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Climate Data (climate + data)
Terms modified by Climate Data Selected AbstractsRange dynamics of small mammals along an elevational gradient over an 80-year intervalGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 11 2010REBECCA J. ROWE Abstract One expected response to observed global warming is an upslope shift of species elevational ranges. Here, we document changes in the elevational distributions of the small mammals within the Ruby Mountains in northeastern Nevada over an 80-year interval. We quantified range shifts by comparing distributional records from recent comprehensive field surveys (2006,2008) to earlier surveys (1927,1929) conducted at identical and nearby locations. Collector field notes from the historical surveys provided detailed trapping records and locality information, and museum specimens enabled confirmation of species' identifications. To ensure that observed shifts in range did not result from sampling bias, we employed a binomial likelihood model (introduced here) using likelihood ratios to calculate confidence intervals around observed range limits. Climate data indicate increases in both precipitation and summer maximum temperature between sampling periods. Increases in winter minimum temperatures were only evident at mid to high elevations. Consistent with predictions of change associated with climate warming, we document upslope range shifts for only two mesic-adapted species. In contrast, no xeric-adapted species expanded their ranges upslope. Rather, they showed either static distributions over time or downslope contraction or expansion. We attribute these unexpected findings to widespread land-use driven habitat change at lower elevations. Failure to account for land-use induced changes in both baseline assessments and in predicting shifts in species distributions may provide misleading objectives for conservation policies and management practices. [source] Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and South Pacific climateINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 14 2001M.J. Salinger Abstract The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been shown to be associated with decadal climate variability over parts of the Pacific Basin, and to modulate interannual El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related climate variability over Australia. Three phases of the IPO have been identified during the 20th century: a positive phase (1922,1944), a negative phase (1946,1977) and another positive phase (1978,1998). Climate data are analysed for the two most recent periods to describe the influence of the IPO on decadal climate trends and interannual modulation of ENSO teleconnections throughout the South West Pacific region (from the equator to 55°S, and 150°E to 140°W). Data coverage was insufficient to include the earliest period in the analysis. Mean sea level pressure (SLP) in the region west of 170°W increased for the most recent positive IPO period, compared with the previous negative phase. SLP decreased to the east of 170°W, with generally more southerly quarter geostrophic flow over the region. Annual surface temperature increased significantly southwest of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) at a rate similar to the average Southern Hemisphere warming. Northwest of the SPCZ temperature increases were less, and northeast of the SPCZ more than the hemispheric warming in surface temperature. Increases of annual precipitation of 30% or more occurred northeast of the SPCZ, with smaller decreases to the southwest, associated with a movement in the mean location of the SPCZ northeastwards. The IPO modulates teleconnections with ENSO in a complex way, strengthening relationships in some areas and weakening them in others. For New Zealand, there is a consistent bias towards stronger teleconnections for the positive IPO period. These results demonstrate that the IPO is a significant source of climate variation on decadal time scales throughout the South West Pacific region, on a background which includes global mean surface temperature increases. The IPO also modulates interannual ENSO climate variability over the region. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Vegetation-environment relationships in Atlantic European calcareous grasslandsJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 1 2000J.C. Duckworth Hill et al. (1994); Tutin et al. (1964,1980) Abstract. The relationship between vegetation and environment was investigated for calcareous grasslands in a region in the west of Spain, France, Britain and Ireland defined by climatic criteria. Vegetation was sampled using objective methods and data collected on soils, land cover, location and management. Climate data were obtained from an available database. Examination of the first axis of vegetation variation as defined by Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) showed a gradient from the Irish and British samples to those from France. The Spanish samples formed a separate group on the second axis. The species composition along the gradients is discussed. Correlations between the vegetation gradients and environmental variables were determined. The strongest correlations with the first DCA axis were for temperature, latitude, soil organic matter, grazing and land cover. The second DCA axis was highly correlated with rainfall, altitude and land cover. The third and fourth DCA axes were more difficult to interpret but appeared to be related to land cover. The results indicate that climate factors are important at this scale, but should not be considered in isolation and that factors relating to land cover and management should also be taken into account. [source] THE STORM OF NOVEMBER 1826 IN THE CANARY ISLANDS: POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE?GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2010JOSÉ BETHENCOURT-GONZÁLEZ ABSTRACT. This work analyses a storm that occurred in the Canary Islands early in November 1826. Through a study based on historical climate data, some of the adverse effects of the storm are described and some of the possible causes are discussed. The main goal of this work is to establish an approximate reconstruction of this historical event which will allow us to compare it to a recent meteorological event that had a great impact on the archipelago: "Tropical Storm Delta", in November 2005. Studying and reviewing the origin of the 1826 storm verifies the hypothesis that extremely violent perturbations have not only occurred in the Canaries on other occasions, but that these past events were also more intense and had more serious consequences than Delta. Therefore, the idea that other tropical perturbations have occurred in the region of the Canary Islands before Delta is presented. [source] RELATION BETWEEN VEGETATION CHANGES, CLIMATE VARIABLES AND LAND-USE POLICY IN SHAANXI PROVINCE, CHINAGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2007MADELENE OSTWALD ABSTRACT Shaanxi Province in China has been exposed to climate variability and dramatic land-use policies. The aim here is to examine vegetation changes in this area on a regional scale from 2000 to 2004 in relation to land-use changes and climate traits. The data in this assessment include remote sensing information from moderate-resolution imaging spectro-radiometer normalized difference vegetation index from 2000 to 2004, and climate data (precipitation and temperature) from 1956 to 2000. The results show an increase in vegetation production from 2000 to 2004, particularly in the north, which cannot be explained solely by climate impacts. Since the vegetation in the north is more dependent on climate variation than the other parts of Shaanxi due to more serious water limitation, the results suggest that the large-scale land-use policy implemented over the last decade, with a focus on northern Shaanxi, is possibly having an impact on the overall vegetation. [source] Spatial scale affects bioclimate model projections of climate change impacts on mountain plantsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2008MANDAR R. TRIVEDI Abstract Plant species have responded to recent increases in global temperatures by shifting their geographical ranges poleward and to higher altitudes. Bioclimate models project future range contractions of montane species as suitable climate space shifts uphill. The species,climate relationships underlying such models are calibrated using data at either ,macro' scales (coarse resolution, e.g. 50 km × 50 km, and large spatial extent) or ,local' scales (fine resolution, e.g. 50 m × 50 m, and small spatial extent), but the two approaches have not been compared. This study projected macro (European) and local models for vascular plants at a mountain range in Scotland, UK, under low (+1.7 °C) and high (+3.3 °C) climate change scenarios for the 2080s. Depending on scenario, the local models projected that seven or eight out of 10 focal montane species would lose all suitable climate space at the site. However, the European models projected such a loss for only one species. The cause of this divergence was investigated by cross-scale comparisons of estimated temperatures at montane species' warm range edges. The results indicate that European models overestimated species' thermal tolerances because the input coarse resolution climate data were biased against the cold, high-altitude habitats of montane plants. Although tests at other mountain ranges are required, these results indicate that recent large-scale modelling studies may have overestimated montane species' ability to cope with increasing temperatures, thereby underestimating the potential impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the results suggest that montane species persistence in microclimatic refugia might not be as widespread as previously speculated. [source] Insects in a warmer world: ecological, physiological and life-history responses of true bugs (Heteroptera) to climate changeGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 8 2007DMITRY L. MUSOLIN Abstract Focusing on the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula (Pentatomidae), in central Japan the effects of climate change on true bugs (Insecta: Heteroptera) are reviewed. In the early 1960s, the northern edge of the species's distribution was in Wakayama Prefecture (34.1°N) and distribution was limited by the +5°C coldest month (January) mean temperature isothermal line. By 2000, N. viridula was recorded 70 km further north (in Osaka, 34.7°N). Historical climate data were used to reveal possible causes of the northward range expansion. The increase of mean and lowest winter month temperatures by 1,2°C in Osaka from the 1950s to the 1990s improved potential overwintering conditions for N. viridula. This promoted northward range expansion of the species. In Osaka, adult diapause in N. viridula is induced after mid-September, much later than in other local seed-feeding heteropterans. This late diapause induction results in late-season ineffective reproduction: some females start oviposition in autumn when the progeny have no chance of attaining adulthood and surviving winter. Both reproductive adults and the progeny die. A period from mid-September to early November represents a phenological mismatch: diapause is not yet induced in all adults, but it is already too late to start reproduction. Females that do not start reproduction but enter diapause in September have reduced postdiapause reproductive performance: they live for a shorter period, have a shorter period of oviposition and produce fewer eggs in smaller egg masses compared with females that emerge and enter diapause later in autumn. To some extent, N. viridula remains maladapted to Osaka environmental conditions. Ecological perspectives on establishment in recently colonized areas are discussed. A review of available data suggests that terrestrial and aquatic Heteroptera species respond to climate change by shifting their distribution ranges, changing abundance, phenology, voltinism, physiology, behaviour, and community structure. Expected responses of Heteroptera to further climate warming are discussed under scenarios of slight (<2°C) and substantial (>2°C) temperature increase. [source] Site-level evaluation of satellite-based global terrestrial gross primary production and net primary production monitoringGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2005David P. Turner Abstract Operational monitoring of global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) is now underway using imagery from the satellite-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Evaluation of MODIS GPP and NPP products will require site-level studies across a range of biomes, with close attention to numerous scaling issues that must be addressed to link ground measurements to the satellite-based carbon flux estimates. Here, we report results of a study aimed at evaluating MODIS NPP/GPP products at six sites varying widely in climate, land use, and vegetation physiognomy. Comparisons were made for twenty-five 1 km2 cells at each site, with 8-day averages for GPP and an annual value for NPP. The validation data layers were made with a combination of ground measurements, relatively high resolution satellite data (Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus at ,30 m resolution), and process-based modeling. There was strong seasonality in the MODIS GPP at all sites, and mean NPP ranged from 80 g C m,2 yr,1 at an arctic tundra site to 550 g C m,2 yr,1 at a temperate deciduous forest site. There was not a consistent over- or underprediction of NPP across sites relative to the validation estimates. The closest agreements in NPP and GPP were at the temperate deciduous forest, arctic tundra, and boreal forest sites. There was moderate underestimation in the MODIS products at the agricultural field site, and strong overestimation at the desert grassland and at the dry coniferous forest sites. Analyses of specific inputs to the MODIS NPP/GPP algorithm , notably the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the vegetation canopy, the maximum light use efficiency (LUE), and the climate data , revealed the causes of the over- and underestimates. Suggestions for algorithm improvement include selectively altering values for maximum LUE (based on observations at eddy covariance flux towers) and parameters regulating autotrophic respiration. [source] Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soilGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2005Chris Jones Abstract Enhanced release of CO2 to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO2 levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate,carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single-pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ,RothC' multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model. [source] Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystemGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2002Florent Mouillot Abstract The impacts of climate change on Mediterranean-type ecosystems may result from complex interactions between direct effects on water stress and subsequent modifications in flammability and fire regime leading to changes in standing biomass and plant species composition. We analysed these interrelations through a simulation approach combining scenarios of climate change developed from GCM results and a multispecies functional model for vegetation dynamics, SIERRA. A fire risk procedure based on weekly estimates of vegetation water stress has been implemented. Using climate data from 1960 to 1997, simulations of a typical maquis woodland community have been performed as baseline and compared with two climate scenarios: a change in the rainfall regime alone, and changes in both rainfall and air temperature. Climate changes are defined by an increase in temperature, particularly in summer, and a change in the rainfall pattern leading to a decrease in low rainfall events, and an increase in intense rainfall events. The results illustrate the lack of drastic changes in the succession process, but highlight modifications in the water budget and in the length of the drought periods. Water stress lower than expected regarding statistics on the current climate is simulated, emphasizing a long-term new equilibrium of vegetation to summer drought but with a higher sensibility to rare events. Regarding fire frequency, climate changes tend to decrease the time interval between two successive fires from 20 to 16 years for the maquis shrubland and from 72 to 62 years in the forested stages. This increase in fire frequency leads to shrub-dominated landscapes, which accentuates the yield of water by additional deep drainage and runoff. [source] Fire regimes of China: inference from statistical comparison with the United StatesGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2009Meg A. Krawchuk ABSTRACT Aim, Substantial overlap in the climate characteristics of the United States and China results in similar land-cover types and weather conditions, especially in the eastern half of the two countries. These parallels suggest similarities in fire regimes as well, yet relatively little is known about the historical role of fire in Chinese ecosystems. Consequently, we aimed to infer fire regime characteristics for China based on our understanding of climate,fire relationships in the United States. Location, The conterminous United States and the People's Republic of China. Methods, We used generalized additive models to quantify the relationship between reference fire regime classes adopted by the LANDFIRE initiative in the United States, and a global climate data set. With the models, we determined which climate variables best described the distribution of fire regimes in the United States then used these models to predict the spatial distribution of fire regimes in China. The fitted models were validated quantitatively using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC). We validated the predicted fire regimes in China by comparison with palaeoecological fire data and satellite-derived estimates of current fire activity. Results, Quantitative validation using the AUC indicated good discrimination of the distribution of fire regimes by models for the United States. Overall, fire regimes with more frequent return intervals were more likely in the east than in the west. The resolution of available historical and prehistorical fire data for China, including sediment cores, allowed only coarse, qualitative validation, but provided supporting evidence that fire has long been a part of ecosystem function in eastern China. MODIS satellite data illustrated that fire frequency within the last decade supported the classification of much of western China as relatively fire-free; however, much of south-eastern China experiences more fire activity than predicted with our models, probably as a function of the extensive use of fire by people. Conclusions, While acknowledging there are many cultural, environmental and historical differences between the United States and China, our fire regime models based on climate data demonstrate potential historical fire regimes for China, and propose that large areas of China share historical fire,vegetation,climate complexes with the United States. [source] Patterns of ant species richness along elevational gradients in an arid ecosystemGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2003Nathan J. Sanders ABSTRACT Aim In this study, we examine patterns of local and regional ant species richness along three elevational gradients in an arid ecosystem. In addition, we test the hypothesis that changes in ant species richness with elevation are related to elevation-dependent changes in climate and available area. Location Spring Mountains, Nevada, U.S.A. Methods We used pitfall traps placed at each 100-m elevational band in three canyons in the Spring Mountains. We compiled climate data from 68 nearby weather stations. We used multiple regression analysis to examine the effects of annual precipitation, average July precipitation, and maximum and minimum July temperature on ant species richness at each elevational band. Results We found that patterns of local ant species richness differed among the three gradients we sampled. Ant species richness increased linearly with elevation along two transects and peaked at mid-elevation along a third transect. This suggests that patterns of species richness based on data from single transects may not generalize to larger spatial scales. Cluster analysis of community similarity revealed a high-elevation species assemblage largely distinct from that of lower elevations. Major changes in the identity of ant species present along elevational gradients tended to coincide with changes in the dominant vegetation. Regional species richness, defined here as the total number of unique species within an elevational band in all three gradients combined, tended to increase with increasing elevation. Available area decreased with increasing elevation. Area was therefore correlated negatively with ant species richness and did not explain elevational patterns of ant species richness in the Spring Mountains. Mean July maximum and minimum temperature, July precipitation and annual precipitation combined to explain 80% of the variation in ant species richness. Main conclusions Our results suggest that in arid ecosystems, species richness for some taxa may be highest at high elevations, where lower temperatures and higher precipitation may support higher levels of primary production and cause lower levels of physiological stress. [source] A modified support vector machine based prediction model on streamflow at the Shihmen Reservoir, TaiwanINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2010Pei-Hao Li Abstract The uncertainty of the availability of water resources during the boreal winter has led to significant economic losses in recent years in Taiwan. A modified support vector machine (SVM) based prediction framework is thus proposed to improve the predictability of the inflow to Shihmen reservoir in December and January, using climate data from the prior period. Highly correlated climate precursors are first identified and adopted to predict water availability in North Taiwan. A genetic algorithm based parameter determination procedure is implemented to the SVM parameters to learn the non-linear pattern underlying climate systems more flexibly. Bagging is then applied to construct various SVM models to reduce the variance in the prediction by the median of forecasts from the constructed models. The enhanced prediction ability of the proposed modified SVM-based model with respect to a bagged multiple linear regression (MLR), simple SVM, and simple MLR model is also demonstrated. The results show that the proposed modified SVM-based model outperforms the prediction ability of the other models in all of the adopted evaluation scores. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] A new method of vegetation,climate classification in ChinaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 9 2008Sun Yanling Abstract Coefficient C is a synthetic index from the third correlative equation, which represents the state of moisture in a region and may be used for assigning vegetation zonality. The third correlative equation is a new equation concerning heat and water balance from knowledge of evaporation on land. In this article, coefficient C and accumulated temperature over 5 °C (AT5) are combined to predict the distribution of vegetation zones in China. Predictions of vegetation distribution are made using observational climate data interpolated into a 25 × 25 km grid. The overall impression from examining the resulting vegetation map is that the location and distribution of vegetation zones in China are predicted fairly well. Comparison between the predicted vegetation map and the vegetation regionalization map are based on Kappa statistics and indicate very good agreement for the cold,temperate coniferous forest zone, the subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest zone, and the temperate mixed coniferous,broadleaved forest zone. Agreement is good for the warm,temperate deciduous broadleaved forest zone, the temperate steppe zone, the temperate desert zone, and the Tibetan high-cold plateau zone. Agreement between the regionalization map and the produced map is fair for the tropical rainforest and monsoon forest zone. Compared with those produced by the Holdridge, Thornthwaite, Penman, and the Kira models, as well as the Budyko method, the Kappa statistics in this article are all better except for the cold,temperate (boreal) coniferous forest zone and the temperate desert zone. The results are particularly superior for the Tibetan high-cold plateau zone. Coefficient C provides important information for predicting the distribution of vegetation zones in China, and this article attempts to study vegetation,climate classification on a large scale using coefficient C and AT5. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Pattern hunting in climate: a new method for finding trends in gridded climate dataINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2007A. Hannachi Abstract Trends are very important in climate research and are ubiquitous in the climate system. Trends are usually estimated using simple linear regression. Given the complexity of the system, trends are expected to have various features such as global and local characters. It is therefore important to develop methods that permit a systematic decomposition of climate data into different trend patterns and remaining no-trend patterns. Empirical orthogonal functions and closely related methods, widely used in atmospheric science, are unable in general to capture trends because they are not devised for that purpose. The present paper presents a novel method capable of systematically capturing trend patterns from gridded data. The method is based on an eigenanalysis of the covariance/correlation matrix obtained using correlations between time positions of the sorted data, and trends are associated with the leading nondegenerate eigenvalues. Application to simple low-dimensional time series models and reanalyses data are presented and discussed. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Guidelines for assessing the suitability of spatial climate data setsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2006Christopher Daly Abstract Spatial climate data are often key drivers of computer models and statistical analyses, which form the basis for scientific conclusions, management decisions, and other important outcomes. The recent availability of very high-resolution climate data sets raises important questions about the tendency to equate resolution with realism. This paper discusses the relationship between scale and spatial climate-forcing factors, and provides background and advice on assessing the suitability of data sets. Spatial climate patterns are most affected by terrain and water bodies, primarily through the direct effects of elevation, terrain-induced climate transitions, cold air drainage and inversions, and coastal effects. The importance of these factors is generally lowest at scales of 100 km and greater, and becomes greatest at less than 10 km. Except in densely populated regions of developed countries, typical station spacing is on the order of 100 km. Regions without major terrain features and which are at least 100 km from climatically important coastlines can be handled adequately by most interpolation techniques. Situations characterized by significant terrain features, but with no climatically important coastlines, no rain shadows, and a well-mixed atmosphere can be reasonably handled by methods that explicitly account for elevation effects. Regions having significant terrain features, and also significant coastal effects, rain shadows, or cold air drainage and inversions are best handled by sophisticated systems that are configured and evaluated by experienced climatologists. There is no one satisfactory method for quantitatively estimating errors in spatial climate data sets, because the field that is being estimated is unknown between data points. Perhaps the best overall way to assess errors is to use a combination of approaches, involve data that are as independent from those used in the analysis as possible, and use common sense in the interpretation of results. Data set developers are encouraged to conduct expert reviews of their draft data sets, which is probably the single most effective way to improve data set quality. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] In search of simple structures in climate: simplifying EOFsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2006A. Hannachi Abstract Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) are widely used in climate research to identify dominant patterns of variability and to reduce the dimensionality of climate data. EOFs, however, can be difficult to interpret. Rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOFs) have been proposed as more physical entities with simpler patterns than EOFs. This study presents a new approach for finding climate patterns with simple structures that overcomes the problems encountered with rotation. The method achieves simplicity of the patterns by using the main properties of EOFs and REOFs simultaneously. Orthogonal patterns that maximise variance subject to a constraint that induces a form of simplicity are found. The simplified empirical orthogonal function (SEOF) patterns, being more ,local', are constrained to have zero loadings outside the main centre of action. The method is applied to winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) reanalyses over the period 1948,2000. The ,simplified' leading patterns of variability are identified and compared to the leading patterns obtained from EOFs and REOFs. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areasINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 15 2005Robert J. Hijmans Abstract We developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution). The climate elements considered were monthly precipitation and mean, minimum, and maximum temperature. Input data were gathered from a variety of sources and, where possible, were restricted to records from the 1950,2000 period. We used the thin-plate smoothing spline algorithm implemented in the ANUSPLIN package for interpolation, using latitude, longitude, and elevation as independent variables. We quantified uncertainty arising from the input data and the interpolation by mapping weather station density, elevation bias in the weather stations, and elevation variation within grid cells and through data partitioning and cross validation. Elevation bias tended to be negative (stations lower than expected) at high latitudes but positive in the tropics. Uncertainty is highest in mountainous and in poorly sampled areas. Data partitioning showed high uncertainty of the surfaces on isolated islands, e.g. in the Pacific. Aggregating the elevation and climate data to 10 arc min resolution showed an enormous variation within grid cells, illustrating the value of high-resolution surfaces. A comparison with an existing data set at 10 arc min resolution showed overall agreement, but with significant variation in some regions. A comparison with two high-resolution data sets for the United States also identified areas with large local differences, particularly in mountainous areas. Compared to previous global climatologies, ours has the following advantages: the data are at a higher spatial resolution (400 times greater or more); more weather station records were used; improved elevation data were used; and more information about spatial patterns of uncertainty in the data is available. Owing to the overall low density of available climate stations, our surfaces do not capture of all variation that may occur at a resolution of 1 km, particularly of precipitation in mountainous areas. In future work, such variation might be captured through knowledge-based methods and inclusion of additional co-variates, particularly layers obtained through remote sensing. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Recent variations in seasonality of temperature and precipitation in Canada, 1976,95INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2002Paul H. Whitfield Abstract A previously reported analysis of rehabilitated monthly temperature and precipitation time series for several hundred stations across Canada showed generally spatially coherent patterns of variation between two decades (1976,85 and 1986,95). The present work expands that analysis to finer time scales and a greater number of stations. We demonstrate how the finer temporal resolution, at 5 day or 11 day intervals, increases the separation between clusters of recent variations in seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation. We also expand the analysis by increasing the number of stations from only rehabilitated monthly data sets to rehabilitated daily sets, then to approximately 1500 daily observation stations. This increases the spatial density of data and allows a finer spatial resolution of patterns between the two decades. We also examine the success of clustering partial records, i.e. sites where the data record is incomplete. The intent of this study was to be consistent with previous work and explore how greater temporal and spatial detail in the climate data affects the resolution of patterns of recent climate variations. The variations we report for temperature and precipitation are taking place at different temporal and spatial scales. Further, the spatial patterns are much broader than local climate regions and ecozones, indicating that the differences observed may be the result of variations in atmospheric circulation. Copyright © 2002 Environment Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric turbidity over South AfricaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2001Helen C. Power Abstract Aerosols affect climate by attenuating solar radiation and acting as cloud condensation nuclei. Despite their importance in the climate system, our understanding of the time-space variability of aerosols is fragmentary. Measurements and reliable estimates of atmospheric turbidity,the total column amount of aerosol,are scarce in most countries and this is especially true in the Southern Hemisphere. Very little is known about the seasonal, interannual and spatial variability of aerosols over the southern half of the globe. In this paper, we estimate monthly averaged atmospheric turbidity from surface climate data at eight locations in South Africa, regardless of cloud cover. Findings include new estimates of turbidity trends and variability over South Africa. Seasonal trends are evident at many stations, although there is no consistent trend. Over recent decades, turbidity has generally been stable at six of the eight stations. Our methodology can be applied at any location where the requisite climate data are available and, therefore, holds promise for a more complete, and possibly global, climatology of aerosols. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Validation of ECMWF (re)analysis surface climate data, 1979,1998, for Greenland and implications for mass balance modelling of the ice sheetINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2001Edward Hanna Abstract Climate (re)analysis products are potentially valuable tools, when properly verified, for helping to constrain the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). Monthly surface fields from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational- and re-analyses spanning 1979,1998 were validated using in situ data (surface air pressure and temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, short-/all-wave radiation, and wind speed/direction). These validation data are from coastal or near-coastal Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) synoptic stations, inland Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) and University of Wisconsin Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs), and two energy balance stations near the southern ice margin. The ECMWF analyses closely reproduce the seasonal patterns and interannual variations of much of the in situ data. Differences in the mean values of surface air pressure and temperature can mainly be ascribed to orography errors in the analyses' schemes, compared with the latest available accurate digital elevation model. Much of the GIS margin as modelled by ECMWF was too cold, on average by 4°C, and ECMWF precipitation averaged some 136% of the DMI station values. The misrepresentation of the (relatively) steep ice-sheet margin, which tends to be broadened and systematically over-elevated by several hundred metres, orographically reduced temperature and enhanced precipitation there in the ECMWF models. The cloud-cover comparison revealed not dissimilar annual mean cloud covers (ECMWF ,8%) but the ECMWF analyses had too little cloud and were too ,sunny' during the critical summer melt-season. ECMWF-modelled surface albedo in summer was ,11% lower than GC-Net values, which was mainly responsible for the disagreement of modelled surface short-wave radiation fluxes with observations. Model albedo and cloud errors need to be rectified if the analyses are to be used effectively to drive energy balance models of Greenland snowmelt. ECMWF wind speed averaged 66% (62%) of the DMI station (AWS) values. The validation results provide useful insights into how one can best improve the ECMWF Greenland climate data for use in glaciological and climatological studies. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Patterns of density, diversity, and the distribution of migratory strategies in the Russian boreal forest avifaunaJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 11 2008Russell Greenberg Abstract Aim, Comparisons of the biotas in the Palaearctic and Nearctic have focused on limited portions of the two regions. The purpose of this study was to assess the geographic pattern in the abundance, species richness, and importance of different migration patterns of the boreal forest avifauna of Eurasia from Europe to East Asia as well as their relationship to climate and forest productivity. We further examine data from two widely separated sites in the New World to see how these conform to the patterns found in the Eurasian system. Location, Boreal forest sites in Russia and Canada. Methods, Point counts were conducted in two to four boreal forest habitats at each of 14 sites in the Russian boreal forest from near to the Finnish border to the Far East, as well as at two sites in boreal Canada. We examined the abundance and species richness of all birds, and specific migratory classes, against four gradients (climate, primary productivity, latitude, and longitude). We tested for spatial autocorrelation in both dependent and independent variables using Moran's I to develop spatial correlograms. For each migratory class we used maximum likelihood to fit models, first assuming uncorrelated residuals and then assuming spatially autocorrelated residuals. For models assuming unstructured residuals we again generated correlograms on model residuals to determine whether model fitting removed spatial autocorrelation. Models were compared using Akaike's information criterion, adjusted for small sample size. Results, Overall abundance was highest at the eastern and western extremes of the survey region and lowest at the continent centre, whereas the abundance of tropical and short-distance migrants displayed an east,west gradient, with tropical migrants increasing in abundance in the east (and south), and short-distance migrants in the west. Although overall species richness showed no geographic pattern, richness within migratory classes showed patterns weaker than, but similar to, their abundance patterns described above. Overall abundance was correlated with climate variables that relate to continentality. The abundances of birds within different migration strategies were correlated with a second climatic gradient , increasing precipitation from west to east. Models using descriptors of location generally had greater explanatory value for the abundance and species-richness response variables than did those based on climate data and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Main conclusions, The distribution patterns for migrant types were related to both climatic and locational variables, and thus the patterns could be explained by either climatic regime or the accessibility of winter habitats, both historically and currently. Non-boreal wintering habitat is more accessible from both the western and eastern ends than from the centre of the boreal forest belt, but the tropics are most accessible from the eastern end of the Palaearctic boreal zone, in terms of distance and the absence of geographical barriers. Based on comparisons with Canadian sites, we recommend that future comparative studies between Palaearctic and Nearctic faunas be focused more on Siberia and the Russian Far East, as well as on central and western Canada. [source] Effects of climate on the growth of exotic and indigenous trees in central ZambiaJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2005E. N. Chidumayo Abstract Aim, Climate change has far-reaching effects on species and ecosystems. The aims of this study were to determine how climate factors affect the growth pattern of indigenous and exotic trees in Zambia and to predict tree growth responses to a warmer climate with the use of mathematical models. Location, Two savanna sites in central Zambia. Methods, Diameter at breast height (1.3 m above ground, d.b.h.) of 91 permanently marked trees belonging to three indigenous and four exotic species was measured fortnightly for periods of 1,2 years from 1998 to 2003. Correlation and regression analysis was used to determine the effect of climate factors (minimum, maximum and average temperature and rainfall) on monthly daily d.b.h. increment of each species. Regression models were used to predict the growth behaviour of trees under a 0.5 °C warmer climate. Results, Interactions between temperature and rainfall explained 60,98% of the variation in d.b.h. increment in all the tree species, except the exotic Eucalyptus grandis. For deciduous species, stem expansion was delayed by 2,12 weeks following leaf-flush and d.b.h. increment peaked during the rainy season. Evergreen and deciduous species could not be separated on the basis of annual d.b.h. increment because the higher growth rates of deciduous species compensated for the shorter growing period. Mathematical models predicted slight changes in d.b.h. growth pattern under a 0.5 °C warmer climate in five of the seven species. Significant changes in d.b.h. growth patterns were predicted in the indigenous Bridelia micrantha and exotic Gmelina arborea under a warmer climate. However, models failed to adequately represent potential soil water stress that might result from changes in tree growth patterns and a warmer climate. Main conclusions, Climate factors explained a large proportion of the variation in diameter growth of both indigenous and exotic trees, rendering it possible to model tree growth patterns from climate data. Tree growth models suggest that a rise in temperature of 0.5 °C is unlikely to induce significant changes in the growth behaviour of the majority of the studied species. However, because the growth behaviour of some species may be substantially affected by climate change, it is recommended that strategies for the future production of such climate-sensitive trees should incorporate aspects of climate change. [source] Regional variability of climate,growth relationships in Pinus cembra high elevation forests in the AlpsJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2007MARCO CARRER Summary 1The tree-ring growth response of stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) to climatic variability was studied in the Alps. The aims were (i) to assess tree-ring growth patterns at different spatial-temporal scales; (ii) to identify the climate parameters that explain most of the variability in radial growth at different time domains; and (iii) to study past and current trends in radial growth and climate,growth relationships at different locations. 2High- and low-frequency stone pine chronologies were compiled for 30 treeline sites on the French and Italian Alps. We used gridded climate data computed from 200 years of instrumental records from an extensive Alpine network. Climate,growth relationships were computed with bootstrap correlation functions and their stationarity and consistency over time assessed with moving correlation. 3No spatial patterns were detected in stone pine chronology statistics despite the regional clustering observed in tree-ring series and climate responses. This can be attributed to (i) local weather variability; (ii) different biophysical conditions caused by soil moisture, solar radiation, snowmelt dynamics and growing season length; and (iii) forest stand history and age structure, the expression of long-term land use and disturbances. 4The exceptionally long-term climate records allowed significant stone pine growth response changes to be assessed at both annual and decadal time scales. Winter conditions and spring,summer temperatures mainly affected the growing season length, in addition to site carbon and water balance. Most of these limiting factors varied spatially and temporally along the latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in response to the corresponding changes in local conditions. 5Our results show evidence of a clear response variability of Pinus cembra to climate limiting factors, at both spatial and temporal scale. Such knowledge extended to other species and regions will provide better estimates of the effect of climate variability on species distribution and dynamics within global change scenarios and more accurate past climate reconstruction and forest ecosystem modelling. [source] A new European testate amoebae transfer function for palaeohydrological reconstruction on ombrotrophic peatlands,JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE, Issue 3 2007Dan J. Charman Abstract Proxy climate data can be obtained from reconstructions of hydrological changes on ombrotrophic (rain-fed) peatlands using biological indicators, such as testate amoebae. Reconstructions are based on transfer functions, relating modern assemblage composition to water table and moisture content, applied to fossil sequences. Existing transfer functions in Europe and elsewhere are limited geographically and there are often problems with missing or poor analogues. This paper presents a new palaeohydrological transfer function based on sampling raised mires from across Europe. Relationships between assemblages and hydrological variables are described using ordination analyses. Transfer functions are developed for depth to water table (n,=,119) and moisture content (n,=,132) with root mean squared errors (RMSEP) of 5.6,cm and 2.7% respectively. Both transfer functions have an r2 of 0.71, based on ,leave one out' cross-validation. Comparisons with an existing transfer function for Britain show that the European transfer function performs well in inferring measured water tables in Britain but that the British data cannot be used to infer water tables for other European sites with confidence. Several of the key missing and poor analogue taxa problems encountered in previous transfer functions are solved. The new transfer function will be an important tool in developing peat-based palaeoclimatic reconstructions for European sites. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Historical instrumental climate data for Australia,quality and utility for palaeoclimatic studies,JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE, Issue 7 2006Neville Nicholls Abstract The quality and availability of climate data suitable for palaeoclimatic calibration and verification for the Australian region are discussed and documented. Details of the various datasets, including problems with the data, are presented. High-quality datasets, where such problems are reduced or even eliminated, are discussed. Many climate datasets are now analysed onto grids, facilitating the preparation of regional-average time series. Work is under way to produce such high-quality, gridded datasets for a variety of hitherto unavailable climate data, including surface humidity, pan evaporation, wind, and cloud. An experiment suggests that only a relatively small number of palaeoclimatic time series could provide a useful estimate of long-term changes in Australian annual average temperature. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Post-fire tree establishment patterns at the alpine treeline ecotone: Mount Rainier National Park, Washington, USAJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 1 2009Kirk M. Stueve Abstract Questions: Does tree establishment: (1) occur at a treeline depressed by fire, (2) cause the forest line to ascend upslope, and/or (3) alter landscape heterogeneity? (4) What abiotic and biotic local site conditions are most important in structuring establishment patterns? (5) Does the abiotic setting become more important with increasing upslope distance from the forest line? Location: Western slopes of Mount Rainier, USA. Methods: We performed classification analysis of 1970 satellite imagery and 2003 aerial photography to delineate establishment. Local site conditions were calculated from a LIDAR-based DEM, ancillary climate data, and 1970 tree locations in a GIS. We used logistic regression on a spatially weighted landscape matrix to rank variables. Results: Considerable establishment after 1970 caused forest line elevation to increase over 150 m in specific locations. Landscape heterogeneity increased with distance from the 1970 forest line. At a broad spatial context, we found establishment was most common near existing trees (0-50 m) and at low elevations (1250-1350 m). Slope aspect (W, NW, N, NE, and E), slope angle (40-60°), and other abiotic factors emerged as important predictors of establishment with increasing upslope distance from the forest line to restricted spatial extents. Conclusions: Favorable climatic conditions likely triggered widespread tree establishment. Readily available seed probably enhanced establishment rates near sexually mature trees, particularly in the less stressful environment at low elevations. The mass effect of nearly ubiquitous establishment in these areas may have obscured the importance of the abiotic setting to restricted spatial extents. Topographic variability apparently produced favorable sites that facilitated opportunistic establishment with increasing upslope distance from the forest line, thereby enabling additional trees to invade the alpine tundra. [source] Climate for crops: integrating climate data with information about soils and crop requirements to reduce risks in agricultural decision-makingMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 4 2006D. S. Wratt Abstract Locally applicable information about climate and soil properties can help farmers identify opportunities and reduce risks associated with changing to new land uses. This article describes techniques for preparing high-resolution regional maps and GIS surfaces of agriculturally relevant climate parameters. Ways of combining these climate surfaces with soil data and information about the physical requirements of crops to identify areas likely to be the most suitable for new high-value crops are then outlined. Innovative features include methods for merging observations from temporary climate stations installed for one to two years in conjunction with longer-term climate station observations to improve input data for the maps, and techniques for mapping quantiles of climatic factors that may constrain agricultural operations. Examples are the expected ,one-in-five year' first and last frost dates, and the ,one-in-five year' lowest and highest seasonal rainfalls. The use of night-time satellite infrared observations to improve spatial resolution of frost hazard maps is also described. Typical standard errors of these climate mapping techniques are summarised. The benefits of ongoing consultation with local farmers and local government staff during the design and implementation of climate/soil/crop potential studies are described. These include optimising products to meet local needs, quality control of the resulting maps and GIS surfaces through local knowledge, and improved uptake of information by users. Further applications of techniques described in this paper include products useful to the energy sector, preparation of daily gridded climate data estimates for use in water quality and plant growth modelling, and development of regional climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Combined ecological niche modelling and molecular phylogeography revealed the evolutionary history of Hordeum marinum (Poaceae) , niche differentiation, loss of genetic diversity, and speciation in Mediterranean Quaternary refugiaMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 8 2007SABINE S. JAKOB Abstract The Hordeum marinum species group consists of two annual grasses of western Eurasian saline meadows or marshes. The two grasses split in the Quaternary about two million years ago. Hordeum marinum and the diploid of Hordeum gussoneanum (2×) co-occur throughout the Mediterranean basin, while the autotetraploid cytotype of H. gussoneanum (4×) overlaps with its diploid progenitor geographically only in the utmost Eastern Mediterranean, extending from there eastwards into Asia. Using chloroplast sequences of the trnL-F region, six newly developed chloroplast microsatellite loci, ecological predictive models based on climate data, and the present geographical distribution of the two species we analysed differentiation processes in the H. marinum group. The chloroplast data indicated clear differences in the history of both species. For H. marinum we found a subdivision between genetically variable populations from the Iberian Peninsula and the more uniform populations from the remaining Mediterranean. As an explanation, we assume Pleistocene fragmentation of an earlier widespread population and survival in an Iberian and a Central Mediterranean glacial refuge. Chloroplast variation was completely absent within the cytotypes of H. gussoneanum, indicating a severe and recent genetic bottleneck. Due to this lack of chloroplast variation only the combination of ecological habitat modelling with molecular data analyses allowed conclusions about the history of this taxon. The distribution areas of the two cytotypes of H. gussoneanum overlap today in parts of Turkey, indicating an area with similar climate conditions during polyploid formation. However, after its origin the polyploid cytotype underwent a pronounced ecological shift, compared to its diploid progenitor, allowing it to colonize mountainous inland habitats between the Mediterranean basin and Afghanistan. The extant sympatric occurrence of H. marinum and H. gussoneanum 2× in the Mediterranean region is interpreted as a result of secondary contact after fast Holocene range expansion out of different ice age refugia. [source] Mapping members of the Anopheles gambiae complex using climate dataPHYSIOLOGICAL ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 3 2004S. W. Lindsay Abstract., Climate is the most important factor governing the distribution of insects over large areas. Warmth and moisture are essential for most insects' reproduction, development and survival. Here, it is shown that the principal vectors of malaria in Africa, members of the Anopheles gambiae complex, flourish within specific climate envelopes. By identifying these climatic conditions empirically, using climate or environmental databases, it is possible to map the distribution and relative abundance of mosquito species, and their chromosomal forms, at continental scales. Alternatively, mathematical models based on a fundamental understanding of how mosquitoes are affected by different climate factors, such as temperature and humidity, can also be employed to map distributions. Empirical or process-driven models based on climate, or other environmental variables, provide simple tools for mapping the distribution and relative abundance of vectors at a coarse scale over large areas. [source] | ||||||||||||||||