocene ice-rafted debris (IRD) record from the western Irminger Basin provides evidence for the initiation and long-term behavior of the SE portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet. In the late Miocene (,7.3 Ma), IRD supply to Ocean Drilling Program site 918 increased significantly indicating that glaciers large enough to reach sea level were present in SE Greenland long before the onset of widespread Northern Hemisphere glaciation. IRD accumulated at this site throughout the Pliocene and Pleistocene, supporting the hypothesis that SE Greenland was a key nucleation area for the formation of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Since glacial onset, the western Irminger Basin IRD record is characterized by a succession of episodes with high IRD mass accumulation rates (MARs). The site 918 IRD record indicates that greatest iceberg production in SE Greenland occurred during major climatic transitions (e.g. widespread Northern Hemisphere glacial expansion at 2.7 Ma and the mid-Pleistocene climate shift at 0.9 Ma), and that SE Greenland sometimes also led the northern North Atlantic region in glacial response to climatic forcing (e.g. glacial intensification at ,4.8 and, along with NE Greenland, at ,3.5 Ma). [source] Temporal and spatial responses of British Columbia steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) populations to ocean climate shiftsFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2000Welch The pattern of temporal change in recruitment of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) entering the ocean between 1963 and 1990 was geographically coherent in all regions of British Columbia. A major increase in recruitment was evident for smolts entering the ocean after 1977. Subsequently, an out-of-phase response occurred after 1990, indicating that the effect of a possible 1990 regime shift had both temporal and geographical structure. Steelhead entering northern regions had increasing recruitment, while steelhead entering southern BC coastal regions had sharply decreasing recruitment. The evidence clearly indicates that the overall recruitment response since 1977 was primarily shaped by changes in marine (not freshwater) survival. Similar sudden changes in adult recruitment also appear to be occurring for other species of Pacific salmon in BC and Oregon, such as coho (O. kisutch), which appear to occur suddenly and show considerable persistence. A possible explanation for the change is that ocean productivity declined in coastal regions of southern BC after 1990, reducing the marine growth of juvenile salmon. The Bakun upwelling index shows a pattern of geographical coherence along the west coast of North America that could in principle explain the observed pattern of changes in recruitment. However, no evidence for a temporal shift in this index occurring around 1977 and 1990 is apparent. The reason for the sudden and persistent decline in ocean survival is therefore uncertain. [source] Structural patterns in coarse gravelriver beds: typology, survey and assessment of the roles of grain size and river regimeGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2002Lea Wittenberg The concept of river-bed stability as indexed by the occurrence of stable bed forms was examined in humid-temperate perennial streams and in Mediterranean ephemeral streams. The study examined the structural patterns of bed forms and their spatial distribution between temperate-humid and Mediterranean streams. Study sites in Northumberland, UK, and Mt. Carmel, Israel, were selected for their morphometric similarity, despite the contrast in climate, vegetation and hydrological regime. Fieldwork was based on a large number of Wolman grain size distributions and structure measurements along cross-sections at seven sites; Differences in mean grain size of bed structures were estimated using the general linear model (GLM) procedure and Duncan's multiple range test. Based on field evidence, river-bed configurations were divided into structural categories, according to the depositional setting of each measured particle on the river bed. Statistical analysis confirmed former qualitative descriptions of small-scale bed forms. The study identified spatial segregation in bed form distribution. In general, 30,40%of the bed material in the surveyed perennial streams was clustered, in contrast to approximately 10%in the ephemeral counterparts. The sorting index revealed higher values for the perennial streams, namely 2.39,3.59 compared with 1.73,2.07 for the ephemeral counterparts. It is suggested that the degree of sediment sorting and the proportion of clusters are strongly related. Sediment sorting, sediment supply and the hydrological regime explain the mechanism of cluster formation. It is assumed that climate shifts or human interference within river basins might affect the regional characteristic flood hydrograph, and consequently alter the sedimentary character of the river bed. In the case where river bed stability is reduced owing to changes in cluster bed form distribution, rivers that normally do not yield a significant amount of sediment might be subject to notable sedimentation problems. [source] Contemporary climate change in the Sonoran Desert favors cold-adapted speciesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2010SARAH KIMBALL Abstract Impacts of long-term climate shifts on the dynamics of intact communities within species ranges are not well understood. Here, we show that warming and drying of the Southwestern United States over the last 25 years has corresponded to a shift in the species composition of Sonoran Desert winter annuals, paradoxically favoring species that germinate and grow best in cold temperatures. Winter rains have been arriving later in the season, during December rather than October, leading to the unexpected result that plants are germinating under colder temperatures, shifting community composition to favor slow growing, water-use efficient, cold-adapted species. Our results demonstrate how detailed ecophysiological knowledge of individual species, combined with long-term demographic data, can reveal complex and sometimes unexpected shifts in community composition in response to climate change. Further, these results highlight the potentially overwhelming impact of changes in phenology on the response of biota to a changing climate. [source] Evaluation of soil saturation, soil chemistry, and early spring soil and air temperatures as risk factors in yellow-cedar declineGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2006D. V. D'AMORE Abstract Yellow-cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis (D. Don) Oerst.) is a valuable tree species that is experiencing a widespread decline and mortality in southeast Alaska. This study evaluated the relative importance of several potential risk factors associated with yellow-cedar decline: soil saturation, soil aluminum (Al) toxicity or calcium (Ca) deficiency, and air and soil temperature. Data were collected from permanent vegetation plots established in two low-elevation coastal forests exhibiting broad ranges of cedar mortality. Measurements of each risk factor were contrasted among classified forest zones to indicate if there were strong links with decline. Hydrology alone is weakly associated with yellow-cedar decline, but could have a predisposing role in the decline by creating exposed conditions because of reduced forest productivity. Yellow-cedar decline is not strongly associated with soil pH and extractable Al and Ca, but there appears to be Ca enrichment of surface soils by feedback from dead yellow-cedar foliage. Air and soil temperature factors are strongly associated with decline. Based on these results, an hypothesis is presented to explain the mechanism of tree injury where exposure-driven tree mortality is initiated in gaps created by soil saturation and then expands in gaps created by the tree-mortality itself. The exposure allows soils to warm in early spring causing premature dehardening in yellow-cedar trees and subsequent freezing injury during cold events. Yellow-cedars growing in the protection of shade or snow are not preconditioned by this warming, and thus not as susceptible to cold injury. Yellow-cedar decline appears to be associated with regional climate changes, but whether the cause of these changes is related to natural or human-induced climate shifts remains uncertain. Management implications, the possible role of climate, and recommended research are discussed. [source] Do dams and levees impact nitrogen cycling?GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 8 2005Simulating the effects of flood alterations on floodplain denitrification Abstract A fundamental challenge in understanding the global nitrogen cycle is the quantification of denitrification on large heterogeneous landscapes. Because floodplains are important sites for denitrification and nitrogen retention, we developed a generalized floodplain biogeochemical model to determine whether dams and flood-control levees affect floodplain denitrification by altering floodplain inundation. We combined a statistical model of floodplain topography with a model of hydrology and nitrogen biogeochemistry to simulate floods of different magnitude. The model predicted substantial decreases in NO3 -N processing on floodplains whose overbank floods have been altered by levees and upstream dams. Our simulations suggest that dams may reduce nitrate processing more than setback levees. Levees increased areal floodplain denitrification rates, but this effect was offset by a reduction in the area inundated. Scenarios that involved a levee also resulted in more variability in N processing among replicate floodplains. Nitrate loss occurred rapidly and completely in our model floodplains. As a consequence, total flood volume and the initial mass of nitrate reaching a floodplain may provide reasonable estimates of total N processing on floodplains during floods. This finding suggests that quantifying the impact of dams and levees on floodplain denitrification may be possible using recent advances in remote sensing of floodplain topography and flood stage. Furthermore, when considering flooding over the long-term, the cumulative N processed by frequent smaller floods was estimated to be quite large relative to that processed by larger, less frequent floods. Our results suggest that floodplain denitrification may be greatly influenced by the pervasive anthropogenic flood-control measures that currently exist on most majors river floodplains throughout the world, and may have the potential to be impacted by future changes in flood probabilities that will likely occur as a result of climate shifts. [source] Latitudinal diversity gradients for brachiopod genera during late Palaeozoic time: links between climate, biogeography and evolutionary ratesGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2007Matthew G. Powell ABSTRACT Aim, The latitudinal diversity gradient, in which taxonomic richness is greatest at low latitudes and declines towards the poles, is a pervasive feature of the biota through geological time. This study utilizes fossil data to examine how the latitudinal diversity gradient and associated spatial patterns covaried through the major climate shifts at the onset and end of the late Palaeozoic ice age. Location, Data were acquired from fossil localities from around the world. Methods, Latitudinal patterns of diversity, mean geographical range size and macroevolutionary rates were constructed from a literature-derived data base of occurrences of fossil brachiopod genera in space and time. The literature search resulted in a total of 18,596 occurrences for 991 genera from 2320 localities. Results, Climate changes associated with the onset of the late Palaeozoic ice age (c. 327 Ma) altered the biogeographical structure of the brachiopod fauna by the preferential elimination of narrowly distributed, largely tropical genera when glaciation began. Because the oceans were left populated primarily with widespread genera, the slope of the diversity gradient became gentle at this time, and the gradient of average latitudinal range size weakened. In addition, because narrowly distributed genera had intrinsically high rates of origination and extinction, the gradients of both of these macroevolutionary rates were also reduced. These patterns were reversed when the ice age climate abated in early Permian time (c. 290 Ma): narrowly distributed genera rediversified at low latitudes, restoring steep gradients of diversity, average latitudinal range size and macroevolutionary rates. Main conclusions, During late Palaeozoic time, these latitudinal gradients for brachiopods may have been linked by the increased magnitude of seasonality during the late Palaeozoic ice age. Pronounced seasonality would have prevented the existence of genera with narrow latitudinal ranges. These results for the late Palaeozoic ice age suggest a climatic basis for the present-day latitudinal diversity gradient. [source] Projecting the risk of future climate shiftsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2006David B. Enfield Abstract Recent research has shown that decadal-to-multidecadal (D2M) climate variability is associated with environmental changes that have important consequences for human activities, such as public health, water availability, frequency of hurricanes, and so forth. As scientists, how do we convert these relationships into decision support products useful to water managers, insurance actuaries, and others, whose principal interest lies in knowing when future climate regime shifts will likely occur that affect long-horizon decisions? Unfortunately, numerical models are far from being able to make deterministic predictions for future D2M climate shifts. However, the recent development of paleoclimate reconstructions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (Gray et al., 2004) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); (MacDonald and Case, 2005) give us a viable alternative: to estimate probability distribution functions from long climate index series that allow us to calculate the probability of future D2M regime shifts. In this paper, we show how probabilistic projections can be developed for a specific climate mode,the AMO as represented by the Gray et al. (2004) tree-ring reconstruction. The methods are robust and can be applied to any D2M climate mode for which a sufficiently long index series exists, as well as to the growing body of paleo-proxy reconstructions that have become available. The target index need not be a paleo-proxy calibrated against a climate index; it may profitably be calibrated against a specific resource of interest, such as stream flow or lake levels. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Sub-millennial climate shifts in the western Mediterranean during the last glacial period recorded in a speleothem from Mallorca, Spain,JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE, Issue 8 2008Edward J. Hodge Abstract Very few high-resolution and directly dated terrestrial archives of the last glacial period exist for the western Mediterranean region, yet this is a key locality for recording sub-millennial North Atlantic and Mediterranean climate change. Here, we present evidence of effective precipitation changes based on growth history and ,13C of calcite in a Mallorcan stalagmite that grew between 112 and 48,ka. Effective precipitation in Mallorca appears to have been sensitive to proximal sea surface temperature variations and at certain times, ca. 76,ka for example, changed rapidly from moist to arid conditions in only a few centuries. A sea-level highstand during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a interrupted growth. Regrowth started promptly after this, but effective precipitation decreased markedly for much of the later part of MIS 5a, and also for shorter periods correlative with Heinrich events H8 (ca. 90,ka) and H6 (ca. 65,ka), with growth ceasing during H5 (ca. 48,ka). Arid episodes in Mallorca appear to be expressions of extremely cold periods recorded further north in Europe and occur contemporaneously with rapid decreases in Greenland temperature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] 14C-dated fluctuations of the western flank of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet 45,25 kyr BP compared with Bølling,Younger Dryas fluctuations and Dansgaard,Oeschger events in GreenlandBOREAS, Issue 2 2010JAN MANGERUD Mangerud, J., Gulliksen, S. & Larsen, E. 2009: 14C-dated fluctuations of the western flank of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet 45,25 kyr BP compared with Bølling,Younger Dryas fluctuations and Dansgaard,Oeschger events in Greenland. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2009.00127.x. ISSN 0300-9483. We present 32 accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dates obtained on well-preserved bones from caves in western Norway. The resulting ages of 34,28 14C kyr BP demonstrate that the coast was ice-free during the so-called Ålesund Interstadial. New AMS 14C dates on shells aged 41,38 14C kyr BP are evidence of an earlier (Austnes) ice-free period. The Ålesund Interstadial correlates with Greenland interstadials 8,7 and the Austnes Interstadial with Greenland interstadials 12,11. Between and after the two interstadials, the ice margin reached onto the continental shelf west of Norway. These events can be closely correlated with the Greenland ice core stratigraphy, partly based on identification of the Laschamp and Mono Lake palaeomagnetic excursions. We found that the pattern of the NGRIP ,18O curves for the two periods Greenland Interstadial (GI) 8 to Greenland Stadial (GS) 8 and GI 1,GS 1 (Bølling,Younger Dryas) were strikingly similar, which leads us to suggest that the underlying causes of these climate shifts could have been the same. We therefore discuss some aspects of glacial fluctuations during the Bølling,Younger Dryas in order to elucidate processes during Dansgaard,Oeschger events. [source] | ||||||||||||||||