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Volatility
Kinds of Volatility Terms modified by Volatility Selected AbstractsSTOCK RETURNS, ASYMMETRIC VOLATILITY, RISK AVERSION, AND BUSINESS CYCLE: SOME NEW EVIDENCEECONOMIC INQUIRY, Issue 2 2008SEI-WAN KIM We study how three interrelated phenomena,excess stock returns and risk relation, risk aversion, and asymmetric volatility movement,change over business cycles. Using an asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean model and a Markov switching model, we find that excess stock return increases and asymmetric volatility movement is weakened during boom periods. This suggests that investors become more risk-averse during boom periods (i.e., procyclical risk aversion), which we confirm using a calibration of a simple equilibrium model. (JEL C32, E32, G12) [source] THE CONSEQUENCES OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITYECONOMIC PAPERS: A JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY, Issue S1 2001MARK CROSBY First page of article [source] STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY, NEGATIVE AUTOCORRELATION AND THE CONSUMPTION,WEALTH RATIO: THE CASE OF CONSTANT FUNDAMENTALSPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2010Charles Ka Yui Leung Based on infinite horizon models, previous theoretical works show that the empirical stock price movement is not justified by the changes in dividends. The present paper provides a simple overlapping generations model with constant fundamentals in which the stock price displays volatility and negative autocorrelation even without changes in dividend. The horizon of the agents matters. In addition, as in recent empirical works, the aggregate consumption,wealth ratio ,predicts' the asset return. Thus, this framework may be useful in understanding different stylized facts in asset pricing. Directions for future research are also discussed. [source] UPSTREAM VOLATILITY IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: THE MACHINE TOOL INDUSTRY AS A CASE STUDYPRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2000EDWARD G. ANDERSON JR. Cyclicality is a well-known and accepted fact of life in market-driven economies. Less well known or understood, however, is the phenomenon of amplification as one looks "upstream" in the industrial supply chain. We examine the amplification phenomenon and its implications through the lens of one upstream industry that is notorious for the intensity of the business cycles it faces: the machine tool industry. Amplification of demand volatility in capital equipment supply chains, e. g., machine tools, is particularly large relative to that seen in distribution and component parts supply chains. We present a system dynamics simulation model to capture demand volatility amplification in capital supply chains. We explore the lead-time, inventory, production, productivity, and staffing implications of these dynamic forces. Several results stand out. First, volatility hurts productivity and lowers average worker experience. Second, even though machine tool builders can do little to reduce the volatility in their order streams through choice of forecast rule, a smoother forecasting policy will lead companies to retain more of their skilled work force. This retention of skilled employees is often cited as one of the advantages that European and Japanese companies have had relative to their U. S. competitors. Our results suggest some insights for supply chain design and management: downstream customers can do a great deal to reduce the volatility for upstream suppliers through their choice of order forecast rule. In particular, companies that use smoother forecasting policies tend to impose less of their own volatility upon their supply base and may consequently enjoy system-wide cost reduction. [source] FORECASTING STOCK INDEX VOLATILITY: COMPARING IMPLIED VOLATILITY AND THE INTRADAY HIGH,LOW PRICE RANGETHE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 2 2007Charles Corrado Abstract The intraday high,low price range offers volatility forecasts similarly efficient to high-quality implied volatility indexes published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) for four stock market indexes: S&P 500, S&P 100, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrials. Examination of in-sample and out-of-sample volatility forecasts reveals that neither implied volatility nor intraday high,low range volatility consistently outperforms the other. [source] SENSITIVITY OF INVESTOR REACTION TO MARKET DIRECTION AND VOLATILITY: DIVIDEND CHANGE ANNOUNCEMENTSTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 1 2005Diane Scott Docking Abstract We examine whether investor reactions are sensitive to the recent direction or volatility of underlying market movements. We find that dividend change announcements elicit a greater change in stock price when the nature of the news (good or bad) goes against the grain of the recent market direction during volatile times. For example, announcements to lower dividends elicit a significantly greater decrease in stock price when market returns have been up and more volatile. Similarly, announcements to raise dividends tends to elicit a greater increase in stock price when market returns have been normal or down and more volatile, although this latter tendency lacks statistical significance. We suggest an explanation for these results that combines the implications of a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model with behavioral considerations that link the responsiveness of investors to market direction and volatility. [source] DOES INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY AFFECT THE US DEMAND FOR HOUSING?THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 4 2010EVIDENCE FROM THE AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG METHOD This paper investigates empirically the effects of real interest rate volatility on demand for total housing and new housing in the USA. The investigation looks at monthly data from 1975 to 2006 using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to co-integration and the Hendry ,general-to-specific' causality test. Three different real rates are applied: mortgage, long term and short term. The results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between housing demand and its determinants including interest rate volatility. Results from the causality test indicate housing demand determinants (including interest rate volatility) cause demand for both total and new housing in the long run. [source] THE DECLINE IN THE VOLATILITY OF THE BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE UKTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2008CHRISTINA V. ATANASOVA We analyse the sources of the decline of business cycle volatility in the UK using a dynamic factor model that allows for the presence of a structural break in the conditional mean and variance of output, sales, income and unemployment. We augment the factor model with an economic component to investigate the role of structural changes and improved monetary policy in the volatility decline of the series. Our results suggest that the dominant cause for the observed volatility decline is the reduced variability of shocks. [source] FORECASTING VOLATILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEL INSTABILITYAUSTRALIAN & NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF STATISTICS, Issue 2 2010John M. Maheu Summary Recent advances in financial econometrics have allowed for the construction of efficient,ex post,measures of daily volatility. This paper investigates the importance of instability in models of realised volatility and their corresponding forecasts. Testing for model instability is conducted with a subsampling method. We show that removing structurally unstable data of a short duration has a negligible impact on the accuracy of conditional mean forecasts of volatility. In contrast, it does provide a substantial improvement in a model's forecast density of volatility. In addition, the forecasting performance improves, often dramatically, when we evaluate models on structurally stable data. [source] SYMMETRIC VERSUS ASYMMETRIC CONDITIONAL COVARIANCE FORECASTS: DOES IT PAY TO SWITCH?THE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 3 2007Susan Thorp Abstract Volatilities and correlations for equity markets rise more after negative returns shocks than after positive shocks. Allowing for these asymmetries in covariance forecasts decreases mean-variance portfolio risk and improves investor welfare. We compute optimal weights for international equity portfolios using predictions from asymmetric covariance forecasting models and a spectrum of expected returns. Investors who are moderately risk averse, have longer rebalancing horizons, and hold U.S. equities benefit most and may be willing to pay around 100 basis points annually to switch from symmetric to asymmetric forecasts. Accounting for asymmetry in both variances and correlations significantly lowers realized portfolio risk. [source] Modeling and Forecasting Realized VolatilityECONOMETRICA, Issue 2 2003Torben G. Andersen We provide a framework for integration of high,frequency intraday data into the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of daily and lower frequency return volatilities and return distributions. Building on the theory of continuous,time arbitrage,free price processes and the theory of quadratic variation, we develop formal links between realized volatility and the conditional covariance matrix. Next, using continuously recorded observations for the Deutschemark/Dollar and Yen/Dollar spot exchange rates, we find that forecasts from a simple long,memory Gaussian vector autoregression for the logarithmic daily realized volatilities perform admirably. Moreover, the vector autoregressive volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal,normal mixture distribution produces well,calibrated density forecasts of future returns, and correspondingly accurate quantile predictions. Our results hold promise for practical modeling and forecasting of the large covariance matrices relevant in asset pricing, asset allocation, and financial risk management applications. [source] Volatility, Stabilization and Union Wage-setting: The Effects of Monetary Policy on the ,Natural' Unemployment RateECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2002Luigi Bonatti In a unionized economy with nominal-wage contracts, the ,natural' (rational-expectations equilibrium) employment level is not invariant with respect to the stabilization rule followed by the monetary authority. This is because alternative monetary policies change the variance of the inflation rate (price level) relatively to the variance of some measure of economic activity (employment level), thereby influencing the trade-off desired by union members between the real wage and the probability of employment. Indeed, a more volatile employment level induces the (risk-neutral) union members to prefer a higher expected real wage. (J.E.L: E5, J5). [source] Consistent High-precision Volatility from High-frequency DataECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 2 2001Fulvio Corsi Estimates of daily volatility are investigated. Realized volatility can be computed from returns observed over time intervals of different sizes. For simple statistical reasons, volatility estimators based on high-frequency returns have been proposed, but such estimators are found to be strongly biased as compared to volatilities of daily returns. This bias originates from microstructure effects in the price formation. For foreign exchange, the relevant microstructure effect is the incoherent price formation, which leads to a strong negative first-order autocorrelation ,(1),40 per cent for tick-by-tick returns and to the volatility bias. On the basis of a simple theoretical model for foreign exchange data, the incoherent term can be filtered away from the tick-by-tick price series. With filtered prices, the daily volatility can be estimated using the information contained in high-frequency data, providing a high-precision measure of volatility at any time interval. (J.E.L.: C13, C22, C81). [source] A High-Frequency Investigation of the Interaction between Volatility and DAX ReturnsEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2010Philippe Masset G10; G12; G13 Abstract One of the most noticeable stylised facts in finance is that stock index returns are negatively correlated with changes in volatility. The economic rationale for the effect is still controversial. The competing explanations have different implications for the origin of the relationship: Are volatility changes induced by index movements, or inversely, does volatility drive index returns? To differentiate between the alternative hypotheses, we analyse the lead-lag relationship of option implied volatility and index return in Germany based on Granger causality tests and impulse-response functions. Our dataset consists of all transactions in DAX options and futures over the time period from 1995 to 2005. Analyzing returns over 5-minute intervals, we find that the relationship is return-driven in the sense that index returns Granger cause volatility changes. This causal relationship is statistically and economically significant and can be clearly separated from the contemporaneous correlation. The largest part of the implied volatility response occurs immediately, but we also observe a smaller retarded reaction for up to one hour. A volatility feedback effect is not discernible. If it exists, the stock market appears to correctly anticipate its importance for index returns. [source] The Dynamic Relation Between Returns and Idiosyncratic VolatilityFINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2006Xiaoquan Jiang We claim that regressing excess returns on one-lagged volatility provides only a limited picture of the dynamic effect of idiosyncratic risk, which tends to be persistent over time. By correcting for the serial correlation in idiosyncratic volatility, we find that idiosyncratic volatility has a significant positive effect. This finding seems robusrt for various firm size portfolios, sample periods, and measures of idiosyncratic risk. Our findings suggest stock markets mis-price idiosyncratic risk. There may be some measurement problems with idiosyncratic risk. There may be some measurement problems with idiosyncratic risk that could be related to nondiversifiable risk. [source] Interest Rate Volatility Prior to Monetary Union under Alternative Pre-Switch RegimesGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2003Bernd Wilfling Interest rate volatility; term structure; exchange rate arrangements; intervention policy; stochastic processes Abstract. The volatility of interest rates is relevant for many financial applications. Under realistic assumptions the term structure of interest rate differentials provides an important predictor of the term structure of interest rates. This paper derives the term structure of differentials in a situation in which two open economies plan to enter a monetary union in the future. Two systems of floating exchange rates prior to the union are considered, namely a free-float and a managed-float regime. The volatility processes of arbitrary-term differentials under the respective pre-switch arrangements are compared. The paper elaborates the singularity of extremely short-term (i.e. instantaneous) interest rates under extensive leaning-against-the-wind interventions and discusses policy issues. [source] Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2007Nicholas Apergis This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy and its volatility affect real economic activity through their effect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy (the classical dichotomy) or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand (new Keynesian or new classical theories). Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy and its volatility affect the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through their effect on total factor productivity and its volatility. Total factor productivity provides an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy and its volatility exert a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of reducing short-run swings in monetary policy variables as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy during the so-called ,Great Moderation' in US gross domestic product volatility beginning in the early 1980s. [source] Liquidity, Volatility and Equity Trading Costs Across Countries and Over TimeINTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2001Ian Domowitz Actual investment performance reflects the underlying strategy of the portfolio manager and the execution costs incurred in realizing those objectives. Execution costs, especially in illiquid markets, can dramatically reduce the notional return to an investment strategy. This paper examines the interactions between cost, liquidity and volatility, and analyses their determinants using panel data for 42 countries from September 1996 to December 1998. We document wide variation in trading costs across countries; emerging markets, in particular, have significantly higher trading costs even after correcting for factors such as market capitalization and volatility. We analyse the inter-relationships between turnover, equity trading costs and volatility, and investigate the impact of these variables on equity returns. In particular, we show that increased volatility, acting through costs, reduces a portfolio's expected return. However, higher volatility reduces turnover also, mitigating the actual impact of higher costs on returns. Further, turnover is inversely related to trading costs, providing a possible explanation for the increase in turnover in recent years. The results demonstrate that the composition of global efficient portfolios can change dramatically when cost and turnover are taken into account. [source] The Impact of Foreign Equity Ownership on Emerging Market Share Price VolatilityINTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2000Mark Coppejans We ask whether foreign equity ownership affects the stability of share prices in an emerging economy. We address the effect of ownership restrictions exogenously imposed on stock ownership and the impact of introducing or widening foreign ownership through cross-listing. A methodology for variance ratio analysis is introduced that corrects for liquidity and volume differences across stock series experiencing different degrees of foreign ownership. We find that foreign ownership does not affect volatility in the absence of cross-listing. Foreign ownership introduced or accompanied by cross-listing of a stock series raises the variance of returns. This effect is found to operate in part through increases in volume traded on the domestic market following the listing, and through an identifiable increase in the volatility of information net of volume effects. [source] Volatility of changes in G-5 exchange rates and its market transmission mechanismINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2002Bwo-Nung Huang Abstract This paper studies the transmission mechanism of G-5 exchange rate changes within each market and across the three major markets: London, New York and Tokyo. It is found that the volatility in both the London and New York markets leads that of Tokyo. In addition, the New York market slightly leads the London market in its volatility. After the Euro monetary system crisis, the frequencies of both the volatility spillover effect from London to New York and mutual feedback phenomena have increased. Furthermore, the volatility spillover effects from both London and New York to Tokyo have been on the rise after the Asian financial debacle. Within the framework of the causality model, we find better forecasting performance in predicting G-5 exchange rates across the three markets. It outperforms the traditional ARMA model in terms of both in- and out-sample forecasting. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The Effect of Short Sale Constraint Removal on Volatility in the Presence of Heterogeneous Beliefs,INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCE, Issue 3-4 2003Alan Kraus ABSTRACT We evaluate the effect of short sale constraint removal on a stock market. The intuition is derived from simple geometry. We show that the price curve as a function of the uncertain future payoff changes when investors are able to act on the belief that the price of the share is relatively high. In a very simple model we show that volatility can either increase or decrease, depending on the variability of news about final payoffs. As an empirical illustration, we consider data from the Israeli stock market. The data show that volatility increased following the initiation of index options, consistent with the fact that short sales were prohibited in Israel when index options were introduced. [source] Testing Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Volatility, Random Jumps and Stochastic Interest RatesINTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCE, Issue 3-4 2002George J. Jiang In this paper, we propose a parsimonious GMM estimation and testing procedure for continuous-time option pricing models with stochastic volatility, random jump and stochastic interest rate. Statistical tests are performed on both the underlying asset return model and the risk-neutral option pricing model. Firstly, the underlying asset return models are estimated using GMM with valid statistical tests for model specification. Secondly, the preference related parameters in the risk-neutral distribution are estimated from observed option prices. Our findings confirm that the implied risk premiums for stochastic volatility, random jump and interest rate are overall positive and varying over time. However, the estimated risk-neutral processes are not unique, suggesting a segmented option market. In particular, the deep ITM call (or deep OTM put) options are clearly priced with higher risk premiums than the deep OTM call (or deep ITM put) options. Finally, while stochastic volatility tends to better price long-term options, random jump tends to price the short-term options better, and option pricing based on multiple risk-neutral distributions significantly outperforms that based on a single risk-neutral distribution. [source] Exchange Rate Volatility and Democratization in Emerging Market CountriesINTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 2 2003Jude C. Hays We examine some of the consequences of financial globalization for democratization in emerging market economies by focusing on the currency markets of four Asian countries at different stages of democratic development. Using political data of various kinds,including a new events data series,and the Markov regime switching model from empirical macroeconomics, we show that in young and incipient democracies politics continuously causes changes in the probability of experiencing two different currency market equilibria: a high volatility "contagion" regime and a low volatility "fundamentals" regime. The kind of political events that affect currency market equilibration varies cross-nationally depending on the degree to which the polity of a country is democratic and its policymaking transparent. The results help us better gauge how and the extent to which democratization is compatible with financial globalization. [source] Estimating the Value of Employee Stock Option Portfolios and Their Sensitivities to Price and VolatilityJOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 3 2002John Core The costs associated with compiling data on employee stock option portfolios is a substantial obstacle in investigating the impact of stock options on managerial incentives, accounting choice, financing decisions, and the valuation of equity. We present an accurate method of estimating option portfolio value and the sensitivities of option portfolio value to stock price and stock-return volatility that is easily implemented using data from only the current year's proxy statement or annual report. This method can be applied to either executive stock option portfolios or to firm-wide option plans. In broad samples of actual and simulated CEO option portfolios, we show that these proxies capture more than 99% of the variation in option portfolio value and sensitivities. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the degree of bias in these proxies varies with option portfolio characteristics, and is most severe in samples of CEOs with a large proportion of out-of-the-money options. However, the proxies' explanatory power remains above 95% in all subsamples. [source] Impacts of Market Reform on Spatial Volatility of Maize Prices in TanzaniaJOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2008Fredy T. M. Kilima C33; D40; O12; O55 Abstract Maize is one of the major staples and cash crops for many Tanzanians. Excessive volatility of maize prices destabilises farm income in maize-growing regions and is likely to jeopardise nutrition and investment in many poor rural communities. This study investigates whether market reform policies in Tanzania have increased the volatility of maize prices, and identifies regional characteristics that can be attributed to the spatial price volatility. To achieve the objectives, an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (ARCH-M) model is developed and estimated in this study. Results show that the reforms have increased farm-gate prices and overall price volatility. Maize prices are lower in surplus and less developed regions than those in deficit and developed regions. Results also show that the developed and maize-deficit regions, and regions bordering other countries have experienced less volatile prices than less developed, maize-surplus and non-bordering regions. Our findings indicate that investments in communication and transportation infrastructures from government and donor countries are likely to increase inter-regional and international trade, thereby reducing the spatial price volatility in Tanzanian maize prices in the long run. [source] How Persistent is Stock Return Volatility?JOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 5-6 2007An Answer with Markov Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility Models Abstract:, We propose generalised stochastic volatility models with Markov regime changing state equations (SVMRS) to investigate the important properties of volatility in stock returns, specifically high persistence and smoothness. The model suggests that volatility is far less persistent and smooth than the conventional GARCH or stochastic volatility. Persistent short regimes are more likely to occur when volatility is low, while far less persistence is likely to be observed in high volatility regimes. Comparison with different classes of volatility supports the SVMRS as an appropriate proxy volatility measure. Our results indicate that volatility could be far more difficult to estimate and forecast than is generally believed. [source] Intra Day Bid-Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Recent Empirical Evidence from the London Stock ExchangeJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 5-6 2004Charlie X. Cai With the benefit of very high frequency (25 million 1 minute observations) and recent data (2001) for the UK, this paper explores a number of intra day patterns of stock market behaviour. More specifically, a distinct reverse J shaped bid-ask spread pattern is noted for SETS securities, a declining bid-ask spread pattern for non-SETS securities, a two hump pattern for trading volume and a U-shaped pattern for returns volatility for all securities. In terms of complementing the existing literature, the paper shows that differences in trading systems may affect the bid-ask spread patterns, while differences in market environments (i.e. US and UK markets) seems to affect the trading volume pattern. The paper suggests avenues for future research, in particular, the need to consider what factors are significant in determining intra day patterns for different trading systems and the need for additional cross-market comparisons to identify how institutional factors affect the behaviour of investors on an intra day basis. [source] Implied Standard Deviations and Post-earnings Announcement VolatilityJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 3-4 2002Daniella Acker This paper investigates volatility increases following annual earnings announcements. Standard deviations implied by options prices are used to show that announcements of bad news result in a lower volatility increase than those of good news, and delay the increase by a day. Reports that are difficult to interpret also delay the volatility increase. This delay is incremental to that caused by reporting bad news, although the effect of bad news on slowing down the reaction time is dominant. It is argued that the delays reflect market uncertainty about the implications of the news. [source] The Determinants of Implied Volatility: A Test Using LIFFE Option PricesJOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 7-8 2000L. Copeland This paper presents and tests a model of the volatility of individual companies' stocks, using implied volatilities derived from option prices. The data comes from traded options quoted on the London International Financial Futures Exchange. The model relates equity volatilities to corporate earnings announcements, interest-rate volatility and to four determining variables representing leverage, the degree of fixed-rate debt, asset duration and cash flow inflation indexation. The model predicts that equity volatility is positively related to duration and leverage and negatively related to the degree of inflation indexation and the proportion of fixed-rate debt in the capital structure. Empirical results suggest that duration, the proportion of fixed-rate debt, and leverage are significantly related to implied volatility. Regressions using all four determining variables explain approximately 30% of the cross-sectional variation in volatility. Time series tests confirm an expected drop in volatility shortly after the earnings announcement and in most cases a positive relationship between the volatility of the stock and the volatility of interest rates. [source] Forecasting volatility by means of threshold modelsJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 5 2007M. Pilar Muñoz Abstract The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out-of-sample forecasting ability of the SETAR-Threshold GARCH (SETAR-TGARCH) and the SETAR-Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR-THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ,true' underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR-THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||