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Climate Forcing (climate + forcing)
Selected AbstractsGlobal statistical analysis of MISR aerosol data: a massive data product from NASA's Terra satelliteENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 7 2007Tao Shi Abstract In climate models, aerosol forcing is the major source of uncertainty in climate forcing, over the industrial period. To reduce this uncertainty, instruments on satellites have been put in place to collect global data. However, missing and noisy observations impose considerable difficulties for scientists researching the global distribution of aerosols, aerosol transportation, and comparisons between satellite observations and global-climate-model outputs. In this paper, we fit a Spatial Mixed Effects (SME) statistical model to predict the missing values, denoise the observed values, and quantify the spatial-prediction uncertainties. The computations associated with the SME model are linear scalable to the number of data points, which makes it feasible to process massive global satellite data. We apply the methodology, which is called Fixed Rank Kriging (FRK), to the level-3 Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) dataset collected by NASA's Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument flying on the Terra satellite. Overall, our results were superior to those from non-statistical methods and, importantly, FRK has an uncertainty measure associated with it that can be used for comparisons over different regions or at different time points. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Climate control on the long-term anomalous changes of zooplankton communities in the Northwestern MediterraneanGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2008JUAN CARLOS MOLINERO Abstract In marine ecosystems, pelagic copepods, chaetognaths and jellyfish play a key role in matter and energy flow. While copepods support most food webs and the biological pump of carbon into the deep ocean, chaetognaths and jellyfish may affect the strength of the top-down control upon plankton communities. In this study, we show that the main events in the long-term variability of these functional groups in the Northwestern Mediterranean were tightly linked to changes of climate forcing of the North Atlantic sector. Large-scale climate forcing has altered the pelagic food-web dynamics through changes in biological interactions, competition and predation, leading to substantial changes manifested as bursts or collapses in zooplankton populations, and consequently to a major change ca. 1987. These events become more frequent in the 1980s and the early 1990s in the studied zooplankton functional groups suggesting a shift in the functioning of the pelagic ecosystem. The environmental modifications and the results reported here are therefore, indicators of a regime change pointing to a more regeneration-dominated system in the study area. We suggest a chain of mechanisms, whereby climate variation has modified the long-term dynamics of pelagic copepods, chaetognaths and jellyfish in the Ligurian Sea. [source] Large-scale climatic signatures in lakes across Europe: a meta-analysisGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2007THORSTEN BLENCKNER Abstract Recent studies have highlighted the impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on water temperature, ice conditions, and spring plankton phenology in specific lakes and regions in Europe. Here, we use meta-analysis techniques to test whether 18 lakes in northern, western, and central Europe respond coherently to winter climate forcing, and to assess the persistence of the winter climate signal in physical, chemical, and biological variables during the year. A meta-analysis approach was chosen because we wished to emphasize the overall coherence pattern rather than individual lake responses. A particular strength of our approach is that time-series from each of the 18 lakes were subjected to the same robust statistical analysis covering the same 23-year period. Although the strongest overall coherence in response to the winter NAO was exhibited by lake water temperatures, a strong, coherent response was also exhibited by concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus and soluble reactive silicate, most likely as a result of the coherent response exhibited by the spring phytoplankton bloom. Lake nitrate concentrations showed significant coherence in winter. With the exception of the cyanobacterial biomass in summer, phytoplankton biomass in all seasons was unrelated to the winter NAO. A strong coherence in the abundance of daphnids during spring can most likely be attributed to coherence in daphnid phenology. A strong coherence in the summer abundance of the cyclopoid copepods may have been related to a coherent change in their emergence from resting stages. We discuss the complex nature of the potential mechanisms that drive the observed changes. [source] Contrasting population changes in sympatric penguin species in association with climate warmingGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2006JAUME FORCADA Abstract Climate warming and associated sea ice reductions in Antarctica have modified habitat conditions for some species. These include the congeneric Adélie, chinstrap and gentoo penguins, which now demonstrate remarkable population responses to regional warming. However, inconsistencies in the direction of population changes between species at different study sites complicate the understanding of causal processes. Here, we show that at the South Orkney Islands where the three species breed sympatrically, the less ice-adapted gentoo penguins increased significantly in numbers over the last 26 years, whereas chinstrap and Adélie penguins both declined. These trends occurred in parallel with regional long-term warming and significant reduction in sea ice extent. Periodical warm events, with teleconnections to the tropical Pacific, caused cycles in sea ice leading to reduced prey biomass, and simultaneous interannual population decreases in the three penguin species. With the loss of sea ice, Adélie penguins were less buffered against the environment, their numbers fluctuated greatly and their population response was strong and linear. Chinstrap penguins, considered to be better adapted to ice-free conditions, were affected by discrete events of locally increased ice cover, but showed less variable, nonlinear responses to sea ice loss. Gentoo penguins were temporarily affected by negative anomalies in regional sea ice, but persistent sea ice reductions were likely to increase their available niche, which is likely to be substantially segregated from that of their more abundant congeners. Thus, the regional consequences of global climate perturbations on the sea ice phenology affect the marine ecosystem, with repercussions for penguin food supply and competition for resources. Ultimately, variability in penguin populations with warming reflects the local balance between penguin adaptation to ice conditions and trophic-mediated changes cascading from global climate forcing. [source] Dendroclimatic signals in long tree-ring chronologies from the Himalayas of NepalINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2003Edward R. Cook Abstract We describe the development of a tree-ring chronology network in Nepal that is suitable for reconstructing temperature-related climate forcing over the past few hundred years. The network is composed of 32 tree-ring chronologies and is represented by five indigenous tree species. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of the chronologies over the common interval 1796,92 indicates the existence of coherent large-scale signals among the tree-ring chronologies that are hypothesized to reflect, in part, broad-scale climate forcing related to temperatures. A long monthly temperature record for Kathmandu is developed and used to test this hypothesis. In so doing, significant monthly and seasonal temperature responses are identified that provide guidance for the formal reconstruction of two temperature seasons: February,June (1546,91) and October,February (1605,91). Each reconstruction indicates the occurrence of unusually cold temperatures in 1815,22, which coincides with the eruption of Tambora in Indonesia. A novel method is also used to add probable missing multi-centennial temperature variance to each reconstruction. The resulting ,adjusted' reconstructions strongly reflect patterns of temperature variability associated with Little Ice Age cooling and warming into the 20th century, with the October,February season exhibiting the strongest increase in temperature over the past ,400 years. Only the October,February season shows any evidence for late- 20th century warming, whereas February,June temperatures have actually cooled since 1960 (as with the observational series). Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate changeJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 7 2002Jay R. Malcolm Aim Greenhouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 -doubled climatic forcing. Location Global. Methods Migration distances were calculated between grid cells of future biome type x and nearest same-biome-type cells in the current climate. In `base-case' calculations, we assumed that 2 × CO2 climate forcing would occur in 100 years, we used ten biome types and we measured migration distances as straight-line distances ignoring water barriers and human development. In sensitivity analyses, we investigated different time periods of 2 × CO2 climate forcing, more narrowly defined biomes and barriers because of water bodies and human development. Results In the base-case calculations, average migration rates varied significantly according to the GVM used (BIOME3 vs. MAPSS), the age of the GCM (older- vs. newer-generation GCMs), and whether or not GCMs included sulphate cooling or CO2 fertilization effects. However, high migration rates (, 1000 m year,1) were relatively common in all models, consisting on average of 17% grid cells for BIOME3 and 21% for MAPSS. Migration rates were much higher in boreal and temperate biomes than in tropical biomes. Doubling of the time period of 2 × CO2 forcing reduced these areas of high migration rates to c. 12% of grid cells for both BIOME3 and MAPSS. However, to obtain migration rates in the Boreal biome that were similar in magnitude to those observed for spruce when it followed the retreating North American Glacier, a radical increase in the period of warming was required, from 100 to >1000 years. A reduction in biome area by an order of magnitude increased migration rates by one to three orders of magnitude, depending on the GVM. Large water bodies and human development had regionally important effects in increasing migration rates. Main conclusions In conclusion, evidence from coupled GCMs and GVMs suggests that global warming may require migration rates much faster than those observed during post-glacial times and hence has the potential to reduce biodiversity by selecting for highly mobile and opportunistic species. Several poorly understood factors that are expected to influence the magnitude of any such reduction are discussed, including intrinsic migrational capabilities, barriers to migration, the role of outlier populations in increasing migration rates, the role of climate in setting range limits and variation in species range sizes. [source] Chronology of latest Pleistocene lake-level fluctuations in the pluvial Lake Chewaucan basin, Oregon, USAJOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE, Issue 6 2001Joseph M. Licciardi Abstract New accelerator mass spectrometer radiocarbon ages from gastropods in shore deposits within the pluvial Lake Chewaucan basin, combined with stratigraphical and geomorphological evidence, identify an abrupt rise and fall of lake level at ca. 12 14C ka. The lake-level high is coeval with lake-level lows in the well-dated records of palaeolakes Bonneville and Lahontan, and with a period of relatively wet conditions in the more southerly Owens Lake basin. This spatial pattern of pluvial lake levels in the western USA at 12 14C ka indicates a variable synoptic response to climate forcing at this time. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Tectonic vs. climate forcing in the Cenozoic sedimentary evolution of a foreland basin (Eastern Southalpine system, Italy)BASIN RESEARCH, Issue 6 2009N. Mancin ABSTRACT This paper discusses the Cenozoic interaction of regional tectonics and climate changes. These processes were responsible for mass flux from mountain belts to depositional basins in the eastern Alpine retro-foreland basin (Venetian,Friulian Basin). Our discussion is based on the depositional architecture and basin-scale depositional rate curves obtained from the decompacted thicknesses of stratigraphic units. We compare these data with the timing of tectonic deformation in the surrounding mountain ranges and the chronology of both long-term trends and short-term high-magnitude (,aberrant') episodes of climate change. Our results confirm that climate forcing (and especially aberrant episodes) impacted the depositional evolution of the basin, but that tectonics was the main factor driving sediment flux in the basin up to the Late Miocene. The depositional rate remained below 0.1 mm year,1 on average from the Eocene to the Miocene, peaking at around 0.36 mm year,1, during periods of maximum tectonic activity in the eastern Southern Alps. This dynamic strongly changed during the Pliocene,Pleistocene, when the basin-scale depositional rate increased to an average of 0.26 mm year,1 (Pliocene) and 0.73 mm year,1 (Pleistocene). This result fits nicely with the long-term global cooling trend recorded during this time interval. Nevertheless, we note that the timing of the observed increase may be connected with the presumed onset of major glaciations in the southern flank of the Alps (0.7,0.9 Ma), the acceleration of the global cooling trend (since 3,4 Ma) and climate variability (in terms of magnitude and frequency). All these factors suggest that combined high-frequency and high-magnitude cooling,warming cycles are particularly powerful in promoting erosion in mid-latitude mountain belts and therefore in increasing the sediment flux in foreland basins. [source] Geophysical evidence for Holocene lake-level change in southern California (Dry Lake)BOREAS, Issue 1 2010BROXTON W. BIRD Bird, B. W., Kirby, M. E., Howat, I. M. & Tulaczyk, S. 2009: Geophysical evidence for Holocene lake-level change in southern California (Dry Lake). Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2009.00114.x. ISSN 0300-9483. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) data are used in combination with previously published sediment cores to develop a Holocene history of basin sedimentation in a small, alpine lake in southern California (Dry Lake). The GPR data identify three depositional sequences spanning the past 9000 calendar years before present (cal. yr BP). Sequence I represents the first phase of an early Holocene highstand. A regression between <8320 and >8120 cal. yr BP separates Sequence I from Sequence II, perhaps associated with the 8200 cal. yr BP cold event. Sequence II represents the second phase of the early-to-mid Holocene highstand. Sequence IIIa represents a permanent shift to predominantly low lake stands beginning ,5550 cal. yr BP. This mid-Holocene shift was accompanied by a dramatic decrease in sedimentation rate as well as a contraction of the basin's area of sedimentation. By ,1860 cal. yr BP (Sequence IIIb), the lake was restricted to the modern, central basin. Taken together, the GPR and core data indicate a wet early Holocene followed by a long-term Holocene drying trend. The similarity in ages of the early Holocene highstand across the greater southern California region suggests a common external forcing , perhaps modulation of early Holocene storm activity by insolation. However, regional lake level records are less congruous following the initial early Holocene highstand, which may indicate a change in the spatial domain of climate forcing(s) throughout the Holocene in western North America. [source] Natural variability of fisheries and lunar illumination: a hypothesisFISH AND FISHERIES, Issue 2 2008Santiago Hernández-León Abstract Long-term synchronous trends in small pelagic fisheries catches around the world suggest that fish populations are governed by the same global climate forcings. Recent findings regarding the population dynamics of zooplankton during the lunar cycle in sub-tropical waters may shed light on the influence of the lunar cycle on fish spawning and mortality. Here I hypothesize that, in the short-term, observed changes in zooplankton abundance during the lunar cycle promote periods of enhanced feeding by adult fish and lower mortality (and increased growth) in their early planktonic stages. Furthermore, a striking 9-year periodicity in sardine and anchovy mortality was inferred in four major upwelling areas, coinciding with the long-term variability in lunar illumination. It is suggested that both short- and long-term changes in lunar illumination should be considered when modelling the effect of climate on the natural variability of fisheries. [source] Transient climate simulation forced by natural and anthropogenic climate forcingsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2002Cédric Bertrand Abstract Numerical experiments have been carried out with a two-dimensional sector-averaged global climate model coupled to a diffusive ocean in order to assess the potential impact of four hypothesized mechanisms of decadal to century-scale climate variability, both natural and anthropogenically induced: (1) solar variability; (2) variability in volcanic aerosol loading of the atmosphere; (3) anthropogenic increase of sulphate aerosols' concentration; (4) anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results suggest that neither the individual responses nor the combined natural or anthropogenic forcings allow one to reproduce all of the recorded major temperature fluctuations since the latter half of the 19th century. They show that these temperature variations are the result of both naturally driven climate fluctuations and the effects of industrialization. By contrast, the dominant cause of decade-to-century-scale variability of the 21st century is likely to be changes in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations. Indeed, when the solar, volcanic, and tropospheric aerosols forcings used in our experiments are extended into the future, they are unable to counter the expected greenhouse warming. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] | |||||||||||||