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Teaching and Learning Guide for: The Geopolitics of Climate Change

GEOGRAPHY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 5 2008
Jon Barnett
Author's Introduction Climate change is a security problem in as much as the kinds of environmental changes that may result pose risks to peace and development. However, responsibilities for the causes of climate change, vulnerability to its effects, and capacity to solve the problem, are not equally distributed between countries, classes and cultures. There is no uniformity in the geopolitics of climate change, and this impedes solutions. Author Recommends 1.,Adger, W. N., et al. (eds) (2006). Fairness in adaptation to climate change. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. A comprehensive collection of articles on the justice dimensions of adaptation to climate change. Chapters discuss potential points at which climate change becomes ,dangerous', the issue of adaptation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the unequal outcomes of adaptation within a society, the effects of violent conflict on adaptation, the costs of adaptation, and examples from Bangladesh, Tanzania, Botswana, and Hungary. 2.,Leichenko, R., and O'Brien, K. (2008). Environmental change and globalization: double exposures. New York: Oxford University Press. This book uses examples from around the world to show the way global economic and political processes interact with environmental changes to create unequal outcomes within and across societies. A very clear demonstration of the way vulnerability to environmental change is as much driven by social processes as environmental ones, and how solutions lie within the realm of decisions about ,development' and ,environment'. 3.,Nordås, R., and Gleditsch, N. (2007). Climate conflict: common sense or nonsense? Political Geography 26 (6), pp. 627,638. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.003 An up-to-date, systematic and balanced review of research on the links between climate change and violent conflict. See also the other papers in this special issue of Political Geography. 4.,Parry, M., et al. (eds) (2007). Climate change 2007: impacts adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. The definitive review of all the peer-reviewed research on the way climate change may impact on places and sectors across the world. Includes chapters on ecosystems, health, human settlements, primary industries, water resources, and the major regions of the world. All chapters are available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm 5.,Salehyan, I. (2008). From climate change to conflict? No consensus yet. Journal of Peace Research 45 (3), pp. 315,326. doi:10.1177/0022343308088812 A balanced review of research on the links between climate change and conflict, with attention to existing evidence. 6.,Schwartz, P., and Randall, D. (2003). An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for United States national security. San Francisco, CA: Global Business Network. Gives insight into how the US security policy community is framing the problem of climate change. This needs to be read critically. Available at http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=26231 7.,German Advisory Council on Global Change. (2007). World in transition: climate change as a security risk. Berlin, Germany: WBGU. A major report from the German Advisory Council on Global Change on the risks climate changes poses to peace and stability. Needs to be read with caution. Summary and background studies are available online at http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg2007_engl.html 8.,Yamin, F., and Depedge, J. (2004). The International climate change regime: a guide to rules, institutions and procedures. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. A clear and very detailed explanation of the UNFCCC's objectives, actors, history, and challenges. A must read for anyone seeking to understand the UNFCCC process, written by two scholars with practical experience in negotiations. Online Materials 1.,Environmental Change and Security Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars http://www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp The major website for information about environmental security. From here, you can download many reports and studies, including the Environmental Change and Security Project Report. 2.,Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project http://www.gechs.org This website is a clearing house for work and events on environmental change and human security. 3.,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/ From this website, you can download all the chapters of all the IPCC's reports, including its comprehensive and highly influential assessment reports, the most recent of which was published in 2007. The IPCC were awarded of the Nobel Peace Prize ,for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made (sic) climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change'. 4.,Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://www.tyndall.ac.uk The website of a major centre for research on climate change, and probably the world's leading centre for social science based analysis of climate change. From this site, you can download many publications about mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, and about various issues in the UNFCCC. 5.,United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change http://unfccc.int/ The website contains every major document relation to the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol, including the text of the agreements, national communications, country submissions, negotiated outcomes, and background documents about most key issues. Sample Syllabus: The Geopolitics of Climate Change topics for lecture and discussion Week I: Introduction Barnett, J. (2007). The geopolitics of climate change. Geography Compass 1 (6), pp. 1361,1375. United Nations Secretary General, Kofi Annan, address to the 12th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Nairobi, 15 November 2006. Available online at http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=495&ArticleID=5424&l=en Week II: The History and Geography of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Topic: The drivers of climate change in space and time Reading Baer, P. (2006). Adaptation: who pays whom? In: Adger, N., et al. (eds) Fairness in adaptation to climate change. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 131,154. Boyden, S., and Dovers, S. (1992). Natural-resource consumption and its environmental impacts in the Western World: impacts of increasing per capita consumption. Ambio 21 (1), pp. 63,69. Week III: The Environmental Consequences of climate change Topic: The risks climate change poses to environmental systems Reading Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate change 2007: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: summary for policymakers. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC Secretariat. Watch: Al Gore. The Inconvenient Truth. Weeks IV and V: The Social Consequences of Climate Change Topic: The risks climate change poses to social systems Reading Adger, W. N. (1999). Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam. World Development 27, pp. 249,269. Comrie, A. (2007). Climate change and human health. Geography Compass 1 (3), pp. 325,339. Leary, N., et al. (2006). For whom the bell tolls: vulnerability in a changing climate. A Synthesis from the AIACC project, AIACC Working Paper No. 21, International START Secretariat, Florida. Stern, N. (2007). Economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press (Chapters 3,5). Week VI: Mitigation of Climate Change: The UNFCCC Topic: The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Reading Najam, A., Huq, S., and Sokona, Y. (2003). Climate negotiations beyond Kyoto: developing countries concerns and interests. Climate Policy 3 (3), pp. 221,231. UNFCCC Secretariat. (2005). Caring for climate: a guide to the climate change convention and the Kyoto Protocol. Bonn, Germany: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat. Weeks VII and VIII: Adaptation to Climate Change Topic: What can be done to allow societies to adapt to avoid climate impacts? Reading Adger, N., et al. (2007). Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. In: Parry, M., et al. (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 717,744. Burton, I., et al. (2002). From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy. Climate Policy 2 (2,3), pp. 145,159. Eakin, H., and Lemos, M. C. (2006). Adaptation and the state: Latin America and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization. Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions 16 (1), pp. 7,18. Ziervogel, G., Bharwani, S., and Downing, T. (2006). Adapting to climate variability: pumpkins, people and policy. Natural Resources Forum 30, pp. 294,305. Weeks IX and X: Climate Change and Migration Topic: Will climate change force migration? Readings Gaim, K. (1997). Environmental causes and impact of refugee movements: a critique of the current debate. Disasters 21 (1), pp. 20,38. McLeman, R., and Smit, B. (2006). Migration as adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change 76 (1), pp. 31,53. Myers, N. (2002). Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 357 (1420), pp. 609,613. Perch-Nielsen, S., Bättig, M., and Imboden, D. (2008). Exploring the link between climate change and migration. Climatic Change (online first, forthcoming); doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9416-y Weeks XI and XII: Climate Change and Violent Conflict Topic: Will Climate change cause violent conflict? Readings Barnett, J., and Adger, N. (2007). Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Political Geography 26 (6), pp. 639,655. Centre for Strategic and International Studies. (2007). The age of consequences: the foreign policy and national security implications of global climate change. Washington, DC: CSIS. Nordås, R., and Gleditsch, N. (2007). Climate conflict: common sense or nonsense? Political Geography 26 (6), pp. 627,638. Schwartz, P., and Randall, D. (2003). An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for United States national security. San Francisco, CA: Global Business Network. [online]. Retrieved on 8 April 2007 from http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=26231 Focus Questions 1Who is most responsible for climate change? 2Who is most vulnerable to climate change? 3Does everyone have equal power in the UNFCCC process? 4Will climate change force people to migrate? Who? 5What is the relationship between adaptation to climate change and violent conflict? [source]

EU energy-intensive industries and emission trading: losers becoming winners?

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND GOVERNANCE, Issue 5 2009
Jorgen Wettestad
Abstract The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) initially treated power producers and energy-intensive industries similarly, despite clear structural differences between these industries regarding e.g. pass-through of costs. Hence, the energy-intensive industries could be seen as losing out in the internal distribution. In the January 2008 proposal for a reformed ETS post-2012, a differentiated system was proposed where the energy-intensive industries would come out relatively much better. Why is this? Although power producers still have a dominant position in the system, the increasing consensus about windfall profits has weakened their standing. Conversely, increasing attention to such profits and not least the possibility of global carbon leakage has strengthened the case of energy-intensive industries at both national and EU levels. These industries have become more active in EU processes and somewhat better organized. Finally, growing fear of lax global climate policies has strengthened the case of these industries further. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [source]

Forty years of numerical climate modelling

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 9 2001
K. McGuffie
Abstract Climate modelling is now a mature discipline approaching its fortieth birthday. The need for valid climate forecasts has been underlined by the recognition that human activities are now modifying the climate. The complex nature of the climate system has resulted in the development of a surprisingly large array of modelling tools. Some are relatively simple, such as the earth systems and energy balance models (EBMs), while others are highly sophisticated models which challenge the fastest speeds of the most powerful supercomputers. Indeed, this discipline of the latter half of the twentieth century is so critically dependent on the availability of a means of undertaking powerful calculations that its evolution has matched that of the digital computer. The multi-faceted nature of the climate system demands high quality, and global observations and innovative parameterizations through which processes which cannot be described or calculated explicitly are captured to the extent deemed necessary. Interestingly, results from extremely simple, as well as highly complex and many intermediate model types are drawn upon today for effective formulation and evaluation of climate policies. This paper discusses some of the important developments during the first 40 years of climate modelling from the first models of the global atmosphere to today's models, which typically consist of integrated multi-component representations of the full climate system. The pressures of policy-relevant questions more clearly underline the tension between the need for evaluation against quality data and the unending pressure to improve spatial and temporal resolutions of climate models than at any time since the inception of climate modelling. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Energy efficiency investments in Kraft pulp mills given uncertain climate policy

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH, Issue 5 2007
Anders Ådahl
Abstract Energy efficiency measures in pulp mills can potentially reduce the consumption of biofuel, which can instead be exported and used elsewhere. In this paper a methodology is proposed for analysing the robustness of energy efficiency investments in Kraft pulp mills or other industrial process plants equipped with biofuelled combined heat and power units, given uncertain future climate policy. The outlook for biofuel and electricity prices is a key factor for deciding if energy efficiency measures are cost competitive. CO2 emission charges resulting from climate policy are internalized and thus included in electricity and biofuel prices. The proposed methodology includes a price-setting model for biofuel that assumes a constant price ratio between biofuel and electricity in the Nordic countries. Thirteen energy efficiency retrofit measures are analysed for an existing Swedish Kraft pulp mill. Special attention is paid to heat-integrated evaporation using excess process heat. Four possible energy market development paths are considered that reflect different climate policies. Pulp mill energy efficiency investments considered are shown to be robust with respect to uncertain climate policy. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Climate Policy Beyond Kyoto: Quo Vadis?

KYKLOS INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, Issue 4 2005
A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Based on Expert Judgments
Summary We investigate the possible future of Post-Kyoto climate policies until 2020. Based on a cross-impact analysis, we first evaluate an expert poll to identify the most likely Post-Kyoto climate policy scenarios. We then use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic implications of these scenarios. We find that Post-Kyoto agreements will include only small reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, with abatement duties predominantly assigned to the industrialized countries, while developing countries remain uncommitted, but can sell emission abatement to the industrialized world. Equity rules to allocate abatement duties are mainly based on sovereignty or ability-to-pay. Global adjustment costs to Post-Kyoto policies are very moderate, but regional costs to fuel exporting countries can be substantial because of distinct terms-of-trade effects on fossil fuel markets. [source]

Multi-level Governance and Global Climate Change in East Asia

ASIAN ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW, Issue 1 2010
Miranda A. SCHREURS
Q54; F55; H77 Climate change is an issue that requires integrated action at multiple levels of government and within the spheres of politics, economics, and society. National, regional, and local governments have both distinct and complementary roles in developing climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Compared with the attention that has been given to international and national activities in East Asia, relatively limited attention has been paid to the role of urban and regional governments in combating global climate change. Cities and provinces are initiating their own climate action plans, positioning themselves as environmental model cities, and joining local, national, and international networks for climate change. This article examines urban and prefectural climate policies in China, Japan, and South Korea within a multilevel governance framework. [source]

Economic impacts of bio-refinery and resource cascading systems: An applied general equilibrium analysis for Poland

BIOTECHNOLOGY JOURNAL, Issue 12 2007
Adriana M. Ignaciuk Dr.
Abstract Due to more stringent energy and climate policies, it is expected that many traditional chemicals will be replaced by their biomass-based substitutes, bio-chemicals. These innovations, however, can influence land allocation since the demand for land dedicated to specific crops might increase. Moreover, it can have an influence on traditional agricultural production. In this paper, we use an applied general equilibrium framework, in which we include two different bio-refinery processes and incorporate so-called cascading mechanisms. The bio-refinery processes use grass, as one of the major inputs, to produce bio-nylon and propane-diol (1,3PDO) to substitute currently produced fossil fuel-based nylon and ethane-diol. We examine the impact of specific climate policies on the bioelectricity share in total electricity production, land allocation, and production quantities and prices of selected commodities. The novel technologies become competitive, with an increased stringency of climate policies. This switch, however, does not induce a higher share of bioelectricity. The cascade does stimulate the production of bioelectricity, but it induces more of a shift in inputs in the bioelectricity sector (from biomass to the cascaded bio-nylon and 1, 3PDO) than an increase in production level of bioelectricity. We conclude that dedicated biomass crops will remain the main option for bioelectricity production: the contribution of the biomass systems remains limited. Moreover, the bioelectricity sector looses a competition for land for biomass production with bio-refineries. [source]

Adaptation to climate change in the European union: efficiency versus equity considerations

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND GOVERNANCE, Issue 3 2010
Stine Aakre
Abstract EU climate policy based on reduction (mitigation) of greenhouse gas emissions is coupled with measures aimed at responding efficiently to the unavoidable consequences of climate change (adaptation). However, as the European Commission stated recently in its Green and White Papers on adaptation in Europe, there is still need to develop an overall EU adaptation strategy. Moreover, such a strategy should take into consideration both efficiency and equity concerns. In this article we propose a framework for EU adaptation policy that addresses the two concerns and which enables a transparent decision-making process. In the proposed scheme universal weightings of the individual policy objectives have to be agreed upon prior to actual decision-making. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [source]

Path-dependent climate policy: the history and future of emissions trading in Europe

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND GOVERNANCE, Issue 5 2004
Edwin Woerdman
At the end of the 1990s, the EU was still sceptical towards emissions trading, but in 2003 it adopted a directive that enables such trading in the EU from 2005 onwards. Instead of presenting ad hoc explanations, we develop and apply the path dependence approach to clarify this remarkable attitude change. Sunk costs, switching costs and learning explain why politicians were initially tempted to add credit trading to existing, sub-optimal policy. Permit trading, however, is more efficient and effective. An institutional lock-in was bound to occur, but attitudes changed as a result of internal pressures, such as the pioneering role of the European Commission, and external ,shocks', such as the withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. A full-scale institutional break-out towards efficiency is not guaranteed, though, because elements of credit trading can still enter the permit trading directive. The risk is that these elements become locked in, from which it may be difficult to escape. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [source]

Politics, industry and the regulation of industrial greenhouse-gas emissions in the UK and Germany

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND GOVERNANCE, Issue 4 2004
Ian Bailey
This paper assesses the impact of ,new' environmental policy instruments (NEPIs), such as eco-taxes, tradable permits and environmental agreements, on the politics of regulating industrial greenhouse-gas emissions. Intense academic debate surrounds the extent to which environmental policy is driven by the public interest, public choices between actor and stakeholder interests, or embedded institutional traditions. However, the effects on environmental politics of the recent shift from direct regulation to NEPIs remain seriously under-researched. Surveys and interviews with industry and policy-makers on the implementation of United Kingdom and German climate policy indicate that, although economic pressures do influence the design of policy instruments, public choice is far from dominant; nor are industry reactions to particular NEPIs uniform between countries. This suggests that national institutional traditions are far more influential in informing policy choices and industry reactions to policy innovations than is often acknowledged. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley &,Sons, Ltd and ERP,Environment. [source]

Voluntary agreements with emission trading options in climate policy

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND GOVERNANCE, Issue 4 2001
Johan Albrecht
Recent political and corporate initiatives indicate that voluntary agreements and emission trading will play a crucial role in climate policy. We show that when emission trading is integrated as an option in voluntary agreement contracts, the overall efficiency of the use of flexible climate policy instruments is strongly increased. The emission trading option, formalized as a CO2 allowance call option contract that can be traded, provides clear incentives to overcomply with the target of the voluntary agreement. The option mechanism also delivers a market price for eventual non-compliance, based on differences in abatement costs. With an example, we illustrate that the option mechanism can result in stimulating financial benefits for the firms that are most successful in reducing emissions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment [source]

Energy efficiency investments in Kraft pulp mills given uncertain climate policy

Limiting Global Cooling after Global Warming is Over , Differentiating Between Short- and Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases

OPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 4 2003
Axel Michaelowa
Current climate policy does not take into account that, after greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced to an extent that atmospheric concentrations stabilise and then start to fall, natural decay of greenhouse gases will lead to a global cooling phase spanning several centuries. This cooling will lead to damage to humans and ecosystems that depends on the rate of temperature change. Current climate policy should thus concentrate on the reduction of short- and medium-lived greenhouse gases, while exempting long-lived gases. This reduces the cooling rate. Another policy option is to sequester carbon in geological reservoirs that allow controlled release in the future. [source]

The Economic Impact of Climate Change

PERSPEKTIVEN DER WIRTSCHAFTSPOLITIK, Issue 2010
Richard S. J. Tol
Different methods have been used to estimate the impact of climate change on human welfare. Studies agree that there are positive and negative impacts. In the short term, positive impacts may dominate, but these are largely sunk. In the longer term, there are net negative impacts. Poorer people tend to be more vulnerable to climate change. There is a trade-off between development policy and climate policy. Estimated aggregate impacts are not very large, but they are uncertain and incomplete. Estimates of the marginal impacts suggest that greenhouse gas emissions should be taxed, and that the emission reduction targets announced by politicians are probably too ambitious. [source]

ON THE PATH OF AN OIL PIGOVIAN TAX,

THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 5 2009
ANTOINE BELGODERE, Article first published online: 14 JUL 200
This paper studies optimal climate policy in the presence of oil rents. Several authors have found that, according to Hotelling's rule, in the long run, the optimal ad valorem tax must decrease. However, if the pollution is a stock and if environmental concerns impose stopping the resource extraction before its exhaustion, we show that an ad valorem tax defined over the rent cannot decentralize the optimum. In this case, an increasing per-unit tax can decentralize the optimum. Such a tax implies the disappearance of the Hotelling rent. Thus, the extraction problem reduces to a pollution-control problem. [source]

The logic of collective action and Australia's climate policy,

AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2010
John C.V. Pezzey
We analyse the long-term efficiency of the emissions target and of the provisions to reduce carbon leakage in the Australian Government's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, as proposed in March 2009, and the nature and likely cause of changes to these features in the previous year. The target range of 5,15 per cent cuts in national emission entitlements during 2000,2020 was weak, in that on balance it is too low to minimise Australia's long-term mitigation costs. The free allocation of output-linked, tradable emissions permits to emissions-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) sectors was much higher than proposed earlier, or shown to be needed to deal with carbon leakage. It plausibly means that EITE emissions can rise by 13 per cent during 2010,2020, while non-EITE sectors must cut emissions by 34,51 per cent (or make equivalent permit imports) to meet the national targets proposed, far from a cost-effective outcome. The weak targets and excessive EITE assistance illustrate the efficiency-damaging power of collective action by the ,carbon lobby'. Resisting this requires new national or international institutions to assess lobby claims impartially, and more government publicity about the true economic importance of carbon-intensive sectors. [source]

Corporate intentions to participate in emission trading

BUSINESS STRATEGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, Issue 1 2007
Jonatan Pinkse
Abstract The adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 has led to increasing business interest in the issue of climate change. It has also created much uncertainty for companies, particularly about the role of trading in realizing emission reductions. This paper investigates what drives multinational corporations to show interest in emission trading and carbon offset projects to deal with climate change. On the basis of an analysis of data of 136 companies derived from a questionnaire, it also examines the role that country of origin, industry affiliation and companies' environmental strategy play in this regard. Findings show that industry pressure and product and process innovations are the main determinants for multinational corporations to participate in the emission market. It appears that climate policy particularly induces energy-related industries to reduce emissions, which puts them ahead of other industries with regard to their interest in emission trading. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [source]