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Central England (central + england)
Terms modified by Central England Selected AbstractsChanges in variance and correlation of soil properties with scale and location: analysis using an adapted maximal overlap discrete wavelet transformEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE, Issue 4 2001R. M. Lark Summary The magnitude of variation in soil properties can change from place to place, and this lack of stationarity can preclude conventional geostatistical and spectral analysis. In contrast, wavelets and their scaling functions, which take non-zero values only over short intervals and are therefore local, enable us to handle such variation. Wavelets can be used to analyse scale-dependence and spatial changes in the correlation of two variables where the linear model of coregionalization is inadmissible. We have adapted wavelet methods to analyse soil properties with non-stationary variation and covariation in fairly small sets of data, such as we can expect in soil survey, and we have applied them to measurements of pH and the contents of clay and calcium carbonate on a 3-km transect in Central England. Places on the transect where significant changes in the variance of the soil properties occur were identified. The scale-dependence of the correlations of soil properties was investigated by calculating wavelet correlations for each spatial scale. We identified where the covariance of the properties appeared to change and then computed the wavelet correlations on each side of the change point and compared them. The correlation of topsoil and subsoil clay content was found to be uniform along the transect at one important scale, although there were significant changes in the variance. In contrast, carbonate content and pH of the topsoil were correlated only in parts of the transect. [source] Cyclical long-range dependence and the warming effect in a long temperature time seriesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2008L. A. Gil-Alana Abstract In this paper, we propose a new approach for modelling a long temperature time series, using fractional cyclical integration. This model is based on the observation that the estimated spectrum of the series (the average annual temperature in Central England, 1659,2001) has its highest value at a frequency which is not zero, thus suggesting the existence of cycles at other frequencies. The results based on a fractional cyclical model show that there is a significant warming effect throughout the sample of about 0.22 °C/century. However, if we concentrate exclusively on the data corresponding to the 20th century that value increases to 0.64%. Moreover, the results in the paper show that a fractionally cyclically integrated model can be a competing alternative to other approaches based on fractional integration at the zero frequency. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: a hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generatorAPPLIED STOCHASTIC MODELS IN BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY, Issue 2 2006Sergio Pezzulli Abstract In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The Solihull Approach Resource Pack: A Partnership Between Solihull Primary Care Trust and The University of Central England in BirminghamCHILD AND ADOLESCENT MENTAL HEALTH, Issue 1 2004Dominique Naddeo First page of article [source] Hornton Stone: battlefields, buildings and Jurassic seasGEOLOGY TODAY, Issue 4 2009Jonathan D. Radley The Hornton Stone is an unusually pure ooidal ironstone of the Lower Jurassic Marlstone Rock Formation, cropping out on the Edge Hill escarpment and adjacent ironstone plateau in central England. The stone has been quarried for building and ornamental purposes since Medieval times, and more recently as a source of iron ore. Local quarries and buildings provide excellent opportunities to appreciate its fossil content, sedimentary structures and origin. [source] Use of caesium-137 data to evaluate SHETRAN simulated long-term erosion patterns in arable landsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 10 2004Y. Norouzi Banis Abstract The caesium-137 method of quantifying soil erosion is used to provide field data for validating the capability of the SHETRAN modelling system for predicting long-term (30-year) erosion rates and their spatial variability. Simulations were carried out for two arable farm sites (area 3,5 ha) in central England for which average annual erosion rates of 6·5 and 10·4 t ha,1 year,1 had already been determined using caesium-137 measurements. These rates were compared with a range of simulated values representing the uncertainty in model output derived from uncertainty in the evaluation of model parameters. A successful validation was achieved in that the simulation range contained the measured rate at both sites, whereas the spatial variability was reproduced excellently at one site and partially at the other. The results indicate that, as the caesium-137 technique measures the erosion caused by all the processes acting at a site, it is relevant to hydrologically based models such as SHETRAN only if erosion by wind, agricultural activities and other processes not represented in the model are insignificant. The results also indicate a need to reduce the uncertainty in model parameter evaluation. More generally, the caesium-137 technique is shown to provide field data that improve the severity of the validation procedure (accounting for internal as well as outlet conditions) and that add spatial variability to magnitude as a condition for identifying unrealistic parameter sets when seeking to reduce simulation uncertainty. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A comparative study of the magnitude, frequency and distribution of intense rainfall in the United KingdomINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2010John C. Rodda Abstract During the 1960s, a study was made of the magnitude, frequency and distribution of intense rainfall over the United Kingdom, employing data from more than 120 daily read rain gauges covering the period 1911 to 1960. Using the same methodology, that study was recently updated utilizing data for the period 1961 to 2006 for the same gauges, or from those nearby. This paper describes the techniques applied to ensure consistency of data and statistical modelling. It presents a comparison of patterns of extreme rainfalls for the two periods and discusses the changes that have taken place. Most noticeably, increases up to 20% have occurred in the north-west of the country and in parts of East Anglia. There have also been changes in other areas, including decreases of the same magnitude over central England. The implications of these changes are considered. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Hemeroby, urbanity and ruderality: bioindicators of disturbance and human impactJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2002M. O. Hill Summary 1Species vary according to whether they benefit from or are harmed by disturbance and intensive human activity. This variation can be quantified by indices of disturbance and unnaturalness. 2An urban flora was characterized by comparing quadrat data from cities with several large data sets from the countryside. Existing scales of species response to disturbance and unnaturalness, ruderality (a plant's ability to survive in disturbed conditions) and hemeroby (a measure of human impact) were contrasted with derived scales based on the number of associated annuals and aliens and with ,urbanity', defined as the proportion of urban land in the vicinity of each quadrat. 3Species presence data were available from 26 710 quadrats distributed through Great Britain, with urban sites only in central England. Satellite imagery was used to measure the proportion of urban land cover in the vicinity of each quadrat; 2595 quadrats were located in 1-km squares having at least 40% cover of urban land. 4The 20 species having highest urbanity were all alien to Britain, comprising 12 neophytes and eight archaeophytes. 5Of the 20 most frequent species in quadrats situated in 1-km squares with at least 40% urban land cover, 18 were natives. The two exceptions were Artemisia vulgaris , an archaeophyte, and Senecio squalidus , a neophyte. 6Both ruderal and hemerobic species, as usually defined, include many non-urban arable species. The hemeroby scale of Kowarik (1990 ), designed for Berlin, does not work well in Britain. 7The proportion of associated annuals (annuality) and the proportion of associated neophytes (alien richness or xenicity) can be developed into good indices. The annuality scale is very well defined because annuals tend to occur with other annuals. Plants with high annuality are mostly arable weeds. 8Urban specialists in central England are, with a few exceptions, character-species of the phytosociological classes Artemisietea , Galio-Urticetea and Stellarietea . Most of them have numerous non-urban associates and they do not form a very well defined group. They have intermediate levels of annuality combined with relatively high levels of xenicity. 9While it is possible to develop indices of hemeroby, urbanity and ruderality, these concepts are relatively complicated. Annuality and xenicity are simpler measures that can complement Ellenberg values, but definitive values for Great Britain would require additional data from southern England. [source] Development and validation of a simulation model for blowfly strike of sheepMEDICAL AND VETERINARY ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 4 2002R. Wall Abstract A comprehensive simulation model for sheep blowfly strike due to Lucilia sericata (Meigen) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), which builds on previously published versions but also incorporates important new empirical data, is used to explain patterns of lamb and ewe strike recorded on 370 farms in south-west, south-east and central England and Wales. The model is able to explain a significant percentage of the variance in lamb strike incidence in all four regions, and ewe strike in three of the four regions. The model is able to predict the start of seasonal blowfly strike within one week in three of the four regions for both ewes and lambs, and within 3 weeks in the fourth region. It is concluded that the accuracy of the model will allow it to be used to assess the likely efficacy of new control techniques and the effects of changes in existing husbandry practices on strike incidence. The model could also be used to give sheep farmers advance warning of approaching strike problems. However, the ability to forecast future strike patterns is dependent on the accuracy of the weather projections; the more long-term the forecast, the more approximate the prediction is likely to be. When applied on a regional basis, model forecasts indicate expected average patterns of strike incidence and may not therefore be appropriate for individual farmers whose husbandry practices differ substantially from the average. [source] Ensemble simulations of the cold European winter of 2005-2006THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 636 2008A. A. Scaife Abstract There is only limited understanding of the processes driving year-to-year variability in European winter climate and the skill of seasonal forecasts for Europe in winter is generally low. The winter of 2005-2006 is a useful case-study because it was the coldest winter in large parts of western Europe for over a decade, and the coldest in central England since 1995-1996. Here, we present results of experiments with a range of general circulation models to investigate the importance of both the Atlantic Ocean and stratospheric circulation in producing the unusually cold winter of 2005-2006. We use models with different combinations of horizontal and stratospheric vertical resolution, allowing the sensitivity of the response to model formulation to be tested. The response to Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies is improved in a more recent model with higher horizontal resolution. The results show that both Atlantic SSTs and the January 2006 sudden stratospheric warming are likely to have contributed to the cold 2005-2006 European winter. © Crown Copyright 2008. Reproduced with the permission of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. [source] | |||||||||||||