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Changing Climate (changing + climate)
Selected AbstractsChanging climate and historic-woodland structure interact to control species diversity of the ,Lobarion' epiphyte community in ScotlandJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 5 2007Christopher J. Ellis Abstract Question: How will changing climate and habitat structure interact to control the species diversity of lichen epiphytes? Location: Scotland. Method: Species richness (=diversity) of the epiphyte lichen community known as Lobarion (named after Lobaria pulmonaria) was quantified for 94 Populus tremula stands across Scotland, and compared in a predictive model to seven climate variables and eight measures of woodland structure. An optimum model was selected and used to project Lobarion diversity over the geographic range of the study area, based on IPCC climate change scenarios and hypothetical shifts in woodland structure. Results: Species diversity of the Lobarion community was best explained by three climate variables: (1) average annual temperature; (2) autumn and winter precipitation; in combination with (3) historic-woodland extent. Projections indicate a positive effect of predicted climate change on Lobarion diversity, consistent with the physiological traits of cyanobac-terial lichens comprising the Lobarion. However, the general response to climate is modified significantly by the effect on diversity of historic-woodland extent. Conclusions: Historic-woodland extent may exert an important control over local climate, as well as impacting upon the metapopulation dynamics of species in the Lobarion. In particular, a temporal delay in the response of Lobarion species to changed woodland structure is critical to our understanding of future climate change effects. Future Lobarion diversity (e.g. in the 2050s) may depend upon the interaction of contemporary climate (e.g. 2050s climate) and historic habitat structure (e.g. 1950s woodland extent). This is supported by previous observations for an extinction debt amongst lichen epiphytes, but suggests an extension of simple climate-response models is necessary, before their wider application to lichen epiphyte diversity. [source] Conservation action in a changing climateCONSERVATION LETTERS, Issue 2 2008T.R. McClanahan Abstract Climate change will pose new challenges to conserving Earth's natural ecosystems, due to incremental changes in temperature and weather patterns, and to increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Addressing these challenges will require pragmatic conservation actions informed by site-specific understanding of susceptibility to climate change and capacity of societies to cope with and adapt to change. Depending on a location's environmental susceptibility and social adaptive capacity, appropriate conservation actions will require some combination of: (1) large-scale protection of ecosystems; (2) actively transforming and adapting social-ecological systems; (3) building the capacity of communities to cope with change; and (4) government assistance focused on de-coupling communities from dependence on natural resources. We apply a novel analytical framework to examine conservation actions in five western Indian Ocean countries, where climate-mediated disturbance has impacted coral reefs and where adaptive capacity differs markedly. We find that current conservation strategies do not reflect adaptive capacity and are, therefore, ill prepared for climate change. We provide a vision for conservation policies that considers social adaptive capacity that copes with complexities of climate change better than the singular emphasis on government control and the creation of no-take areas. [source] Responses of global plant diversity capacity to changes in carbon dioxide concentration and climateECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 11 2008F. I. Woodward Abstract We model plant species diversity globally by country to show that future plant diversity capacity has a strong dependence on changing climate and carbon dioxide concentration. CO2 increase, through its impact on net primary production and warming is predicted to increase regional diversity capacity, while warming with constant CO2 leads to decreases in diversity capacity. Increased CO2 concentrations are unlikely to counter projected extinctions of endemic species, shown in earlier studies to be more strongly dependent on changing land use patterns than climate per se. Model predictions were tested against (1) contemporary observations of tree species diversity in different biomes, (2) an independent global map of contemporary species diversity and (3) time sequences of plant naturalisation for different locations. Good agreements between model, observations and naturalisation patterns support the suggestion that future diversity capacity increases are likely to be filled from a ,cosmopolitan weed pool' for which migration appears to be an insignificant barrier. [source] Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate changeECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 9 2005Alistair S. Jump Abstract Climate is a potent selective force in natural populations, yet the importance of adaptation in the response of plant species to past climate change has been questioned. As many species are unlikely to migrate fast enough to track the rapidly changing climate of the future, adaptation must play an increasingly important role in their response. In this paper we review recent work that has documented climate-related genetic diversity within populations or on the microgeographical scale. We then describe studies that have looked at the potential evolutionary responses of plant populations to future climate change. We argue that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition. The consequences are likely to include unpredictable changes in the presence and abundance of species within communities and a reduction in their ability to resist and recover from further environmental perturbations, such as pest and disease outbreaks and extreme climatic events. Overall, a range-wide increase in extinction risk is likely to result. We call for further research into understanding the causes and consequences of the maintenance and loss of climate-related genetic diversity within populations. [source] A model for predicting the emergence of dragonflies in a changing climateFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 9 2008OTTO RICHTER Summary 1. Precise models for the phenology of different species are essential for predicting the potential effects of any temporal mismatch of life cycles with environmental parameters under different climate change scenarios. Here we investigated the effects of ambient water temperature on the onset and synchrony of emergence for a widespread European riverine dragonfly, Gomphus vulgatissimus. 2. Long-term field data on the annual emergence from two rivers in northern Germany, and additional data from a laboratory experiment with different temperature regimes, were used to develop a model that predicted the onset of emergence by using mainly the temperature sum (degree days) as a parameter. 3. Model predictions of the onset of emergence fitted the observations well and could be transferred between localities. This was particularly so when weighting early winter temperature data by using a day length and a temperature-response function, implying potential additional control mechanisms for the onset of emergence. 4. We simulated effects of different winter temperature regimes on the emergence curves in order to predict the effects of climate change. These indicated an acceleration of emergence by 6,7 days per 1 °C temperature increase, which is corroborated by the laboratory data and is in the upper range of data published for other dragonflies. [source] Teaching and Learning Guide for: The Geopolitics of Climate ChangeGEOGRAPHY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 5 2008Jon Barnett Author's Introduction Climate change is a security problem in as much as the kinds of environmental changes that may result pose risks to peace and development. However, responsibilities for the causes of climate change, vulnerability to its effects, and capacity to solve the problem, are not equally distributed between countries, classes and cultures. There is no uniformity in the geopolitics of climate change, and this impedes solutions. Author Recommends 1.,Adger, W. N., et al. (eds) (2006). Fairness in adaptation to climate change. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. A comprehensive collection of articles on the justice dimensions of adaptation to climate change. Chapters discuss potential points at which climate change becomes ,dangerous', the issue of adaptation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the unequal outcomes of adaptation within a society, the effects of violent conflict on adaptation, the costs of adaptation, and examples from Bangladesh, Tanzania, Botswana, and Hungary. 2.,Leichenko, R., and O'Brien, K. (2008). Environmental change and globalization: double exposures. New York: Oxford University Press. This book uses examples from around the world to show the way global economic and political processes interact with environmental changes to create unequal outcomes within and across societies. A very clear demonstration of the way vulnerability to environmental change is as much driven by social processes as environmental ones, and how solutions lie within the realm of decisions about ,development' and ,environment'. 3.,Nordås, R., and Gleditsch, N. (2007). Climate conflict: common sense or nonsense? Political Geography 26 (6), pp. 627,638. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.003 An up-to-date, systematic and balanced review of research on the links between climate change and violent conflict. See also the other papers in this special issue of Political Geography. 4.,Parry, M., et al. (eds) (2007). Climate change 2007: impacts adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. The definitive review of all the peer-reviewed research on the way climate change may impact on places and sectors across the world. Includes chapters on ecosystems, health, human settlements, primary industries, water resources, and the major regions of the world. All chapters are available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm 5.,Salehyan, I. (2008). From climate change to conflict? No consensus yet. Journal of Peace Research 45 (3), pp. 315,326. doi:10.1177/0022343308088812 A balanced review of research on the links between climate change and conflict, with attention to existing evidence. 6.,Schwartz, P., and Randall, D. (2003). An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for United States national security. San Francisco, CA: Global Business Network. Gives insight into how the US security policy community is framing the problem of climate change. This needs to be read critically. Available at http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=26231 7.,German Advisory Council on Global Change. (2007). World in transition: climate change as a security risk. Berlin, Germany: WBGU. A major report from the German Advisory Council on Global Change on the risks climate changes poses to peace and stability. Needs to be read with caution. Summary and background studies are available online at http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg2007_engl.html 8.,Yamin, F., and Depedge, J. (2004). The International climate change regime: a guide to rules, institutions and procedures. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. A clear and very detailed explanation of the UNFCCC's objectives, actors, history, and challenges. A must read for anyone seeking to understand the UNFCCC process, written by two scholars with practical experience in negotiations. Online Materials 1.,Environmental Change and Security Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars http://www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp The major website for information about environmental security. From here, you can download many reports and studies, including the Environmental Change and Security Project Report. 2.,Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project http://www.gechs.org This website is a clearing house for work and events on environmental change and human security. 3.,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/ From this website, you can download all the chapters of all the IPCC's reports, including its comprehensive and highly influential assessment reports, the most recent of which was published in 2007. The IPCC were awarded of the Nobel Peace Prize ,for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made (sic) climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change'. 4.,Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://www.tyndall.ac.uk The website of a major centre for research on climate change, and probably the world's leading centre for social science based analysis of climate change. From this site, you can download many publications about mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, and about various issues in the UNFCCC. 5.,United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change http://unfccc.int/ The website contains every major document relation to the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol, including the text of the agreements, national communications, country submissions, negotiated outcomes, and background documents about most key issues. Sample Syllabus: The Geopolitics of Climate Change topics for lecture and discussion Week I: Introduction Barnett, J. (2007). The geopolitics of climate change. Geography Compass 1 (6), pp. 1361,1375. United Nations Secretary General, Kofi Annan, address to the 12th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Nairobi, 15 November 2006. Available online at http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=495&ArticleID=5424&l=en Week II: The History and Geography of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Topic: The drivers of climate change in space and time Reading Baer, P. (2006). Adaptation: who pays whom? In: Adger, N., et al. (eds) Fairness in adaptation to climate change. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 131,154. Boyden, S., and Dovers, S. (1992). Natural-resource consumption and its environmental impacts in the Western World: impacts of increasing per capita consumption. Ambio 21 (1), pp. 63,69. Week III: The Environmental Consequences of climate change Topic: The risks climate change poses to environmental systems Reading Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate change 2007: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: summary for policymakers. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC Secretariat. Watch: Al Gore. The Inconvenient Truth. Weeks IV and V: The Social Consequences of Climate Change Topic: The risks climate change poses to social systems Reading Adger, W. N. (1999). Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam. World Development 27, pp. 249,269. Comrie, A. (2007). Climate change and human health. Geography Compass 1 (3), pp. 325,339. Leary, N., et al. (2006). For whom the bell tolls: vulnerability in a changing climate. A Synthesis from the AIACC project, AIACC Working Paper No. 21, International START Secretariat, Florida. Stern, N. (2007). Economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press (Chapters 3,5). Week VI: Mitigation of Climate Change: The UNFCCC Topic: The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Reading Najam, A., Huq, S., and Sokona, Y. (2003). Climate negotiations beyond Kyoto: developing countries concerns and interests. Climate Policy 3 (3), pp. 221,231. UNFCCC Secretariat. (2005). Caring for climate: a guide to the climate change convention and the Kyoto Protocol. Bonn, Germany: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat. Weeks VII and VIII: Adaptation to Climate Change Topic: What can be done to allow societies to adapt to avoid climate impacts? Reading Adger, N., et al. (2007). Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. In: Parry, M., et al. (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 717,744. Burton, I., et al. (2002). From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy. Climate Policy 2 (2,3), pp. 145,159. Eakin, H., and Lemos, M. C. (2006). Adaptation and the state: Latin America and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization. Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions 16 (1), pp. 7,18. Ziervogel, G., Bharwani, S., and Downing, T. (2006). Adapting to climate variability: pumpkins, people and policy. Natural Resources Forum 30, pp. 294,305. Weeks IX and X: Climate Change and Migration Topic: Will climate change force migration? Readings Gaim, K. (1997). Environmental causes and impact of refugee movements: a critique of the current debate. Disasters 21 (1), pp. 20,38. McLeman, R., and Smit, B. (2006). Migration as adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change 76 (1), pp. 31,53. Myers, N. (2002). Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 357 (1420), pp. 609,613. Perch-Nielsen, S., Bättig, M., and Imboden, D. (2008). Exploring the link between climate change and migration. Climatic Change (online first, forthcoming); doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9416-y Weeks XI and XII: Climate Change and Violent Conflict Topic: Will Climate change cause violent conflict? Readings Barnett, J., and Adger, N. (2007). Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Political Geography 26 (6), pp. 639,655. Centre for Strategic and International Studies. (2007). The age of consequences: the foreign policy and national security implications of global climate change. Washington, DC: CSIS. Nordås, R., and Gleditsch, N. (2007). Climate conflict: common sense or nonsense? Political Geography 26 (6), pp. 627,638. Schwartz, P., and Randall, D. (2003). An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for United States national security. San Francisco, CA: Global Business Network. [online]. Retrieved on 8 April 2007 from http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=26231 Focus Questions 1Who is most responsible for climate change? 2Who is most vulnerable to climate change? 3Does everyone have equal power in the UNFCCC process? 4Will climate change force people to migrate? Who? 5What is the relationship between adaptation to climate change and violent conflict? [source] Contemporary climate change in the Sonoran Desert favors cold-adapted speciesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2010SARAH KIMBALL Abstract Impacts of long-term climate shifts on the dynamics of intact communities within species ranges are not well understood. Here, we show that warming and drying of the Southwestern United States over the last 25 years has corresponded to a shift in the species composition of Sonoran Desert winter annuals, paradoxically favoring species that germinate and grow best in cold temperatures. Winter rains have been arriving later in the season, during December rather than October, leading to the unexpected result that plants are germinating under colder temperatures, shifting community composition to favor slow growing, water-use efficient, cold-adapted species. Our results demonstrate how detailed ecophysiological knowledge of individual species, combined with long-term demographic data, can reveal complex and sometimes unexpected shifts in community composition in response to climate change. Further, these results highlight the potentially overwhelming impact of changes in phenology on the response of biota to a changing climate. [source] Modelling carbon balances of coastal arctic tundra under changing climateGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2003Robert F. Grant Abstract Rising air temperatures are believed to be hastening heterotrophic respiration (Rh) in arctic tundra ecosystems, which could lead to substantial losses of soil carbon (C). In order to improve confidence in predicting the likelihood of such loss, the comprehensive ecosystem model ecosys was first tested with carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes measured over a tundra soil in a growth chamber under various temperatures and soil-water contents (,). The model was then tested with CO2 and energy fluxes measured over a coastal arctic tundra near Barrow, Alaska, under a range of weather conditions during 1998,1999. A rise in growth chamber temperature from 7 to 15 °C caused large, but commensurate, rises in respiration and CO2 fixation, and so no significant effect on net CO2 exchange was modelled or measured. An increase in growth chamber , from field capacity to saturation caused substantial reductions in respiration but not in CO2 fixation, and so an increase in net CO2 exchange was modelled and measured. Long daylengths over the coastal tundra at Barrow caused an almost continuous C sink to be modelled and measured during most of July (2,4 g C m,2 d,1), but shortening daylengths and declining air temperatures caused a C source to be modelled and measured by early September (,1 g C m,2 d,1). At an annual time scale, the coastal tundra was modelled to be a small C sink (4 g C m,2 y,1) during 1998 when average air temperatures were 4 °C above normal, and a larger C sink (16 g C m,2 y,1) during 1999 when air temperatures were close to long-term normals. During 100 years under rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (Ca), air temperature and precipitation driven by the IS92a emissions scenario, modelled Rh rose commensurately with net primary productivity (NPP) under both current and elevated rates of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, so that changes in soil C remained small. However, methane (CH4) emissions were predicted to rise substantially in coastal tundra with IS92a-driven climate change (from ,20 to ,40 g C m,2 y,1), causing a substantial increase in the emission of CO2 equivalents. If the rate of temperature increase hypothesized in the IS92a emissions scenario had been raised by 50%, substantial losses of soil C (,1 kg C m,2) would have been modelled after 100 years, including additional emissions of CH4. [source] Responses of gas exchange and growth in Merkus pine seedlings to expected climatic changes in ThailandGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2001Jarkko Koskela Abstract Responses of gas exchange and growth in Merkus pine (Pinus merkusii Jungh. et de Vriese) seedlings to changing climate were analysed for high- and low-altitude sites in Thailand. A gas exchange model, based on the optimality approach, derived the effect of drought from the probability of rains. A carbon-and nitrogen-balance growth model applied structural regularities of a tree and a modification of functional balance between foliage and fine roots as growth- guiding rules. Adaptation to local climates was incorporated in the models. The simulations yielded physiologically reasonable behaviour for annual photosynthesis (A) and transpiration (E) in relation to the distributions of precipitation over the course of a year. An annual temperature increase of 2 °C and a prolonged dry season (scenario 2) reduced A by 5,11% and E by 5,8% as compared to present climate (scenario 1). Doubled CO2 concentration and the increased temperature (scenario 3) enhanced A by 56,59% and E by 14%. Simultaneously these changes (scenario 4) increased A by 41,53% and E by 1,5%. Simulated growth in scenario 1 fitted reasonably well to field data. By the age of five years, simulated total biomass (TB) and height (h) were reduced by 31,67% and 12,42%, respectively, in scenario 2 compared to scenario 1. In scenario 3, TB and h increased by 279,330% and 94,191%, and in scenario 4, by 83,241% and 55,69%, respectively. Large increases in TB and h are explained by the exponential growth phase of the young seedlings. These results suggest that climatic changes enhance growth and thus shorten the duration of the grass stage in these seedlings. However, the effects of climatic changes on growth depend strongly on how rainfall seasonality is altered in SE Asia because prolonged drought episodes may retard the fertilizing effects of the increasing CO2 concentration. [source] New insights into global patterns of ocean temperature anomalies: implications for coral reef health and managementGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Elizabeth R. Selig ABSTRACT Aim, Coral reefs are widely considered to be particularly vulnerable to changes in ocean temperatures, yet we understand little about the broad-scale spatio-temporal patterns that may cause coral mortality from bleaching and disease. Our study aimed to characterize these ocean temperature patterns at biologically relevant scales. Location, Global, with a focus on coral reefs. Methods, We created a 4-km resolution, 21-year global ocean temperature anomaly (deviations from long-term means) database to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature anomalies related to both coral bleaching and disease. Then we tested how patterns varied in several key metrics of disturbance severity, including anomaly frequency, magnitude, duration and size. Results, Our analyses found both global variation in temperature anomalies and fine-grained spatial variability in the frequency, duration and magnitude of temperature anomalies. However, we discovered that even during major climatic events with strong spatial signatures, like the El Niño,Southern Oscillation, areas that had high numbers of anomalies varied between years. In addition, we found that 48% of bleaching-related anomalies and 44% of disease-related anomalies were less than 50 km2, much smaller than the resolution of most models used to forecast climate changes. Main conclusions, The fine-scale variability in temperature anomalies has several key implications for understanding spatial patterns in coral bleaching- and disease-related anomalies as well as for designing protected areas to conserve coral reefs in a changing climate. Spatial heterogeneity in temperature anomalies suggests that certain reefs could be targeted for protection because they exhibit differences in thermal stress. However, temporal variability in anomalies could complicate efforts to protect reefs, because high anomalies in one year are not necessarily predictive of future patterns of stress. Together, our results suggest that temperature anomalies related to coral bleaching and disease are likely to be highly heterogeneous and could produce more localized impacts of climate change. [source] Enabling regional management in a changing climate through Bayesian meta-analysis of a large-scale disturbanceGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010M Aaron MacNeil ABSTRACT Aim, Quantifying and predicting change in large ecosystems is an important research objective for applied ecologists as human disturbance effects become increasingly evident at regional and global scales. However, studies used to make inferences about large-scale change are frequently of uneven quality and few in number, having been undertaken to study local, rather than global, change. Our aim is to improve the quality of inferences that can be made in meta-analyses of large-scale disturbance by integrating studies of varying quality in a unified modelling framework that is informative for both local and regional management. Innovation, Here we improve conventionally structured meta-analysis methods by including imputation of unknown study variances and the use of Bayesian factor potentials. The approach is a coherent framework for integrating data of varying quality across multiple studies while facilitating belief statements about the uncertainty in parameter estimates and the probable outcome of future events. The approach is applied to a regional meta-analysis of the effects of loss of coral cover on species richness and the abundance of coral-dependent fishes in the western Indian Ocean (WIO) before and after a mass bleaching event in 1998. Main conclusions, Our Bayesian approach to meta-analysis provided greater precision of parameter estimates than conventional weighted linear regression meta-analytical techniques, allowing us to integrate all available data from 66 available study locations in the WIO across multiple scales. The approach thereby: (1) estimated uncertainty in site-level estimates of change, (2) provided a regional estimate for future change at any given site in the WIO, and (3) provided a probabilistic belief framework for future management of reef resources at both local and regional scales. [source] Observations and recommendations for assessing patient satisfaction in a primary care setting using a previously validated questionnaireHEALTH & SOCIAL CARE IN THE COMMUNITY, Issue 2 2000Anné-Lise McDonald BA MSc Abstract Within the rapidly changing climate of primary care, there is an increasing need to evaluate the reactions of patients to real and proposed changes in practice. There are a number of methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative which have been employed to do this. This article presents the methodological problems which may be encountered in evaluating patients' opinions and attitudes in a primary care setting. We begin by discussing the issues which need evaluation, then describe the research process of a recent case study which aimed to evaluate patient satisfaction using a previously validated survey instrument, including the modifications which had to be made to overcome the problems of research in a real life practice setting. We then discuss the strengths and weaknesses of applying different methodological instruments within a primary care setting, and propose a mixed methodological framework as a template for future research which combines the strengths of both large scale survey and small scale qualitative methods to give more insight into the concerns and beliefs of patients as changes occur within their local practice. [source] Modelling runoff from highly glacierized alpine drainage basins in a changing climateHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 19 2008Matthias Huss Abstract The future runoff from three highly glacierized alpine catchments is assessed for the period 2007,2100 using a glacio-hydrological model including the change in glacier coverage. We apply scenarios for the seasonal change in temperature and precipitation derived from regional climate models. Glacier surface mass balance and runoff are calculated in daily time-steps using a distributed temperature-index melt and accumulation model. Model components account for changes in glacier extent and surface elevation, evaporation and runoff routing. The model is calibrated and validated using decadal ice volume changes derived from four digital elevation models (DEMs) between 1962 and 2006, and monthly runoff measured at a gauging station (1979,2006). Annual runoff from the drainage basins shows an initial increase which is due to the release of water from glacial storage. After some decades, depending on catchment characteristics and the applied climate change scenario, runoff stabilizes and then drops below the current level. In all climate projections, the glacier area shrinks dramatically. There is an increase in runoff during spring and early summer, whereas the runoff in July and August decreases significantly. This study highlights the impact of glaciers and their future changes on runoff from high alpine drainage basins. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Simulating the response of a closed-basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana)HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 13 2007Timothy M. Shanahan Abstract Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment-scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939,2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data-sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley,Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy-budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer-term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Ecometrics: The traits that bind the past and present togetherINTEGRATIVE ZOOLOGY (ELECTRONIC), Issue 2 2010Jussi T. ERONEN Abstract We outline here an approach for understanding the biology of climate change, one that integrates data at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Taxon-free trait analysis, or "ecometrics," is based on the idea that the distribution in a community of ecomorphological traits such as tooth structure, limb proportions, body mass, leaf shape, incubation temperature, claw shape, any aspect of anatomy or physiology can be measured across some subset of the organisms in a community. Regardless of temporal or spatial scale, traits are the means by which organisms interact with their environment, biotic and abiotic. Ecometrics measures these interactions by focusing on traits which are easily measurable, whose structure is closely related to their function, and whose function interacts directly with local environment. Ecometric trait distributions are thus a comparatively universal metric for exploring systems dynamics at all scales. The main challenge now is to move beyond investigating how future climate change will affect the distribution of organisms and how it will impact ecosystem services and to shift the perspective to ask how biotic systems interact with changing climate in general, and how climate change affects the interactions within and between the components of the whole biotic-physical system. We believe that it is possible to provide believable, quantitative answers to these questions. Because of this we have initiated an IUBS program iCCB (integrative Climate Change Biology). [source] Assessing future changes in extreme precipitation over Britain using regional climate model integrationsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2001P.D. Jones Abstract In a changing climate it is important to understand how all components of the climate system may change. For many impact sectors, particularly those relating to flooding and water resources, changes in precipitation intensity and amount are much more important than changes in temperature. This study assesses possible changes in extreme precipitation intensities estimated through both quantile and return period analysis over Britain. Results using a regional climate model (with greenhouse gas changes following the IS92a scenario for 2080,2100) indicate dramatic increases in the heaviest precipitation events over Britain. The results provide information to alter design storm intensities to take future climate change into account, for structures/projects that have long life times. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Conflict, Collaboration and Climate Change: Participatory Democracy and Urban Environmental Struggles in Durban, South AfricaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN AND REGIONAL RESEARCH, Issue 3 2010ALEX AYLETTArticle first published online: 28 JUN 2010 The South Durban Basin on the eastern coast of South Africa is home to both a large-scale petrochemical industry and a highly mobilized residential community. In a conflict cemented by apartheid-era planning, the community's campaigns to improve local air quality provide a test case for the value of conflict for participatory democratic structures. In the context of the work of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the South Durban Basin also provides an opportunity to push the boundaries of the established links between participation and the design and implementation of responses to a changing climate. Contributing to one of the main themes of the symposium, this article argues that the focus on collaboration and compromise within studies of governance and participation overlooks both the reality of conflict and its potentially positive effects. Addressing this requires particular attention to how power relationships influence processes of governance, and the role of civil society in balancing the influence of the private sector on the state. It also calls for a better understanding of conflict and collaboration as mutually re-enforcing elements of an ongoing and dynamic political process. Together, the elements of this critique help to build a more nuanced view of participatory urban governance: one that both better describes and may better facilitate the ability of urban populations to collectively, effectively and rapidly respond to the challenges of a changing climate. Résumé Le bassin Sud de Durban, situé sur la côte Est de l'Afrique du Sud, abrite à la fois un vaste secteur pétrochimique et une communauté résidentielle particulièrement mobilisée. Dans une lutte cimentée par un urbanisme datant de l'apartheid, les campagnes communautaires pour améliorer la qualité de l'air local testent la valeur de la lutte en faveur de structures démocratiques participatives. De plus, dans le cadre des travaux du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC), le bassin Sud de Durban offre une occasion de repousser les limites des liens établis entre la participation, d'une part, et l'élaboration et la mise en ,uvre de réponses au changement climatique, d'autre part. Contribuant à l'un des principaux thèmes du symposium, cet article montre que, compte tenu de leur focalisation sur la collaboration et le compromis, les études sur la gouvernance et la participation négligent la réalité de la lutte autant que ses effets positifs potentiels. Pour ce faire, il examine comment les relations de pouvoir modulent les processus de gouvernance ainsi que le rôle de la société civile visant àéquilibrer l'influence du secteur privé sur l'État. Il convient également de mieux appréhender lutte et collaboration comme des composantes qui se nourrissent mutuellement dans un processus politique permanent et dynamique. Les éléments de cette analyse critique, une fois réunis, aident àélaborer une vision plus nuancée de la gouvernance urbaine participative. Cette vision offre une meilleure description et peut faciliter l'aptitude des populations urbaines à réagir de façon collective, efficace et rapide aux défis du changement climatique. [source] The anatomy of predator,prey dynamics in a changing climateJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2007CHRISTOPHER C. WILMERS Summary 1Humans are increasingly influencing global climate and regional predator assemblages, yet a mechanistic understanding of how climate and predation interact to affect fluctuations in prey populations is currently lacking. 2Here we develop a modelling framework to explore the effects of different predation strategies on the response of age-structured prey populations to a changing climate. 3We show that predation acts in opposition to temporal correlation in climatic conditions to suppress prey population fluctuations. 4Ambush predators such as lions are shown to be more effective at suppressing fluctuations in their prey than cursorial predators such as wolves, which chase down prey over long distances, because they are more effective predators on prime-aged adults. 5We model climate as a Markov process and explore the consequences of future changes in climatic autocorrelation for population dynamics. We show that the presence of healthy predator populations will be particularly important in dampening prey population fluctuations if temporal correlation in climatic conditions increases in the future. [source] ORIGINAL ARTICLE: Towards an understanding of the Holocene distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2007Thomas Giesecke Abstract Aim, Understanding the driving forces and mechanisms of changes in past plant distribution and abundance will help assess the biological consequences of future climate change scenarios. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether modelled patterns of climate parameters 6000 years ago can account for the European distribution of Fagus sylvatica at that time. Consideration is also given to the role of non-climatic parameters as driving forces of the Holocene spread and population expansion of F. sylvatica. Location, Europe. Methods, European distributions were simulated using a physiologically-based bioclimatic model (STASH) driven by three different atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs for 6000 years ago. Results, The three simulations generally showed F. sylvatica to have potentially been as widespread 6000 years ago as it is today, which gives a profound mismatch with pollen-based reconstructions of the F. sylvatica distribution at that time. The results indicate that drier conditions during the growing season 6000 years ago could have caused a restriction of the range in the south. Poorer growth conditions with consequently reduced competitive ability were modelled for large parts of France. Main conclusions, Consideration of the entire European range of F. sylvatica showed that no single driving force could account for the observed distributional limits 6000 years ago, or the pattern of spread during the Holocene. Climatic factors, particularly drought during the growing season, are the likely major determinants of the potential range. Climatic factors are regionally moderated by competition, disturbance effects and the intrinsically slow rate of population increase of F. sylvatica. Dynamic vegetation modelling is needed to account for potentially important competitive interactions and their relationship with changing climate. We identify uncertainties in the climate and pollen data, as well as the bioclimatic model, which suggest that the current study does not identify whether or not climate determined the distribution of F. sylvatica 6000 years ago. Pollen data are better suited for comparison with relative abundance gradients rather than absolute distributional limits. These uncertainties from a study of the past, where we have information about plant distribution and abundance, argue for extreme caution in making forecasts for the future using equilibrium models. [source] Changing climate and historic-woodland structure interact to control species diversity of the ,Lobarion' epiphyte community in ScotlandJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 5 2007Christopher J. Ellis Abstract Question: How will changing climate and habitat structure interact to control the species diversity of lichen epiphytes? Location: Scotland. Method: Species richness (=diversity) of the epiphyte lichen community known as Lobarion (named after Lobaria pulmonaria) was quantified for 94 Populus tremula stands across Scotland, and compared in a predictive model to seven climate variables and eight measures of woodland structure. An optimum model was selected and used to project Lobarion diversity over the geographic range of the study area, based on IPCC climate change scenarios and hypothetical shifts in woodland structure. Results: Species diversity of the Lobarion community was best explained by three climate variables: (1) average annual temperature; (2) autumn and winter precipitation; in combination with (3) historic-woodland extent. Projections indicate a positive effect of predicted climate change on Lobarion diversity, consistent with the physiological traits of cyanobac-terial lichens comprising the Lobarion. However, the general response to climate is modified significantly by the effect on diversity of historic-woodland extent. Conclusions: Historic-woodland extent may exert an important control over local climate, as well as impacting upon the metapopulation dynamics of species in the Lobarion. In particular, a temporal delay in the response of Lobarion species to changed woodland structure is critical to our understanding of future climate change effects. Future Lobarion diversity (e.g. in the 2050s) may depend upon the interaction of contemporary climate (e.g. 2050s climate) and historic habitat structure (e.g. 1950s woodland extent). This is supported by previous observations for an extinction debt amongst lichen epiphytes, but suggests an extension of simple climate-response models is necessary, before their wider application to lichen epiphyte diversity. [source] Divergence with gene flow between Ponto-Caspian refugia in an anadromous cyprinid Rutilus frisii revealed by multiple gene phylogeographyMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2008PETR KOTLÍK Abstract The Black and Caspian Seas have experienced alternating periods of isolation and interconnection over many Milankovitch climate oscillations and most recently became separated when the meltwater overflow from the Caspian Sea ceased at the end of the last glaciation. Climate-induced habitat changes have indisputably had profound impacts on distribution and demography of aquatic species, yet uncertainties remain about the relative roles of isolation and dispersal in the response of species shared between the Black and Caspian Sea basins. We examined these issues using phylogeographical analysis of an anadromous cyprinid fish Rutilus frisii. Bayesian coalescence analyses of sequence variation at two nuclear and one mitochondrial genes suggest that the Black and Caspian Seas supported separate populations of R. frisii during the last glaciation. Parameter estimates from the fitted isolation-with-migration model showed that their separation was not complete, however, and that the two populations continued to exchange genes in both directions. These analyses also suggested that majority of migrations occurred during the Pleistocene, showing that the variation shared between the Black and Caspian Seas is the result of ancient dispersal along the temporary natural connections between the basins, rather than of incomplete lineage sorting or recent human-mediated dispersal. Gene flow between the refugial populations was therefore an important source of genetic variation, and we suggest that it facilitated the evolutionary response of the populations to changing climate. [source] The impact of the changing climate for accreditation on the individual college or university: Five trends and their implicationsNEW DIRECTIONS FOR HIGHER EDUCATION, Issue 145 2009John W. Bardo In the current environment, presidents and chancellors can expect to have their institutions under nearly continuous scrutiny from regional accrediting bodies. [source] How will plant pathogens adapt to host plant resistance at elevated CO2 under a changing climate?NEW PHYTOLOGIST, Issue 3 2003Sukumar Chakraborty Summary , , To better understand evolution we have studied aggressiveness of the anthracnose pathogen, Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, collected from Stylosanthes scabra pastures between 1978 and 2000 and by inoculating two isolates onto two cultivars over 25 sequential infection cycles at ambient (350 ppm) and twice-ambient atmospheric CO2 in controlled environments. , , Regression analysis of the field population showed that aggressiveness increased towards a resistant cultivar, but not towards a susceptible cultivar, that is no longer grown commercially. , , Here we report for the first time that aggressiveness increased on both cultivars after a few initial infection cycles at twice-ambient CO2 as isolates adapted to combat enhanced host resistance, while at ambient CO2 this increased steadily for most cycles as both cultivars selected for increased aggressiveness. Genetic fingerprint and karyotype of isolates changed for some CO2 -cultivar combinations, but these were not related to changed aggressiveness. , , At 700 ppm fecundity increased for both isolates, and this increased population size, in combination with a conducive microclimate for anthracnose from an enlarged plant canopy under elevated CO2, could accelerate pathogen evolution. [source] The effect of transient conditions on an equilibrium permafrost-climate modelPERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES, Issue 1 2007Dan Riseborough Abstract Equilibrium permafrost models assume a stationary temperature and snow-cover climate. With a variable or changing climate, short-term energy imbalances between the active layer and permafrost result in transient departures from the equilibrium condition. This study examines the effects of such variability on an equilibrium permafrost-climate model, the temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) model. Comparisons between numerical results and temperatures predicted by the TTOP-model suggest that stationary inter-annual variability introduces an error in the top-of-permafrost temperature obtained with the equilibrium model that is higher where permafrost temperature is close to 0°C, although multi-year averaging reduces the error to 0.1°C or less. In the presence of a warming trend, the equilibrium model prediction tracked the changing top-of-permafrost temperature until permafrost temperatures reached 0°C, after which the equilibrium model produced significant errors. Errors up to 1°C were due to the temperature gradient through the developing talik, and depended on the warming rate, and the thickness of the talik. For all warming rates, the error was largest when the permafrost table was about 4,m below the surface, with the error declining as the permafrost table fell. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibilityTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 646 2010Valerio Lucarini Abstract We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect that for a large range of values of the solar constant the realization of snowball or of regular climate conditions depends on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine monotonically increases with decreasing solar constant in present climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in snowball conditions. Instead, entropy production is monotonically increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about four times larger in the warm branch than in the corresponding cold state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system, measured as the fraction of excess entropy production due to irreversible heat transport processes, is much higher in the warm climate conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the cold climate regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the warm climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the climate transitions at the tipping points based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the second law of thermodynamics for auditing climate models and outline a set of parametrizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate-complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Flash flood forecasting: What are the limits of predictability?THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 622 2007C. G. Collier Abstract Flash floods may occur suddenly and be accompanied by other hazards such as landslides, mud flows, damage to infrastructure and even death. In the UK such events are comparatively rare occurring on average only once or twice per year. Warning systems must depend upon the accurate real-time provision of rainfall information, high-resolution numerical weather forecasts and the operation of hydrological model systems in addition to forecast delivery procedures not discussed in this paper. In this paper we review how flash floods are forecast considering the limitations and uncertainty involved in both the meteorological and hydrological aspects of forecasting systems. Data assimilation and the use of ensembles are both key elements across disciplines. Assessing the susceptibility of river catchments to extreme flooding is considered, and statistical methods of estimating the likelihood of extreme rainfall and floods within a changing climate are examined. Ways of constraining flash flood forecasts are noted as one way to improve forecast performance in the future. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Some critical issues in environmental physiology of grapevines: future challenges and current limitationsAUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF GRAPE AND WINE RESEARCH, Issue 2010H.R. SCHULTZ Abstract The rapidly increasing world population and the scarcity of suitable land for agricultural food production together with a changing climate will ultimately put pressure on grape-producing areas for the use of land and the input of resources. For most grape-producing areas, the predicted developments in climate will be identical to becoming more marginal for quality production and/or to be forced to improve resource management. This will have a pronounced impact on grapevine physiology, biochemistry and ultimately production methods. Research in the entire area of stress physiology, from the gene to the whole plant and vineyard level (including soils) will need to be expanded to aid in the mitigation of arising problems. In this review, we elaborate on some key issues in environmental stress physiology such as efficient water use to illustrate some of the challenges, current limitations and future possibilities of certain experimental techniques and/or data interpretations. Key regulatory mechanisms in the control of stomatal conductance are treated in some detail and several future research directions are outlined. Diverse physiological aspects such as the functional role of aquaporins, the importance of mesophyll conductance in leaf physiology, night-time water use and respiration under environmental constraints are discussed. New developments for improved resource management (mainly water) such as the use of remote sensing and thermal imagery technologies are also reviewed. Specific cases where our experimental systems are limited or where research has been largely discontinued (i.e. stomatal patchiness) are treated and some promising new developments, such as the use of coupled structural functional models to assess for environmental stress effects on a whole-plant or canopy level are outlined. Finally, the status quo and research challenges around the ,CO2 -problem' are presented, an area which is highly significant for the study of ,the future' of the grape and wine industry, but where substantial financial commitment is needed. [source] Climate change and freshwater biodiversity: detected patterns, future trends and adaptations in northern regionsBIOLOGICAL REVIEWS, Issue 1 2009Jani Heino Abstract Current rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been rapid at the levels of ecosystems, communities, and species. Most research on climate change effects on biodiversity has concentrated on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have already been detected in response to climate change. The studies that have considered organisms in the freshwater realm have also shown that freshwater biodiversity is highly vulnerable to climate change, with extinction rates and extirpations of freshwater species matching or exceeding those suggested for better-known terrestrial taxa. There is some evidence that freshwater species have exhibited range shifts in response to climate change in the last millennia, centuries, and decades. However, the effects are typically species-specific, with cold-water organisms being generally negatively affected and warm-water organisms positively affected. However, detected range shifts are based on findings from a relatively low number of taxonomic groups, samples from few freshwater ecosystems, and few regions. The lack of a wider knowledge hinders predictions of the responses of much of freshwater biodiversity to climate change and other major anthropogenic stressors. Due to the lack of detailed distributional information for most freshwater taxonomic groups and the absence of distribution-climate models, future studies should aim at furthering our knowledge about these aspects of the ecology of freshwater organisms. Such information is not only important with regard to the basic ecological issue of predicting the responses of freshwater species to climate variables, but also when assessing the applied issue of the capacity of protected areas to accommodate future changes in the distributions of freshwater species. This is a huge challenge, because most current protected areas have not been delineated based on the requirements of freshwater organisms. Thus, the requirements of freshwater organisms should be taken into account in the future delineation of protected areas and in the estimation of the degree to which protected areas accommodate freshwater biodiversity in the changing climate and associated environmental changes. [source] Body size-dependent responses of a marine fish assemblage to climate change and fishing over a century-long scaleGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2010MARTIN J. GENNER Abstract Commercial fishing and climate change have influenced the composition of marine fish assemblages worldwide, but we require a better understanding of their relative influence on long-term changes in species abundance and body-size distributions. In this study, we investigated long-term (1911,2007) variability within a demersal fish assemblage in the western English Channel. The region has been subject to commercial fisheries throughout most of the past century, and has undergone interannual changes in sea temperature of over 2.0 °C. We focussed on a core 30 species that comprised 99% of total individuals sampled in the assemblage. Analyses showed that temporal trends in the abundance of smaller multispecies size classes followed thermal regime changes, but that there were persistent declines in abundance of larger size classes. Consistent with these results, larger-growing individual species had the greatest declines in body size, and the most constant declines in abundance, while abundance changes of smaller-growing species were more closely linked to preceding sea temperatures. Together these analyses are suggestive of dichotomous size-dependent responses of species to long-term climate change and commercial fishing over a century scale. Small species had rapid responses to the prevailing thermal environment, suggesting their life history traits predisposed populations to respond quickly to changing climates. Larger species declined in abundance and size, reflecting expectations from sustained size-selective overharvesting. These results demonstrate the importance of considering species traits when developing indicators of human and climatic impacts on marine fauna. [source] Meeting the ecological challenges of agricultural change: editors' introductionJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2003S. J. Ormerod Summary 1The global need for agricultural production has never been greater. Nor has it ever been more complex due to the needs to balance global food security, optimum production, technological innovation, the preservation of environmental functions and the protection of biodiversity. The role of ecologists in finding this balance is pivotal. 2In support of this role, ecologists now have very substantial experience of agricultural systems. We can understand, recognize and sometimes predict, at least qualitatively, the effects of pesticide applications, fertilizer use, drainage, crop choices and habitat modifications on farmland organisms, agro-ecosystems or other ecosystems influenced by agricultural land. 3In instances of greater uncertainty, for example under changing climates, where environmental stresses on ecosystems are interactive, and where ecosystem management or restoration must adapt to new technologies, the investigative skills and experience of ecologists are even more crucial in problem solving. 4There are, nevertheless, contrasting examples of good and bad practice in knowledge-transfer between ecologists and the communities who need our knowledge. The UK farm-scale evaluations of genetically modified crops, for example, involved ecologists at all stages from design and data collection to advocating policy. By contrast, many European agri-environment projects appear to have been developed and evaluated with only modest ecological advice. We advocate fuller involvement of ecologists in the development and evaluation of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy. 5This special profile of seven agriculturally related papers illustrates effectively the array of approaches used by applied ecologists in addressing agricultural questions: modelling, meta-analysis, surveys, transect studies, classical experiments, seedbank assays and process studies based on modern ecological methods. With over 20% of recent papers in the Journal of Applied Ecology reflecting agricultural issues, agro-ecology continues to represent one of the pre-eminent areas of applied ecology that is unlikely to diminish in importance. 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