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Selected AbstractsTESTING THE QUALITY OF A CARRIER: A FIELD EXPERIMENT ON LIZARD SIGNALERSEVOLUTION, Issue 3 2009Mats Olsson In the Australian painted dragon lizard (Ctenophorus pictus), males occur in two different morphs with respect to gular color, with or without a yellow bib. Males without a bib lost within-clutch paternity significantly more often to rivals than bibbed males. Thus, it appears that bibs identify some phenotypic advantage linked to competitive ability. To test whether this could be related to whole-organism capacity to withstand an increased workload (due to better health and vigor, or evolved differences in self-maintenance), we implanted males with a lead pellet (loaded), Styrofoam pellet (controls), or sham-operated males without implants (shams), and compared male categories with respect to how they maintained body mass during the mating season. Somewhat unexpectedly, bibbed males consistently lost more body weight across all treatments and controls, although we could not verify that this translated into higher mortality in this short-lived animal (about 80% survive for one year only). However, bibbed males may invest more into "mating success" than nonbibbed males, which agrees with our experimental results and paternity data. [source] JUST SAY NO TO WALL STREET: PUTTING A STOP TO THE EARNINGS GAMEJOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 4 2002Joseph Fuller CEOs are in a bind with Wall Street. Managers up and down the hierarchy work hard at putting together plans and budgets for the next year only to discover that the bottom line falls far short of Wall Street's expectations. CEOs and CFOs are therefore left in a difficult situation; they can stretch to try to meet Wall Street's projections or prepare to suffer the consequences if they fail. All too often, top managers react by suggesting or even mandating that middle- and lower-level managers redo their forecasts and budgets to get them in line with external expectations. In some cases, managers simply acquiesce to increasingly unrealistic analyst forecasts and adopt them as the basis for setting organizational goals and developing internal budgets. But either approach sets up the firm and its managers for failure if external expectations are impossible to meet. Using the recent experiences of Enron and Nortel, the authors illustrate the dangers of conforming to market pressures for unrealistic growth targets. They emphasize that an overvalued stock, by encouraging overpriced acquisitions and other value-destroying forms of overinvestment, can be as damaging to the long-run health of a company as an undervalued stock. Ending the "expectations game" requires that CEOs reclaim the initiative in setting expectations and forecasts so that stocks can trade at close to their intrinsic value. Managers must make their organizations more transparent to investors; they must promise only those results they have a legitimate prospect of delivering and be willing to inform the market when they believe their stock to be overvalued. [source] A model to predict survival at one month, one year, and five years after liver transplantation based on pretransplant clinical characteristicsLIVER TRANSPLANTATION, Issue 5 2003Paul J. Thuluvath MD Reliable models that could predict outcome of liver transplantation (LT) may guide physicians to advise their patients of immediate and late survival chances and may help them to optimize organ use. The objective of this study was to develop user-friendly models to predict short and long-term mortality after LT in adults based on pre-LT recipient characteristics. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) transplant registry (n = 38,876) from 1987 to 2001 was used to develop and validate the model. Two thirds of patients were randomized to develop the model (the modeling group), and the remaining third was randomized to cross-validate (the cross-validation group) it. Three separate models, using multivariate logistic regression analysis, were created and validated to predict survival at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years. Using the total severity scores of patients in the modeling group, a predictive model then was created, and the predicted probability of death as a function of total score then was compared in the cross-validation group. The independent variables that were found to be very significant for 1 month and 1 year survival were age, body mass index (BMI), UNOS status 1, etiology, serum bilirubin (for 1 month and 1 year only), creatinine, and race (only for 5 years). The actual deaths in the cross-validation group followed very closely the predicted survival graph. The chi-squared goodness-of-fit test confirmed that the model could predict mortality reliably at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years. We have developed and validated user-friendly models that could reliably predict short-term and long-term survival after LT. [source] Liver transplantation for progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis: Clinical and histopathological findings, outcome and impact on growthPEDIATRIC TRANSPLANTATION, Issue 6 2007Sema Aydogdu Abstract:, In this study, we analyze the demographic features, clinical and histopathological findings in patients who underwent liver transplantation for progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis. We also analyze outcome and impact of liver transplantation on growth and bone mineral content. Most of the patients were presented with jaundice mainly beginning within the first six months. At the time of initial admission; eight patients had short stature (height SD score <2), and four patients had weight SD score <2. Liver transplantation were performed at the age of 43.2 ± 27 months (range 9 to 96 mfonths), 6.5 ± 3.5 months later after the first admission. Infection, surgical complications and osmotic diarrhea associated with severe metabolic acidosis were noted in 41.4%, 16.6% and 33.3%, respectively. One patient developed posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder. Overall; 1 year graft and patient survival was 69.2% and 75%, respectively. At the end of the 1st year only 2 patients had height SD score <2. Linear regression of height gain against increase in total body BMD measured at the time of transplantation and 1 year after liver transplantation gave a coefficient r = 0.588 (p = 0.074). No correlation was found between the height gain and age and PELD score at time of transplantation, and no difference was noted between the sexes and donor type. Liver transplantation is effective treatment modality with good outcome and little morbidity, and increases the growth acceleration in patients with PFIC associated with cirrhosis. [source] Bankruptcy prediction by generalized additive modelsAPPLIED STOCHASTIC MODELS IN BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY, Issue 2 2007Daniel Berg Abstract We compare several accounting-based models for bankruptcy prediction. The models are developed and tested on large data sets containing annual financial statements for Norwegian limited liability firms. Out-of-sample and out-of-time validation shows that generalized additive models significantly outperform popular models like linear discriminant analysis, generalized linear models and neural networks at all levels of risk. Further, important issues like default horizon and performance depreciation are examined. We clearly see a performance depreciation as the default horizon is increased and as time goes by. Finally a multi-year model, developed on all available data from three consecutive years, is compared with a one-year model, developed on data from the most recent year only. The multi-year model exhibits a desirable robustness to yearly fluctuations that is not present in the one-year model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Economic aspects of diabetic foot care in a multidisciplinary setting: a reviewDIABETES/METABOLISM: RESEARCH AND REVIEWS, Issue 5 2007Giovanni A. Matricali Abstract Background To evaluate the economic aspects of diabetic foot care in a multidisciplinary setting. Method A review of the English language literature, published from 1966 to November 2005. Results The results of available studies on the cost-of-illness of diabetic foot problems are difficult to compare. Nevertheless trends concerning excess of costs, protraction in time of costs, positive correlation to severity of ulcer and/or peripheral vascular disease, contribution of in-hospital stay and length of stay, and the patient's own contribution to total costs, are obvious. Only a few cost-effectiveness and cost-utility studies are available. Most use a Markov based model to predict outcome and show an acceptable result on long-term. Conclusions Diabetic foot problems are frequent and are associated with high costs. A multidisciplinary approach to diabetic foot problems has proved to be cost saving with regard to cost of treatment itself. Nevertheless, it remained unclear if these savings could offset the overall costs involved in implementing this kind of approach. The few studies that address this issue specifically all show an acceptable cost-effectiveness, but often the profit will be evident after some years only, because long-term costs are involved. Based on these data, policymakers should foresee sufficient reimbursement for preventive and early curative measures, and not only for ,salvage manoeuvres'. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Cost-effectiveness analysis of triple test in second-trimester maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome: an experience from Taiwan with decreasing birth rate but increasing population of old pregnant womenJOURNAL OF EVALUATION IN CLINICAL PRACTICE, Issue 2 2008Hsiao-Lin Hwa PhD Objectives, We intended to assess the cost-effectiveness of adding unconjugated oestriol (uE3) in maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome in Taiwan, where there is a decreasing birth rate but an increasing trend of old women having pregnancies. Methods, We used logistic regressions to estimate the risk of Down's syndrome with maternal age and different combinations of biomarkers. Cost-effectiveness analysis was presented in terms of the average and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Sensitivity analyses with different parameters were performed. Results, Given a cut-off point of 1:270 for the confirmation of Down's syndrome with amniocentesis, the average cost per case averted for maternal age above 35 years only, double test [alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG)] and triple test (AFP, hCG and uE3) were estimated as $14 561, $42 367 and $37 424. The additional costs per case averted for double test and triple test (compared with maternal age above 35 years) were $135 950 and $77 394, respectively. The additional cost per case averted for triple test was $15 199 compared with double test. Conclusions, The performance of triple test is not only more effective in detecting Down's syndrome cases but also more cost-effective than double test in this study. [source] Reconstructing and predicting the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Greece: increasing trends of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma despite the decline in incidence of HCV infectionJOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS, Issue 4 2004V. Sypsa Summary., In this study, a comprehensive methodology for modelling the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic is proposed to predict the future disease burden and assess whether the recent decline in the incidence of HCV may affect the future occurrence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases. Using the prevalence of HCV, the distribution of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients within the various transmission groups and their infection-onset times, it was possible to reconstruct the incident infections per year in the past that progressed to CHC in Greece. The natural history of the disease was simulated in subcohorts of newly infected subjects using transition probabilities derived either empirically between fibrosis stages 0,4 or from literature review. Annual estimates of the incidence and prevalence of CHC by fibrosis stage, HCC and mortality in Greece were obtained up to 2030. HCV incidence peaked in the late 1980s at five new infections/10 000 person-years. Under the assumption of 20,100% decline in HCV incidence after 1990, the cumulative number of incident cirrhosis and HCC cases from 2002,2030 was projected to be lower by 9.6,48.2% and 5.9,29.5%, respectively, than that estimated under the assumption of no decline. However, the prevalent cirrhotic/HCC cases and HCV-related deaths are predicted to decline in the next 30 years only under the assumption of complete elimination of new HCV infections after 1990. Despite the progress in the reduction of HCV transmission, primary prevention does not seem adequate to reverse the rise in the incidence of cirrhosis and HCC. [source] A high price to pay for self-neglectPRACTICAL DIABETES INTERNATIONAL (INCORPORATING CARDIABETES), Issue 8 2000JM Steel Associate Specialist Abstract An exceptionally poorly controlled non-compliant young woman with Type 2 had numerous spontaneous abortions and an abnormal stillborn baby. She developed severe complications of diabetes from which she died at the age of 32 years only seven years after diagnosis. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Success Factors in New Ventures: A Meta-analysis,THE JOURNAL OF PRODUCT INNOVATION MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2008Michael Song Technology entrepreneurship is key to economic development. New technology ventures (NTVs) can have positive effects on employment and could rejuvenate industries with disruptive technologies. However, NTVs have a limited survival rate. In our most recent empirical study of 11,259 NTVs established between 1991 and 2000 in the United States, we found that after four years only 36 percent, or 4,062, of companies with more than five full-time employees, had survived. After five years, the survival rate fell to 21.9 percent, leaving only 2,471 firms still in operation with more than five full-time employees. Thus, it is important to examine how new technology ventures can better survive. In the academic literature, a number of studies focus on success factors for NTVs. Unfortunately, empirical results are often controversial and fragmented. To get a more integrated picture of what factors lead to the success or failure of new technology ventures, we conducted a meta-analysis to examine the success factors in NTVs. We culled the academic literature to collect data from existing empirical studies. Using Pearson correlations as effect size statistics, we conducted a meta-analysis to analyze the findings of 31 studies and identified the 24 most widely researched success factors for NTVs. After correcting for artifacts and sample size effects, we found that among the 24 possible success factors identified in the literature, 8 are homogeneous significant success factors for NTVs (i.e., they are homogeneous positive significant metafactors that are correlated to venture performance): (1) supply chain integration; (2) market scope; (3) firm age; (4) size of founding team; (5) financial resources; (6) founders' marketing experience; (7) founders' industry experience; and (8) existence of patent protection. Of the original 24 success factors, 5 were not significant: (1) founders' research and development (R&D) experience; (2) founders' experience with start-ups; (3) environmental dynamism; (4) environmental heterogeneity; and (5) competition intensity. The remaining 11 success factors are heterogeneous. For those heterogeneous success factors, we conducted a moderator analysis. Of this set, three appeared to be success factors, and two were failure factors for subgroups within the NTVs' population. To facilitate the development of a body of knowledge in technology entrepreneurship, this study also identifies high-quality measurement scales for future research. The article concludes with future research directions. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||