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Water Resources Planning (water + resources_planning)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Engineering	75%

Selected Abstracts

A Streamflow Forecasting Framework using Multiple Climate and Hydrological Models,

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 4 2009
Paul J. Block
Abstract:, Water resources planning and management efficacy is subject to capturing inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs and models. Streamflow forecasts, critical in reservoir operation and water allocation decision making, fundamentally contain uncertainties arising from assumed initial conditions, model structure, and modeled processes. Accounting for these propagating uncertainties remains a formidable challenge. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting skill and hydrological modeling serve as an impetus for further pursuing models and model combinations capable of delivering improved streamflow forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The framework presented here proposes integration and offline coupling of global climate models (GCMs), multiple regional climate models, and numerous water balance models to improve streamflow forecasting through generation of ensemble forecasts. For demonstration purposes, the framework is imposed on the Jaguaribe basin in northeastern Brazil for a hindcast of 1974-1996 monthly streamflow. The ECHAM 4.5 and the NCEP/MRF9 GCMs and regional models, including dynamical and statistical models, are integrated with the ABCD and Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure water balance models. Precipitation hindcasts from the GCMs are downscaled via the regional models and fed into the water balance models, producing streamflow hindcasts. Multi-model ensemble combination techniques include pooling, linear regression weighting, and a kernel density estimator to evaluate streamflow hindcasts; the latter technique exhibits superior skill compared with any single coupled model ensemble hindcast. [source]

A multimodel assessment of future climatological droughts in the United Kingdom,

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 14 2009
Jean-Philippe Vidal
Abstract This paper presents a detailed assessment of future rainfall drought patterns over the United Kingdom. Previously developed bias-corrected high-resolution gridded precipitation time series are aggregated to the scale relevant for water resources management, in order to provide 21st-century time series for 183 hydrologic areas, as computed by six General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios. The control run data are used as a ,learning time series' to compute the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at four different time scales. SPI values for three 30-year future time slices are computed with respect to these learning time series in order to assess the changes in drought frequency. Multimodel results under the A2 scenario show a dramatic increase in the frequency of short-term extreme drought class for most of the country. A decrease of long-term droughts is expected in Scotland, due to the projected increase in winter precipitation. The analysis for two catchment case studies also showed that changes under the B2 scenario are generally consistent with those of the A2 scenario, with a reduced magnitude in changes. The overall increase with time in the spread of individual GCM results demonstrates the utility of multimodel statistics when assessing the uncertainty in future drought indices to be used in long-term water resources planning. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

A sceptical view of climate change and water resources planning

IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, Issue 3 2001
Geoff Kite
changement du climat; l'aménagement des ressources en eau Abstract Journals, both academic and otherwise, are full of papers describing in detail the impacts of climate change, and a presumed causal link to man's activities, especially the contribution of "greenhouse gases". Despite the abundance of funding to study the hypothesised anthropogenic link, it has yet to be demonstrated, while evidence to the contrary can readily be derived from available data. This brief paper summarises some information that may give cause for thought and suggests that environmental degradation should be of more concern than an imaginary climate change. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Aujourd'hui les journaux (scientifiques inclus) sont pleins d'articles qui décrivent en détail les effets du changement du climat et qui présentent ses effets comme un résultat des activités anthromorphiques, en particulier notre effet sur les "greenhouse gases". Même avec tout l'argent dépensé de ces études, il n'y a aucune évidence pour cette hypothèse. Au contraire, les données suggèrent que le changement actuel du climat est, pour la grande plupart, naturel. Cet article bref donne un point de vue un peu différent qui constate, en bréf, que bien sûr il y a toujours des changements du climat mais pour l'aménagement des ressources en eau il y a, au moins, un problème plus important. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

RATES, RIGHTS, AND REGIONAL PLANNING IN THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 5 2002
Richard Atwater
ABSTRACT: The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California has for more than 70 years shaped the development of an immense urban region. The district's current strategic planning process therefore could have substantial effects on regional water planning and management. The rate restructuring phase of the planning process has produced a multiple component, cost of service based framework. This paper describes that framework as well as some criticisms that have been directed toward it. The rate restructuring was shaped, and for a while stalled, by old disputes among member agencies over rights to water supplied by Metropolitan. That controversy has diverted attention from the resource management implications of the rate structure. This paper presents an alternative future focused approach to regional integrated water resource planning for Southern California based on projections of current trends and anticipation of future events. This discussion raises the question of how regional integrated water resources planning of this sort may proceed, and what role Metropolitan will play in that process. [source]