|
| ||
|
|
||
Central England Temperature (central + england_temperature)
Selected AbstractsUncertainties in early Central England temperaturesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2010David E. Parker Abstract Uncertainties in historical climate records constrain our understanding of natural variability of climate, but estimation of these uncertainties enables us to place recent climate events and extremes into a realistic historical perspective. Uncertainties in Central England temperature (CET) since 1878 have already been estimated; here we estimate uncertainties back to the start of the record in 1659, using Manley's publications and more recently developed techniques for estimating spatial sampling errors. Estimated monthly standard errors are of the order of 0.5 °C up to the 1720s, but 0.3 °C subsequently when more observing sites were used. Corresponding annual standard errors are up to nearly 0.4 °C in the earliest years but around 0.15 °C after the 1720s. Daily standard errors from 1772, when the daily series begins, up to 1877 are of the order of 1 °C because only a single site was used at any one time. Inter-diurnal variability in the daily CET record appears greater before 1878 than subsequently, partly because the sites were in the Midlands or southern England where day-to-day temperature variability exceeds that in the Lancashire part of Manley's CET. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Uncertainties in central England temperature 1878,2003 and some improvements to the maximum and minimum seriesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 9 2005David Parker Abstract We assess the random and systematic uncertainties affecting the central England temperature (CET) record since 1878 on daily, monthly and annual time scales. The largest contribution to uncertainty in CET on all these time scales arises from areal sampling, followed for annual and monthly CET by thermometer calibration. For the daily series, random thermometer precision and screen errors are the second largest source of uncertainty. Annual CETs are least uncertain, whereas daily CETs are most uncertain. Despite the uncertainties in annual mean CET, the trend of 0.077 °C per decade since 1900 is significant at the 1% level. In an additional investigation, we detect biases in the published series of central England maximum and minimum temperatures, and implement systematic adjustments of up to ±0.2 °C to the values up to 1921 and up to ±0.1 °C to the values since 1980. These adjustments are of opposite sign in maximum and minimum temperature, so they do not affect mean CET, but they improve the homogeneity of the diurnal temperature range, which then shows little trend before 1980 and a reduced rising trend thereafter. The uncertainties in maximum and minimum temperature make the data inadequate for the task of establishing the magnitude of the recent increase of diurnal range. © Crown Copyright 2005. Reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Mediated and direct effects of the North Atlantic Ocean on winter temperatures in northwest EuropeINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 3 2003Martina M. Junge Abstract This study has used a multiple regression model to quantify the importance of wintertime mean North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for explaining (simultaneous) variations in wintertime mean temperatures in northwestern Europe. Although wintertime temperature variations are primarily determined by atmospheric flow patterns, it has been speculated that North Atlantic SSTs might also provide some additional information. To test this hypothesis, we have attempted to explain 1900,93 variations in wintertime mean central England temperature (CET) by using multiple regression with contemporaneous winter mean North Atlantic sea-level pressures (SLPs) and SSTs as explanatory variables. With no SST information, the leading SLP patterns (including the North Atlantic oscillation) explain 63% of the total variance in winter mean CET; however, SSTs alone are capable of explaining only 16% of the variance in winter mean CET. Much of the SST effect is ,indirect' in that it supplies no more significant information than already contained in the mean SLP; e.g. both SLP and SST together can only explain 68% of the variance. However, there is a small (5% variance) direct effect due to SST that is not mediated by mean SLP, which has a spatial pattern resembling the Newfoundland SST pattern identified by Ratcliffe and Murray (1970. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 96: 226,246). In predictive mode, however, using explanatory variables from preceding seasons, SSTs contain more information than SLP factors. On longer time scales, the variance explained by contemporaneous SST increases, but the SLP explanatory variables still provide a better model than the SST variables. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Modelling trends in central England temperaturesJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 1 2003David I. Harvey Abstract Trends are extracted from the central England temperature (CET) data available from 1723, using both annual and seasonal averages. Attention is focused on fitting non-parametric trends and it is found that, while there is no compelling evidence of a trend increase in the CET, there have been three periods of cooling, stability, and warming, roughly associated with the beginning and the end of the Industrial Revolution. There does appear to have been an upward shift in trend spring temperatures, but forecasting of current trends is hazardous because of the statistical uncertainty surrounding them. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Anthropogenic warming of central England temperatureATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 4 2006David J. Karoly Abstract The variability of central England temperature (CET) at inter annual, decadal and 50-year time scales, as simulated by the HadCM3 model, agrees well with its observed variability over the period 1700,1900. The observed warming in annual-mean CET of about 1.0 °C since 1950 is very unlikely to be due to natural climate variations and is consistent with the response to anthropogenic (ANT) forcing, demonstrating a significant human influence on this warming. © Crown Copyright 2006. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] An application of fractional integration to a long temperature seriesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 14 2003L. A. Gil-Alana Abstract Some recently proposed techniques of fractional integration are applied to a long UK temperature series. The tests are valid under general forms of serial correlation and do not require estimation of the fractional differencing parameter. The results show that central England temperatures have increased about 0.23 °C per 100 years in recent history. Attempting to summarize the conclusions for each of the months, we are left with the impression that the highest increase has occurred during the months from October to March. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Instrumental pressure observations and atmospheric circulation from the 17th and 18th centuries: London and ParisINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 3 2001V.C. Slonosky Abstract Daily pressure observations recorded by William Derham (1657,1735) at Upminster, Essex (near London), from 1697 to 1706 and 1708 have been corrected, converted to modern units and the Gregorian calendar, and adjusted for homogeneity. These pressure readings have been compared with previously published contemporary observations from Paris, and the two sets of early instrumental data used to calculate a daily series of the pressure difference between Paris and London. Frequency analysis of the daily series reveals that reversals of the south,north pressure gradient and easterly winds were more common from 1697 to 1708 than during the 1990s. Monthly mean values of Paris,London pressure differences have been compared with previously published monthly mean reconstructed surface pressure maps and to a reconstructed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. There is a good agreement between the strength and direction of monthly mean flow between London and Paris estimated from the circulation maps and the sign and magnitude of the Paris,London westerly flow index, but the correlation between the Paris,London index, known to be a good proxy for European zonal circulation, and the reconstructed NAO index, is low (0.2). Correlations between the monthly mean Paris,London zonal circulation index and central England temperatures suggest a strong relationship during winter and late summer from 1697 to 1708. The meticulous daily instrumental observations and the monthly and seasonal climate descriptions of Derham, his collection of instrumental observations and climatic descriptions from contemporary observers throughout Europe, and his early theories on the causes of climate change make his publications a valuable source of information for studies on climate during the early instrumental period. It is hoped that more of Derham's papers related to weather and climate may eventually come to light. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Modelling trends in central England temperaturesJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 1 2003David I. Harvey Abstract Trends are extracted from the central England temperature (CET) data available from 1723, using both annual and seasonal averages. Attention is focused on fitting non-parametric trends and it is found that, while there is no compelling evidence of a trend increase in the CET, there have been three periods of cooling, stability, and warming, roughly associated with the beginning and the end of the Industrial Revolution. There does appear to have been an upward shift in trend spring temperatures, but forecasting of current trends is hazardous because of the statistical uncertainty surrounding them. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||